Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

The administration of atomoxetine during alcohol deprivation induces a time-limited increase in alcohol consumption after relapse.

The administration of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) typically used as antidepressants increases alcohol consumption after an alcohol deprivation period in rats. However, the appearance of this effect after the treatment with selective noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs) has not been studied. In the present work we examined the effects of a 15-d treatment with the SNRI atomoxetine (1, 3 and 10 mg/kg, i.p.) in male rats trained to drink alcohol solutions in a 4-bottle choice test. The treatment with atomoxetine (10 mg/kg, i.p.) during an alcohol deprivation period increased alcohol consumption after relapse. This effect only lasted one week, disappearing thereafter. Treatment with atomoxetine did not cause a behavioral sensitized response to a challenge dose of amphetamine (1.5 mg/kg, i.p.), indicating the absence of a supersensitive dopaminergic transmission. This effect is markedly different from that of SSRI antidepressants that produced both long-lasting increases in alcohol consumption and behavioral sensitization. Clinical implications are discussed.

CB1 blockade potentiates down-regulation of lipogenic gene expression in perirenal adipose tissue in high carbohydrate diet-induced obesity.

De novo lipogenesis and hypercaloric diets are thought to contribute to increased fat mass, particularly in abdominal fat depots. CB1 is highly expressed in adipose tissue, and CB1-mediated signalling is associated with stimulation of lipogenesis and diet-induced obesity, though its contribution to increasing fat deposition in adipose tissue is controversial. Lipogenesis is regulated by transcription factors such as liver X receptor (LXR), sterol-response element binding protein (SREBP) and carbohydrate-responsive-element-binding protein (ChREBP). We evaluated the role of CB1 in the gene expression of these factors and their target genes in relation to lipogenesis in the perirenal adipose tissue (PrAT) of rats fed a high-carbohydrate diet (HCHD) or a high-fat diet (HFD). Both obesity models showed an up-regulated gene expression of CB1 and Lxrα in this adipose pad. The Srebf-1 and ChREBP gene expressions were down-regulated in HFD but not in HCHD. The expression of their target genes encoding for lipogenic enzymes showed a decrease in diet-induced obesity and was particularly dramatic in HFD. In HCHD, CB1 blockade by AM251 reduced the Srebf-1 and ChREBP expression and totally abrogated the remnant gene expression of their target lipogenic enzymes. The phosphorylated form of the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK-p), which participates in the CB1-mediated signalling pathway, was markedly present in the PrAT of obese rats. ERK-p was drastically repressed by AM251 indicating that CB1 is actually functional in PrAT of obese animals, though its activation loses the ability to stimulate lipogenesis in PrAT of obese rats. Even so, the remnant expression levels of lipogenic transcription factors found in HCHD-fed rats are still dependent on CB1 activity. Hence, in HCHD-induced obesity, CB1 blockade may help to further potentiate the reduction of lipogenesis in PrAT by means of inducing down-regulation of the ChREBP and Srebf-1 gene expression, and consequently in the expression of lipogenic enzymes.

Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

The generation and re-generation of social capital and enterprises in multi-stakeholders social cooperative enterprises: a system dynamic approach

