How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Mechanisms regulating the proliferative potential of human CD8+ T lymphocytes overexpressing telomerase.

In human somatic cells, including T lymphocytes, telomeres progressively shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to a state of cellular senescence. Ectopic expression of telomerase results in the extension of their replicative life spans without inducing changes associated with transformation. However, it is yet unknown whether somatic cells that overexpress telomerase are physiologically indistinguishable from normal cells. Using CD8+ T lymphocyte clones overexpressing telomerase, we investigated the molecular mechanisms that regulate T cell proliferation. In this study, we show that early passage T cell clones transduced or not with human telomerase reverse transcriptase displayed identical growth rates upon mitogenic stimulation and no marked global changes in gene expression. Surprisingly, reduced proliferative responses were observed in human telomerase reverse transcriptase-transduced cells with extended life spans. These cells, despite maintaining high expression levels of genes involved in the cell cycle progression, also showed increased expression in several genes found in common with normal aging T lymphocytes. Strikingly, late passage T cells overexpressing telomerase accumulated the cyclin-dependent inhibitors p16Ink4a and p21Cip1 that have largely been associated with in vitro growth arrest. We conclude that alternative growth arrest mechanisms such as those mediated by p16Ink4a and p21Cip1 still remained intact and regulated the growth potential of cells independently of their telomere status.

Assaying the regulatory potential of mammalian conserved non-coding sequences in human cells.

BACKGROUND: Conserved non-coding sequences in the human genome are approximately tenfold more abundant than known genes, and have been hypothesized to mark the locations of cis-regulatory elements. However, the global contribution of conserved non-coding sequences to the transcriptional regulation of human genes is currently unknown. Deeply conserved elements shared between humans and teleost fish predominantly flank genes active during morphogenesis and are enriched for positive transcriptional regulatory elements. However, such deeply conserved elements account for <1% of the conserved non-coding sequences in the human genome, which are predominantly mammalian. RESULTS: We explored the regulatory potential of a large sample of these 'common' conserved non-coding sequences using a variety of classic assays, including chromatin remodeling, and enhancer/repressor and promoter activity. When tested across diverse human model cell types, we find that the fraction of experimentally active conserved non-coding sequences within any given cell type is low (approximately 5%), and that this proportion increases only modestly when considered collectively across cell types. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that classic assays of cis-regulatory potential are unlikely to expose the functional potential of the substantial majority of mammalian conserved non-coding sequences in the human genome.

Global Prospects for Dairy in Argentina and Chile: Evidence from Field Visits and Model Simulations, August 2006

We assess the international competitiveness of the dairy industries in Argentina and Chile, combining recent market intelligence gathered from field visits with quantitative simulations of global policy reform scenarios. Both countries exhibit strong potential for export growth but face significant internal and external barriers to expanding their dairy industries. Global policy reforms would resolve some of the international obstacles to their expansion. Argentina has great potential, but it is handicapped by its current macroeconomic policies, trade policy distortions, and the uncertainty associated with policy implementation. Chile is more limited in terms of natural capacity for expansion, but it has a positive trade and investment environment.

Reconciling global mammal prioritization schemes into a strategy.

The huge conservation interest that mammals attract and the large datasets that have been collected on them have propelled a diversity of global mammal prioritization schemes, but no comprehensive global mammal conservation strategy. We highlight some of the potential discrepancies between the schemes presented in this theme issue, including: conservation of species or areas, reactive and proactive conservation approaches, conservation knowledge and action, levels of aggregation of indicators of trend and scale issues. We propose that recently collected global mammal data and many of the mammal prioritization schemes now available could be incorporated into a comprehensive global strategy for the conservation of mammals. The task of developing such a strategy should be coordinated by a super-partes, authoritative institution (e.g. the International Union for Conservation of Nature, IUCN). The strategy would facilitate funding agencies, conservation organizations and national institutions to rapidly identify a number of short-term and long-term global conservation priorities, and act complementarily to achieve them.

