Coexistence of interacting opinions in a generalized Sznajd model

The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that mimics the propagation of opinions in a closed society, where the interactions favor groups of agreeing people. It is based in the Ising and Potts ferromagnetic models and, although the original model used only linear chains, it has since been adapted to general networks. This model has a very rich transient, which has been used to model several aspects of elections, but its stationary states are always consensus states. In order to model more complex behaviors, we have, in a recent work, introduced the idea of biases and prejudices to the Sznajd model by generalizing the bounded confidence rule, which is common to many continuous opinion models, to what we called confidence rules. In that work we have found that the mean field version of this model (corresponding to a complete network) allows for stationary states where noninteracting opinions survive, but never for the coexistence of interacting opinions. In the present work, we provide networks that allow for the coexistence of interacting opinions for certain confidence rules. Moreover, we show that the model does not become inactive; that is, the opinions keep changing, even in the stationary regime. This is an important result in the context of understanding how a rule that breeds local conformity is still able to sustain global diversity while avoiding a frozen stationary state. We also provide results that give some insights on how this behavior approaches the mean field behavior as the networks are changed.

Definindo a arena política local: sistemas partidários municipais na federação brasileira

This article analyzes the Brazilian political system from the local perspective. Following Cox (1997), we review the problems with electoral coordination that emerge from a given institutional framework. Due to the characteristics of the Brazilian Federal system and its electoral rules, linkage between the three levels of government is not guaranteed a priori, but demands a coordinating effort by the parties' leadership. According to our hypothesis, the parties are capable of coordinating their election strategies at different levels in the party system. Regression models based on two-stage least squares (2SLS) and TOBIT, analyzing a panel of Brazilian municipalities with data from the 1994 and 2000 elections, show that the proportion of votes received by a party in a given election correlates closely with its previous votes in majoritarian elections. Despite institutional incentives, the Brazilian party system shows evidence that it is organized nationally to the extent that it links the competition for votes at the three levels of government (National, State, and Municipal).

THE IMPORTANCE OF DISAGREEING: CONTRARIANS AND EXTREMISM IN THE CODA MODEL

In this paper, we study the effects of introducing contrarians in a model of Opinion Dynamics where the agents have internal continuous opinions, but exchange information only about a binary choice that is a function of their continuous opinion, the CODA model. We observe that the hung election scenario that arises when contrarians are introduced in discrete opinion models still happens. However, it is weaker and it should not be expected in every election. Finally, we also show that the introduction of contrarians make the tendency towards extremism of the original model weaker, indicating that the existence of agents that prefer to disagree might be an important aspect and help society to diminish extremist opinions.

Communism and Public Opinion in Queensland, 1939-1951 : An Explanation of Queensland's Vote in the 1951 Anti-Communist Referendum

