Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Image Quality and Diagnostic Accuracy of MDCT Compared With Conventional Coronary Angiography for Detecting Coronary Artery Stenoses: CORE-64 Multicenter International Trial

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of the study was to investigate patient characteristics associated with image quality and their impact on the diagnostic accuracy of MDCT for the detection of coronary artery stenosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Two hundred ninety-one patients with a coronary artery calcification (CAC) score of <= 600 Agatston units (214 men and 77 women; mean age, 59.3 +/- 10.0 years [SD]) were analyzed. An overall image quality score was derived using an ordinal scale. The accuracy of quantitative MDCT to detect significant (>= 50%) stenoses was assessed using quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) per patient and per vessel using a modified 19-segment model. The effect of CAC, obesity, heart rate, and heart rate variability on image quality and accuracy were evaluated by multiple logistic regression. Image quality and accuracy were further analyzed in subgroups of significant predictor variables. Diagnostic analysis was determined for image quality strata using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS. Increasing body mass index (BMI) (odds ratio [OR] = 0.89, p < 0.001), increasing heart rate (OR = 0.90, p < 0.001), and the presence of breathing artifact (OR = 4.97, p = 0.001) were associated with poorer image quality whereas sex, CAC score, and heart rate variability were not. Compared with examinations of white patients, studies of black patients had significantly poorer image quality (OR = 0.58, p = 0.04). At a vessel level, CAC score (10 Agatston units) (OR = 1.03, p = 0.012) and patient age (OR = 1.02, p = 0.04) were significantly associated with the diagnostic accuracy of quantitative MDCT compared with QCA. A trend was observed in differences in the areas under the ROC curves across image quality strata at the vessel level (p = 0.08). CONCLUSION. Image quality is significantly associated with patient ethnicity, BMI, mean scan heart rate, and the presence of breathing artifact but not with CAC score at a patient level. At a vessel level, CAC score and age were associated with reduced diagnostic accuracy.

A decision support system to facilitate management of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pentafecta: A New Concept for Reporting Outcomes of Robot-Assisted Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy

Background: Widespread use of prostate-specific antigen screening has resulted in younger and healthier men being diagnosed with prostate cancer. Their demands and expectations of surgical intervention are much higher and cannot be adequately addressed with the classic trifecta outcome measures. Objective: A new and more comprehensive method for reporting outcomes after radical prostatectomy, the pentafecta, is proposed. Design, setting, and participants: From January 2008 through September 2009, details of 1111 consecutive patients who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy performed by a single surgeon were retrospectively analyzed. Of 626 potent men, 332 who underwent bilateral nerve sparing and who had 1 yr of follow-up were included in the study group. Measurements: In addition to the traditional trifecta outcomes, two perioperative variables were included in the pentafecta: no postoperative complications and negative surgical margins. Patients who attained the trifecta and concurrently the two additional outcomes were considered as having achieved the pentafecta. A logistic regression model was created to evaluate independent factors for achieving the pentafecta. Results and limitations: Continence, potency, biochemical recurrence-free survival, and trifecta rates at 12 mo were 96.4%, 89.8%, 96.4%, and 83.1%, respectively. With regard to the perioperative outcomes, 93.4% had no postoperative complication and 90.7% had negative surgical margins. The pentafecta rate at 12 mo was 70.8%. On multivariable analysis, patient age (p = 0.001) was confirmed as the only factor independently associated with the pentafecta. Conclusions: A more comprehensive approach for reporting prostate surgery outcomes, the pentafecta, is being proposed. We believe that pentafecta outcomes more accurately represent patients` expectations after minimally invasive surgery for prostate cancer. This approach may be beneficial and may be used when counseling patients with clinically localized disease. (C) 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Relationship Between Blood Pressure and Anthropometry in a Cohort of Brazilian Men: A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND Hypertension, a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, and obesity are becoming a health problem in many developed and developing countries, as Brazil. Although hypertension and obesity are both closely associated, there is no universal anthropometric marker of this association. This is probably due to distinct population characteristics, and in the case of Brazil, the highly heterogeneous population. We evaluated which anthropometric measurement closely relates to high blood pressure in a sample of Brazilian factory workers. METHODS A cross-sectional study was designed. In this study, multiple logistic regression and receiver operating characteristics analysis were performed in order to obtain the precise relevance of each anthropometric measurement as a blood pressure marker. Nine hundred and thirteen men, 36 +/- 8 years-old, were submitted to a standardized questionnaire of demographic and risk factors knowledge, anthropometric and conventional blood pressure measurements were taken, and blood sample evaluations of glucose, total cholesterol, LDL-Cholesterol, and triglycerides were performed. RESULTS Overweightness or obesity was identified in 64, 11.1% were smokers and hypertension was detected in 29.2% of the participants. A linear correlation was significant (P < 0.001) between both the systolic and diastolic blood pressure and all anthropometric measurements, except for the systolic blood pressure and waist-to-hip ratio. Waist circumference (WC) was the only independent anthropometric measurement related to hypertension. Hypertensive patients presented all anthropometric measurements larger than normotensives. CONCLUSIONS Age and WC were the only independent predictors of hypertension, indicating that this simple measurement may be useful as a marker of hypertension in the Brazilian male, younger adult population. Am J Hypertens 2009; 22:980-984 (C) 2009 American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd.

