901 resultados para extinction probability


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Emotional processes modulate the size of the eyeblink startle reflex in a picture-viewing paradigm, but it is unclear whether emotional processes are responsible for blink modulation in human conditioning. Experiment 1 involved an aversive differential conditioning phase followed by an extinction phase in which acoustic startle probes were presented during CS+, CS-, and intertrial intervals. Valence ratings and affective priming showed the CS+ was unpleasant postacquisition. Blink startle magnitude was larger during CS+ than during CS-. Experiment 2 used the same design in two groups trained with pleasant or unpleasant pictorial USs. Ratings and affective priming indicated that the CS+ had become pleasant or unpleasant in the respective group. Regardless of CS valence, blink startle was larger during CS+ than CS- in both groups. Thus, startle was not modulated by CS valence.

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Approximately 20 years have passed now since the NTSB issued its original recommendation to expedite development, certification and production of low-cost proximity warning and conflict detection systems for general aviation [1]. While some systems are in place (TCAS [2]), ¡¨see-and-avoid¡¨ remains the primary means of separation between light aircrafts sharing the national airspace. The requirement for a collision avoidance or sense-and-avoid capability onboard unmanned aircraft has been identified by leading government, industry and regulatory bodies as one of the most significant challenges facing the routine operation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in the national airspace system (NAS) [3, 4]. In this thesis, we propose and develop a novel image-based collision avoidance system to detect and avoid an upcoming conflict scenario (with an intruder) without first estimating or filtering range. The proposed collision avoidance system (CAS) uses relative bearing ƒÛ and angular-area subtended ƒê , estimated from an image, to form a test statistic AS C . This test statistic is used in a thresholding technique to decide if a conflict scenario is imminent. If deemed necessary, the system will command the aircraft to perform a manoeuvre based on ƒÛ and constrained by the CAS sensor field-of-view. Through the use of a simulation environment where the UAS is mathematically modelled and a flight controller developed, we show that using Monte Carlo simulations a probability of a Mid Air Collision (MAC) MAC RR or a Near Mid Air Collision (NMAC) RiskRatio can be estimated. We also show the performance gain this system has over a simplified version (bearings-only ƒÛ ). This performance gain is demonstrated in the form of a standard operating characteristic curve. Finally, it is shown that the proposed CAS performs at a level comparable to current manned aviations equivalent level of safety (ELOS) expectations for Class E airspace. In some cases, the CAS may be oversensitive in manoeuvring the owncraft when not necessary, but this constitutes a more conservative and therefore safer, flying procedures in most instances.

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This work examines the effect of landmark placement on the efficiency and accuracy of risk-bounded searches over probabilistic costmaps for mobile robot path planning. In previous work, risk-bounded searches were shown to offer in excess of 70% efficiency increases over normal heuristic search methods. The technique relies on precomputing distance estimates to landmarks which are then used to produce probability distributions over exact heuristics for use in heuristic searches such as A* and D*. The location and number of these landmarks therefore influence greatly the efficiency of the search and the quality of the risk bounds. Here four new methods of selecting landmarks for risk based search are evaluated. Results are shown which demonstrate that landmark selection needs to take into account the centrality of the landmark, and that diminishing rewards are obtained from using large numbers of landmarks.

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Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

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An introduction to design of eliciting knowledge from experts.

