Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

A hybrid approach for resolving the electromagnetic fields inside a waveguide loaded with a lossy medium

In this work a novel hybrid approach is presented that uses a combination of both time domain and frequency domain solution strategies to predict the power distribution within a lossy medium loaded within a waveguide. The problem of determining the electromagnetic fields evolving within the waveguide and the lossy medium is decoupled into two components, one for computing the fields in the waveguide including a coarse representation of the medium (the exterior problem) and one for a detailed resolution of the lossy medium (the interior problem). A previously documented cell-centred Maxwell’s equations numerical solver can be used to resolve the exterior problem accurately in the time domain. Thereafter the discrete Fourier transform can be applied to the computed field data around the interface of the medium to estimate the frequency domain boundary condition in-formation that is needed for closure of the interior problem. Since only the electric fields are required to compute the power distribution generated within the lossy medium, the interior problem can be resolved efficiently using the Helmholtz equation. A consistent cell-centred finite-volume method is then used to discretise this equation on a fine mesh and the underlying large, sparse, complex matrix system is solved for the required electric field using the iterative Krylov subspace based GMRES iterative solver. It will be shown that the hybrid solution methodology works well when a single frequency is considered in the evaluation of the Helmholtz equation in a single mode waveguide. A restriction of the scheme is that the material needs to be sufficiently lossy, so that any penetrating waves in the material are absorbed.

State convergence in the initialisation of stream ciphers

An initialisation process is a key component in modern stream cipher design. A well-designed initialisation process should ensure that each key-IV pair generates a different key stream. In this paper, we analyse two ciphers, A5/1 and Mixer, for which this does not happen due to state convergence. We show how the state convergence problem occurs and estimate the effective key-space in each case.

Spectral–texture feature extraction using statistical moments with application to object-based vegetation species classification

The use of appropriate features to characterise an output class or object is critical for all classification problems. In order to find optimal feature descriptors for vegetation species classification in a power line corridor monitoring application, this article evaluates the capability of several spectral and texture features. A new idea of spectral–texture feature descriptor is proposed by incorporating spectral vegetation indices in statistical moment features. The proposed method is evaluated against several classic texture feature descriptors. Object-based classification method is used and a support vector machine is employed as the benchmark classifier. Individual tree crowns are first detected and segmented from aerial images and different feature vectors are extracted to represent each tree crown. The experimental results showed that the proposed spectral moment features outperform or can at least compare with the state-of-the-art texture descriptors in terms of classification accuracy. A comprehensive quantitative evaluation using receiver operating characteristic space analysis further demonstrates the strength of the proposed feature descriptors.

High performance additive manufactured scaffolds for bone tissue engineering application

This study demonstrates the feasibility of additive manufactured poly(3-caprolactone)/silanized tricalcium phosphate (PCL/TCP(Si)) scaffolds coated with carbonated hydroxyapatite (CHA)-gelatin composite for bone tissue engineering. In order to reinforce PCL/TCP scaffolds to match the mechanical properties of cancellous bone, TCP has been modified with 3-glycidoxypropyl trimethoxysilane (GPTMS) and incorporated into PCL to synthesize a PCL/TCP(Si) composite. The successful modification is confirmed by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis. Additive manufactured PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds have been fabricated using a screw extrusion system (SES). Compression testing demonstrates that both the compressive modulus and compressive yield strength of the developed PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds fall within the lower ranges of mechanical properties for cancellous bone, with a compressive modulus and compressive yield strength of 6.0 times and 2.3 times of those of PCL/TCP scaffolds, respectively. To enhance the osteoconductive property of the developed PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds, a CHA-gelatin composite has been coated onto the scaffolds via a biomimetic co-precipitation process, which is verified by using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and XPS. Confocal laser microscopy and SEM images reveal a most uniform distribution of porcine bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) and cellsheet accumulation on the CHA-gelatin composite coated PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds. The proliferation rate of BMSCs on the CHA-gelatin composite coated PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds is 2.0 and 1.4 times higher compared to PCL/TCP(Si) and CHA coated PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds, respectively, by day 10. Furthermore, the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and western blot analyses reveal that CHA-gelatin composite coated PCL/TCP(Si) scaffolds stimulate osteogenic differentiation of BMSCs the most compared to the other scaffolds. In vitro results of SEM, confocal microscopy and proliferation rate also show that there is no detrimental effect of GPTMS modification on biocompatibility of the scaffolds.

