Exploratory spatial data analysis techniques for examining urban crime

Regional planners, policy makers and policing agencies all recognize the importance of better understanding the dynamics of crime. Theoretical and application-oriented approaches which provide insights into why and where crimes take place are much sought after. Geographic information systems and spatial analysis techniques, in particular, are proving to be essential or studying criminal activity. However, the capabilities of these quantitative methods continue to evolve. This paper explores the use of geographic information systems and spatial analysis approaches for examining crime occurrence in Brisbane, Australia. The analysis highlights novel capabilities for the analysis of crime in urban regions.

The effect of moderate aerobic exercise and relaxation on secretory immunoglobulin A

A deficiency in secretory immunoglobulin A (sIgA) is associated with recurrent upper respiratory tract infections both in the general community and in elite athletes. The aim of this paper was to investigate the effect of aerobic exercise and relaxation on various indices of sIgA in 12 male and 8 female adults who varied in levels of recreational activity. Salivary samples were obtained before, immediately after and 30 minutes after an incremental cycle ergometer test to fatigue. after 30 minutes of cycling at 30% or 60 % of maximum heart rate, and after 30 minutes of relaxation with guided imagery. Each session was run on a separate day. When expressed in relation to changes in salivary flow rate, sIgA did not change after exercise. However, both the absolute concentration and secretion rate of sIgA increased during relaxation (167 +/- 179 mug ml(-1), p < 0.001: and 37 +/- 71 g(.)min(-1), p < 0.05 respectively). Nonspecific protein increased more than sIgA during incremental exercise to fatigue (decrease in the sIgA/protein ratio 92 +/- 181 g(.)mg protein(-1), p(0.05), but sIgA relative to protein did not change during relaxation. Our findings suggest that sIgA secretion rate is a more appropriate measure of sIgA than sIgA relative to protein, both for exercise and relaxation. These data suggest the possibility of using relaxation to counteract the negative effects of intense exercise on sIgA levels.

Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Associations involving delays (particularly long delays) between certain weather parameters and geomagnetic activity

Four sunspot-minimum periods (1963-1966, 1971-1977, 1983-1987 and 1992-1997) have been examined for the results which are presented. Using several different weather parameters, tropospheric gravity waves, enhanced cold fronts and two rainfall data sets in Eastern Australia, associations at reasonably high levels of significance have been found with enhanced geomagnetic activity (EGA). Statistically this EGA involved either short delays of several days or long delays of about 20 days. The geomagnetic parameters used were (a) the AE index (b) the hourly H component for a number of stations and (c) the daily K-P-sum value. The K-P-sum analyses have shown that the EGA associated with the delays form part of four or five cycles of recurrent geomagnetic activity for 27-day periodicities. Furthermore statistically two recurrent cycles are found to exist concurrently, one apparently related to the short delays and the other to the long delays. Periodicities of 13.5 days are created because the two sets are displaced from each other by approximately this interval. A brief reference is made to the 13.5 periodicity known to exist for geomagnetic activity and the evidence in the literature for active regions on the sun to be displaced by 180 degrees of solar longitude.

Exploring through cover - the integrated interpretation of high resolution aeromagnetic, airborne electromagnetic and ground gravity data from the Grant's Patch area, Eastern Goldfields Province, Archaean Yigarn Craton Part B; Gravity inversion as a

The cost and risk associated with mineral exploration in Australia increases significantly as companies move into deeper regolith-covered terrain. The ability to map the bedrock and the depth of weathering within an area has the potential to decrease this risk and increase the effectiveness of exploration programs. This paper is the second in a trilogy concerning the Grant's Patch area of the Eastern Goldfields. The recent development of the VPmg potential field inversion program in conjunction with the acquisition of high-resolution gravity data over an area with extensive drilling provided an opportunity to evaluate three-dimensional gravity inversion as a bedrock and regolith mapping tool. An apparent density model of the study area was constructed, with the ground represented as adjoining 200 m by 200 m vertical rectangular prisms. During inversion VPmg incrementally adjusted the density of each prism until the free-air gravity response of the model replicated the observed data. For the Grant's Patch study area, this image of the apparent density values proved easier to interpret than the Bouguer gravity image. A regolith layer was introduced into the model and realistic fresh-rock densities assigned to each basement prism according to its interpreted lithology. With the basement and regolith densities fixed, the VPmg inversion algorithm adjusted the depth to fresh basement until the misfit between the calculated and observed gravity response was minimised. The resulting geometry of the bedrock/regolith contact largely replicated the base of weathering indicated by drilling with predicted depth of weathering values from gravity inversion typically within 15% of those logged during RAB and RC drilling.

'Neighbourhood' size, dispersal and density estimates in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae) using individual genetic and demographic methods

Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4 piD sigma (2) (where D is the population density and sigma (2) the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m(2)/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km(2) and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m(2)/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km(2) when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.

Investigating technical and scale efficiencies of Australian universities through data envelopment analysis

Performance indicators in the public sector have often been criticised for being inadequate and not conducive to analysing efficiency. The main objective of this study is to use data envelopment analysis (DEA) to examine the relative efficiency of Australian universities. Three performance models are developed, namely, overall performance, performance on delivery of educational services, and performance on fee-paying enrolments. The findings based on 1995 data show that the university sector was performing well on technical and scale efficiency but there was room for improving performance on fee-paying enrolments. There were also small slacks in input utilisation. More universities were operating at decreasing returns to scale, indicating a potential to downsize. DEA helps in identifying the reference sets for inefficient institutions and objectively determines productivity improvements. As such, it can be a valuable benchmarking tool for educational administrators and assist in more efficient allocation of scarce resources. In the absence of market mechanisms to price educational outputs, which renders traditional production or cost functions inappropriate, universities are particularly obliged to seek alternative efficiency analysis methods such as DEA.

A multiple-outgroup approach to resolving division-level phylogenetic relationships using 16S rDNA data

The 16S rRNA gene (16S rDNA) is currently the most widely used gene for estimating the evolutionary history of prokaryotes, To date, there are more than 30 000 16S rDNA sequences available from the core databases, GenBank, EMBL and DDBJ, This great number may cause a dilemma when composing datasets for phylogenetic analysis, since the choice and number of reference organisms are known to affect the resulting tree topology. A group of sequences appearing monophyletic in one dataset may not be so in another. This can be especially problematic when establishing the relationships of distantly related sequences at the division (phylum) level. In this study, a multiple-outgroup approach to resolving division-level phylogenetic relationships is suggested using 16S rDNA data. The approach is illustrated by two case studies concerning the monophyly of two recently proposed bacterial divisions, OP9 and OP10.

A field trial of the effect of improved piglet management on smallholder sow productivity in the Philippines

We conducted a randomised, controlled field trial during 1998/1999 to evaluate the hypothesis that improved piglet management would improve the reproductive performance of smallholder sows. Simple changes were introduced into the treatment herds including the construction of a heated piglet-separation pen, vitamin injections, creep feeding and early weaning. The control herds were unchanged. Data were collected from all sows in each enrolled herd over two farrowings. We enrolled 176 sows, including 170 (96 treatment and 74 control) sows that remained throughout the study period. Significant differences in the reproductive performance of treatment and control sows were recorded for interfarrowing interval (median 176 versus 220 days), average number liveborn over 2 litters (11 versus 12), and average preweaning mortality over 2 litters (0 versus 37%). Based on a discount rate of 17%, the benefit-cost ratio of the treatment was 11.1 and 12.1 over 3 and 5 years, respectively. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.