The starting point of this thesis was a desire to explain the rapid demise in the popularity which the Communist Party enjoyed in Queensland during the second world war. Wartime Queensland gave the Australian Communist Party its highest state vote and six years later Queensland again gave the Communist Party its highest state vote - this time however, to ban the Party. From this I was led into exploring the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party, as well as the many sub-groups on its periphery, and the shifts in public response to these. In 1939 Townsville elected Australia's first Communist alderman. Five years later, Bowen elected not only Australia's first but also the British Empire's first, Communist state government member. Of the five electorates the Australian Communist Party contested in the 1944 Queensland State elections, in none did the Party's candidate receive less than twenty per-cent of the formal vote. Not only was the Party seemingly enjoying considerable popular support but this was occurring in a State which, but for the Depression years (May 1929 - June 1932) had elected a Labor State Government at every state election since 1915. In the September 1951 Constitution Alteration Referendum, 'Powers To Deal With Communists and Communism', Queensland regist¬ered the nation's highest "Yes" majority - 55.76% of the valid vote. Only two other states registered a majority in favour of the referendum's proposals, Western Australia and Tasmania. As this research was undertaken it became evident that while various trends exhibited at the time, anti-Communism, the work of the Industrial Groups, Labor opportunism, local area feelings, ideological shifts of the Party, tactics of Communist-led unions, etc., were present throughout the entire period, they were best seen when divided into three chronological phases of the Party's history and popularity. The first period covers the consolidation of the Party's post-Depression popularity during the war years as it benefited from the Soviet Union's colossal contribution to the Allied war efforts, and this support continued for some six months or so after the war. Throughout the period Communist strength within the trade union movement greatly increased as did total Party membership. The second period was marked by a rapid series of events starting in March 1946, with Winston Churchill's "Official Opening" of the Cold War by his sweeping attack on Communism and Russia, at Fulton. Several days later the first of a series of long and bitter strikes in Communist-led unions occurred, as the Party mobil¬ized for what it believed would be a series of attacks on the working class from a ruling class, defending a capitalist system on the verge of an economic collapse. It was a period when the Party believed this ruling class was using Labor reformism as a last desperate 'carrot' to get workers to accept their lot within a capitalist economic framework. Out of the Meat Strike emerged the Industrial Groups, who waged not only a determined war against Communist trade union leadership but also encouraged the A.W.U.-influenced State Labor apparatus to even greater anti-Communist antagonisms. The Communist Party's increasing militancy and Labor's resistance to it, ended finally in the collapse of the Chifley Labor government. Characteristically the third period opens with the Communist Party making an another about-face, desperately trying to form an alliance with the Labor Party and curbing its former adventurist industrial policy, as it prepared for Menzies' direct assault. The Communist Party's activities were greatly reduced, a function of both a declining member-ship and, furthermore, a membership reluctant to confront an increasingly hostile society. In examining the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party and the shifts in public response to these, I have tried to distinguish between general trends occurring within Australia and the national party, and trends peculiar to Queensland and the Queensland branch of the Party, The Communist Party suffered a decline in support and membership right across Australia throughout this period as a result of the national policies of the Party, and the changing nature of world politics. There were particular features of this decline that were peculiar to Queensland. I have, however, singled out three features of particular importance throughout the period for a short but more specifically detailed analysis, than would be possible in a purely chronological study: i.e. the Party's structure, the Party's ideological subservience to Moscow, and the general effect upon it of the Cold War.

Compliance aware business process design

Historically, business process design has been driven by business objectives, specifically process improvement. However this cannot come at the price of control objectives which stem from various legislative, standard and business partnership sources. Ensuring the compliance to regulations and industrial standards is an increasingly important issue in the design of business processes. In this paper, we advocate that control objectives should be addressed at an early stage, i.e., design time, so as to minimize the problems of runtime compliance checking and consequent violations and penalties. To this aim, we propose supporting mechanisms for business process designers. This paper specifically presents a support method which allows the process designer to quantitatively measure the compliance degree of a given process model against a set of control objectives. This will allow process designers to comparatively assess the compliance degree of their design as well as be better informed on the cost of non-compliance.

Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities

This paper uses a new panel of more than 2,000 Brazilian municipalities over 13 years to analyze the influence of public expenditures on the probability of mayors` reelection. We examine Brazilian municipal elections from 1988 to 2000 using a logit fixed-effects model. The results suggest that mayors who spend more during their terms of office increase the probability of their own reelection or of a successor of the same political party. In particular, higher capital spending over the years preceding elections and current expenditures in election years are beneficial to Brazilian incumbent mayors.

Assessment of Occupational Genotoxic Risk among Brazilian Hairdressers

Objectives: To evaluate the genotoxic risk to hairdressers exposed daily to chemical substances such as hair dyes, waving and straightening preparations and manicurists` products by the Comet assay test (single-cell gel electrophoresis). Methods: The Comet assay was performed on blood samples from 69 female hairdressers (36.4 +/- 10.7 years old) currently employed in 21 different beauty institutes in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and on 55 female control blood donors (32.6 +/- 10.0 years old) from the Sao Paulo University Clinical Hospital blood bank. All the control subjects had occupations other than hairdresser. Comet assays were performed by evaluating 100 blood lymphocytes per individual and graded by visual score according to comet tail length. Results: The hairdressers showed a higher frequency of DNA damage revealed by Comet Score (159.8 +/- 71) when compared to the control group (125.4 +/- 64.1), and the difference was statistically significant by the Student`s t-test (P = 0.005). Multiple regression analysis showed that in addition to the hairdressers` profession, tobacco use contributed to the higher frequency of cells with comets (P < 0.05). Conclusions: The observed DNA damage could be associated with the hairdressers` occupational environment, where different chemicals are chronically manipulated and inhaled. Considering that this profession in many countries, including Brazil, is not officially regulated, more attention should focus on these professionals not only by legislative bodies but also by multidisciplinary teams able to develop and implement risk prevention and control strategies for chemical, physical and biological agents to which hairdressers are exposed.

