Baysian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection

Agents have two forecasting models, one consistent with the unique rational expectations equilibrium, another that assumes a time-varying parameter structure. When agents use Bayesian updating to choose between models in a self-referential system, we find that learning dynamics lead to selection of one of the two models. However, there are parameter regions for which the non-rational forecasting model is selected in the long-run. A key structural parameter governing outcomes measures the degree of expectations feedback in Muth's model of price determination.

An adapted model of ex vivo vein perfusion: the key to understand vessel wall remodeling

Objective: Saphenous vein graft bypass remains the salvage option when¦endovascular procedure has failed or was contraindicated due to extensive¦occlusive lesions. However, pathological wall remodeling leading leading to¦graft failure is one of the most limiting factors of this therapy. Therefore, the¦understanding of this remodeling process of human vein is essential to the design¦of future effective therapeutics and it requires an adapted model of ex-vivo vein¦perfusion.¦Methods: We have developed an ex vivo vein support system (EVVSS), which¦uses standardized and controlled hemodynamic parameters for the pulsatile¦perfusion of saphenous vein segments. The morphological and molecular¦parameters involved in the remodeling process under an arterial shear stress¦associated to low (7 mm Hg) or high (70 mm Hg) pressure conditions can be¦analyzed.¦Results: Histomorphometric analysis showed that the vein segments perfused¦during 7 days under high pressure undergo a significant neointima development¦compared to veins exposed to low pressure conditions. The application of an¦arterial shear stress in the vein under low pressure induced an elevation of the¦MMP-2 and MMP-9 expression, activity and transcription. The application of¦higher pressure is associated to increased MMP2 expression and transcription¦and MMP9 transcription. TIMP1 expression and transcription were initiated by¦the application of an arterial shear stress but not modified by the modification¦of the pressure. However, TIMP2 expression was increased under high¦pressure conditions but its transcription was inhibited by arterial shear stress,¦independently of the pressure. The values of transcription and expression of¦PAI-1 were not modified by high pressure. Eph-B4 transcription and expression¦were significantly decreased under arterial shear stress.¦Conclusion: These data show that our EVVSS is a valuable setting to study¦ex vivo remodeling of human saphenous veins submitted to arterial conditions.¦The intimal hyperplasia as well as MMP 2, 9 and TIMP 2 seem to be influenced¦by the pressure.

The system-wide impacts of the external benefits to higher education on the Scottish economy: An exploratory “micro-to-macro” approach

The private market benefits of education, i.e. the wage premia of graduates, are widely studied at the micro level, although the magnitude of their macroeconomic impact is disputed. However, there are additional benefits of education, which are less well understood but could potentially drive significant macroeconomic impacts. Following the taxonomy of McMahon (2009) we identify four different types of benefits of education. These are: private market benefits (wage premia); private non market benefits (own health, happiness, etc.); external market benefits (productivity spillovers; and external non-market benefits (crime rates, civic society, democratisation, etc.). Drawing on available microeconometric evidence we use a micro-to-macro simulation approach (Hermannsson et al, 2010) to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of external benefits of higher education. We explore four cases: technology spillovers from HEIs; productivity spillovers from more skilled workers in the labour market; reduction in property crime; and the potential overall impact of external and private non-market benefits. Our results suggest that the external economic benefits of higher education could potentially be very large. However, given the dearth of microeconomic evidence this result should be seen as tentative. Our aim is to illustrate the links from education to the wider economy in principle and encourage further research in the field.

An objective anisotropic elastic plastic model and Algorithm applicable to bone mechanics

The implicit projection algorithm of isotropic plasticity is extended to an objective anisotropic elastic perfectly plastic model. The recursion formula developed to project the trial stress on the yield surface, is applicable to any non linear elastic law and any plastic yield function.A curvilinear transverse isotropic model based on a quadratic elastic potential and on Hill's quadratic yield criterion is then developed and implemented in a computer program for bone mechanics perspectives. The paper concludes with a numerical study of a schematic bone-prosthesis system to illustrate the potential of the model.

Allergen-induced IgE-dependent gut inflammation in a human PBMC-engrafted murine model of allergy.

