Challenging the predictive ability of accounting techniques in modelling organizational futures

This article considers the role of accounting in organisational decision making. It challenges the rational nature of decisions made in organisations through the use of accounting models and the problems of predicting the future through the use of such models. The use of accounting in this manner is evaluated from an epochal postmodern stance. Issues raised by chaos theory and the uncertainty principle are used to demonstrate problems with the predictive ability of accounting models. The authors argue that any consideration of the predictive value of accounting needs to change to incorporate a recognition of the turbulent external environment, if it is to be of use for organisational decision making. Thus it is argued that the role of accounting as a mechanism for knowledge creation regarding the future is fundamentally flawed. We take this as a starting-point to argue for the real purpose of the use of the predictive techniques of accounting, using its ritualistic role in the context of myth creation to argue for the cultural benefits of the use of such flawed techniques.

Computational mechanics of molecular systems:quantifying high-dimensional dynamics by distribution of Poincaré recurrence times

A framework that connects computational mechanics and molecular dynamics has been developed and described. As the key parts of the framework, the problem of symbolising molecular trajectory and the associated interrelation between microscopic phase space variables and macroscopic observables of the molecular system are considered. Following Shalizi and Moore, it is shown that causal states, the constituent parts of the main construct of computational mechanics, the e-machine, define areas of the phase space that are optimal in the sense of transferring information from the micro-variables to the macro-observables. We have demonstrated that, based on the decay of their Poincare´ return times, these areas can be divided into two classes that characterise the separation of the phase space into resonant and chaotic areas. The first class is characterised by predominantly short time returns, typical to quasi-periodic or periodic trajectories. This class includes a countable number of areas corresponding to resonances. The second class includes trajectories with chaotic behaviour characterised by the exponential decay of return times in accordance with the Poincare´ theorem.

On models for magnetic field line diffusion

In this contribution, certain aspects of the nonlinear dynamics of magnetic field lines are reviewed. First, the basic facts (known from literature) concerning the Hamiltonian structure are briefly summarized. The paper then concentrates on the following subjects: (i) Transition from the continuous description to discrete maps; (ii) Characteristics of incomplete chaos; (iii) Control of chaos. The presentation is concluded by some remarks on the motion of particles in stochastic magnetic fields.

Wave chaotic behaviour generated by linear systems

It is shown that regimes with dynamical chaos are inherent not only to nonlinear system but they can be generated by initially linear systems and the requirements for chaotic dynamics and characteristics need further elaboration. Three simplest physical models are considered as examples. In the first, dynamic chaos in the interaction of three linear oscillators is investigated. Analogous process is shown in the second model of electromagnetic wave scattering in a double periodical inhomogeneous medium occupying half-space. The third model is a linear parametric problem for the electromagnetic field in homogeneous dielectric medium which permittivity is modulated in time. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Investigation of chaotic mixing in laminar fluid systems by the use of computational fluid dynamics

This work presents significant development into chaotic mixing induced through periodic boundaries and twisting flows. Three-dimensional closed and throughput domains are shown to exhibit chaotic motion under both time periodic and time independent boundary motions, A property is developed originating from a signature of chaos, sensitive dependence to initial conditions, which successfully quantifies the degree of disorder withjn the mixing systems presented and enables comparisons of the disorder throughout ranges of operating parameters, This work omits physical experimental results but presents significant computational investigation into chaotic systems using commercial computational fluid dynamics techniques. Physical experiments with chaotic mixing systems are, by their very nature, difficult to extract information beyond the recognition that disorder does, does not of partially occurs. The initial aim of this work is to observe whether it is possible to accurately simulate previously published physical experimental results through using commercial CFD techniques. This is shown to be possible for simple two-dimensional systems with time periodic wall movements. From this, and subsequent macro and microscopic observations of flow regimes, a simple explanation is developed for how boundary operating parameters affect the system disorder. Consider the classic two-dimensional rectangular cavity with time periodic velocity of the upper and lower walls, causing two opposing streamline motions. The degree of disorder within the system is related to the magnitude of displacement of individual particles within these opposing streamlines. The rationale is then employed in this work to develop and investigate more complex three-dimensional mixing systems that exhibit throughputs and time independence and are therefore more realistic and a significant advance towards designing chaotic mixers for process industries. Domains inducing chaotic motion through twisting flows are also briefly considered. This work concludes by offering possible advancements to the property developed to quantify disorder and suggestions of domains and associated boundary conditions that are expected to produce chaotic mixing.

