Pitfalls in the modeling of forward-looking price setting and investment decisions

The present paper makes progress in explaining the role of capital for inflation and output dynamics. We followWoodford (2003, Ch. 5) in assuming Calvo pricing combined with a convex capital adjustment cost at the firm level. Our main result is that capital accumulation affects inflation dynamics primarily through its impact on the marginal cost. This mechanism is much simpler than the one implied by the analysis in Woodford's text. The reason is that his analysis suffers from a conceptual mistake, as we show. The latter obscures the economic mechanism through which capital affects inflation and output dynamics in the Calvo model, as discussed in Woodford (2004).

Inventory-routing model, for a multi-period problem with stochastic and deterministic demand

The need for integration in the supply chain management leads us to considerthe coordination of two logistic planning functions: transportation andinventory. The coordination of these activities can be an extremely importantsource of competitive advantage in the supply chain management. The battle forcost reduction can pass through the equilibrium of transportation versusinventory managing costs. In this work, we study the specific case of aninventory-routing problem for a week planning period with different types ofdemand. A heuristic methodology, based on the Iterated Local Search, isproposed to solve the Multi-Period Inventory Routing Problem with stochasticand deterministic demand.

A health behaviour cross-sectional study of immigrants and non-immigrants in a Swiss urban general-practice setting.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about smoking, unhealthy use of alcohol, and risk behaviours for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in immigrants from developed and developing countries. METHOD: We performed a cross-sectional study of 400 patients who consulted an academic emergency care centre at a Swiss university hospital. The odds ratios for having one or more risk behaviours were adjusted for age, gender, and education level. RESULTS: Immigrants from developing countries were less likely to use alcohol in an unhealthy manner (OR = 0.35, 95% CI 0.22-0.57) or practise risk behaviours for STDs (OR = 0.31, 95% CI 0.13-0.74). They were also less likely to have any of the three studied risk behaviours (OR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.5-4.3). DISCUSSION: In addition to the usual determinants, health behaviours are also associated with origin; distinguishing between immigrants from developing and developed countries is useful in clinical settings. Surprisingly, patients from developing countries tend to possess several protective characteristics.

Optimization of multiclass queueing networks with changeover times via the achievable region method: Part II, the multi-station case

We address the problem of scheduling a multi-station multiclassqueueing network (MQNET) with server changeover times to minimizesteady-state mean job holding costs. We present new lower boundson the best achievable cost that emerge as the values ofmathematical programming problems (linear, semidefinite, andconvex) over relaxed formulations of the system's achievableperformance region. The constraints on achievable performancedefining these formulations are obtained by formulatingsystem's equilibrium relations. Our contributions include: (1) aflow conservation interpretation and closed formulae for theconstraints previously derived by the potential function method;(2) new work decomposition laws for MQNETs; (3) new constraints(linear, convex, and semidefinite) on the performance region offirst and second moments of queue lengths for MQNETs; (4) a fastbound for a MQNET with N customer classes computed in N steps; (5)two heuristic scheduling policies: a priority-index policy, anda policy extracted from the solution of a linear programmingrelaxation.

Measurement of ß-tryptase in postmortem serum, pericardial fluid, urine and vitreous humor in forensic setting