Study of the mechanisms regulating the proliferative potential of human CD8+T lymphocytes over-expressing telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT)

Résumé La plupart des cellules issues du sang ont une durée de vie limitée. Dans les cellules somatiques humaines, y incluant les lymphocytes T, la taille des télomères diminue progressivement à chaque division cellulaire, pouvant aboutir à des instabilités chromosomiques. L'expression ectopique du gène de la transcriptase réverse de la télomérase (hTERT) dans les cellules restaure l'activité de la télomérase, et permet un rallongement de leur vie réplicative. Malgré l'absence de signes caractéristiques de transformation, nous ne savons pas encore si les cellules somatiques qui surexpriment hTERT sont physiologiquement indiscernables des cellules normales. Certaines études récentes proposent que la télomérase joue plusieurs rôles additionnels dans d'autres phénomènes biologiques tels que la réparation de l'ADN, la survie et la croissance des cellules. Dans notre étude, nous avons utilisé des clones issus de lymphocytes T cytotoxiques surexprimant la télomérase afin d'étudier les mécanismes moléculaires qui règlent leur prolifération et leur sénescence. Nous avons montré que les «jeunes » cellules T exprimant ou non hTERT révèlent des taux de croissance identiques suite à des réponses de stimulation induites par des mitogènes. De plus, aucun changement global dans leur expression des gènes n'a pu être mis en évidence. Curieusement, nous avons observé des réponses réduites dans la prolifération des cellules transduites avec la télomérase qui présentaient une élongation des télomères et une durée de vie prolongée. Ces cellules, malgré le maintien d'un niveau élevé de l'expression de gènes impliqués dans la progression du cycle cellulaire, ont également montré une expression accrue de plusieurs gènes trouvés en commun avec nos lymphocytes T vieillissants n'exprimant pas de télomérase. En particulier, les cellules ayant une durée de vie prolongée grâce à l'expression de la télomérase accumulaient également certains inhibiteurs du cycle cellulaire tels que p16Ink4a et p21Cip1, associés à l'arrêt de la croissance cellulaire. En résumé, nos résultats indiquent la présence fonctionnelle de mécanismes alternatifs pouvant contrôler la croissance réplicative de ces cellules; ils sont donc encourageants dans l'optique d'une utilisation à moindre risque de lymphocytes T «immortalisés » à des fins thérapeutiques pour traiter les tumeurs malignes ou les infections. Summary Most mature blood cells have a finite life span. In human somatic cells, including T lymphocytes, telomeres progressively shorten with each cell division eventually leading to chromosomal instability. Ectopic expression of the human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT) gene in cells restores telomerase activity and results in the extension of their replicative life span. Despite lack of transformation characteristics, it is yet unknown whether somatic cells that over-express telomerase are biologically and physiologically indistinguishable from normal cells. Recent data suggest that telomerase might mediate additional functions in DNA repair, cell survival and cell growth. Using CD8+ T lymphocyte clones over-expressing telomerase we investigated the molecular mechanisms that regulate T cell proliferation and senescence. Here we show that early-passage T cell clones transduced or not with hTERT displayed identical growth rates upon mitogenic stimulation and no marked global changes in gene expression. Surprisingly, reduced proliferative responses were observed in hTERT-transduced cells with elongated telomeres and extended life span. These cells, despite maintaining high expression level of genes involved in cell cycle division and progression, also showed increased expression of several genes associated with normal aging T lymphocytes. In particular, late passage T cells over-expressing telomerase accumulated the cyclin-dependent inhibitors p16INK4a and p21CIP1 that have largely been associated with in vitro growth arrest. Whether tumor-reactive CD8+ T cells that ectopically express telomerase could now be used for adoptive transfer therapy in cancer patients remains unclear at this point. Nevertheless, our results regarding the safe and effective use of hTERT-transduced lymphocytes are encouraging, since they indicate that alternative growth arrest mechanisms such as p 16 and p21 are still functional in these cells and regulate to some extend their growth potential.

Global Genomic Diversity of Human Papillomavirus 6 Based on 724 Isolates and 190 Complete Genome Sequences.