BACKGROUND: Humanized murine models comprise a new tool to analyze novel therapeutic strategies for allergic diseases of the intestine.¦OBJECTIVE: In this study we developed a human PBMC-engrafted murine model of allergen-driven gut inflammation and analyzed the underlying immunologic mechanisms.¦METHODS: Nonobese diabetic (NOD)-scid-γc(-/-) mice were injected intraperitoneally with human PBMCs from allergic donors together with the respective allergen or not. Three weeks later, mice were challenged with the allergen orally or rectally, and gut inflammation was monitored with a high-resolution video miniendoscopic system, as well as histologically.¦RESULTS: Using the aeroallergens birch or grass pollen as model allergens and, for some donors, also hazelnut allergen, we show that allergen-specific human IgE in murine sera and allergen-specific proliferation and cytokine production of human CD4(+) T cells recovered from spleens after 3 weeks could only be measured in mice treated with PBMCs plus allergen. Importantly, these mice had the highest endoscopic scores evaluating translucent structure, granularity, fibrin, vascularity, and stool after oral or rectal allergen challenge and a strong histologic inflammation of the colon. Analyzing the underlying mechanisms, we demonstrate that allergen-associated colitis was dependent on IgE, human IgE receptor-expressing effector cells, and the mediators histamine and platelet-activating factor.¦CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that allergic gut inflammation can be induced in human PBMC-engrafted mice, allowing the investigation of pathophysiologic mechanisms of allergic diseases of the intestine and evaluation of therapeutic interventions.

General Practitioners' willingness to pay for continuing medical education in a fee-for-service universal coverage health care system

Background: Sponsoring of physicians meetings by life science companies has led to reduced participation fees but might influence physician's prescription practices. A ban on such sponsoring may increase participation fees. We aimed to evaluate factors associated with physicians' willingness to pay for medical meetings, their position on the sponsoring of medical meetings and their opinion on alternative financing options. Methods: An anonymous web-based questionnaire was sent to 447 general practitioners in one state in Switzerland, identified through their affiliation to a medical association. The questionnaire evaluated physicians' willingness to pay for medical meetings, their perception of a bias in prescription practices induced by commercial support, their opinion on the introduction of a binding legislation and alternative financing options, their frequency of exchange with sales representatives and other relevant socioeconomic factors. We built a multivariate predictor logistic regression model to identify determinants of willingness to pay. Results: Of the 115 physicians who responded (response rate 26%), 48% were willing to pay more than what they currently pay for congresses, 79% disagreed that commercial support introduced a bias in their prescription practices and 61% disagreed that it introduced a bias in their colleagues' prescription practices. Based on the multivariate logistic regression, perception of a bias in peers prescription practices (OR=7.47, 95% CI 1.65-38.18) and group practice structure (OR=4.62, 95% CI 1.34-22.29) were significantly associated with an increase in willingness to pay. Two thirds (76%) of physicians did not support the introduction of a binding legislation and 53% were in favour of creating a general fund administered by an independent body. Conclusion: Our results suggest that almost half of physicians surveyed are willing to pay more than what they currently pay for congresses. Predictors of an increase in physicians' willingness to pay were perception of the influence of bias in peers prescription practices and group practice structure. Most responders did not agree that sponsoring introduced prescribing bias nor did they support the 2 introduction of a binding legislation prohibiting sponsoring but a majority did agree to an independent body that would centrally administer a general fund.

Complex landslide behaviour and structural controlled by the structures: A 3D conceptual model example of Åknes rockslide, Norway

Åknes is an active complex large rockslide of approximately 30?40 Mm3 located within the Proterozoic gneisses of western Norway. The observed surface displacements indicate that this rockslide is divided into several blocks moving in different directions at velocities of between 3 and 10 cm year?1. Because of regional safety issues and economic interests this rockslide has been extensively monitored since 2004. The understanding of the deformation mechanism is crucial for the implementation of a viable monitoring system. Detailed field investigations and the analysis of a digital elevation model (DEM) indicate that the movements and the block geometry are controlled by the main schistosity (S1) in gneisses, folds, joints and regional faults. Such complex slope deformations use pre-existing structures, but also result in new failure surfaces and deformation zones, like preferential rupture in fold-hinge zones. Our interpretation provides a consistent conceptual three-dimensional (3D) model for the movements measured by various methods that is crucial for numerical stability modelling. In addition, this reinterpretation of the morphology confirms that in the past several rockslides occurred from the Åknes slope. They may be related to scars propagating along the vertical foliation in folds hinges. Finally, a model of the evolution of the Åknes slope is presented.

