The euro crisis: ten roots, but fewer solutions. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/17, October 2012

Many factors have contributed to the euro crisis. Some have been addressed by policymakers, even if belatedly, and European Union member states have been willing to improve the functioning of the euro area by agreeing to relinquish national sovereignty in some important areas. However, the most pressing issue threatening the integrity, even the existence, of the euro, has not been addressed: the deepening economic contraction in southern euro-area member states. The common interest lies in preserving the integrity of the euro area and in offering these countries improved prospects. Domestic structural reform and appropriate fiscal consolidation, wage increases and slower fiscal consolidation in economically stronger euro-area countries, a weaker euro exchange rate, debt restructuring and an investment programme should be part of the arsenal. In the medium term, more institutional change will be necessary to complement the planned overhaul of the euro area institutional framework. This will include the deployment of a euro-area economic stabilising tool, managing the overall fiscal stance of the euro area, some form of Eurobonds and measures to make euro-area level decision making bodies more effective and democratically legitimate.

On the effectiveness and legitimacy of EU economic policies. Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/04, 9 November 2012

For markets, European economic governance faces a crisis of policy effectiveness, while for citizens the European Union faces a democratic legitimacy crisis. The introduction of the European Semester economic policy surveillance system has not resolved these problems. Policy guidance deriving from the Semester is not focused enough on areas of significant spillovers and on problem countries, and national compliance is often procedural rather than actual. This brings into question both the Semester’s effectiveness and the democratic legitimacy of the EU’s new intervention rights, which allow intrusion into national policy-making.

Predation in Ground-Nesting Birds: an Experimental Study Using Natural Egg-Color Variation

We tested the hypothesis that cryptically colored eggs would suffer less predation than conspicuous eggs in the ground-nesting red-legged partridge, Alectoris rufa. We used A. rufa as a model species because it has a wide range of natural egg colors, the eggs are widely available from breeding farms, and nests are easily mimicked because they are scrapes containing no vegetation. The study was conducted in the spring of 2001 in forest and fallow fields of central Spain in Castilla La Mancha, Ciudad Real. We used 384 clutches of natural eggs that were white, white spotted, brown, or brown spotted. Within clutches, eggs were consistent in color and size; among clutches, color differences were distributed across habitats. Clutches were checked once after 2 wk of exposure. Cryptic coloration had a survival advantage that was dependent on the local suite of predators. Rodent predation was nonselective with respect to clutch color; however, avian predation was significantly higher for conspicuous clutches. In addition, there was an interaction of landscape and egg color for avian predation. In forest landscapes, the clutches with highest survival were brown spotted, whereas in fallow landscapes, brown and brown spotted clutches had higher survival than white and white potted clutches. Thus, both the predator suite and the landscape had significant effects on the value of cryptic egg coloration. Our study is relevant for conservationists and managers in charge of restocking programs in hunting areas. The release of other partridge species or their hybrids could result in hybridization with wild partridges, potentially leading to nonoptimal clutch pigmentation and reduced survival of the native species. We therefore recommend that local authorities, managers, and conservationists be cautious with the use of alien species and hybrids and release only autochthonous species of partridges within their natural ranges.

Flight initiation distances of nesting Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) in response to human disturbance

Birds frequently interact with people when they occur in coupled human-ecological or anthropogenic environments, which makes the protection of legally protected species a challenge. Flight initiation distances (FIDs) are often used to inform development of appropriate buffer distances required for human exclusion zones used to protect birds nesting in anthropogenic landscapes. Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) are protected by the Endangered Species Act in the United States and often nest in areas used by humans. Studies evaluating Piping Plover FIDs are limited and implementation of exclusion zones has been inconsistent across the species’ range. We measured Piping Plover response and FIDs to naturally occurring stimuli on public beaches at Lake McConaughy, Nebraska, USA. Piping Plover FIDs differed most by stimulus class (vehicle, human, dog, human with dog), Julian day, and hour of day. Piping Plover FIDs were greatest for dog and human with dog compared to humans and vehicles. For all types of stimuli, Piping Plover FIDs decreased over time during the nesting season and increased slightly during each day. In the majority of instances in which Piping Plovers left their nests, return times to the nest were relatively short (less than three minutes). These results suggest Piping Plovers become habituated to the presence of human-related stimuli over the course of a nesting season, but other explanations such as parental investment and risk allocation cannot be excluded. Additional research and improved guidance regarding the implementation of exclusion zones is needed so managers can implement effective protection programs in anthropogenic landscapes.