L'activation des mastocytes se produit dans plusieurs conditions pathologiques et est principalement observée chez des patients développant une réaction anaphylactique. Dans la pratique clinique, la mesure de l'histamine et de ses métabolites dans le plasma et dans l'urine du patient peut être effectuée et montre parfois des résultats aussi précis que la mesure de la beta-tryptase dans le sang lorsqu'il est nécessaire de confirmer une activation mastocytaire. En revanche, la mesure de la beta tryptase dans l'urine dans un but diagnostic n'a que rarement été effectuée sur des personnes vivantes et a montré des résultats contradictoires. Dans le domaine de la médecine légale, la mesure de la beta-tryptase dans un but diagnostic est effectuée dans le sérum postmortem obtenu à partir de sang prélevé au niveau fémoral. Cependant, le sang peut être partiellement ou complètement indisponible dans certains cas spécifiques, dans les autopsies de nourrissons ou de corps sévèrement mutilés par exemple. Un des buts de notre étude est d'évaluer la pertinence de la mesure de la beta-tryptase dans des échantillons biologiques alternatifs, à savoir dans l'urine, l'humeur vitrée et le liquide péricardique. Pour cela nous avons sélectionné 94 cas d'autopsies comprenant 6 cas de réaction anaphylactique suite à l'administration de produits de contraste radiologique, 10 cas d'hypothermie, 10 cas d'acidocétose diabétique, 10 cas de suicide par arme à feu, 18 cas de décès consécutif à une injection d'héroïne, 10 cas de décès traumatiques, 10 cas de mort subite avec peu ou pas d'athérosclérose coronarienne, 10 cas de décès avec une athérosclérose coronarienne sévère mais sans signe d'infarctus du myocarde et 10 cas de décès consécutif à un infarctus du myocarde avec une athérosclérose coronarienne sévère. Dans tous les cas de réaction anaphylactique suite à l'administration de produit de contraste radiologique, les concentrations de beta-tryptase, mesurées dans le sérum postmortem et dans le liquide péricardique, ont montré des valeurs plus élevées que le seuil clinique de référence (11 ng/l) et le seuil postmortem de référence (45 ng/l). La concentration de beta-tryptase mesurée dans l'urine et l'humeur vitrée a montré des valeurs inférieures au seuil clinique dans tous les cas de notre étude. La mesure de la concentration de beta tryptase dans le liquide péricardique semble donc une alternative valable à la mesure dans le sérum postmortem, lorsque le sang fémoral n'est pas disponible durant l'autopsie, afin de poser un diagnostic de réaction anaphylactique.

Whole brain radiotherapy with a conformational external beam radiation boost for lung cancer patients with 1-3 brain metastasis: a multi institutional study.

BACKGROUND: To determine the outcome of patients with brain metastasis (BM) from lung cancer treated with an external beam radiotherapy boost (RTB) after whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). METHODS: A total of 53 BM patients with lung cancer were treated sequentially with WBRT and RTB between 1996 and 2008 according to our institutional protocol. Mean age was 58.8 years. The median KPS was 90. Median recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and graded prognostic assessment (GPA) grouping were 2 and 2.5, respectively. Surgery was performed on 38 (71%) patients. The median number of BM was 1 (range, 1-3). Median WBRT and RTB combined dose was 39 Gy (range, 37.5-54). Median follow-up was 12.0 months. RESULTS: During the period of follow-up, 37 (70%) patients died. The median overall survival (OS) was 14.5 months. Only 13 patients failed in the brain. The majority of patients (n = 29) failed distantly. The 1-year OS, -local control, extracranial failure rates were 61.2%, 75.2% and 60.8%, respectively. On univariate analysis, improved OS was found to be significantly associated with total dose (< or = 39 Gy vs. > 39 Gy; p < 0.01), age < 65 (p < 0.01), absence of extracranial metastasis (p < 0.01), GPA > or = 2.5 (p = 0.01), KPS > or = 90 (p = 0.01), and RPA < 2 (p = 0.04). On multivariate analysis, total dose (p < 0.01) and the absence of extracranial metastasis (p = 0.03) retained statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of lung cancer patients treated with WBRT and RTB progressed extracranially. There might be a subgroup of younger patients with good performance status and no extracranial disease who may benefit from dose escalation after WBRT to the metastatic site.