Theories on social capital and on social entrepreneurship have mainly highlighted the attitude of social capital to generate enterprises and to foster good relations between third sector organizations and the public sector. This paper considers the social capital in a specific third sector enterprise; here, multi-stakeholder social cooperatives are seen, at the same time, as social capital results, creators and incubators. In the particular enterprises that identify themselves as community social enterprises, social capital, both as organizational and relational capital, is fundamental: SCEs arise from but also produce and disseminate social capital. This paper aims to improve the building of relational social capital and the refining of helpful relations drawn from other arenas, where they were created and from where they are sometimes transferred to other realities, where their role is carried on further (often working in non-profit, horizontally and vertically arranged groups, where they share resources and relations). To represent this perspective, we use a qualitative system dynamic approach in which social capital is measured using proxies. Cooperation of volunteers, customers, community leaders and third sector local organizations is fundamental to establish trust relations between public local authorities and cooperatives. These relations help the latter to maintain long-term contracts with local authorities as providers of social services and enable them to add innovation to their services, by developing experiences and management models and maintaining an interchange with civil servants regarding these matters. The long-term relations and the organizational relations linking SCEs and public organizations help to create and to renovate social capital. Thus, multi-stakeholder cooperatives originated via social capital developed in third sector organizations produce new social capital within the cooperatives themselves and between different cooperatives (entrepreneurial components of the third sector) and the public sector. In their entrepreneurial life, cooperatives have to contrast the "working drift," as a result of which only workers remain as members of the cooperative, while other stakeholders leave the organization. Those who are not workers in the cooperative are (stake)holders with "weak ties," who are nevertheless fundamental in making a worker's cooperative an authentic social multi-stakeholders cooperative. To maintain multi-stakeholder governance and the relations with third sector and civil society, social cooperatives have to reinforce participation and dialogue with civil society through ongoing efforts to include people that provide social proposals. We try to represent these processes in a system dynamic model applied to local cooperatives, measuring the social capital created by the social cooperative through proxies, such as number of volunteers and strong cooperation with public institutions. Using a reverse-engineering approach, we can individuate the determinants of the creation of social capital and thereby give support to governance that creates social capital.

Towards smart user models in open environments

Our work is concerned with user modelling in open environments. Our proposal then is the line of contributions to the advances on user modelling in open environments thanks so the Agent Technology, in what has been called Smart User Model. Our research contains a holistic study of User Modelling in several research areas related to users. We have developed a conceptualization of User Modelling by means of examples from a broad range of research areas with the aim of improving our understanding of user modelling and its role in the next generation of open and distributed service environments. This report is organized as follow: In chapter 1 we introduce our motivation and objectives. Then in chapters 2, 3, 4 and 5 we provide the state-of-the-art on user modelling. In chapter 2, we give the main definitions of elements described in the report. In chapter 3, we present an historical perspective on user models. In chapter 4 we provide a review of user models from the perspective of different research areas, with special emphasis on the give-and-take relationship between Agent Technology and user modelling. In chapter 5, we describe the main challenges that, from our point of view, need to be tackled by researchers wanting to contribute to advances in user modelling. From the study of the state-of-the-art follows an exploratory work in chapter 6. We define a SUM and a methodology to deal with it. We also present some cases study in order to illustrate the methodology. Finally, we present the thesis proposal to continue the work, together with its corresponding work scheduling and temporalisation

Portraying innovation in the public service of Brazil: Frameworks, systematization and characterization

ABSTRACT Innovation is essential for improving organizational performance in both the private and public sectors. This article describes and analyzes the 323 innovation experiences of the Brazilian federal public service that received prizes during the 16 annual competitions (from 1995 to 2012) of the Award for Innovation in Federal Public Management held by the Brazilian National School of Public Administration (ENAP). It is a qualitative and quantitative study in which were employed as categories for analysis the four types of innovation defined in the Copenhagen Manual: product, process, organizational and communication. The survey results allow us to affirm that there is innovation in the public sector, in spite of the skepticism of some researchers and the incipient state of theoretical research on the subject. It was possible to observe that organizational innovation was the one with the highest number of award- -winning experience, followed respectively by process, communication and product innovation, with citizen services and improvement of work processes being the main highlights. The results showed that, although the high incidence of innovation occurs at the national level, a significant number of innovations also occur at the local level, probably because many organizations of the federal government have their actions spread only at this level of government. Concerning the innovative area, health and education predominate, with almost 33% of initiatives, which can be explained by capillarity of these areas and the fact that both maintain a strong interaction with the user. The contributions of this work include the use of theoretical model of innovation analysis in the public sector in Brazil still upcoming, and the systematization of knowledge in empirical basis for this innovation. In this sense, it also contributes to the development of the theory with the presentation of evidence that the characteristics, determinants and consequences of innovation in the public sector differ not only from innovation in the industry, but also from innovation in services in the private sector.

