961 resultados para marginal likelihood
Resumo:
We model a buyer who wishes to combine objects owned by two separate sellers in order to realize higher value. Sellers are able to avoid entering into negotiations with the buyer, so that the order in which they negotiate is endogenous. Holdout occurs if at least one of the sellers is not present in the first round of negotiations. We demonstrate that complementarity of the buyer's technology is a necessary condition for equilibrium holdout. Moreover, a rise in complementarity leads to an increased likelihood of holdout, and an increased efficiency loss. Applications include patents, the land assembly problem, and mergers.
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This article deals with the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators. This study was based on Monte Carlo experiments involving simulated stochastic processes with integration orders in the range]-1,1[. The evaluated estimation methods were classified into two groups: heuristics and semiparametric/maximum likelihood (ML). The study revealed that the comparative efficiency of the estimators, measured by the lesser mean squared error, depends on the stationary/non-stationary and persistency/anti-persistency conditions of the series. The ML estimator was shown to be superior for stationary persistent processes; the wavelet spectrum-based estimators were better for non-stationary mean reversible and invertible anti-persistent processes; the weighted periodogram-based estimator was shown to be superior for non-invertible anti-persistent processes.
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Mating order can have important consequences for the fertilization success of males whose ejaculates compete to fertilize a clutch of eggs. Despite an excellent body of literature on mating-order effects in many animals, they have rarely been considered in marine free-spawning invertebrates, where both sexes release gametes into the water column. In this study, we show that in such organisms, mating order can have profound repercussions for male reproductive success. Using in vitro fertilization for two species of sea urchin we found that the 'fertilization history' of a clutch of eggs strongly influenced the size distribution of unfertilized eggs, and consequently the likelihood that they will be fertilized. Males that had first access to a batch of eggs enjoyed elevated fertilization success because they had privileged access to the largest and therefore most readily fertilizable eggs within a clutch. By contrast, when a male's sperm were exposed to a batch of unfertilized eggs left over from a previous mating event, fertilization rates were reduced, owing to smaller eggs remaining in egg clutches previously exposed to sperm. Because of this size-dependent fertilization, the fertilization history of eggs also strongly influenced the size distribution of offspring, with first-spawning males producing larger, and therefore fitter, offspring. These findings suggest that when there is variation in egg size, mating order will influence not only the quantity but also the quality of offspring sired by competing males.
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We demonstrate complete characterization of a two-qubit entangling process-a linear optics controlled-NOT gate operating with coincident detection-by quantum process tomography. We use a maximum-likelihood estimation to convert the experimental data into a physical process matrix. The process matrix allows an accurate prediction of the operation of the gate for arbitrary input states and a calculation of gate performance measures such as the average gate fidelity, average purity, and entangling capability of our gate, which are 0.90, 0.83, and 0.73, respectively.
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This paper presents kinematic analysis on the motion of Adria, which is the continental mass that bridges Africa and Europe in the central Mediterranean. Palaeomagnetic data show a general coherence between the motion of Adria and Africa since the Late Paleozoic. This mutual motion, for the period from 120 Ma and the present, is verified by comparing inferred palaeolatitudes from relatively stable parts of Adria (Apulia, Gargano, Istria, and the Southern Alps) and the Hyblean Plateau, with latitudinal changes that are calculated from the motion of Africa with respect to hotspots. Additional constraints on the motion of Adria are provided from the Late Paleozoic-Early Mesozoic passive margin of Adria in the Ionian Sea. The seismic structure of the floor of the Ionian Sea resembles the structure of the oceanic crust in marginal back-arc basins, suggesting that it formed as a small ocean basin. Furthermore, the Ionian lithosphere in the Calabrian arc has been subjected to rapid rollback, which commonly occurs only when the subducting slab is made of oceanic lithosphere. This oceanic domain marks the Pennian-Triassic to Jurassic plate boundary between Adria and Africa, suggesting that a small amount of independent motion between Adria and Africa took place at that time. Since the Jurassic, Adria and Africa have shared a relatively coherent motion path. (C) 2004 Lavoisier SAS. All rights reserved.
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A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.
Resumo:
We have measured nucleotide variation in the CLOCK/CYCLE heterodimer inhibition domain (CCID) of the clock X-linked gene period in seven species belonging to the Drosophila buzzatii cluster, namely D. buzzatii, Drosophila koepferae, Drosophila antonietae, Drosophila serido, Drosophila gouveai, Drosophila seriema and Drosophila borborema. We detected that the purifying selection is the main force driving the sequence evolution in period, in agreement with the important role of CCID in clock machinery. Our survey revealed that period provides valuable phylogenetic information that allowed to resolve phylogenetic relationships among D. gouveai, D. borborema and D. seriema, which composed a polytomic clade in preliminary studies. The analysis of patterns of intraspecific variation revealed two different lineages of period in D. koepferae, probably reflecting introgressive hybridization from D. buzzatii, in concordance with previous molecular data.
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This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Research investigating the role of stereotypes in jury decision-making has typically considered stereotypes as acting as peripheral cues in determin ing the credibility of experts or likelihood of guilt of defendants — with counter-stereotypic courtroom participants faring less well. The present study investigated the possibility that the extent to which courtroom participants are stereotypic can alter the mode of information processing. Students (N = 78) read a transcript of a case in which either a male or female allegedly committed an armed robbery. As predicted, the female counter-stereotypic defendant was distracting and effortful processing only occurred when the defendant was male. The male was seen as more guilty and the prosecution's case was more convincing when the prosecution had a strong, but not weak, case. There were no effects of case strength for the female defendant. Results are discussed in terms of the role of stereotypes in the jury decision-making.
