HPV vaccine coverage in Texas counties: An application of multilevel, small area estimation

Health departments, research institutions, policy-makers, and healthcare providers are often interested in knowing the health status of their clients/constituents. Without the resources, financially or administratively, to go out into the community and conduct health assessments directly, these entities frequently rely on data from population-based surveys to supply the information they need. Unfortunately, these surveys are ill-equipped for the job due to sample size and privacy concerns. Small area estimation (SAE) techniques have excellent potential in such circumstances, but have been underutilized in public health due to lack of awareness and confidence in applying its methods. The goal of this research is to make model-based SAE accessible to a broad readership using clear, example-based learning. Specifically, we applied the principles of multilevel, unit-level SAE to describe the geographic distribution of HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas.^ Multilevel (3 level: individual, county, public health region) random-intercept logit models of HPV vaccination (receipt of ≥ 1 dose Gardasil® ) were fit to data from the 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (outcome and level 1 covariates) and a number of secondary sources (group-level covariates). Sampling weights were scaled (level 1) or constructed (levels 2 & 3), and incorporated at every level. Using the regression coefficients (and standard errors) from the final models, I simulated 10,000 datasets for each regression coefficient from the normal distribution and applied them to the logit model to estimate HPV vaccine coverage in each county and respective demographic subgroup. For simplicity, I only provide coverage estimates (and 95% confidence intervals) for counties.^ County-level coverage among females aged 11-17 varied from 6.8-29.0%. For females aged 18-26, coverage varied from 1.9%-23.8%. Aggregated to the state level, these values translate to indirect state estimates of 15.5% and 11.4%, respectively; both of which fall within the confidence intervals for the direct estimates of HPV vaccine coverage in Texas (Females 11-17: 17.7%, 95% CI: 13.6, 21.9; Females 18-26: 12.0%, 95% CI: 6.2, 17.7).^ Small area estimation has great potential for informing policy, program development and evaluation, and the provision of health services. Harnessing the flexibility of multilevel, unit-level SAE to estimate HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas counties, I have provided (1) practical guidance on how to conceptualize and conduct modelbased SAE, (2) a robust framework that can be applied to other health outcomes or geographic levels of aggregation, and (3) HPV vaccine coverage data that may inform the development of health education programs, the provision of health services, the planning of additional research studies, and the creation of local health policies.^

Minimum income for healthy living

Objectives: We sought to estimate the costs of implementing the current recommendations for healthy choices for a mother with two young children in Atlanta, Georgia. ^ Methods: Current recommendations for healthy choices promoted by the federal government or other credible source were compiled and operationalized into specific conditions or behaviors. The costs of implementing these choices in Atlanta were estimated by using internet searches of retailers/suppliers, phone interviews, and direct observation. The least expensive option was chosen when options were available. ^ Results: Recommendations for choosing a healthy neighborhood, home, school, child care, food, physical activity, and maintaining healthy relationships as well as access to health care were considered. Total costs for this family of three totaled $38,181. Housing, child care, and health insurance contributed to 78% of the total costs. ^ Conclusions: The minimum income needed to choose healthy choices falls short of current wages, and eligibility levels and benefits for income support. ^

Effect of primary care availability and health insurance coverage on risk and cost of Preventable Hospitalizations in Harris County