Health care supply, payment system and medical practice : evidence from obstetric practice

ABSTRACTA significant share of deliveries are performed by Cesarian section (C-section) in Europe and in many developed and developing countries. The aims of this thesis are to highlight the non medical, especially economic and financial, incentives that explain the use of C-section, as well as the medical consequences of C-section on women's health, in regard with other factors of ob¬stetrical care quality such as hospital concentration. Those diagnoses enable us to exhibit ways of improvement of obstetrical care quality in France. Our analysis focus on two countries, France and Switzerland. In the first part of the thesis, we show the influence of two non medical factors on the C-section use, namely the hospital payment system on the one hand and the obstetricians behaviour, especially their demand for leisure, on the other hand. With French data on the year 2003, we show firstly that the fee-for-service payment system of private for profit hospitals induces a higher probability of using C-section. Obstetricians play also a preeminent role in the decision to use a C-section, as the probability of a C-section rises with the number of obstetricians. We then focus on a French reform introduced in 2004, to investigate the impact of Prospective Payment System on obstetric practise. We show that the rise of C-section rate between 2003 and 2006 is mainly caused by changes in hospitals and patients features. Obstetricians practises do not vary a lot for patients with the same risk code. In the mean time however, the number of women coded with a high risk rises. This can be caused by improvements in the quality of coding, obstetricians chosing codes that match better the real health state of their patients. Yet, it can also show that obstetricians change their coding practises to justify the use of certain practises, such as C-section, with no regard to the health state of patients. Financial factors are not the only non medical fac¬tors that can influence the resort to C-section. Using Shelton Brown ΠΙ identification strategy, we focus on the potential impact of obstetricians leisure preference on the use of C-section. We use the distributions of days and hours of delivering and the types of C-section - planned or emergency C-sections - to show that the obstetricians demand for leisure has a significant impact on the resort to C-section, but only in emergency situations. The second part of the thesis deals with some ways to improve obstetric care quality. We use on the one hand swiss and french data to study the impact of C-section on the patients' probability of having an obstetric complication and on the other hand the influence of hospital concentration on the quality of obstetric care. We find the same results as former medical studies about the risks entailed by C-section on obstetric complications.These results prove women ought to be better informed of the medical consequences of C-section and that the slowing of C-section use should be a priority of public health policy. We finally focus on another way to improve obstetric care quality, that is hospital lmarket concentration. We investigate the impact of hospital concentration by integrating the Herfindahl-Hirschman index in our model, on health care quality, measured by the HCUP indicator. We find that hospital concentration has a negative impact on obstetric care quality, which undermines today's policy of hospital closings in France.JEL classification: 112; 118Keywords: Hospital; C-section; Payment System; Counterfactual Estimation; Quality of Care.RÉSUMÉUne part importante des accouchements sont réalisés par césarienne en Europe et dans de nom¬breux pays développés ou en développement. Les objectifs de cette thèse sont de mettre en évidence les déterminants non médicaux, notamment économiques et financiers, expliquant le développe¬ment de cette pratique, ainsi que ses conséquences sur la santé des femmes après Γ accouchement, en lien avec d'autres facteurs comme la concentration locale des structures hospitalières. Les résul¬tats exposés dans cette thèse éclairent les perspectives et voies d'amélioration de la qualité des soins en obstétriques.Notre analyse se concentre sur deux pays : la France et la Suisse. Dans la première partie de la thèse, nous mettons en évidence l'influence de deux déterminants non médicaux sur l'emploi de la césarienne : le système de paiement des hôpitaux d'une part, et le comportement des médecins obstétriciens d'autre part. En étudiant des données françaises de 2003, nous montrons d'abord que le financement à l'acte des établissements privés engendre une hausse de la proba¬bilité de pratiquer une césarienne. Le rôle de l'obstrétricien paraît également déterminant dans la décision d'opérer une césarienne, la probabilité d'employer cette technique augmentant avec le nombre d'obstétriciens. Nous nous intéressons ensuite à l'impact de la mise en place en 2004 du système de paiement prospectif sur l'évolution des pratiques obstétricales entre 2003 et 2006 en France. La hausse du taux de recours à la césarienne entre 2004 et 2006 peut ainsi être principa¬lement imputée aux évolutions des caractéristiques des hôpitaux et des patients, les pratiques des obstétriciens, pour un même codage de la situation du patient, variant peu. Dans le même temps cependant, les pratiques de codage des patients parles obstétriciens évoluent fortement, les femmes étant de plus en plus nombreuses à porter des codes correspondant à des situations à risques. Cette évolution peut indiquer que la qualité du codage en 2006 s'est améliorée par rapport à 2004, le codage correspondant de plus en plus à la situation réelle des patientes. H peut aussi indiquer que les pratiques de codage évoluent pour justifier un recours accru à la césarienne, sans lien avec l'état réel des patientes. Les facteurs financiers ne sont pas les seuls facteurs non médicaux à pouvoir expliquer le recours à la césarienne : nous nous intéressons, en suivant la stratégie d'identifica¬tion de Shelton Brown m, à l'impact potentiel de la demande de loisir des médecins obstétriciens sur la pratique de la césarienne. En utilisant la distribution des jours et heures d'accouchement, et en distinguant les césariennes planifiées de celles effectuées en urgence, nous constatons que la demande de loisir des obstétriciens influence significativement le recours à la césarienne, mais uni¬quement pour les interventions d'urgence. La deuxième partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude de la qualité des soins en obstétriques. Nous utilisons des données suisses et françaises pour analyser d'une part l'impact de la césarienne sur la survenue de complications obstétricales et d'autre part l'impact de la concentration des soins sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique. Nons confirmons les résultats antérieurs de la littérature médicale sur la dangerosité de la césarienne comme facteur de complications obstétricales. Ces conclusions montrent que les femmes ont besoin d'être informées des conséquences de la césarienne sur leur santé et que le ralentissement de l'augmentation de la pratique de la césarienne devrait être un objectif de la politique publique de santé. Nous nous in¬téressons à un autre facteur d'amélioration des soins en obstrétique, l'organisation des hôpitaux et particulièrement leur concentration. Nous estimons ainsi l'effet de la concentration sur la qualité des soins obstétriques en intégrant l'indice de Herfindahl-Hirschman dans notre modèle, la qualité des soins étant mesurée à l'aide de l'indicateur HCUP. Nous constatons que la concentration des naissances a un impact négatif sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique, résultat qui va dans le sens contraire des politiques de fermeture d'hôpitaux menées actuellement en France. JEL classification : 112 ; 118Mots-clés : Hôpital ; Césarienne ; Système de paiement ; Contrefactuels ; Qualité des soins, sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique.