Multi-stage garnet in the internal Brianconnais basement (Ambin massif, Savoy): New petrological constraints on the blueschist-facies metamorphism in the Western Alps and tectonic implications

Three types of garnet have been distinguished in pelitic schists from an epidote-blueschist-facies unit of the Ambin and South Vanoise Brianconnais massifs on the basis of texture, chemical zoning and mineral inclusion characterization. Type-1 garnet cores with high Mn/Ca ratios are interpreted as pre-Alpine relicts, whereas Type-1 garnet rims, Type-2 inclusion-rich porphyroblasts and smaller Type-3 garnets are Alpine. The latter are all characterized by low Mn/Ca ratios and a coexisting mineral assemblage of blue amphibole, high-Si phengite, epidote and quartz. Prograde growth conditions during Alpine D-1 high-pressure (HP) metamorphism are recorded by a decrease in Mn and increase in Fe (+/-Ca) in the Type-2 garnets, culminating in peak P-T conditions of 14-16 kbar and 500degreesC in the deepest parts of the Ambin dome. The multistage growth history of Type-1 garnets indicates a polymetamorphic history for the Ambin and South Vanoise massifs; unfortunately, no age constraints are available. The new metamorphic constraints on the Alpine event in the massifs define a metamorphic T `gap' between them and their surrounding cover (Brianconnais and upper Schistes Lustres units), which experienced metamorphism only in the stability field of carpholite-lawsonite (T < 400degreesC). These data and supporting structural studies confirm that the Ambin and South Vanoise massifs are slices of `eclogitized' continental crust tectonically extruded within the Schistes Lustres units and Brianconnais covers. The corresponding tectonic contacts with top-to-east movement are responsible for the juxtaposition of lower-grade metamorphic units on the Ambin and South Vanoise massifs.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Impact of physical activity on energy balance, food intake and choice in normal weight and obese children in the setting of acute social stress: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Psychological stress negatively influences food intake and food choices, thereby contributing to the development of childhood obesity. Physical activity can also moderate eating behavior and influence calorie intake. However, it is unknown if acute physical activity influences food intake and overall energy balance after acute stress exposure in children. We therefore investigated the impact of acute physical activity on overall energy balance (food intake minus energy expenditure), food intake, and choice in the setting of acute social stress in normal weight (NW) and overweight/obese (OW/OB) children as well as the impact of psychological risk factors. METHOD: After receiving written consent from their parents, 26 NW (BMI < 90(th) percentile) and 24 7-to 11-year-old OW (n = 5)/OB (n = 19, BMI ≥ 90(th) percentile) children were randomly allocated using computer-generated numbers (1:1, after stratification for weight status) to acute moderate physical or to sedentary activity for 30 min. Afterwards, all children were exposed to an acute social stressor. Children and their parents completed self-report questionnaires. At the end of the stressor, children were allowed to eat freely from a range of 12 different foods (6 sweet/6 salty; each of low/high caloric density). Energy balance, food intake/choice and obesity-related psychological risk factors were assessed. RESULTS: Lower overall energy balance (p = 0.019) and a decreased choice of low density salty foods (p < 0.001) in NW children compared with OW/OB children was found after acute moderate physical activity but not sedentary activity. Independent of their allocation, OW/OB children ate more high density salty foods (104 kcal (34 to 173), p = 0.004) following stress. They scored higher on impulsive behavior (p = 0.005), restrained eating (p < 0.001) and parental corporal punishment (p = 0.03), but these psychological factors were not related to stress-induced food intake/choice. Positive parenting tended to be related to lower intake of sweet high density food (-132 kcal, -277 to 2, p = 0.054). CONCLUSIONS: In the setting of stress, acute moderate physical activity can address energy balance in children, a benefit which is especially pronounced in the OW/OB. Positive parenting may act as a protective factor preventing stress-induced eating of comfort food. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT01693926 The study was a pilot study of a project funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (CRSII3_147673).

Setting standards: Information accumulation in development

We propose a model in which economic relations and institutions in advancedand less developed economies differ as these societies have access to different amounts of information. This lack of information makes it hard to give the right incentives to managers and entrepreneurs. We argue that differences in the amount of information arise because of the differences in the scale of activities in rich and poor economies; namely, there is too little repetition of similar activities in pooreconomies, thus insufficient information to set the appropriate standards for firm performance. Our model predicts a number of institutional and structural transformations as the economy accumulates capital and information.