Preventable Hospitalizations (PHs) are hospitalizations that can be avoided with appropriate and timely care in the ambulatory setting and hence are closely associated with primary care access in a community. Increased primary care availability and health insurance coverage may increase primary care access, and consequently may be significantly associated with risks and costs of PHs. Objective. To estimate the risk and cost of preventable hospitalizations (PHs); to determine the association of primary care availability and health insurance coverage with the risk and costs of PHs, first alone and then simultaneously; and finally, to estimate the impact of expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage on the burden of PHs among non-elderly adult residents of Harris County. Methods. The study population was residents of Harris County, age 18 to 64, who had at least one hospital discharge in a Texas hospital in 2008. The primary independent variables were availability of primary care physicians, availability of primary care safety net clinics and health insurance coverage. The primary dependent variables were PHs and associated hospitalization costs. The Texas Health Care Information Collection (THCIC) Inpatient Discharge data was used to obtain information on the number and costs of PHs in the study population. Risk of PHs in the study population, as well as average and total costs of PHs were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression models and two-step Heckman regression models with log-transformed costs were used to determine the association of primary care availability and health insurance coverage with the risk and costs of PHs respectively, while controlling for individual predisposing, enabling and need characteristics. Predicted PH risk and cost were used to calculate the predicted burden of PHs in the study population and the impact of expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage on the predicted burden. Results. In 2008, hospitalized non-elderly adults in Harris County had 11,313 PHs and a corresponding PH risk of 8.02%. Congestive heart failure was the most common PH. PHs imposed a total economic burden of $84 billion at an average of $7,449 per PH. Higher primary care safety net availability was significantly associated with the lower risk of PHs in the final risk model, but only in the uninsured. A unit increase in safety net availability led to a 23% decline in PH odds in the uninsured, compared to only a 4% decline in the insured. Higher primary care physician availability was associated with increased PH costs in the final cost model (β=0.0020; p<0.05). Lack of health insurance coverage increased the risk of PH, with the uninsured having 30% higher odds of PHs (OR=1.299; p<0.05), but reduced the cost of a PH by 7% (β=-0.0668; p<0.05). Expansions in primary care availability and health insurance coverage were associated with a reduction of about $1.6 million in PH burden at the highest level of expansion. Conclusions. Availability of primary care resources and health insurance coverage in hospitalized non-elderly adults in Harris County are significantly associated with the risk and costs of PHs. Expansions in these primary care access factors can be expected to produce significant reductions in the burden of PHs in Harris County.^

Systematic review of current trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and association between health insurance coverage and CVD mortality among women aged 60--65 in Texas in 2000--2011

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is highly preventable, yet it is a leading cause of death among women in Texas. The primary goals of this research were to examine past and current trends of CVD, as well as identify whether there is an association between the insurance coverage and mortality from CVD among women aged 60–65 in Texas between 2000 and 2011. ^ The systematic review of the research is based on the guidelines and recommendations set by the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination for conducting reviews in health care. Over 47 citations of peer-reviewed articles from Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed databases and five websites were identified, of which 7 studies met inclusion criteria for the first systematic review to examine the trends of CVD in Texas. Ten citations of peer-reviewed articles from Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed databases and five web sites were reviewed for the second systematic review (to study the association between insurance coverage and cardiovascular health among Texas women 60–64 years of age), of which 3 studies met inclusion criteria and were included in the research. The results of the study highlighted key gaps in the existing literature and important areas for the further research, as well as determined directions for future public health CVD prevention programs in Texas. ^ Based on the conducted research, the major determinants of premature mortality among women attributed to cardiovascular disease are based on individual level characteristics, more specifically sex, age, race/ethnicity, and education. The results indicate that African American and non-Hispanic white women are more likely to have higher CVD mortality rates than Hispanic women due to higher prevalence of cardiac risk factors. The data also shows higher levels of mortality from CVD in the southeastern United States, with Texas ranking as the third state with the highest prevalence of CVD among women. According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, there are approximately 56,000 deaths caused by CVD annually in Texas, which represents about one death every ten minutes. Coronary artery disease and stroke were the causes of 31.2 percent of all female deaths in Texas in 2009, meaning that approximately 68 women die from any form of cardiac disease in Texas each day. ^ The data of the reviewed studies indicate that women' lack of health insurance was significantly associated with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease. The uninsured women were more likely to be unaware of their risk factors and more likely to have undiagnosed diabetes—a co-morbidity factor of CVD. One of the studies also reports strong correlation between state rates of uninsured and lower rates of preventive care. Given these strong correlations, those who were chronically uninsured were at a higher risk of mortality than the insured, due to prolonged periods of time without basic access to preventive and medical care. ^ Suggested recommendations to decrease CVD mortality rates in Texas are consistent with the existing literature and include state policy development that addresses elimination of health disparities, consideration of potential benefits of universal health coverage by the legislative policymakers, and maintenance of solid partnerships between public health agencies and hospitals to educate on, diagnose, and treat CVD among the female population in Texas. ^

Development of a SPECT -based three-dimensional treatment planner for radionuclide therapy with iodine -131

