972 resultados para maximum Lyapunov exponent


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Phytoplankton populations can display high levels of genetic diversity that, when reflected by phenotypic variability, may stabilize a species response to environmental changes. We studied the effects of increased temperature and CO2 availability as predicted consequences of global change, on 16 genetically different isolates of the diatom Skeletonema marinoi from the Adriatic Sea and the Skagerrak (North Sea), and on eight strains of the PST (paralytic shellfish toxin)-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii from the Baltic Sea. Maximum growth rates were estimated in batch cultures of acclimated isolates grown for five to 10 generations in a factorial design at 20 and 24 °C, and present day and next century applied atmospheric pCO2, respectively. In both species, individual strains were affected in different ways by increased temperature and pCO2. The strongest response variability, buffering overall effects, was detected among Adriatic S. marinoi strains. Skagerrak strains showed a more uniform response, particularly to increased temperature, with an overall positive effect on growth. Increased temperature also caused a general growth stimulation in A. ostenfeldii, despite notable variability in strain-specific response patterns. Our data revealed a significant relationship between strain-specific growth rates and the impact of pCO2 on growth-slow growing cultures were generally positively affected, while fast growing cultures showed no or negative responses to increased pCO2. Toxin composition of A. ostenfeldii was consistently altered by elevated temperature and increased CO2 supply in the tested strains, resulting in overall promotion of saxitoxin production by both treatments. Our findings suggest that phenotypic variability within populations plays an important role in the adaptation of phytoplankton to changing environments, potentially attenuating short-term effects and forming the basis for selection. In particular, A. ostenfeldii blooms may expand and increase in toxicity under increased water temperature and atmospheric pCO2 conditions, with potentially severe consequences for the coastal ecosystem.

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We use the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM to simulate the climate and oxygen stable isotopic signal during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 yr). By using a model that is able to explicitly simulate the sensor (d18O), results can be directly compared with data from climatic archives in the different realms. Our results indicate that iLOVECLIM reproduces well the main feature of the LGM climate in the atmospheric and oceanic components. The annual mean d18O in precipitation shows more depleted values in the northern and southern high latitudes during the LGM. The model reproduces very well the spatial gradient observed in ice core records over the Greenland ice-sheet. We observe a general pattern toward more enriched values for continental calcite d18O in the model at the LGM, in agreement with speleothem data. This can be explained by both a general atmospheric cooling in the tropical and subtropical regions and a reduction in precipitation as confirmed by reconstruction derived from pollens and plant macrofossils. Data-model comparison for sea surface temperature indicates that iLOVECLIM is capable to satisfyingly simulate the change in oceanic surface conditions between the LGM and present. Our data-model comparison for calcite d18O allows investigating the large discrepancies with respect to glacial temperatures recorded by different microfossil proxies in the North Atlantic region. The results argue for a trong mean annual cooling between the LGM and present (>6°C), supporting the foraminifera transfer function reconstruction but in disagreement with alkenones and dinocyst reconstructions. The data-model comparison also reveals that large positive calcite d18O anomaly in the Southern Ocean may be explained by an important cooling, although the driver of this pattern is unclear. We deduce a large positive d18Osw anomaly for the north Indian Ocean that contrasts with a large negative d18Osw anomaly in the China Sea between the LGM and present. This pattern may be linked to changes in the hydrological cycle over these regions. Our simulation of the deep ocean suggests that changes in d18Osw between the LGM and present are not spatially homogenous. This is supported by reconstructions derived from pore fluids in deep-sea sediments. The model underestimates the deep ocean cooling thus biasing the comparison with benthic calcite d18O data. Nonetheless, our data-model comparison support a heterogeneous cooling of few degrees (2-4°C) in the LGM Ocean.

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The effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on photosynthesis and calcification in the calcifying algae Halimeda macroloba and Halimeda cylindracea and the symbiont-bearing benthic foraminifera Marginopora vertebralis were investigated through exposure to a combination of four temperatures (28°C, 30°C, 32°C, and 34°C) and four CO2 levels (39, 61, 101, and 203 Pa; pH 8.1, 7.9, 7.7, and 7.4, respectively). Elevated CO2 caused a profound decline in photosynthetic efficiency (FV : FM), calcification, and growth in all species. After five weeks at 34°C under all CO2 levels, all species died. Chlorophyll (Chl) a and b concentration in Halimeda spp. significantly decreased in 203 Pa, 32°C and 34°C treatments, but Chl a and Chl c2 concentration in M. vertebralis was not affected by temperature alone, with significant declines in the 61, 101, and 203 Pa treatments at 28°C. Significant decreases in FV : FM in all species were found after 5 weeks of exposure to elevated CO2 (203 Pa in all temperature treatments) and temperature (32°C and 34°C in all pH treatments). The rate of oxygen production declined at 61, 101, and 203 Pa in all temperature treatments for all species. The elevated CO2 and temperature treatments greatly reduced calcification (growth and crystal size) in M. vertebralis and, to a lesser extent, in Halimeda spp. These findings indicate that 32°C and 101 Pa CO2, are the upper limits for survival of these species on Heron Island reef, and we conclude that these species will be highly vulnerable to the predicted future climate change scenarios of elevated temperature and ocean acidification.