Online estimation of respiratory mechanics in non-invasive pressure support ventilation: a bench model study.

An online algorithm for determining respiratory mechanics in patients using non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in pressure support mode was developed and embedded in a ventilator system. Based on multiple linear regression (MLR) of respiratory data, the algorithm was tested on a patient bench model under conditions with and without leak and simulating a variety of mechanics. Bland-Altman analysis indicates reliable measures of compliance across the clinical range of interest (± 11-18% limits of agreement). Resistance measures showed large quantitative errors (30-50%), however, it was still possible to qualitatively distinguish between normal and obstructive resistances. This outcome provides clinically significant information for ventilator titration and patient management.

A decision-making Fokker-Planck model in computational neuroscience

Minimal models for the explanation of decision-making in computational neuroscience are based on the analysis of the evolution for the average firing rates of two interacting neuron populations. While these models typically lead to multi-stable scenario for the basic derived dynamical systems, noise is an important feature of the model taking into account finite-size effects and robustness of the decisions. These stochastic dynamical systems can be analyzed by studying carefully their associated Fokker-Planck partial differential equation. In particular, we discuss the existence, positivity and uniqueness for the solution of the stationary equation, as well as for the time evolving problem. Moreover, we prove convergence of the solution to the the stationary state representing the probability distribution of finding the neuron families in each of the decision states characterized by their average firing rates. Finally, we propose a numerical scheme allowing for simulations performed on the Fokker-Planck equation which are in agreement with those obtained recently by a moment method applied to the stochastic differential system. Our approach leads to a more detailed analytical and numerical study of this decision-making model in computational neuroscience.