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Aminoacyl-transfer RNA (tRNA) synthetases (aaRS) are key players in translation and act early in protein synthesis by mediating the attachment of amino acids to their cognate tRNA molecules. In plants, protein synthesis may occur in three subcellular compartments (cytosol, mitochondria, and chloroplasts), which requires multiple versions of the protein to be correctly delivered to its proper destination. The organellar aaRS are nuclear encoded and equipped with targeting information at the N-terminal sequence, which enables them to be specifically translocated to their final location. Most of the aaRS families present organellar proteins that are dual targeted to mitochondria and chloroplasts. Here, we examine the dual targeting behavior of aaRS from an evolutionary perspective. Our results show that Arabidopsis thaliana aaRS sequences are a result of a horizontal gene transfer event from bacteria. However, there is no evident bias indicating one single ancestor (Cyanobacteria or Proteobacteria). The dual-targeted aaRS phylogenetic relationship was characterized into two different categories (paralogs and homologs) depending on the state recovered for both dual-targeted and cytosolic proteins. Taken together, our results suggest that the dual-targeted condition is a gain-of-function derived from gene duplication. Selection may have maintained the original function in at least one of the copies as the additional copies diverged.
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PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Research documents related to the morphology and function of style branches and stigmatic surface of Asteraceae are still rather few, and the literature reports are thus controversial. We report in the present study that the stigmatic surfaces of two non-related species of Asteraceae (Lessingianthus grandiflorus and Lucilia lycopodioides) have features of semidry stigmas. Sporodermis of both species was also analyzed so that we could understand how the stigmatic surface works during pollen deposition and rehydration. Stylar branches and pollen grains (sporodermis) were studied using scanning and transmission electron microscopy (SEM and TEM) and histochemistry techniques. The inner and marginal bands of stylar branches in these species display intermediary features between the dry and wet types of stigma: the cuticle characterizes the dry stigma and cells with secretory activity characterize the wet stigma; these showed differences from what has been described to the Asteraceae family, where stigmatic surface of species from several tribes is considered dry. Pollen grains are medium-size to large with exine ornamentation (echinate and echinolophate) and abundant secretion which latter characterizes pollenkitt. We can assume that two processes might help pollen grain hydration on stigmatic surface in Lessingianthus grandiflorus and Lucilia lycopodioides: (1) the presence of pollenkitt, as observed in the secretory content inside exine cavities and around pollen grains; and (2) the secretory activity of stigmatic surface cells, whose secretion accumulates among intercellular and subcuticular spaces and leads to cuticle disruption during the floral receptive phase. Our results suggest that ultrastructural and histochemical studies should be considered when describing stigmatic surface and that the ""semidry"" feature within Asteraceae should be investigated still more in detail, so that the taxonomic or adaptation value of this trait in the family can be verified. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
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When the availability of sperm limits female reproductive success, competition for sperm, may be an important broker of sexual selection. This is because sperm limitation can increase the variance in female reproductive success, resulting in strong selection on females to compete for limited fertilization opportunities. Sperm limitation is probably common in broadcast-spawning marine invertebrates, making these excellent candidates for investigating scramble competition between broods of eggs and its consequences for female reproductive success. Here, we report our findings from a series of experiments that investigate egg competition in the sessile, broadcast-spawning polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa. We initially tested whether the order in which eggs encounter sperm affects their fertilization success at two ecologically relevant current regimes. We used a split-clutch-split-ejaculate technique to compare the fertilization success of eggs from individual females that had either first access (competition-free treatment) or second access (egg competition treatment) to a batch of sperm. We found that fertilization success depended on the order in which eggs accessed sperm; eggs that were assigned to the competition-free treatment exhibited significantly higher fertilization rates than those assigned to the egg competition treatment at both current speeds. In subsequent experiments we found that prior exposure of sperm to eggs significantly reduced both the quantity and quality of sperm available to fertilize a second clutch of eggs, resulting in reductions in fertilization success at high and low sperm concentrations. These findings suggest that female traits that increase the likelihood of sperm-egg interactions (e.g. egg size) will respond to selection imposed by egg competition.
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Objective: To target antigen-loaded liposomes to myeloid APC in vivo for immunotherapy and to manipulate immune function through liposome composition. Method: Liposomes were loaded with ovalbumin, the lipophilic red fluorescent marker, DiI, with or without QuilA adjuvant then injected either i.v. or s.c. to naı¨ ve C57Bl/6 mice. Spleen, liver and draining LN were stained with MHC class II and various myeloid markers to determine the uptake of liposomes. Frozen sections of spleen and draining LN were stained with FITC-labeled mAb to determine which cells take up the liposomes. To determine the effect on OVA-specific T cell responses, liposomes were administered to Balb/c mice which received DO11.10 OVAspecific TCR transgenic T cells labelled with CFSE. Results: The DiI fluorescence was visualized in MHC class II+ macrophages and DC in draining lymph nodes after s.c. injection and in spleen and liver after i.v injection. Immunofluorescence microscopy shows liposome uptake in marginal zone macrophages and some DC in the T cell areas of the spleen after i.v. injection. Administration of ova-liposomes with or without QuilA stimulated a specific T cell response as measured by CFSE dilution. Conclusion: APC of liver, spleen and LN, and subsequent antigen presentation to T cells can be targeted for immunotherapy by the administration of liposomes encapsulating antigen and adjuvant. Varying the composition and routes of liposome administration is expected to alter the function of the targeted APC and the T cell response.