Accurate calculation of absorbed dose to target tumors and normal tissues in the body is an important requirement for establishing fundamental dose-response relationships for radioimmunotherapy. Two major obstacles have been the difficulty in obtaining an accurate patient-specific 3-D activity map in-vivo and calculating the resulting absorbed dose. This study investigated a methodology for 3-D internal dosimetry, which integrates the 3-D biodistribution of the radionuclide acquired from SPECT with a dose-point kernel convolution technique to provide the 3-D distribution of absorbed dose. Accurate SPECT images were reconstructed with appropriate methods for noise filtering, attenuation correction, and Compton scatter correction. The SPECT images were converted into activity maps using a calibration phantom. The activity map was convolved with an $\sp{131}$I dose-point kernel using a 3-D fast Fourier transform to yield a 3-D distribution of absorbed dose. The 3-D absorbed dose map was then processed to provide the absorbed dose distribution in regions of interest. This methodology can provide heterogeneous distributions of absorbed dose in volumes of any size and shape with nonuniform distributions of activity. Comparison of the activities quantitated by our SPECT methodology to true activities in an Alderson abdominal phantom (with spleen, liver, and spherical tumor) yielded errors of $-$16.3% to 4.4%. Volume quantitation errors ranged from $-$4.0 to 5.9% for volumes greater than 88 ml. The percentage differences of the average absorbed dose rates calculated by this methodology and the MIRD S-values were 9.1% for liver, 13.7% for spleen, and 0.9% for the tumor. Good agreement (percent differences were less than 8%) was found between the absorbed dose due to penetrating radiation calculated from this methodology and TLD measurement. More accurate estimates of the 3-D distribution of absorbed dose can be used as a guide in specifying the minimum activity to be administered to patients to deliver a prescribed absorbed dose to tumor without exceeding the toxicity limits of normal tissues. ^

Requirement of the Jak2 tyrosine kinase in Bcr -Abl oncogenic transformation

Philadelphia chromosome (Ph)-positive chronic myeloid leukemia is caused by a clonal myeloproliferative expansion of malignant primitive hematopoietic progenitor cells. The Ph results from the reciprocal translocation of the ends of chromosome 9 and 22, which generate Bcr-Abl fusion proteins. The Bcr-Abl proteins possess a constitutively activated Abl tyrosine kinase, which is the driving force responsible for causing leukemia. The activated Bcr-Abl tyrosine kinase stimulates multiple signal transduction pathway affecting growth, differentiation and survival of cells. It is known that the Bcr-Abl tyrosine kinase activates several signaling proteins including Stat5, which is a member of the Jak/Stat pathway that is activated by cytokines that control the growth and differentiation of normal hematopoietic cells. Our laboratory was the first one to report that Jak2 tyrosine kinase is activated in a human Bcr-Abl positive hematopoietic cell line. In this thesis, we further investigated the activation of Jak2 by Bcr-Abl. We found that Jak2 is activated not only in cultured Bcr-abl positive cell lines but also in blood cells from CML blast crisis patients. We also demonstrated that SH2 domain of Bcr-Abl is required for efficient activation Jak2. We further showed that Jak2 binds to the C-terminal domain of Bcr-Abl; tyrosine residue 1007, which is critical for Jak2 activation, is phosphorylated by Bcr-Abl. We searched downstream targets of Jak2 in Bcr-Abl positive cells. We treated Bcr-Abl positive cells with a Jak2 kinase inhibitor AG490 and found that c-Myc protein expression is inhibited by AG490. We further demonstrated that Jak2 inhibitor AG490 not only inhibit C-MYC transcription but also protect c-Myc protein from proteasome-dependent degradation. We also showed that AG490 did not affect Bcr-Abl kinase activity and Stat5 activation and its downstream target Bcl-xL expression. AG490 also induced apoptosis of Bcr-Abl positive cells, similar to Bcr-Abl kinase inhibitor STI571 (also termed Gliveec, a very effective drug for CML), but unlike STI571 the apoptosis effects induced by AG490 can not be rescued by IL-3 containing WEHI conditioned medium. We further established several Bcr-Abl positive clones that express a kinase-inactive Jak2 and found that these clones had reduced tumor formation in nude mice assays. Taken together, these results establish that Jak2 is activated in Bcr-Abl positive CML cells and it is required for c-Myc induction and the oncogenic effects of Bcr-Abl. Furthermore, Jak2 and Stat5 are two independent targets of Bcr-Abl. ^

Percent cropland coverage for sub-Saharan Africa

The dataset contains a cropland percent coverage map for Africa created through the combination of five existing land cover products: GLC-2000, MODIS Land Cover, GlobCover, MODIS Crop Likelihood and AfriCover. A synergy map was created in which the products are ranked by experts, which reflects the likelihood or probability that a given pixel is cropland. The cropland map was calibrated with national and sub-national crop statistics using a novel approach. Preliminary validation of the map was undertaken. The resulting cropland map has an accuracy of 83%, which is higher than the accuracy of any of the individual maps. The cropland percent coverage map for Africa is available for overlay on Google Earth or for download at http://agriculture.geo-wiki.org.