The role of Pten in the Hematopoietic System and the Hematopoietic Stem Cells

Résumé Identification, localisation et activation des cellules souches hématopoiétiques dormantes in vivo Les cellules souches somatiques sont présentes dans la majorité des tissus régénératifs comme la peau, l'épithélium intestinal et le système hématopoiétique. A partir d'une seule cellule, elles ont les capacités de produire d'autres cellules souches du même type (auto-renouvellement) et d'engendrer un ensemble défini de cellules progénitrices différenciées qui vont maintenir ou réparer leur tissu hôte. Les cellules souches adultes les mieux caractérisées sont les cellules souches hématopoiétiques (HSC), localisées dans la moelle osseuse. Un des buts de mon travail de doctorat était de caractériser plus en profondeur la localisation des HSCs endogènes in vivo. Pour ce faire, la technique "label retaining assay", se basant sur la division peu fréquentes et sur la dormance des cellules souches, a été utilisée. Après un marquage des souris avec du BrdU (analogue à l'ADN) suivi d'une longue période sans BrdU, les cellules ayant incorporés le marquage ("label retaining cells" LCRs) ont pu être identifiées dans la moelle osseuse. Ces cellules LCRs étaient enrichies 300 fois en cellules de phenotype HSC et, en utilisant de la cytofluorométrie, il a pu être montré qu'environ 15% de toutes les HSCs d'une souris restent dormantes durant plusieures semaines. Ces HSCs dormantes à long terme ne sont probablement pas impliquées dans la maintenance de 'hématopoièse. Par contre, on assiste à l'activation rapide de ces HSCs dormantes lors d'une blessure, comme une ablation myéloide. Elles re-entrent alors en cycle cellulaire et sont essentielles pour une génération rapide des cellules progénitrices et matures qui vont remplacer les cellules perdues. De plus, la détection des LCRs, combinée avec l'utilisation du marqueur de HSCs c-kit, peut être utilisée pour la localisation des HSCs dormantes présentes dans la paroi endostéale de la cavité osseuse. De manière surprenante, les LCRs c-kit+ ont surtout étés trouvées isolées en cellule unique, suggérant que le micro-environement spécifique entourant et maintenant les HSCs, appelé niche, pourrait être très réduit et abriter une seule HSC par niche. Rôles complexes du gène supresseur de tumeur Pten dans le système hématopoiétique La phosphatase PTEN disparaît dans certains cancers héréditaires ou sporadiques humains, comme les gliomes, les cancers de l'utérus ou du sein. Pten inhibe la voie de signalisation de la PI3-kinase et joue un rôle clé dans l'apoptose, la croissance, la prolifération et la migration cellulaire. Notre but était d'étudier le rôle de Pten dans les HSC normale et durant la formation de leucémies. Pour ce faire, nous avons généré un modèle murin dans lequel le gène Pten peut être supprimé dans les cellules hématopoiétiques, incluant les HSCs. Ceci a été possible en croissant l'allèle conditionnelle ptenflox soit avec le transgène MxCre inductible par l'interféron α soit avec le transgène Scl-CreERt inductible par le tamoxifen. Ceci permet la conversion de l'allèle ptenflox en l'allèle nul PtenΔ dans les HSCs et les autres types cellulaires hématopoiétiques. Les souris mutantes Pten développent une splénomégalie massive causée par une expansion dramatiques de toutes les cellules myéloides. De manière interessante, alors que le nombre de HSCs dans la moelle osseuse diminue progressivement, le nombre des HSCs dans la rate augmente de manière proportionnelle. Etrangement, les analyses de cycle cellulaire ont montrés que Pten n'avait que peu ou pas d'effet sur la dormance des HSCs ou sur leur autorenouvellement. En revanche, une augmentation massive du niveau de la cytokine de mobilisation G-CSF a été détéctée dans le serum sanguin, suggérant que la suppression de Pten stimulerait la mobilisation et la migration des HSC de la moelle osseuse vers la rate. Finallement, la transplantation de moelle osseuse délétée en Pten dans des souris immuno-déficientes montre que Pten fonctionnerait comme un suppresseur de tumeur dans le système hématopoiétique car son absence entraîne la formation