Human papillomavirus type 6 (HPV6) is the major etiological agent of anogenital warts and laryngeal papillomas and has been included in both the quadrivalent and nonavalent prophylactic HPV vaccines. This study investigated the global genomic diversity of HPV6, using 724 isolates and 190 complete genomes from six continents, and the association of HPV6 genomic variants with geographical location, anatomical site of infection/disease, and gender. Initially, a 2,800-bp E5a-E5b-L1-LCR fragment was sequenced from 492/530 (92.8%) HPV6-positive samples collected for this study. Among them, 130 exhibited at least one single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), indel, or amino acid change in the E5a-E5b-L1-LCR fragment and were sequenced in full. A global alignment and maximum likelihood tree of 190 complete HPV6 genomes (130 fully sequenced in this study and 60 obtained from sequence repositories) revealed two variant lineages, A and B, and five B sublineages: B1, B2, B3, B4, and B5. HPV6 (sub)lineage-specific SNPs and a 960-bp representative region for whole-genome-based phylogenetic clustering within the L2 open reading frame were identified. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that lineage B predominated globally. Sublineage B3 was more common in Africa and North and South America, and lineage A was more common in Asia. Sublineages B1 and B3 were associated with anogenital infections, indicating a potential lesion-specific predilection of some HPV6 sublineages. Females had higher odds for infection with sublineage B3 than males. In conclusion, a global HPV6 phylogenetic analysis revealed the existence of two variant lineages and five sublineages, showing some degree of ethnogeographic, gender, and/or disease predilection in their distribution. IMPORTANCE: This study established the largest database of globally circulating HPV6 genomic variants and contributed a total of 130 new, complete HPV6 genome sequences to available sequence repositories. Two HPV6 variant lineages and five sublineages were identified and showed some degree of association with geographical location, anatomical site of infection/disease, and/or gender. We additionally identified several HPV6 lineage- and sublineage-specific SNPs to facilitate the identification of HPV6 variants and determined a representative region within the L2 gene that is suitable for HPV6 whole-genome-based phylogenetic analysis. This study complements and significantly expands the current knowledge of HPV6 genetic diversity and forms a comprehensive basis for future epidemiological, evolutionary, functional, pathogenicity, vaccination, and molecular assay development studies.

Gene-Age Interactions in Blood Pressure Regulation: A Large-Scale Investigation with the CHARGE, Global BPgen, and ICBP Consortia.

Although age-dependent effects on blood pressure (BP) have been reported, they have not been systematically investigated in large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We leveraged the infrastructure of three well-established consortia (CHARGE, GBPgen, and ICBP) and a nonstandard approach (age stratification and metaregression) to conduct a genome-wide search of common variants with age-dependent effects on systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP), mean arterial (MAP), and pulse (PP) pressure. In a two-staged design using 99,241 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 20 genome-wide significant (p ≤ 5 × 10(-8)) loci by using joint tests of the SNP main effect and SNP-age interaction. Nine of the significant loci demonstrated nominal evidence of age-dependent effects on BP by tests of the interactions alone. Index SNPs in the EHBP1L1 (DBP and MAP), CASZ1 (SBP and MAP), and GOSR2 (PP) loci exhibited the largest age interactions, with opposite directions of effect in the young versus the old. The changes in the genetic effects over time were small but nonnegligible (up to 1.58 mm Hg over 60 years). The EHBP1L1 locus was discovered through gene-age interactions only in whites but had DBP main effects replicated (p = 8.3 × 10(-4)) in 8,682 Asians from Singapore, indicating potential interethnic heterogeneity. A secondary analysis revealed 22 loci with evidence of age-specific effects (e.g., only in 20 to 29-year-olds). Age can be used to select samples with larger genetic effect sizes and more homogenous phenotypes, which may increase statistical power. Age-dependent effects identified through novel statistical approaches can provide insight into the biology and temporal regulation underlying BP associations.