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Experimental results for a reactive non-buoyant plume of nitric oxide (NO) in a turbulent grid flow doped with ozone (O3) are presented. The Damkohler number (Nd) for the experiment is of order unity indicating the turbulence and chemistry have similar timescales and both affect the chemical reaction rate. Continuous measurements of two components of velocity using hot-wire anemometry and the two reactants using chemiluminescent analysers have been made. A spatial resolution for the reactants of four Kolmogorov scales has been possible because of the novel design of the experiment. Measurements at this resolution for a reactive plume are not found in the literature. The experiment has been conducted relatively close to the grid in the region where self-similarity of the plume has not yet developed. Statistics of a conserved scalar, deduced from both reactive and non-reactive scalars by conserved scalar theory, are used to establish the mixing field of the plume, which is found to be consistent with theoretical considerations and with those found by other investigators in non-reative flows. Where appropriate the reactive species means and higher moments, probability density functions, joint statistics and spectra are compared with their respective frozen, equilibrium and reaction-dominated limits deduced from conserved scalar theory. The theoretical limits bracket reactive scalar statistics where this should be so according to conserved scalar theory. Both reactants approach their equilibrium limits with greater distance downstream. In the region of measurement, the plume reactant behaves as the reactant not in excess and the ambient reactant behaves as the reactant in excess. The reactant covariance lies outside its frozen and equilibrium limits for this value of Vd. The reaction rate closure of Toor (1969) is compared with the measured reaction rate. The gradient model is used to obtain turbulent diffusivities from turbulent fluxes. Diffusivity of a non-reactive scalar is found to be close to that measured in non-reactive flows by others.

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Background: Cabergoline is an ergotamine derivative that increases the expression of glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) in vitro. We recently showed that GDNF in the ventral tegmental area (VTA) reduces the motivation to consume alcohol. We therefore set out to determine whether cabergoline administration decreases alcohol-drinking and -seeking behaviors via GDNF. Methods: Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay (ELISA) were used to measure GDNF levels. Western blot analysis was used for phosphorylation experiments. Operant self-administration in rats and a two-bottle choice procedure in mice were used to assess alcohol-drinking behaviors. Instrumental performance tested during extinction was used to measure alcohol-seeking behavior. The [35S]GTPγS binding assay was used to assess the expression and function of the dopamine D2 receptor (D2R). Results: We found that treatment of the dopaminergic-like cell line SH-SY5Y with cabergoline and systemic administration of cabergoline in rats resulted in an increase in GDNF level and in the activation of the GDNF pathway. Cabergoline treatment decreased alcohol-drinking and -seeking behaviors including relapse, and its action to reduce alcohol consumption was localized to the VTA. Finally, the increase in GDNF expression and the decrease in alcohol consumption by cabergoline were abolished in GDNF heterozygous knockout mice. Conclusions: Together, these findings suggest that cabergoline-mediated upregulation of the GDNF pathway attenuates alcohol-drinking behaviors and relapse. Alcohol abuse and addiction are devastating and costly problems worldwide. This study puts forward the possibility that cabergoline might be an effective treatment for these disorders. © 2009 Society of Biological Psychiatry.

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A major obstacle in the development of new medications for the treatment of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) has been the lack of preclinical, oral ethanol consumption paradigms that elicit high consumption. We have previously shown that rats exposed to 20% ethanol intermittently in a two-bottle choice paradigm will consume two times more ethanol than those given continuous access without the use of water deprivation or sucrose fading (5-6 g/kg every 24 h vs 2-3 g/kg every 24 h, respectively). In this study, we have adapted the model to an operant self-administration paradigm. Long-Evans rats were given access to 20% ethanol in overnight sessions on one of two schedules: (1) intermittent (Monday, Wednesday, and Friday) or (2) daily (Monday through Friday). With the progression of the overnight sessions, both groups showed a steady escalation in drinking (3-6 g/kg every 14 h) without the use of a sucrose-fading procedure. Following the acquisition phase, the 20% ethanol groups consumed significantly more ethanol than did animals trained to consume 10% ethanol with a sucrose fade (1.5 vs 0.7 g/kg every 30 min) and reached significantly higher blood ethanol concentrations. In addition, training history (20% ethanol vs 10% ethanol with sucrose fade) had a significant effect on the subsequent self-administration of higher concentrations of ethanol. Administration of the pharmacological stressor yohimbine following extinction caused a significant reinstatement of ethanol-seeking behavior. Both 20% ethanol models show promise and are amenable to the study of maintenance, motivation, and reinstatement. Furthermore, training animals to lever press for ethanol without the use of sucrose fading removes a potential confound from self-administration studies. © 2010 Nature Publishing Group All rights reserved.