Dust production and the release of iron oxides resulting from the aeolian abrasion of natural dune sands

Global dust trajectories indicate that significant quantities of aeolian-transported iron oxides originate in contemporary dryland areas. One potential source is the iron-rich clay coatings that characterize many sand-sized particles in desert dunefields. This paper uses laboratory experiments to determine the rate at which these coatings can be removed from dune sands by aeolian abrasion. The coatings impart a red colour to the grains to which previous researchers have assigned variable geomorphological significance. The quantities or iron removed during a 120 hour abrasion experiment are small (99 mg kg(-1)) and difficult to detect by eye; however, high resolution spectroscopy clearly indicates that ferric oxides are released during abrasion and the reflectance of the particles alters. One of the products of aeolian abrasion is fine particles (<10 mum diameter) with the potential for long distance transport. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Nitrate transport in Chalk catchments: monitoring, modelling and policy implications

Rising nitrate levels have been observed in UK Chalk catchments in recent decades, with concentrations now approaching or exceeding legislated maximum values in many areas. In response, strategies seeking to contain concentrations through appropriate land management are now in place. However, there is an increasing consensus that Chalk systems, a predominant landscape type over England and indeed northwest Europe, can retard decades of prior nitrate loading within their deep unsaturated zones. Current levels may not fully reflect the long-term impact of present-day practices, and stringent land management controls may not be enough to avert further medium-term rises. This paper discusses these issues in the context of the EU Water Framework Directive, drawing on data from recent experimental work and a new model (INCA-Chalk) that allows the impacts of different land use management practices to be explored. Results strongly imply that timelines for water quality improvement demanded by the Water Framework directive are not realistic for the Chalk, and give an indication of time-scales over which improvements might be achieved. However, important unresolved scientific issues remain, and further monitoring and targeted data collection is recommended to reduce prediction uncertainties and allow cost effective strategies for mitigation to be designed and implemented. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AIDS, mobility and commercial sex in Ethiopia: Implications for policy

Since the emergence of the AIDS pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa, male mobility has been highlighted as one of the reasons for the spread of the disease with men employing the services of commercial sex workers while away from home. However, sex workers' mobility and the implications of this for their access to prevention services, has largely been ignored. This paper, based on multi-method qualitative research with 60 young sex workers in two Ethiopian towns, reveals that sex workers are highly mobile, moving in order to attract a wider or different client base, for adventure and to conceal illnesses which might be associated with AIDS. In addition, sex workers are affected by restrictions on their movements, with girls working in bars and red-light areas having little free time to access projects. This paper advocates that policy approaches need to take account of this mobility in three ways: first, by exploring ways for girls to access information and maintain contact with support structures while moving between places of work; second, by building the capacity of sex workers to take greater control over decision-making in their day-to-day lives and third, by developing outreach strategies for taking services into bars and red-light areas.

Orde Wingate and the Special Night Squads: A Feasible Policy for Counter-Terrorism?

This article analyses the counter-terrorist operations carried out by Captain (later Major General) Orde Wingate in Palestine in 1938, and considers whether these might inform current operations. Wingate's Special Night Squads were formed from British soldiers and Jewish police specifically to counter terrorist and sabotage attacks. Their approach escalated from interdicting terrorist gangs to pre-emptive attacks on suspected terrorist sanctuaries to reprisal attacks after terrorist atrocities. They continued the British practice of using irregular units in counter-insurgency, which was sustained into the postwar era and contributed to the evolution of British Special Forces. Wingate's methods proved effective in pacifying terrorist-infested areas and could be applied again, but only in the face of 'friction' arising from changes in cultural attitudes since the 1930s, and from the political-strategic context of post-2001 counter-insurgent and counter-terrorist operations. In some cases, however, public opinion might not preclude the use of some of Wingate's techniques.

Quantifying the effect of buffer zones, crop areas and spatial aggregation on the externalities of genetically modified crops at landscape level