The second law of thermodynamics and the global climate system : A review of the maximum entropy production principle

The long-term mean properties of the global climate system and those of turbulent fluid systems are reviewed from a thermodynamic viewpoint. Two general expressions are derived for a rate of entropy production due to thermal and viscous dissipation (turbulent dissipation) in a fluid system. It is shown with these expressions that maximum entropy production in the Earth s climate system suggested by Paltridge, as well as maximum transport properties of heat or momentum in a turbulent system suggested by Malkus and Busse, correspond to a state in which the rate of entropy production due to the turbulent dissipation is at a maximum. Entropy production due to absorption of solar radiation in the climate system is found to be irrelevant to the maximized properties associated with turbulence. The hypothesis of maximum entropy production also seems to be applicable to the planetary atmospheres of Mars and Titan and perhaps to mantle convection. Lorenz s conjecture on maximum generation of available potential energy is shown to be akin to this hypothesis with a few minor approximations. A possible mechanism by which turbulent fluid systems adjust themselves to the states of maximum entropy production is presented as a selffeedback mechanism for the generation of available potential energy. These results tend to support the hypothesis of maximum entropy production that underlies a wide variety of nonlinear fluid systems, including our planet as well as other planets and stars

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review

Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.

Towards a global criteria based framework for the sustainability assessment of bioethanol supply chains: application to the Swiss dilemma : is local produced bioethanol more sustainable than bioethanol imported from Brazil?

Biofuels are considered as a promising substitute for fossil fuels when considering the possible reduction of greenhouse gases emissions. However limiting their impacts on potential benefits for reducing climate change is shortsighted. Global sustainability assessments are necessary to determine the sustainability of supply chains. We propose a new global criterion based framework enabling a comprehensive international comparison of bioethanol supply chains. The interest of this framework is that the selection of the sustainability indicators is qualified on three criterions: relevance, reliability and adaptability to the local context. Sustainability issues have been handled along environmental, social and economical issues. This new framework has been applied for a specific issue: from a Swiss perspective, is locally produced bioethanol in Switzerland more sustainable than imported from Brazil? Thanks to this framework integrating local context in its indicator definition, Brazilian production of bioethanol is shown as energy efficient and economically interesting for Brazil. From a strictly economic point of view, bioethanol production within Switzerland is not justified for Swiss consumption and questionable for the environmental issue. The social dimension is delicate to assess due to the lack of reliable data and is strongly linked to the agricultural policy in both countries. There is a need of establishing minimum sustainability criteria for imported bioethanol to avoid unwanted negative or leakage effects.

Local and global error models to improve uncertainty quantification

In groundwater applications, Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the uncertainty on geological parameters. However, their brute-force application becomes computationally prohibitive for highly detailed geological descriptions, complex physical processes, and a large number of realizations. The Distance Kernel Method (DKM) overcomes this issue by clustering the realizations in a multidimensional space based on the flow responses obtained by means of an approximate (computationally cheaper) model; then, the uncertainty is estimated from the exact responses that are computed only for one representative realization per cluster (the medoid). Usually, DKM is employed to decrease the size of the sample of realizations that are considered to estimate the uncertainty. We propose to use the information from the approximate responses for uncertainty quantification. The subset of exact solutions provided by DKM is then employed to construct an error model and correct the potential bias of the approximate model. Two error models are devised that both employ the difference between approximate and exact medoid solutions, but differ in the way medoid errors are interpolated to correct the whole set of realizations. The Local Error Model rests upon the clustering defined by DKM and can be seen as a natural way to account for intra-cluster variability; the Global Error Model employs a linear interpolation of all medoid errors regardless of the cluster to which the single realization belongs. These error models are evaluated for an idealized pollution problem in which the uncertainty of the breakthrough curve needs to be estimated. For this numerical test case, we demonstrate that the error models improve the uncertainty quantification provided by the DKM algorithm and are effective in correcting the bias of the estimate computed solely from the MsFV results. The framework presented here is not specific to the methods considered and can be applied to other combinations of approximate models and techniques to select a subset of realizations

Assessing the risks and uncertainties of regional crop potential under changing climate in Finland

Selostus: Arviointi Suomen kasvintuotantopotentiaalin alueellisista riskeistä ja epävarmuuksista ilmaston muuttuessa