rapide de leucémies lymphocytaires. Summary Identification, localization and activation of dormant hematopoietic stun cells in vivo Somatic stem cells are present in most self-renewing tissues including the skin, the intestinal epithelium and the hematopoietic system. On a single cell basis they have the capacity to produce more stem cells of the same phenotype (self-renewal) and to give rise to a defined set of mature differentiated progeny, responsible for the maintenance or repair of the host tissue. The best characterized adult stem cell is the hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) located in the bone marrow. One goal of my thesis work was to further characterize the location of endogenous HSCs in vivo. To do this, a technique called "label retaining assay» was used which takes advantage of the fact that stem cells (including HSCs) divide very infrequently and can be dormant for months. After labeling mice with the DNA analogue BrdU followed by a long BrdU free "chase", BrdU "label retaining cells" (CRCs) could be identified in the bone marrow. These CRCs were 300-fold enriched for phenotypic HSCs and by using flow cytometry analysis it could be shown that about 15% of all HSCs in the mouse are dormant for many weeks. Our results suggest that these long-term dormant HSCs are unlikely to be involved in homeostatic maintenance. However they are rapidly activated and reenter the cell cycle in response to injury signals such as myeloid ablation. In addition, detection of LRCs in combination with the HSC marker c-Kit could be used to locate engrafted dormant HSCs close to the endosteal lining of the bone marrow cavities. Most surprisingly, c-Kit+LRCs were found predominantly as single cells suggesting that the specific stem cell maintaining microenvironment, called niche, has limited space and may house only single HSCs. Complex roles of the tumor suppressor gene Pten in the hematopoietic system. The phosphatase PTEN is lost in hereditary and sporadic forms of human cancers, including gliomas, endometrial and breast cancers. Pten inhibits the PI3-kina.se pathway and plays a key role in apoptosis, cell growth, proliferation and migration. Our aim was to study the role of Pten in normal HSCs and during leukemia formation. To do this, we generated a mouse model in which the Pten gene can be deleted in hematopoietic cells including HSCs. This was achieved by crossing the conditional ptenflox allele with either the interferona inducible MxCre or the tamoxifen inducible Scl-CreERT transgene. This allowed the conversion of the ptenflox allele into a pterr' null allele in HSCs and other hematopoietic cell types. As a result Pten mutant mice developed massive splenomegaly due to a dramatic expansion of all myeloid cells. Interestingly, while the number of bone marrow HSCs progressively decreased, the number of HSCs in the spleen increased to a similar extent. Unexpectedly, extensive cell cycle analysis showed that Pten had little or no effect on HSC dormancy or HSC self-renewal. Instead, dramatically increased levels of the mobilizing cytokine G-CSF were detected in the blood serum suggesting that loss-of Pten stimulates mobilization and migration of HSC from the BM to the spleen. Finally, transplantation of Pten deficient BM cells into immuno-compromised mice showed that Pten can function as a tumor suppressor in the hematopoietic system and that its absence leads to the rapid formation of T cell leukemia.

A general multiserver state-dependent queueing system

The work studies a general multiserver queue in which the service time of an arriving customer and the next interarrival period may depend on both the current waiting time and the server assigned to the arriving customer. Stability of the system is proved under general assumptions on the predetermined distributions describing the model. The proof exploits a combination of the Markov property of the workload process with a regenerative property of the process. The key idea leading to stability is a characterization of the limit behavior of the forward renewal process generated by regenerations. Extensions of the basic model are also studied.