(Appendix A) Geochemical composition of snow and eolian mineral dust from Berkner Island ice sheet, Antarctica

The Sr and Nd isotopic composition of dust extracted from recent snow layers at the top of Berkner Island ice sheet (located within the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf at the southern end of the Weddell Sea) enables us, for the first time, to document dust provenance in Antarctica outside the East Antarctic Plateau (EAP) where all previous studies based on isotopic fingerprinting were carried out. Berkner dust displays an overall crust-like isotopic signature, characterized by more radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr and much less radiogenic 143Nd/144Nd compared to dust deposited on the EAP during glacial periods. Differences with EAP interglacial dust are not as marked but still significant, indicating that present-day Berkner dust provenance is distinct, at least to some extent, from that of the dust reaching the EAP. The fourteen snow-pit sub-seasonal samples that were obtained span a two-year period (2002-2003) and their dust Sr and Nd isotopic composition reveals that multiple sources are at play over a yearly time period. Southern South America, Patagonia in particular, likely accounts for part of the observed spring/summer dust deposition maxima, when isotopic composition is shifted towards 'younger' isotopic signatures. In the spring, possible additional inputs from Australian sources would also be supported by the data. Most of the year, however, the measured isotopic signatures would be best explained by a sustained background supply from putative local sources in East Antarctica, which carry old-crust-like isotopic fingerprints. Whether the restricted East Antarctic ice-free areas produce sufficient eolian material has yet to be substantiated however. The fact that large (> 5 µm) particles represent a significant fraction of the samples throughout the entire time-series supports scenarios that involve contributions from proximal sources, either in Patagonia and/or Antarctica (possibly including snow-free areas in the Antarctic Peninsula and other areas as well). This also indicates that additional dust transport, which does not reach the EAP, must occur at low-tropospheric levels to this coastal sector of Antarctica.

(Table 1) Deuterium excess record during different time periods in Lomonosovfonna ice core

In this paper we present a deuterium excess (d) record from an ice core drilled on a small ice cap in Svalbard in 1997. The core site is located at Lomonosovfonna at 1255 m asl, and the analyzed time series spans the period 1400-1990 A.D. The record shows pronounced multidecadal to centennial-scale variations coherent with sea surface temperature changes registered in the subtropical to southern middle-latitude North Atlantic during the instrumental period. We interpret the negative trend in the deuterium excess during the 1400s and 1500s as an indication of cooling in the North Atlantic associated with the onset of the Little Ice Age. Consistently positive anomalies of d after 1900, peaking at about 1950, correspond with well-documented contemporary warming. Yet the maximum values of deuterium excess during 1900-1990 are not as high as in the early part of the record (pre-1550). This suggests that the sea surface temperatures during this earlier period of time in the North Atlantic to the south of approximately 45°N were at least comparable with those registered in the 20th century before the end of the 1980s. We examine the potential for a cold bias to exist in the deuterium excess record due to increased evaporation from the local colder sources of moisture having isotopically cold signature. It is argued that despite a recent oceanic warming, the contribution from this local moisture to the Lomonosovfonna precipitation budget is still insufficient to interfere with the isotopic signal from the primary moisture region in the midlatitude North Atlantic.

Minimum water input event for seedling emergence of three native perennial grasses of the Central Monte desert (Argentina) influenced by the effect of shade and the season of the year

In deserts, seedling emergence occurs only after precipitation threshold has been exceeded, however, the presence of trees modifies microenvironmental conditions that might affect the effectiveness of a water pulse. In the Monte desert, Prosopis flexuosa trees generate different micro-environmental conditions that might influence grass seedlings establishment. The objective of this work was: a) to know the effective minimum water input event that triggers the emergence of native perennial grass seedlings; b) to relate this fact with the effect of the shade of P. flexuosa canopy and the seasonal temperatures. Three important forage species of the Monte were studied: Pappophorum caespitosum and Trichloris crinita, with C4, and Jarava ichu, with C3 metabolism. Each season, seeds of these species were sown in pots placed at two light conditions: shade (similar to P. flexuosa cover) and open area, and with seven irrigation treatments (0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 2*10 and 3*10 mm). J. ichu did not emerge in any of the treatments. Significant seedling emergence was registered for P. caespitosum and T. crinita in shade conditions with 40 mm irrigation treatment in summer. Since 40 mm precipitation events are infrequent in the Monte, seedling emergence for these species would be restricted to exceptional rainy years. The facilitating effect of P. flexuosa shade would be important during the hot season.