The evolution of universities' relations with the business sector in Brazil: What national publications between 1980 and 2012 reveal

ABSTRACT This paper addresses the changes in university-industry relations in Brazil regarding innovation activities. It is based on a survey of articles published in major national journals or presented at the most relevant Brazilian and regional conferences, between 1980 and 2012. The year 1980 was chosen due to the creation of the Technological Innovation Offices (NITs), which was the first government initiative to encourage knowledge transfer from universities to companies; the second was the Innovation Act of 2004. Our assumption was that after the Act the number of academic papers on this subject would increase, bringing new ideas and propositions of models to enhance this relationship. The methodology employed a qualitative, exploratory approach, using bibliographical research and a bibliometric analysis of 247 papers. Literature review of international studies shows the discussion of problems and suggestions for improvements, while in Brazil there is still a debate on whether this collaboration should occur, and if this is a legitimate role for the university. Despite the numerical growth, the content analysis showed few papers on new configurations and procedures for partnership management. We conclude that university-industry relations are not a regular and totally accepted process in Brazilian public universities, which reflect an ideological bias against cooperation with firms.

Application of the european customer satisfaction index to postal services. Structural equation models versus partial least squars

Customer satisfaction and retention are key issues for organizations in today’s competitive market place. As such, much research and revenue has been invested in developing accurate ways of assessing consumer satisfaction at both the macro (national) and micro (organizational) level, facilitating comparisons in performance both within and between industries. Since the instigation of the national customer satisfaction indices (CSI), partial least squares (PLS) has been used to estimate the CSI models in preference to structural equation models (SEM) because they do not rely on strict assumptions about the data. However, this choice was based upon some misconceptions about the use of SEM’s and does not take into consideration more recent advances in SEM, including estimation methods that are robust to non-normality and missing data. In this paper, both SEM and PLS approaches were compared by evaluating perceptions of the Isle of Man Post Office Products and Customer service using a CSI format. The new robust SEM procedures were found to be advantageous over PLS. Product quality was found to be the only driver of customer satisfaction, while image and satisfaction were the only predictors of loyalty, thus arguing for the specificity of postal services

From deep seated slope deformation to rock avalanche: Destabilization and transportation models of the Sierre landslide (Switzerland)

Sackung is a widespread post-glacial morphological feature affecting Alpine mountains and creating characteristic geomorphological expression that can be detected from topography. Over long time evolution, internal deformation can lead to the formation of rapidly moving phenomena such as a rock-slide or rock avalanche. In this study, a detailed description of the Sierre rock-avalanche (SW Switzerland) is presented. This convex-shaped postglacial instability is one of the larger rock-avalanche in the Alps, involving more than 1.5 billion m3 with a run-out distance of about 14 km and extremely low Fahrböschung angle. This study presents comprehensive analyses of the structural and geological characteristics leading to the development of the Sierre rock-avalanche. In particular, by combining field observations, digital elevation model analyses and numerical modelling, the strong influence of both ductile and brittle tectonic structures on the failure mechanism and on the failure surface geometry is highlighted. The detection of pre-failure deformation indicates that the development of the rock avalanche corresponds to the last evolutionary stage of a pre-existing deep seated gravitational slope instability. These analyses accompanied by the dating and the characterization of rock avalanche deposits, allow the proposal of a destabilization model that clarifies the different phases leading to the development of the Sierre rock avalanche.

Financial constraints and the failure of innovation projects

Theoretical and empirical approaches have stressed the existence of financial constraints in innovative activities of firms. This paper analyses the role of financial obstacles on the likelihood of abandoning an innovation project. Although a large number of innovation projects are abandoned before their completion, the empirical evidence has focused on the determinants of innovation while failed projects have received little attention. Our analysis differentiates between internal and external barriers on the probability of abandoning a project and we examine whether the effects are different depending on the stage of the innovation process. In the empirical analysis carried out for a panel data of potential innovative Spanish firms for the period 2004-2010, we use a bivariate probit model to take into account the simultaneity of financial constraints and the decision to abandon an innovation project. Our results show that financial constraints most affect the probability of abandoning an innovation project during the concept stage and that low-technological manufacturing and non-KIS service sectors are more sensitive to financial constraints.