The development of genetically modified (GM) crops has led the European Union (EU) to put forward the concept of 'coexistence' to give fanners the freedom to plant both conventional and GM varieties. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge in the market, 'contamination' by GM pollen would generate a negative externality to conventional growers. It is therefore important to assess the effect of different 'policy variables'on the magnitude of the externality to identify suitable policies to manage coexistence. In this paper, taking GM herbicide tolerant oilseed rape as a model crop, we start from the model developed in Ceddia et al. [Ceddia, M.G., Bartlett, M., Perrings, C., 2007. Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: the case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Ecol. Modell. 205, pp. 169-180] use a Monte Carlo experiment to generate data and then estimate the effect of the number of GM and conventional fields, width of buffer areas and the degree of spatial aggregation (i.e. the 'policy variables') on the magnitude of the externality at the landscape level. To represent realistic conditions in agricultural production, we assume that detection of GM material in conventional produce might occur at the field level (no grain mixing occurs) or at the silos level (where grain mixing from different fields in the landscape occurs). In the former case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on the number of conventional fields with average transgenic presence above a certain threshold. In the latter case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on whether the average transgenic presence across all conventional fields exceeds the threshold. In order to quantify the effect of the relevant' policy variables', we compute the marginal effects and the elasticities. Our results show that when relying on marginal effects to assess the impact of the different 'policy variables', spatial aggregation is far more important when transgenic material is detected at field level, corroborating previous research. However, when elasticity is used, the effectiveness of spatial aggregation in reducing the externality is almost identical whether detection occurs at field level or at silos level. Our results show also that the area planted with GM is the most important 'policy variable' in affecting the externality to conventional growers and that buffer areas on conventional fields are more effective than those on GM fields. The implications of the results for the coexistence policies in the EU are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A field experiment to recreate species rich hay meadows using regional seed mixtures

Species rich semi-natural grasslands are an important but threatened habitat throughout Europe and much of the former area has been lost since the 1950s. However, in some countries large areas have been preserved and the demand for meadow recreation by sowing seed mixtures is increasing. In the White Carpathians Protected Landscape Area (Czech Republic) the use of commercial seed mixtures is undesirable and the use of regional mixtures has been investigated. The costs for seeding large areas are high and lower cost techniques are needed. In 1999 a field experiment was set up to investigate the establishment of hay meadow vegetation comparing sowing a regional mixture all over a plot with sowing narrow 2.5 In strips of regional seed mixtures into a matrix of a commercial grass mixture or into natural regeneration. The results after five seasons showed good establishment of the sown species in the meadow treatment. Spread of sown species from the sown strips into the surrounding matrix occurred but the cover of species was lower in the commercial grass matrix compared with the natural regeneration matrix. Colonisation of some plots by unsown desirable grassland species from adjacent grassland habitats also occurred, but more species colonised the natural regeneration matrix than the commercial grasses or the sown meadow matrix itself. Overall, the results indicate that, in appropriate situations, sown strips can provide a lower cost but slower and longer-term alternative to field scale sowing of regional seed mixtures for recreation of hay meadow vegetation. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of foot and mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled

Identifying important endemic areas using ecoregions: birds and mammals in the Indo-Pacific

Concentrations of large numbers of endemic species have been singled out in prioritization exercises as significant areas for global biodiversity conservation. This paper describes bird and mammal endemicity in Indo-Pacific ecoregions. An ecoregion is a relatively large unit of land or water that contains a distinct assemblage of natural communities. We prioritize 133 ecoregions according to their levels of endemicity, and explain how variables such as biome type, whether the ecoregion is on an island or continental mass, montane or non-montane, correlate with the proportion of the total species assemblage that are endemic. Following an exploratory principal components analysis we classify all ecoregions according to the relationship between numbers of endemics and overall species richness. Endemicity is negatively correlated with species richness. We show that plotting the logit transformation of the endemicity of birds and mammals against log of species richness is a more effective and useful way of identifying important ecoregions than simply ordering ecoregions by the proportion of endemic species, or any other single measure. The plot, divided into 16 regions corresponding to the quartiles of the two variables, was used to identify ecoregions of high conservation value. These are the ecoregions with the highest endemicity and lowest species richness. Further analysis shows that island and montane ecoregions, regardless of their biome type, are by far the most important for endemic species.

Making ecological science policy relevant: issues of scale and disciplinary integration

In this paper, we ask why so much ecological scientific research does not have a greater policy impact in the UK. We argue that there are two potentially important and related reasons for this failing. First, much current ecological science is not being conducted at a scale that is readily meaningful to policy-makers. Second, to make much of this research policy-relevant requires collaborative interdisciplinary research between ecologists and social scientists. However, the challenge of undertaking useful interdisciplinary research only re-emphasises the problems of scale: ecologists and social scientists traditionally frame their research questions at different scales and consider different facets of natural resource management, setting different objectives and using different language. We argue that if applied ecological research is to have greater impact in informing environmental policy, much greater attention needs to be given to the scale of the research efforts as well as to the interaction with social scientists. Such an approach requires an adjustment in existing research and funding infrastructures.