Risk of Potential Drug-Drug Interactions among Brazilian Elderly A Population-Based, Cross-Sectional Study

Background: Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are one of the main causes of adverse reactions related to medications, being responsible for up to 23% of hospital admissions. However, only a few studies have evaluated this problem in elderly Brazilians. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of potential DDIs (PDDIs) in community-dwelling elderly people in Brazil, analyse these interactions with regard to severity and clinical implications, and identify associated factors. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out involving 2143 elderly (aged 60 years) residents of the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data were obtained from the SABE (Saude, Bem estar e Envelhecimento [Health, Well-Being, and Aging]) survey, which is a multicentre study carried out in seven countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, coordinated by the Pan-American Health Organization. PDDIs were analysed using a computerized program and categorized according to level of severity, onset, mechanism and documentation in the literature. The STATA software statistical package was used for data analysis, and logistic regression was conducted to determine whether variables were associated with PDDIs. Results: Analysis revealed that 568 (26.5%) of the elderly population included in the study were taking medications that could lead to a DDI. Almost two-thirds (64.4%) of the elderly population exposed to PDDIs were women, 50.7% were aged >= 75 years, 71.7% reported having fair or poor health and 65.8% took 2-5 medications. A total of 125 different PDDIs were identified; the treatment combination of an ACE inhibitor with a thiazide or loop diuretic (associated with hypotension) was the most frequent cause of PDDIs (n=322 patients; 56.7% of individuals with PDDIs). Analysis of the PDDIs revealed that 70.4% were of moderate severity, 64.8% were supported by good quality evidence and 56.8% were considered of delayed onset. The multivariate analysis showed that the risk of a PDDI was significantly increased among elderly individuals using six or more medications (odds ratio [OR] 3.37) and in patients with hypertension (OR 2.56), diabetes mellitus (OR 1.73) or heart problems (OR 3.36). Conclusions: Approximately one-quarter of the elderly population living in Sao Paulo could be taking two or more potentially interacting medicines. Polypharmacy predisposes elderly individuals to PDDIs. More than half of these drug combinations (57.6%, n = 72) were part of commonly employed treatment regimens and may be responsible for adverse reactions that compromise the safety of elderly individuals, especially at home. Educational initiatives are needed to avoid unnecessary risks.

Violence between intimate partners and alcohol use: prevalence and associated factors

Objective. To estimate physical violence between intimate partners and to examine the association between violence and sociodemographic variables, use of alcohol, and other related factors. Method. This epidemiologic survey included a stratified probabilistic sample representative of the population from the city of Sao Paulo in economic and educational terms. The Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) questionnaire was employed. The sampling unit was the home, where all individuals older than 18 years were candidates for interview. The final sample included 1 631 people. Statistical analysis employed the Rao Scott test and logistic regression. Results. The response rate was 74.5%. Most participants were female (58.8%), younger than 40 years of age (52%), or had 5 to 12 years of schooling. Of the overall group, 5.4% reported having been victims of physical violence by an intimate partner and 5.4% declared having been aggressors of intimate partners in the past 2 years. Most men declared that none of those involved had ingested alcohol at the moment of aggression. Most women reported that nobody or only the man had drunk. Being a victim or an aggressor was associated with younger age and having a heavy-drinking partner. Women suffered more serious aggression, requiring medical care, and expressed more anger and disgust at aggression than men. Conclusions. The results underscore the importance of the association between alcohol use and risk of aggression between intimate partners, and may contribute to the design of public policies aimed to control this situation.