Elicitator : a user-friendly, interactive tool to support scenario-based elicitation of expert knowledge

Expert elicitation is the process of determining what expert knowledge is relevant to support a quantitative analysis and then eliciting this information in a form that supports analysis or decision-making. The credibility of the overall analysis, therefore, relies on the credibility of the elicited knowledge. This, in turn, is determined by the rigor of the design and execution of the elicitation methodology, as well as by its clear communication to ensure transparency and repeatability. It is difficult to establish rigor when the elicitation methods are not documented, as often occurs in ecological research. In this chapter, we describe software that can be combined with a well-structured elicitation process to improve the rigor of expert elicitation and documentation of the results

Maximising the manufacturer performance value through lean initiatives using cost based model

Numerous tools and techniques have been developed to eliminate or reduce waste and carry out lean concepts in the manufacturing environment. However, appropriate lean tools need to be selected and implemented in order to fulfil the manufacturer needs within their budgetary constraints. As a result, it is important to identify manufacturer needs and implement only those tools, which contribute maximum benefit to their needs. In this research a mathematical model is proposed for maximising the perceived value of manufacturer needs and developed a step-by-step methodology to select best performance metrics along with appropriate lean strategies within the budgetary constraints. With the help of a case study, the proposed model and method have been demonstrated.

Synthesis and characterisation of hybrid gold/polymer nanoparticles for bioassay application

A bioassay technique, based on surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) tagged gold nanoparticles encapsulated with a biotin functionalised polymer, has been demonstrated through the spectroscopic detection of a streptavidin binding event. A methodical series of steps preceded these results: synthesis of nanoparticles which were found to give a reproducible SERS signal; design and synthesis of polymers with RAFT-functional end groups able to encapsulate the gold nanoparticle. The polymer also enabled the attachment of a biotin molecule functionalised so that it could be attached to the hybrid nanoparticle through a modular process. Finally, the demonstrations of a positive bioassay for this model construct using streptavidin/biotin binding. The synthesis of silver and gold nanoparticles was performed by using tri-sodium citrate as the reducing agent. The shape of the silver nanoparticles was quite difficult to control. Gold nanoparticles were able to be prepared in more regular shapes (spherical) and therefore gave a more consistent and reproducible SERS signal. The synthesis of gold nanoparticles with a diameter of 30 nm was the most reproducible and these were also stable over the longest periods of time. From the SERS results the optimal size of gold nanoparticles was found to be approximately 30 nm. Obtaining a consistent SERS signal with nanoparticles smaller than this was particularly difficult. Nanoparticles more than 50 nm in diameter were too large to remain suspended for longer than a day or two and formed a precipitate, rendering the solutions useless for our desired application. Gold nanoparticles dispersed in water were able to be stabilised by the addition of as-synthesised polymers dissolved in a water miscible solvent. Polymer stabilised AuNPs could not be formed from polymers synthesised by conventional free radical polymerization, i.e. polymers that did not possess a sulphur containing end-group. This indicated that the sulphur-containing functionality present within the polymers was essential for the self assembly process to occur. Polymer stabilization of the gold colloid was evidenced by a range of techniques including, visible spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis and Raman spectroscopy. After treatment of the hybrid nanoparticles with a series of SERS tags, focussing on 2-quinolinethiol the SERS signals were found to have comparable signal intensity to the citrate stabilised gold nanoparticles. This finding illustrates that the stabilization process does not interfere with the ability of gold nanoparticles to act as substrates for the SERS effect. Incorporation of a biotin moiety into the hybrid nanoparticles was achieved through a =click‘ reaction between an alkyne-functionalised polymer and an azido-functionalised biotin analogue. This functionalized biotin was prepared through a 4-step synthesis from biotin. Upon exposure of the surface-bound streptavidin to biotin-functionalised polymer hybrid gold nanoparticles, then washing, a SERS signal was obtained from the 2-quinolinethiol which was attached to the gold nanoparticles (positive assay). After exposure to functionalised polymer hybrid gold nanoparticles without biotin present then washing a SERS signal was not obtained as the nanoparticles did not bind to the streptavidin (negative assay). These results illustrate the applicability of the use of SERS active functional-polymer encapsulated gold nanoparticles for bioassay application.