Modeling complex wells with the multi-scale finite-volume method

In this paper, an extension of the multi-scale finite-volume (MSFV) method is devised, which allows to Simulate flow and transport in reservoirs with complex well configurations. The new framework fits nicely into the data Structure of the original MSFV method,and has the important property that large patches covering the whole well are not required. For each well. an additional degree of freedom is introduced. While the treatment of pressure-constraint wells is trivial (the well-bore reference pressure is explicitly specified), additional equations have to be solved to obtain the unknown well-bore pressure of rate-constraint wells. Numerical Simulations of test cases with multiple complex wells demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to capture the interference between the various wells and the reservoir accurately. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quality assessment of cardiovascular magnetic resonance in the setting of the European CMR registry: description and validation of standardized criteria.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has become an important diagnostic imaging modality in cardiovascular medicine. However, insufficient image quality may compromise its diagnostic accuracy. We aimed to describe and validate standardized criteria to evaluate a) cine steady-state free precession (SSFP), b) late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), and c) stress first-pass perfusion images. These criteria will serve for quality assessment in the setting of the Euro-CMR registry. METHODS: Thirty-five qualitative criteria were defined (scores 0-3) with lower scores indicating better image quality. In addition, quantitative parameters were measured yielding 2 additional quality criteria, i.e. signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of non-infarcted myocardium (as a measure of correct signal nulling of healthy myocardium) for LGE and % signal increase during contrast medium first-pass for perfusion images. These qualitative and quantitative criteria were assessed in a total of 90 patients (60 patients scanned at our own institution at 1.5T (n=30) and 3T (n=30) and in 30 patients randomly chosen from the Euro-CMR registry examined at 1.5T). Analyses were performed by 2 SCMR level-3 experts, 1 trained study nurse, and 1 trained medical student. RESULTS: The global quality score was 6.7±4.6 (n=90, mean of 4 observers, maximum possible score 64), range 6.4-6.9 (p=0.76 between observers). It ranged from 4.0-4.3 for 1.5T (p=0.96 between observers), from 5.9-6.9 for 3T (p=0.33 between observers), and from 8.6-10.3 for the Euro-CMR cases (p=0.40 between observers). The inter- (n=4) and intra-observer (n=2) agreement for the global quality score, i.e. the percentage of assignments to the same quality tertile ranged from 80% to 88% and from 90% to 98%, respectively. The agreement for the quantitative assessment for LGE images (scores 0-2 for SNR <2, 2-5, >5, respectively) ranged from 78-84% for the entire population, and 70-93% at 1.5T, 64-88% at 3T, and 72-90% for the Euro-CMR cases. The agreement for perfusion images (scores 0-2 for %SI increase >200%, 100%-200%,<100%, respectively) ranged from 81-91% for the entire population, and 76-100% at 1.5T, 67-96% at 3T, and 62-90% for the Euro-CMR registry cases. The intra-class correlation coefficient for the global quality score was 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: The described criteria for the assessment of CMR image quality are robust with a good inter- and intra-observer agreement. Further research is needed to define the impact of image quality on the diagnostic and prognostic yield of CMR studies.