Presence of MRI-detected joint effusion and synovitis increases the risk of cartilage loss in knees without osteoarthritis at 30-month follow-up: the MOST study

Objective To evaluate if two different measures of synovial activation, baseline Hoffa synovitis and effusion synovitis, assessed by MRI, predict cartilage loss in the tibiofemoral joint at 30 months follow-up in subjects with neither cartilage damage nor tibiofemoral radiographic osteoarthritis of the knee. Methods Non-contrast-enhanced MRI was performed using proton density-weighted fat-suppressed sequences in the axial and sagittal planes and a short tau inversion recovery sequence in the coronal plane. Hoffa synovitis, effusion synovitis and cartilage status were assessed semiquantitatively according to the WORMS scoring system. Included were knees that had neither radiographic osteoarthritis nor MRI-detected tibiofemoral cartilage damage at the baseline visit. The presence of Hoffa synovitis was defined as any grade = 2 (range 0-3) and effusion synovitis as any grade = 2 (range 0-3). Logistic regression was performed to examine the relation of the presence of either measure to the risk of cartilage loss at 30 months adjusting for other potential confounders. Results Of 514 knees included in the analysis, the prevalence of Hoffa synovitis and effusion synovitis at the baseline visit was 8.4% and 10.3%, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, baseline effusion synovitis was associated with an increased risk of cartilage loss. No such association was observed for baseline Hoffa synovitis. Conclusions Baseline effusion synovitis, but not Hoffa synovitis, predicted cartilage loss. The findings suggest that effusion synovitis, a reflection of inflammatory activity including joint effusion and synovitic thickening, may play a role in the future development of cartilage lesions in knees without osteoarthritis.

Oral mucositis in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: analysis of 169 paediatric patients

Chemotherapy-induced oral mucositis is a frequent therapeutic challenge in cancer patients. The purpose of this retrospective study was to estimate the prevalence and risk factors of oral mucositis in 169 acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) patients treated according to different chemotherapeutic trials at the Darcy Vargas Children`s Hospital from 1994 to 2005. Demographic data, clinical history, chemotherapeutic treatment and patients` follow-up were recorded. The association of oral mucositis with age, gender, leucocyte counts at diagnosis and treatment was assessed by the chi-squared test and multivariate regression analysis. Seventy-seven ALL patients (46%) developed oral mucositis during the treatment. Patient age (P = 0.33), gender (P = 0.08) and leucocyte counts at diagnosis (P = 0.34) showed no correlation with the occurrence of oral mucositis. Multivariate regression analysis showed a significant risk for oral mucositis (P = 0.009) for ALL patients treated according to the ALL-BFM-95 protocol. These results strongly suggest the greater stomatotoxic effect of the ALL-BFM-95 trial when compared with Brazilian trials. We concluded that chemotherapy-induced oral mucositis should be systematically analysed prospectively in specialized centres for ALL treatment to establish the degree of toxicity of chemotherapeutic drugs and to improve the quality of life of patients based on more effective therapeutic and prophylactic approaches for prevention of its occurrence. Oral Diseases (2008) 14, 761-766

Sun exposure and interaction with family history in risk of melanoma, Queensland, Australia

