984 resultados para logic and contingency in history


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Charcoal in unlaminated sediments dated by 210Pb was analysed by the pollen-slide and thin-section methods. The results were compared with the number and area of forest fires on different spatial scales in the area around Lago di Origlio as listed in the wildfire database of southern Switzerland since AD 1920. The influx of the number of charcoal particles > 75 µm2 in pollen slides correlates well with the number of annual forest fires recorded within a distance of 20-50 km from the coring site. Hence a size-class distinction or an area measurement by image analysis may not be absolutely necessary for the reconstruction of regional fire history. A regression equation was computed and tested against an independent data set. Its use makes it possible to estimate the charcoal area influx (or concentration) from the particle number influx (or concentration). Local fires within a radius of 2 km around the coring site correlate well with the area influx of charcoal particles estimated by the thin-section method measuring the area of charcoal particles larger than 20 000 µm2 or longer than 50 µm. Pollen percentages and influx values suggest that intensive agriculture and Castanea sativa cultivation were reduced 30-40 years ago, followed by an increase of forest area and a development to more natural woodlands. The traditional Castanea sativa cultivation was characterized by a complete use of the biomass produced, so abandonment of chestnut led to an increasing accumulation of dead biomass, thereby raising the fire risk. On the other hand, the pollen record of the regional vegetation does not show any clear response to the increase of fire frequency during the last three decades in this area.

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OBJECTIVE To describe all patients admitted to children's hospitals in Switzerland with a diagnosis of influenza A/H1N1/09 virus infection during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and to analyse their characteristics, predictors of complications, and outcome. METHODS All patients ≤18-years-old hospitalised in eleven children's hospitals in Switzerland between June 2009 and January 2010 with a positive influenza A/H1N1/09 reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from a nasopharyngeal specimen were included. RESULTS There were 326 PCR-confirmed patients of whom 189 (58%) were younger than 5 years of age, and 126 (38.7%) had one or more pre-existing medical condition. Fever (median 39.1 °C) was the most common sign (85.6% of all patients), while feeding problems (p = 0.003) and febrile seizures (p = 0.016) were significantly more frequent in children under 5 years. In 142 (43.6%) patients there was clinical suspicion of a concomitant bacterial infection, which was confirmed in 36 patients (11%). However, severe bacterial infection was observed in 4% of patients. One third (n = 108, 33.1%) of the patients were treated with oseltamivir, 64 (59.3%, or 20% overall) within 48 hours of onset of symptoms. Almost half of the patients (45.1%) received antibiotics for a median of 7 days. Twenty patients (6.1%) required intensive care, mostly for complicated pneumonia (50%) without an underlying medical condition. The median duration of hospitalisation was 2 days (range 0-39) for 304 patients. Two children (<15 months of age with underlying disease) died. CONCLUSIONS Although pandemic influenza A/H1N1/09 virus infection in children is mostly mild, it can be severe, regardless of past history or underlying disease.

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Tricho-rhino-phalangeal syndrome (TRPS) is characterized by craniofacial and skeletal abnormalities, and subdivided in TRPS I, caused by mutations in TRPS1, and TRPS II, caused by a contiguous gene deletion affecting (amongst others) TRPS1 and EXT1. We performed a collaborative international study to delineate phenotype, natural history, variability, and genotype-phenotype correlations in more detail. We gathered information on 103 cytogenetically or molecularly confirmed affected individuals. TRPS I was present in 85 individuals (22 missense mutations, 62 other mutations), TRPS II in 14, and in 5 it remained uncertain whether TRPS1 was partially or completely deleted. Main features defining the facial phenotype include fine and sparse hair, thick and broad eyebrows, especially the medial portion, a broad nasal ridge and tip, underdeveloped nasal alae, and a broad columella. The facial manifestations in patients with TRPS I and TRPS II do not show a significant difference. In the limbs the main findings are short hands and feet, hypermobility, and a tendency for isolated metacarpals and metatarsals to be shortened. Nails of fingers and toes are typically thin and dystrophic. The radiological hallmark are the cone-shaped epiphyses and in TRPS II multiple exostoses. Osteopenia is common in both, as is reduced linear growth, both prenatally and postnatally. Variability for all findings, also within a single family, can be marked. Morbidity mostly concerns joint problems, manifesting in increased or decreased mobility, pain and in a minority an increased fracture rate. The hips can be markedly affected at a (very) young age. Intellectual disability is uncommon in TRPS I and, if present, usually mild. In TRPS II intellectual disability is present in most but not all, and again typically mild to moderate in severity. Missense mutations are located exclusively in exon 6 and 7 of TRPS1. Other mutations are located anywhere in exons 4-7. Whole gene deletions are common but have variable breakpoints. Most of the phenotype in patients with TRPS II is explained by the deletion of TRPS1 and EXT1, but haploinsufficiency of RAD21 is also likely to contribute. Genotype-phenotype studies showed that mutations located in exon 6 may have somewhat more pronounced facial characteristics and more marked shortening of hands and feet compared to mutations located elsewhere in TRPS1, but numbers are too small to allow firm conclusions.