Approximating differentiable relationships between delay embedded dynamical systems with radical basis functions

This thesis is about the study of relationships between experimental dynamical systems. The basic approach is to fit radial basis function maps between time delay embeddings of manifolds. We have shown that under certain conditions these maps are generically diffeomorphisms, and can be analysed to determine whether or not the manifolds in question are diffeomorphically related to each other. If not, a study of the distribution of errors may provide information about the lack of equivalence between the two. The method has applications wherever two or more sensors are used to measure a single system, or where a single sensor can respond on more than one time scale: their respective time series can be tested to determine whether or not they are coupled, and to what degree. One application which we have explored is the determination of a minimum embedding dimension for dynamical system reconstruction. In this special case the diffeomorphism in question is closely related to the predictor for the time series itself. Linear transformations of delay embedded manifolds can also be shown to have nonlinear inverses under the right conditions, and we have used radial basis functions to approximate these inverse maps in a variety of contexts. This method is particularly useful when the linear transformation corresponds to the delay embedding of a finite impulse response filtered time series. One application of fitting an inverse to this linear map is the detection of periodic orbits in chaotic attractors, using suitably tuned filters. This method has also been used to separate signals with known bandwidths from deterministic noise, by tuning a filter to stop the signal and then recovering the chaos with the nonlinear inverse. The method may have applications to the cancellation of noise generated by mechanical or electrical systems. In the course of this research a sophisticated piece of software has been developed. The program allows the construction of a hierarchy of delay embeddings from scalar and multi-valued time series. The embedded objects can be analysed graphically, and radial basis function maps can be fitted between them asynchronously, in parallel, on a multi-processor machine. In addition to a graphical user interface, the program can be driven by a batch mode command language, incorporating the concept of parallel and sequential instruction groups and enabling complex sequences of experiments to be performed in parallel in a resource-efficient manner.

Amplifier similariton fiber laser with nonlinear spectral compression

We propose a new concept of a fiber laser architecture supporting self-similar pulse evolution in the amplifier and nonlinear spectral pulse compression in the passive fiber. The latter process allows for transform-limited picosecond pulse generation, and improves the laser’s power efficiency by preventing strong spectral filtering from being highly dissipative. Aside from laser technology, the proposed scheme opens new possibilities for studying nonlinear dynamical processes. As an example, we demonstrate a clear period-doubling route to chaos in such a nonlinear laser system.

Probabilistic synchronisation of pinning control

This paper is concerned with synchronization of complex stochastic dynamical networks in the presence of noise and functional uncertainty. A probabilistic control method for adaptive synchronization is presented. All required probabilistic models of the network are assumed to be unknown therefore estimated to be dependent on the connectivity strength, the state and control values. Robustness of the probabilistic controller is proved via the Liapunov method. Furthermore, based on the residual error of the network states we introduce the definition of stochastic pinning controllability. A coupled map lattice with spatiotemporal chaos is taken as an example to illustrate all theoretical developments. The theoretical derivation is complemented by its validation on two representative examples.

Classification of Biomedical Signals using the Dynamics of the False Nearest Neighbours (DFNN) Algorithm

* This study was supported in part by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and by the Gastrointestinal Motility Laboratory (University of Alberta Hospitals) in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.

Simultaneous Control of Chaotic Systems Using RBF Networks

Chaos control is a concept that recently acquiring more attention among the research community, concerning the fields of engineering, physics, chemistry, biology and mathematic. This paper presents a method to simultaneous control of deterministic chaos in several nonlinear dynamical systems. A radial basis function networks (RBFNs) has been used to control chaotic trajectories in the equilibrium points. Such neural network improves results, avoiding those problems that appear in other control methods, being also efficient dealing with a relatively small random dynamical noise.