Bayesian nash equilibrium in ''linear'' cournot models with private information about costs

Calculating explicit closed form solutions of Cournot models where firms have private information about their costs is, in general, very cumbersome. Most authors consider therefore linear demands and constant marginal costs. However, within this framework, the nonnegativity constraint on prices (and quantities) has been ignored or not properly dealt with and the correct calculation of all Bayesian Nash equilibria is more complicated than expected. Moreover, multiple symmetric and interior Bayesianf equilibria may exist for an open set of parameters. The reason for this is that linear demand is not really linear, since there is a kink at zero price: the general ''linear'' inverse demand function is P (Q) = max{a - bQ, 0} rather than P (Q) = a - bQ.

Redox dysregulation and oxidative stress in schizophrenia: genetic and functional anomalies of glutathione synthesis in patients and experimental models involving GABA interneurons and NMDA receptors

Objective: Converging evidence speak in favor of an abnormal susceptibility to oxidative stress in schizophrenia. A decreased level of glutathione (GSH), the principal non-protein antioxidant and redox regulator, was observed both in cerebrospinal-fluid and prefrontal cortex of schizophrenia patients (Do et al., 2000). Results: Schizophrenia patients have an abnormal GSH synthesis most likely of genetic origin: Two independent case-control studies showed a significant association between schizophrenia and a GAG trinucleotide repeat (TNR) polymorphism in the GSH key synthesizing enzyme glutamate-cysteine-ligase (GCL) catalytic subunit (GCLC) gene. The most common TNR genotype 7/7 was more frequent in controls, whereas the rarest TNR genotype 8/8 was three times more frequent in patients. The disease-associated genotypes correlated with a decrease in GCLC protein expression, GCL activity and GSH content. Such a redox dysregulation during development could underlie the structural and functional anomalies in connectivity: In experimental models, GSH deficit induced anomalies similar to those observed in patients. (a) morphology: In animal models with GSH deficit during the development we observed in prefrontal cortex a decreased dendritic spines density in pyramidal cells and an abnormal development of parvalbumine (but not of calretinine) immunoreactive GABA interneurones in anterior cingulate cortex. (b) physiology: GSH depletion in hippocampal slices induces NMDA receptors hypofunction and an impairment of long term potentiation. In addition, GSH deficit affected the modulation of dopamine on NMDA-induced Ca 2+ response in cultured cortical neurons. While dopamine enhanced NMDA responses in control neurons, it depressed NMDA responses in GSH-depleted neurons. Antagonist of D2-, but not D1-receptors, prevented this depression, a mechanism contributing to the efficacy of antipsychotics. The redox sensitive ryanodine receptors and L-type calcium channels underlie these observations. (c) cognition: Developing rats with low [GSH] and high dopamine lead deficit in olfactory integration and in object recognition which appears earlier in males that females, in analogy to the delay of the psychosis onset between man and woman. Conclusion: These clinical and experimental evidence, combined with the favorable outcome of a clinical trial with N-Acetyl Cysteine, a GSH precursor, on both the negative symptoms (Berk et al., submitted) and the mismatch negativity in an auditory oddball paradigm supported the proposal that a GSH synthesis impairment of genetic origin represent, among other factors, one major risk factor in schizophrenia.

Avalanche dynamics of fiber bundle models

We present a detailed analytical and numerical study of the avalanche distributions of the continuous damage fiber bundle model CDFBM . Linearly elastic fibers undergo a series of partial failure events which give rise to a gradual degradation of their stiffness. We show that the model reproduces a wide range of mechanical behaviors. We find that macroscopic hardening and plastic responses are characterized by avalanche distributions, which exhibit an algebraic decay with exponents between 5/2 and 2 different from those observed in mean-field fiber bundle models. We also derive analytically the phase diagram of a family of CDFBM which covers a large variety of potential avalanche size distributions. Our results provide a unified view of the statistics of breaking avalanches in fiber bundle models