Sialoglycoconjugates in Trypanosoma cruzi-host cell interaction: possible biological model - a review

A number of glycoconjugates, including glycolipids and glycoproteins, participate in the process of host-cell invasion by Trypanosoma cruzi and one of the most important carbohydrates involved on this interaction is sialic acid. It is known that parasite trans-sialidase participates with sialic acid in a coordinated fashion in the initial stages of invasion. Given the importance of these sialogycoconjugates, this review sets out various possible biological models for the interaction between the parasite and mammalian cells that possess a sialylated receptor/ligand system.

A peripheral dose calculation model for estimating second cancer risk after breast radiotherapy

AbstractBreast cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting one in eight women during their lives. Survival rates have increased steadily thanks to early diagnosis with mammography screening and more efficient treatment strategies. Post-operative radiation therapy is a standard of care in the management of breast cancer and has been shown to reduce efficiently both local recurrence rate and breast cancer mortality. Radiation therapy is however associated with some late effects for long-term survivors. Radiation-induced secondary cancer is a relatively rare but severe late effect of radiation therapy. Currently, radiotherapy plans are essentially optimized to maximize tumor control and minimize late deterministic effects (tissue reactions) that are mainly associated with high doses (» 1 Gy). With improved cure rates and new radiation therapy technologies, it is also important to evaluate and minimize secondary cancer risks for different treatment techniques. This is a particularly challenging task due to the large uncertainties in the dose-response relationship.In contrast with late deterministic effects, secondary cancers may be associated with much lower doses and therefore out-of-field doses (also called peripheral doses) that are typically inferior to 1 Gy need to be determined accurately. Out-of-field doses result from patient scatter and head scatter from the treatment unit. These doses are particularly challenging to compute and we characterized it by Monte Carlo (MC) calculation. A detailed MC model of the Siemens Primus linear accelerator has been thoroughly validated with measurements. We investigated the accuracy of such a model for retrospective dosimetry in epidemiological studies on secondary cancers. Considering that patients in such large studies could be treated on a variety of machines, we assessed the uncertainty in reconstructed peripheral dose due to the variability of peripheral dose among various linac geometries. For large open fields (> 10x10 cm2), the uncertainty would be less than 50%, but for small fields and wedged fields the uncertainty in reconstructed dose could rise up to a factor of 10. It was concluded that such a model could be used for conventional treatments using large open fields only.The MC model of the Siemens Primus linac was then used to compare out-of-field doses for different treatment techniques in a female whole-body CT-based phantom. Current techniques such as conformai wedged-based radiotherapy and hybrid IMRT were investigated and compared to older two-dimensional radiotherapy techniques. MC doses were also compared to those of a commercial Treatment Planning System (TPS). While the TPS is routinely used to determine the dose to the contralateral breast and the ipsilateral lung which are mostly out of the treatment fields, we have shown that these doses may be highly inaccurate depending on the treatment technique investigated. MC shows that hybrid IMRT is dosimetrically similar to three-dimensional wedge-based radiotherapy within the field, but offers substantially reduced doses to out-of-field healthy organs.Finally, many different approaches to risk estimations extracted from the literature were applied to the calculated MC dose distribution. Absolute risks varied substantially as did the ratio of risk between two treatment techniques, reflecting the large uncertainties involved with current risk models. Despite all these uncertainties, the hybrid IMRT investigated resulted in systematically lower cancer risks than any of the other treatment techniques. More epidemiological studies with accurate dosimetry are required in the future to construct robust risk models. In the meantime, any treatment strategy that reduces out-of-field doses to healthy organs should be investigated. Electron radiotherapy might offer interesting possibilities with this regard.RésuméLe cancer du sein affecte une femme sur huit au cours de sa vie. Grâce au dépistage précoce et à des thérapies de plus en plus efficaces, le taux de guérison a augmenté au cours du temps. La radiothérapie postopératoire joue un rôle important dans le traitement du cancer du sein en réduisant le taux de récidive et la mortalité. Malheureusement, la radiothérapie peut aussi induire des toxicités