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Throughout human history, religion and politics have entertained the most intimate of connections as systems of authority regulating individuals and society. While the two have come apart through the process of secularization, secularism is challenged today by the return of public religion. This cogent analysis unravels the nature of the connection, disconnection, and attempted reconnection between religion and politics in the West. In a comparison of Western Europe and North America, Christianity and Islam, Joppke advances far-reaching theoretical, historical, and comparative-political arguments. With respect to theory, it is argued that only a “substantive” concept of religion, as pertaining to the existence of supra-human powers, opens up the possibility of a historical-comparative perspective on religion. At the level of history, secularization is shown to be the distinct outcome of Latin Christianity itself. And at the level of comparative politics, the Christian Right in America which has attacked the “wall of separation” between religion and state and Islam in Europe with the controversial insistence on sharia law and other “illiberal” claims from some quarters are taken to be counterpart incarnations of public religion and challenges to the secular state. This clearly argued, sweeping book will provide an invaluable framework for approaching an array of critical issues at the intersection of religion, law and politics for advanced students and researchers across the social sciences and legal studies, as well as for the interested public.

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The spatial distributions of species of tree ≥10 cm gbh were examined in two 4 ha plots and related to the local variation in topography and soil chemistry. The plots were similar in their species composition, particularly in terms of the densities of small trees, and they showed very similar edaphic characteristics. Size class distributions varied little within and between plots. Ordination of 0.25 ha subplots highlighted parallel gradients in the vegetation of both plots when the densities of trees ≥10 cm gbh were considered. Focusing on understorey trees in the 10-<50 cm gbh class at the 0.04 ha subplot scale showed a similar vegetation gradient in both plots closely associated with change from lower slope to ridge. No relationship with soil chemistry was found. On the ridges a special group of understorey species formed clumps and these species contributed importantly to the ordinations. Borneo has a regional history of occasionally severe droughts. It is suggested here that the observed patterns in the understorey are due to differential responses to low soil water supply, the ridges probably tending to dryness more than the lower slopes. Within the large and diverse family Euphorbiaceae, which dominates the understorey at Danum, there may be ecophysiological groupings of species. The long-term effects of disturbance interacting with local edaphic factors on forest structure and composition are discussed.

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(beginning of rainbow smelt executive summary) Evidence indicates that anadromous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) populations in Connecticut and elsewhere in the northeast United States have severely declined. Several sampling programs have documented declines in Connecticut’s smelt populations over the last three decades (Marcy 1976a, Marcy 1976b, Millstone Environmental Laboratory 2005). Similar declines have also been documented in the Hudson River (ASA Analysis & Communication 2005) and in Massachusetts (personal communication, Brad Chase, MA Division of Marine Fisheries 2004). Recreational and commercial fisheries in the region for this species have virtually ceased (Blake and Smith 1984). The Connecticut Fish Advisory Committee of the Endangered Species Program has recommended that rainbow smelt be listed as threatened in Connecticut, and the National Marine Fisheries Service (2004) has recently listed rainbow smelt as a Federal Species of Concern. The purpose of this project is to develop an environmental history of rainbow smelt in Connecticut and surrounding regions, and document the current status of populations in Connecticut waters. An environmental history that assesses trends in abundance, environmental threats and historical efforts to ameliorate the threats will contribute to regional efforts to conserve these fish. Comprehensive review of the regional literature and trends associated with rainbow smelt has not been undertaken since Kendall (1926). Assessment of current abundance, distribution, areas of critical habitat, and whether the species is presently reproducing in state waters is critical for clarifying conservation status, designing a monitoring program and developing a recovery or enhancement plan, if this appears to be necessary. (beginning of tomcod executive summary) Atlantic tomcod (Microgadus tomcod) are believed to have declined significantly in Connecticut and other estuaries of the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states. Several monitoring programs indicate that the species is scarce and/or declining in the region’s estuaries (Gottschall and Pacileo 2004, Molnar 2004, Millstone Environmental Laboratory 2005, ASA Analysis and Communication 2005). Once-active recreational (NMFS MRFSS 2005, http://www.st.nmfs.gov) and commercial fisheries for this species in Connecticut are now dormant. For the past 10 years, the Connecticut Fish Advisory Committee of the Endangered Species Program has recommended that studies be undertaken to quantify the status of tomcod populations and to determine if conservation actions should be initiated. The purpose of this project is to develop an environmental history of Atlantic tomcod in Connecticut and surrounding regions, and document the current status of populations in Connecticut waters. An environmental history that assesses trends in abundance, environmental threats and historical efforts to ameliorate the threats will contribute to regional efforts to conserve these fish. Assessment of current abundance, distribution, areas of critical habitat, and whether the species is presently reproducing in state waters is critical for determining conservation status, designing a monitoring program and developing a recovery or enhancement plan, if this appears to be necessary.

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Recent monetary history has been characterized by monetary authorities which have been, alternatively hard and soft on inflation. In a vintage capital framework, investment decisions are not easily reversed. Therefore, expectations of policy as well as current policy are important to the investment decision. Here, a vintage capital model is used to assess the value of central bank credibility for a policy change. Policy in this model is assumed to be private information of the central banker. Agents learn about that policy which to study the ensuing transitional dynamics following a change in monetary policy regime.

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Methods of tax collection employed by modern governments seem dull when compared to the rich variety observed in history. Whereas most governments today typically use salaried agents to collect taxes, various other types of contractual relationships have been observed in history, including sharing arrangements which divide the tax revenue between the government and collectors at fixed proportions, negotiated payment schemes based on the tax base, and sale of the revenue to a collector in exchange for a lump-sum payment determined at auction. We propose an economic theory of tax collection that can coherently explain the temporal and spatial variation in contractual forms. We begin by offering a simple classification of tax collection schemes observed in history. We then develop a general economic model of tax collection that specifies the cost and benefits of alternative schemes and identifies the conditions under which a government would choose one contractual form over another in maximizing the net revenue. Finally, we use the conclusions of the model to explain some of the well-known patterns of tax collection observed in history and how choices varied over time and space.

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by Sir George Grey, late governor-in-chief in New Zealand