Health in Brazil 4 Chronic non-communicable diseases in Brazil: burden and current challenges

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become a major health priority in Brazil-72% of all deaths were attributable to NCDs in 2007. They are also the main source of disease burden, with neuropsychiatric disorders being the single largest contributor. Morbidity and mortality due to NCDs are greatest in the poor population. Although the crude NCD mortality increased 5% between 1996 and 2007, age-standardised mortality declined by 20%. Declines were primarily for cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases, in association with the successful implementation of health policies that lead to decreases in smoking and the expansion of access to primary health care. Of note, however, the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension is rising in parallel with that of excess weight; these increases are associated with unfavourable changes of diet and physical activity. Brazil has implemented major policies for the prevention of NCDs, and its age-adjusted NCD mortality is falling by 1.8% per year. However, the unfavourable trends for most major risk factors pose an enormous challenge and call for additional and timely action and policies, especially those of a legislative and regulatory nature and those providing cost-effective chronic care for individuals affected by NCDs.

Postmaterialist and economic voting in Australia, 1990-98

Recent research in Australian sociology and political science has debated the extent to which postmaterialist values and economic self-interest shape voting in federal elections. Some researchers have argued that postmaterialist values have partly displaced materialist concerns with physical security and economic well-being in Australian public life. This displacement, coupled with the adoption by major political parties of postmaterialist 'quality of life' issues such as the environment, has meant that voting in Australia has come to be more dependent on postmaterialist values than on perceptions of economic interest. Other research, however, has found no relationship between postmaterialist values and voting behaviour, while economic evaluations remain a strong determinant of voting behaviour. Part of the disagreement reflects methodological differences in the research. But different methodological problems compromise each of the previous studies. In this paper we use data from the 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1998 Australian Election Studies to investigate postmaterialist and economic voting in the Commonwealth House of Representatives and the Senate. Using various statistical methods, we first explore bivariate relationships between key variables and then use multivariate models of postmaterialist and economic voting to adjudicate between the contending positions.

Bringing people back in: Grassroots approach to peace in Bosnia-Nerzegovina

Peacemaking in Bosnia-Herzegovina is a controversial subject that engaged the political energies of the international community for several years without resolution. While international efforts at peacemaking warrant a critique in their own right, the assumptions that lie behind popular perceptions of peacemaking must also be examined. This article explores the proposition that the promotion of multi-ethnic contact between Bosnian people is at least as important as elections or the reconstruction of political institutions. Indeed, the restoration and development of inter-ethnic relationships, especially at grassroots level, is essential for the establishment of sustainable peace. This article thus focuses on the roles of NGOs (Non-governmental organisations) active at the grassroots level in Bosnia, such as the Centre for Drama Education in Mostar, Project Firefly in Brcko, and the CARE Welcome Project in Sarajevo, which represent a grassroots form of peacemaking that incorporates local knowledge and understandings of the conflict within peace projects.

'Localizing the national' - The rediscovery and reshaping of local campaigning in Australia

Pippa Norris provides a schematic account of the evolution of campaigning through premodern, modern and postmodern stages. In particular she points to an emerging postmodern phase of electioneering characterized by a renewed emphasis upon direct forms of engagement which resonate with an earlier period in which campaigns were locally fought and largely dependent upon the canvassing efforts of party workers and volunteers. Norris's analysis offers a useful prism with which to view recent developments in electioneering in Australia. In the past several elections the rival Labor and Liberal parties have attempted to achieve a synergy between their centrally conducted and constituency-level campaigns by ensuring that their national campaigns are locally relevant and address local concerns. Their efforts to 'localize the national' meld the use of sophisticated software with elements of a traditional 'meet and greet' politics and suggest that local campaigning may now have a new shape and importance.