Sun exposure is the main environmental risk factor for melanoma, but the timing of exposure during life that confers increased risk is controversial. Here we provide the first report of the association between lifetime and age-specific cumulative ultraviolet exposure and cutaneous melanoma in Queensland, Australia, an area of high solar radiation, and examine the association separately for families at high, intermediate and low familial melanoma risk. Subjects were a population-based sample of melanoma cases diagnosed and registered in Queensland between 1982 and 1990 and their relatives. The analysis included 1,263 cases and relatives with confirmed cutaneous melanoma and 3,111 first-degree relatives without melanoma as controls. Data an lifetime residence and sun exposure, family history and other melanoma risk factors were collected by a mailed questionnaire. Using conditional multiple logistic regression with stratification by family, cumulative sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood after age 20 was significantly associated with melanoma, with estimated relative risks of 1.15 per 5,000 minimal erythemal doses (MEDs) from age 5 to 12 years, and 1.52 per 5 MEDs/day from age 20. There was no association with sun exposure in families at high familial melanoma risk. History of nonmelanoma skin cancer (relative risk [RR] = 1.26) and multiple sunburns (RR = 1.31) were significant risk factors. These findings indicate that sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood are important determinants of melanoma but not in those rare families with high melanoma susceptibility, in which genetic factors are likely to be more important. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Geographical variation in the penetrance of CDKN2A mutations for melanoma

Background: Germline mutations in the CDKN2A gene, which encodes two proteins (p16INK4A and p14ARF), are the most common cause of inherited susceptibility to melanoma. We examined the penetrance of such mutations using data from eight groups from Europe, Australia and the United States that are part of The Melanoma Genetics Consortium Methods: We analyzed 80 families with documented CDKN2A mutations and multiple cases of cutaneous melanoma. We modeled penetrance for melanoma using a logistic regression model incorporating survival analysis. Hypothesis testing was based on likelihood ratio tests. Covariates included gender, alterations in p14APF protein, and population melanoma incidence rates. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The 80 analyzed families contained 402 melanoma patients, 320 of whom were tested for mutations and 291 were mutation carriers. We also tested 713 unaffected family members for mutations and 194 were carriers. Overall, CDKN2A mutation penetrance was estimated to be 0.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12 to 0.62) by age 50 years and 0.67 (95% CI = 0.31 to 0.96) by age 80 years. Penetrance was not statistically significantly modified by gender or by whether the CDKN2A mutation altered p14ARF protein. However, there was a statistically significant effect of residing in a location with a high population incidence rate of melanoma (P = .003). By age 50 years CDKN2A mutation penetrance reached 0.13 in Europe, 0.50 in the United States, and 0.32 in Australia; by age 80 years it was 0.58 in Europe, 0.76 in the United States, and 0.91 in Australia. Conclusions: This study, which gives the most informed estimates of CDKN2A mutation penetrance available, indicates that the penetrance varies with melanoma population incidence rates. Thus, the same factors that affect population incidence of melanoma may also mediate CDKN2A penetrance.

Effect of functional gain on satisfaction with medical rehabilitation after stroke

Objective: To examine the association between gain in motor and cognitive functional status with patient satisfaction 3-6 mo after rehabilitation discharge. Design: Patient satisfaction and changes in functional status were examined in 18,375 patients with stroke who received inpatient medical rehabilitation. Information was obtained from 144 hospitals and rehabilitation facilities contributing records to the Uniform Data System for Medical Rehabilitation and the National Follow-up Services. Results: Data analysis revealed significant (P < 0.05) differences in satisfaction responses based on whether information was collected from patient self-report or from a family member proxy, and the two subsets were analyzed separately. Logistic regression revealed the following significant predictors of satisfaction for data collected from stroke patients: cognitive and motor gain, rehospitalization, who the patient was living with at follow-up, age, and follow-up therapy. In the patient-reported data subset, compared with patients who showed improved cognitive or motor functional status, those with no change, respectively, had a 31% and 33% reduced risk of dissatisfaction. In addition, rehospitalized patients had a higher risk of dissatisfaction. For the proxy reported data subset, significant influences on satisfaction were health maintenance, rehospitalization, stroke type, ethnicity, cognitive FIM(TM) gain, length of stay, and follow-up therapy. Conclusions: Ratings of satisfaction with rehabilitation services were affected by change in functional status and whether the information was collected from patient rating or proxy response.

Complicações perinatais no Hospital Universitário Cassiano Antonio de Moraes: uma questão de idade?