Soliton radiation beat analysis of optical pulses generated from two continuous-wave lasers

We propose a fibre-based approach for generation of optical frequency combs (OFCs) with the aim of calibration of astronomical spectrographs in the low and medium-resolution range. This approach includes two steps: in the first step, an appropriate state of optical pulses is generated and subsequently moulded in the second step delivering the desired OFC. More precisely, the first step is realised by injection of two continuous-wave (CW) lasers into a conventional single-mode fibre, whereas the second step generates a broad OFC by using the optical solitons generated in step one as initial condition. We investigate the conversion of a bichromatic input wave produced by two initial CW lasers into a train of optical solitons, which happens in the fibre used as step one. Especially, we are interested in the soliton content of the pulses created in this fibre. For that, we study different initial conditions (a single cosine-hump, an Akhmediev breather, and a deeply modulated bichromatic wave) by means of soliton radiation beat analysis and compare the results to draw conclusion about the soliton content of the state generated in the first step. In case of a deeply modulated bichromatic wave, we observed the formation of a collective soliton crystal for low input powers and the appearance of separated solitons for high input powers. An intermediate state showing the features of both, the soliton crystal and the separated solitons, turned out to be most suitable for the generation of OFC for the purpose of calibration of astronomical spectrographs.

Towards probabilistic synchronization of local controllers

The traditional use of global and centralised control methods, fails for large, complex, noisy and highly connected systems, which typify many real world industrial and commercial systems. This paper provides an efficient bottom up design of distributed control in which many simple components communicate and cooperate to achieve a joint system goal. Each component acts individually so as to maximise personal utility whilst obtaining probabilistic information on the global system merely through local message-passing. This leads to an implied scalable and collective control strategy for complex dynamical systems, without the problems of global centralised control. Robustness is addressed by employing a fully probabilistic design, which can cope with inherent uncertainties, can be implemented adaptively and opens a systematic rich way to information sharing. This paper opens the foreseen direction and inspects the proposed design on a linearised version of coupled map lattice with spatiotemporal chaos. A version close to linear quadratic design gives an initial insight into possible behaviours of such networks.

Convection induced by instabilities in the presence of a transverse seepage

The transition of laterally heated flows in a vertical layer and in the presence of a streamwise pressure gradient is examined numerically for the case of different values Prandtl number. The stability analysis of the basic flow for the pure hydrodynamic case ( Pr = 0 ) was reported in [1]. We find that in the absence of transverse pumping the previously known critical parameters are recovered [2], while as the strength of the Poiseuille flow component is increased the convective motion is delayed considerably. Following the linear stability analysis for the vertical channel flow our attention is focused on a study of the finite am- plitude secondary travelling-wave (TW) solutions that develop from the perturbations of the transverse roll type imposed on the basic flow and temperature profiles. The linear stability of the secondary TWs against three-dimensional perturbations is also examined and it is shown that the bifurcating tertiary flows are phase-locked to the secondary TWs.

Nemlineáris dinamika klasszikus növekedési modellekben (Nonlinear dynamics in classical economic growth models)

Ebben a tanulmányban a klasszikus Harrod növekedési modellt nemlineáris kiterjesztéssel, keynesi és schumpeteri tradíciók bevezetésével reprezentatív ügynök modellbe alakítjuk. A híres Lucas kritika igazolásaként megmutatjuk, hogy az intrinsic gazdasági növekedési ütemek trajektóriái vagy egy turbulens káoszba szóródnak szét, vagy egy nagyméretű rendhez vezetnek, ami elsődlegesen a megfelelő fogyasztási függvény típusától függ, s bizonyos paraméterek piaci értékei, pedig csak másodlagos szerepet játszanak. A másik meglepő eredmény empirikus, ami szerint külkereskedelmi többlet, a hazai valuta bizonyos devizapiaci értékei mellett, különös attraktorokat generálhat. _____ In this paper the classical Harrodian growth model is transformed into a representative agent model by its nonlinear extensions and the Keynesian and Schumpeterian traditions. For the proof of the celebrated Lucas critique it is shown that the trajectories of intrinsic economic growth rates either are scattered into a turbulent chaos or lead to a large scale order. It depends on the type of the appropriate consumption function, and the market values of some parameters are playing only secondary role.Another surprising result is empirical: the international trade su±cit may generate strange attractors under some exchange rate values.

Improving the predictability of time series by chaotic parameter estimation

Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^