tardives chez les patients guéris. En particulier, les cancers secondaires radio-induits sont une complication rare mais sévère de la radiothérapie. En routine clinique, les plans de radiothérapie sont essentiellement optimisées pour un contrôle local le plus élevé possible tout en minimisant les réactions tissulaires tardives qui sont essentiellement associées avec des hautes doses (» 1 Gy). Toutefois, avec l'introduction de différentes nouvelles techniques et avec l'augmentation des taux de survie, il devient impératif d'évaluer et de minimiser les risques de cancer secondaire pour différentes techniques de traitement. Une telle évaluation du risque est une tâche ardue étant donné les nombreuses incertitudes liées à la relation dose-risque.Contrairement aux effets tissulaires, les cancers secondaires peuvent aussi être induits par des basses doses dans des organes qui se trouvent hors des champs d'irradiation. Ces organes reçoivent des doses périphériques typiquement inférieures à 1 Gy qui résultent du diffusé du patient et du diffusé de l'accélérateur. Ces doses sont difficiles à calculer précisément, mais les algorithmes Monte Carlo (MC) permettent de les estimer avec une bonne précision. Un modèle MC détaillé de l'accélérateur Primus de Siemens a été élaboré et validé avec des mesures. La précision de ce modèle a également été déterminée pour la reconstruction de dose en épidémiologie. Si on considère que les patients inclus dans de larges cohortes sont traités sur une variété de machines, l'incertitude dans la reconstruction de dose périphérique a été étudiée en fonction de la variabilité de la dose périphérique pour différents types d'accélérateurs. Pour de grands champs (> 10x10 cm ), l'incertitude est inférieure à 50%, mais pour de petits champs et des champs filtrés, l'incertitude de la dose peut monter jusqu'à un facteur 10. En conclusion, un tel modèle ne peut être utilisé que pour les traitements conventionnels utilisant des grands champs.Le modèle MC de l'accélérateur Primus a été utilisé ensuite pour déterminer la dose périphérique pour différentes techniques dans un fantôme corps entier basé sur des coupes CT d'une patiente. Les techniques actuelles utilisant des champs filtrés ou encore l'IMRT hybride ont été étudiées et comparées par rapport aux techniques plus anciennes. Les doses calculées par MC ont été comparées à celles obtenues d'un logiciel de planification commercial (TPS). Alors que le TPS est utilisé en routine pour déterminer la dose au sein contralatéral et au poumon ipsilatéral qui sont principalement hors des faisceaux, nous avons montré que ces doses peuvent être plus ou moins précises selon la technTque étudiée. Les calculs MC montrent que la technique IMRT est dosimétriquement équivalente à celle basée sur des champs filtrés à l'intérieur des champs de traitement, mais offre une réduction importante de la dose aux organes périphériques.Finalement différents modèles de risque ont été étudiés sur la base des distributions de dose calculées par MC. Les risques absolus et le rapport des risques entre deux techniques de traitement varient grandement, ce qui reflète les grandes incertitudes liées aux différents modèles de risque. Malgré ces incertitudes, on a pu montrer que la technique IMRT offrait une réduction du risque systématique par rapport aux autres techniques. En attendant des données épidémiologiques supplémentaires sur la relation dose-risque, toute technique offrant une réduction des doses périphériques aux organes sains mérite d'être étudiée. La radiothérapie avec des électrons offre à ce titre des possibilités intéressantes.

Bringing actors and violent conflict into forced migration literature. A model of the decision to return

Populations displaced as a result of mass violent conflict have become one of the most pressing humanitarian concerns of the last decades. They have also become one salient political issue as a perceived burden (in economic and security terms) and as an important piece in the shift towards a more interventionist paradigm in the international system, based on both humanitarian and security grounds. The saliency of these aspects has detracted attention from the analysis of the interactions between relocation processes and violent conflict. Violent conflict studies have also largely ignored those interactions as a result of the consideration of these processes as mere reaction movements determined by structural conditions. This article takes the view that individual’s agency is retained during such processes, and that it is consequential, calling for the need to introduce a micro perspective. Based on this, a model for the individual’s decision of return is presented. The model has the potential to account for the dynamics of return at both the individual and the aggregate level. And it further helps to grasp fundamental interconnections with violent conflict. Some relevant conclusions are derived for the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina and about the implications of the politicization of return.