Multi-dimensional approach to bullying

RÉSUMÉ : Le bullying est un type de comportement agressif qu'un élève (ou plusieurs) fait subir à un autre et qui se manifeste par des agressions verbales, physiques et/ou psychologiques. Les caractéristiques du bullying sont la répétitivité d'actions négatives sur le long terme et une relation de pouvoir asymétrique. Pour la victime, ce type de comportement peut avoir des conséquences graves telles qu'échec scolaire, dépression, troubles alimentaires, ou idées suicidaires. De plus, les auteurs de bullying commettent plus de comportements déviants au sein de l'école ou à l'extérieur de cette dernière. La mise en place d'actions ciblées auprès des auteurs de bullying pourrait donc non seulement prévenir une victimisation, mais aussi réduire les actes de délinquance en général. Hormis quelques études locales ou cantonales, aucune recherche nationale auprès d'adolescents n'existait dans le domaine. Ce travail propose de combler cette lacune afin d'obtenir une compréhension suffisante du phénomène qui permet de donner des pistes pour définir des mesures de prévention appropriées. Afin d'appréhender la problématique du bullying dans les écoles secondaires suisses, deux sondages de délinquance juvénile autoreportée ont été effectués. Le premier a eu lieu entre 2003 et 2005 dans le canton de Vaud auprès de plus de 4500 écoliers. Le second a été administré en 2006 dans toute la Suisse et environ 3600 jeunes y ont participé. Les jeunes ont répondu au sondage soit en classe (questionnaire papier) soit en salle d'informatique (questionnaire en ligne). Les jeunes ayant répondu avoir sérieusement harcelé un autre élève est d'environ 7% dans le canton de Vaud et de 4% dans l'échantillon national. Les analyses statistiques ont permis tout d'abord de sélectionner les variables les plus fortement liées au bullying. Les résultats montrent que les jeunes avec un bas niveau d'autocontrôle et ayant une attitude positive envers la violence sont plus susceptibles de commettre des actes de bullying. L'importance des variables environnementales a aussi été démontrée: plus le jeune est supervisé et encadré par des adultes, plus les autorités (école, voisinage) jouent leur rôle de contrôle social en faisant respecter les règles et en intervenant de manière impartiale, moins le jeune risque de commettre des actes de bullying. De plus, l'utilisation d'analyses multiniveaux a permis de montrer l'existence d'effets de l'école sur le bullying. En particulier, le taux de bullying dans une école donnée augmente lorsque les avis des jeunes divergent par rapport à leur perception du climat scolaire. Un autre constat que l'on peut mettre en évidence est que la réaction des enseignants lors de bagarres a une influence différente sur le taux de bullying en fonction de l'établissement scolaire. ABSTRACT : Bullying is the intentional, repetitive or persistent hurting of one pupil by another (or several), where the relationship involves an imbalance of power. Bullying is a type of aggressive behaviour and the act can be verbal, physical and/or psychological. The consequences on the victims are serious: school failure, depressive symptomatology, eating disorders, or suicidal ideation. Moreover, the authors of bullying display more delinquent behaviour within or outside the school. Thus, preventive programmes targeting bullying could not only prevent victimisation, but also reduce delinquency in general. Very little data concerning bullying had been collected in Switzerland and, except some local or cantonal studies, no national research among teenagers existed in the field. This work intends to fill the gap in order to provide sufficient understanding of the phenomenon and to suggest some tracks for defining appropriate measures of prevention. In order to understand the problems of bullying in Swiss secondary schools better, two surveys of self-reported juvenile delinquency were carried out. The first one took place between 2003 and 2005 in the canton Vaud among more than 4500 pupils, the second in 2006 across Switzerland with about 3600 youths taking part. The pupils answered to the survey either in the classroom (paper questionnaire) or in the computer room (online questionnaire). The youths that answered having seriously bullied another pupil are about 7% in canton Vaud and 4% in the national sample. Statistical analyses have selected the variables most strongly related to bullying. The results show that the youths with a low level of self-control and adopting a positive attitude towards violence are more likely to bully others. The importance of the environmental variables was also shown: the more that youth is supervised and monitored by adults, and the more the authorities (school, neighbourhood) play their role of social control by making the rules be respected through intervening in an impartial way, the less the youth bully. Moreover, the use of multilevel analyses permitted to show the existence of effects of the school on bullying. In particular, the rate of bullying in a given school increases when there is a wide variation among students of the same school in their perception of their school climate. Another important aspect concerns teachers' reactions when pupils fight: this variable does not influence the bullying rate to the same extent, and depends on the school.