A população brasileira vem passando por uma transição demográfica e epidemiológica, caracterizadas por aumento na expectativa de vida, diminuições nas taxas de mortalidade, natalidade e fecundidade, aumento da escolaridade, diminuição do desemprego, aumento das enfermidades crônico-degenerativas e diminuição das enfermidades infectocontagiosas. Tais transições vêm afetando também a perinatologia, com aumento proporcional e absoluto das gestações tardias tanto no Espírito Santo quanto no Brasil. Este estudo realizou uma análise retrospectiva das gestações tardias no HUCAM, comparando as mesmas com as gestações de mulheres adolescentes e adultas jovens quanto aos seguintes desfechos perinatais: anomalia fetal, hipóxia no primeiro e quinto minuto de vida, duração da gestação, peso ao nascer e tipo de parto. As variáveis foram analisadas categoricamente, e comparadas através de análise bivariada, utilizando-se o Teste Exato de Fisher, e através de regressão logística. Na análise bivariada, foi encontrada apenas associação entre a idade materna e o tipo de parto, mas esta associação não foi confirmada na regressão logística. Analisando outros fatores relativos à gestação, restou evidenciado uma associação positiva entre um menor número de consultas pré-natais e uma maior frequência de hipóxia no recém-nascido e de prematuridade (odds ratio de 2,9 e 5,7, respectivamente). Ao final deste trabalho são elaboradas propostas para aprimoramento da coleta e do armazenamento de dados acerca da gestação no HUCAM, e para otimização da assistência pré-natal das gestantes atendidas pelo hospital, visando melhorar os desfechos perinatais encontrados.

Prevalência e fatores associados à infecção pelo M. tuberculosis entre agentes comunitários de saúde

Introdução: A tuberculose é uma doença milenar e que, ainda hoje, constitui grave problema de saúde pública em todo o mundo. Objetivo: Estimar a prevalência e os fatores associados à infecção latente pelo MTB entre Agentes Comunitários de Saúde atuantes na rede básica de saúde de Municípios prioritários para o controle de TB – Cuiabá/MT, Manaus/AM, Salvador/BA e Vitória/ES. Métodos: Estudo de corte transversal no qual os dados foram coletados através de questionário, composto de questões abertas e fechadas sobre características pessoais; informações a respeito da tuberculose; utilização de medidas preventivas, etc. Aplicou-se prova tuberculínica, com leitura após 48-72h por enfermeiros treinados, considerando como ponte de corte positivo 5 e 10 mm de enduração. A análise múltipla foi feita por meio de regressão logística hierarquica. Foram incluídas no modelo as variáveis que mostraram associação com desfecho com p<0,1. Permaneceram no modelo as variáveis independentes que mantiveram associação com desfecho após ajuste (p<0,05). Este estudo obteve aprovação do Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa com seres humanos do Centro de Ciências da Saúde da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, n° de registro CEP-07/2010 e das Secretarias Municipais de Saúde, por meio de uma Carta de Apresentação. Resultados: 322 Agentes Comunitários de Saúde (ACS) aceitaram participar voluntariamente do estudo por meio da assinatura do Termo de Consentimento Livre e Esclarecido. Destes, 10 não compareceram para leitura, sendo estes considerados como perdas, além do que um indivíduo foi excluído pelo fato do teste rápido para HIV ter resultado positivo, perfazendo uma amostra final de 311 participantes. Ainda em relação aos ACS triados, a positividade a Prova Tuberculínica, levando-se em consideração o ponto de corte ao teste de 10 mm e de 5 mm de enduração, foi de 37,30% (IC95%: 0,31-0,42) e de 57,88% (IC95%: 0,52-0,63), respectivamente.Conclusões: Faz-se necessário um programa de realização de Prova Tuberculínica, de rotina, combinado com intervenções para reduzir o risco de transmissão nosocomial, bem como a realização de outros estudos para avaliar a eficácia de novos testes para detecção de tuberculose latente.

O impacto da exposição a experiências adversas na infância na ocorrência de dor crônica e depressão na vida adulta

A associação entre experiências adversas na infância e o desencadeamento de depressão ou dor crônica na vida adulta tem sido documentada, assim como a relação entre os sintomas de dor crônica e depressão. No entanto, há poucos estudos avaliando o papel da exposição a experiências adversas na infância na ocorrência dessa comorbidade. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a influência da exposição a experiências adversas na infância na ocorrência de dor crônica, de depressão e na comorbidade dor crônica e depressão na vida adulta, em uma amostra da população geral adulta (maiores de 18 anos) residente na Região metropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil. Os dados são resultantes do Estudo Epidemiológicos dos Transtornos Mentais São Paulo Megacity. Os respondentes foram avaliados usando a versão desenvolvida para o Estudo Mundial de Saúde Mental do Composite International Diagnostic Interview da Organização Mundial da Saúde (WMH-CIDI), que é composto por módulos clínicos e nãoclínicos provendo diagnósticos de acordo com os critérios do Manual Diagnóstico e Estatístico dos Transtornos Mentais 4ª edição (DSM-IV). Um total de 5.037 indivíduos foi entrevistado, com uma taxa global de resposta de 81,3%. Foram realizadas análises descritivas para médias e proporções, e associações (Razões de Chances – OR) entre experiências adversas na infância, dor crônica e depressão através de regressão logística. Todas as análises foram realizadas através do programa estatístico Data Analysis and Statistical Software versão 12.0 (STATA 12.0), com testes bi-caudais com nível de significância de 5%. Uma elevada taxa de prevalência de dor crônica (31%, Erro Padrão [ER]=0.8) foi encontrada, Dor Crônica esteve associada aos transtornos de ansiedade (OR=2,3; 95% IC=1,9 – 3,0), transtornos de humor (OR=3,3; IC=2,6 – 4,4) em qualquer transtorno mental (OR=2,7; 95% IC=2,3 – 3,3). As adversidades na infância estiveram fortemente associadas aos respondentes com dor crônica e depressão concomitante, principalmente quanto ao abuso físico (OR=2,7; 95% IC=2,1 – 3,5) e sexual (OR=7,4; 95% IC=3,4 – 16,1).

Análise espacial do padrão de introdução e disseminação da dengue nos municípios do Espírito Santo

O número de municípios infestados pelo Aedes aegypti no Estado do Espírito Santo vem aumentando gradativamente, levando a altas taxas de incidência de dengue ao longo dos anos. Apesar das tentativas de combate à doença, esta se tornou uma das maiores preocupações na saúde pública do Estado. Este estudo se propõe a descrever a dinâmica da expansão da doença no Estado a partir da associação entre variáveis ambientais e populacionais, utilizando dados operacionalizados por meio de técnicas de geoprocessamento. O estudo utilizou como fonte de dados a infestação pelo mosquito vetor e o coeficiente de incidência da doença, as distâncias rodoviárias intermunicipais do Estado, a altitude dos municípios e as variáveis geoclimáticas (temperatura e suficiência de água), incorporadas a uma ferramenta operacional, as Unidades Naturais do Espírito Santo (UNES), representadas em um único mapa operacionalizado em Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG), obtido a partir do Sistema Integrado de Bases Georreferenciadas do Estado do Espírito Santo. Para análise dos dados, foi realizada a Regressão de Poisson para os dados de incidência de dengue e Regressão Logística para os de infestação pelo vetor. Em seguida, os dados de infestação pelo mosquito e incidência de dengue foram georreferenciados, utilizando como ferramenta operacional o SIG ArcGIS versão 9.2. Observou-se que a pluviosidade é um fator que contribui para o surgimento de mosquito em áreas não infestadas. Altas temperaturas contribuem para um alto coeficiente de incidência de dengue nos municípios capixabas. A variável distância em relação a municípios populosos é um fator de proteção para a incidência da doença. A grande variabilidade encontrada nos dados, que não é explicada pelas variáveis utilizadas no modelo para incidência da doença, reforça a premissa de que a dengue é condicionada pela interação dinâmica entre muitas variáveis que o estudo não abordou. A espacialização dos dados de infestação pelo mosquito e incidência de dengue e as Zonas Naturais do ES permitiu a visualização da influência das variáveis estatisticamente significantes nos modelos utilizados no padrão da introdução e disseminação da doença no Estado.