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Rats are superior to the most advanced robots when it comes to creating and exploiting spatial representations. A wild rat can have a foraging range of hundreds of meters, possibly kilometers, and yet the rodent can unerringly return to its home after each foraging mission, and return to profitable foraging locations at a later date (Davis, et al., 1948). The rat runs through undergrowth and pipes with few distal landmarks, along paths where the visual, textural, and olfactory appearance constantly change (Hardy and Taylor, 1980; Recht, 1988). Despite these challenges the rat builds, maintains, and exploits internal representations of large areas of the real world throughout its two to three year lifetime. While algorithms exist that allow robots to build maps, the questions of how to maintain those maps and how to handle change in appearance over time remain open. The robotic approach to map building has been dominated by algorithms that optimise the geometry of the map based on measurements of distances to features. In a robotic approach, measurements of distance to features are taken with range-measuring devices such as laser range finders or ultrasound sensors, and in some cases estimates of depth from visual information. The features are incorporated into the map based on previous readings of other features in view and estimates of self-motion. The algorithms explicitly model the uncertainty in measurements of range and the measurement of self-motion, and use probability theory to find optimal solutions for the geometric configuration of the map features (Dissanayake, et al., 2001; Thrun and Leonard, 2008). Some of the results from the application of these algorithms have been impressive, ranging from three-dimensional maps of large urban strucutures (Thrun and Montemerlo, 2006) to natural environments (Montemerlo, et al., 2003).

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Bioinformatics involves analyses of biological data such as DNA sequences, microarrays and protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks. Its two main objectives are the identification of genes or proteins and the prediction of their functions. Biological data often contain uncertain and imprecise information. Fuzzy theory provides useful tools to deal with this type of information, hence has played an important role in analyses of biological data. In this thesis, we aim to develop some new fuzzy techniques and apply them on DNA microarrays and PPI networks. We will focus on three problems: (1) clustering of microarrays; (2) identification of disease-associated genes in microarrays; and (3) identification of protein complexes in PPI networks. The first part of the thesis aims to detect, by the fuzzy C-means (FCM) method, clustering structures in DNA microarrays corrupted by noise. Because of the presence of noise, some clustering structures found in random data may not have any biological significance. In this part, we propose to combine the FCM with the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) for clustering microarray data. The purpose of EMD is to reduce, preferably to remove, the effect of noise, resulting in what is known as denoised data. We call this method the fuzzy C-means method with empirical mode decomposition (FCM-EMD). We applied this method on yeast and serum microarrays, and the silhouette values are used for assessment of the quality of clustering. The results indicate that the clustering structures of denoised data are more reasonable, implying that genes have tighter association with their clusters. Furthermore we found that the estimation of the fuzzy parameter m, which is a difficult step, can be avoided to some extent by analysing denoised microarray data. The second part aims to identify disease-associated genes from DNA microarray data which are generated under different conditions, e.g., patients and normal people. We developed a type-2 fuzzy membership (FM) function for identification of diseaseassociated genes. This approach is applied to diabetes and lung cancer data, and a comparison with the original FM test was carried out. Among the ten best-ranked genes of diabetes identified by the type-2 FM test, seven genes have been confirmed as diabetes-associated genes according to gene description information in Gene Bank and the published literature. An additional gene is further identified. Among the ten best-ranked genes identified in lung cancer data, seven are confirmed that they are associated with lung cancer or its treatment. The type-2 FM-d values are significantly different, which makes the identifications more convincing than the original FM test. The third part of the thesis aims to identify protein complexes in large interaction networks. Identification of protein complexes is crucial to understand the principles of cellular organisation and to predict protein functions. In this part, we proposed a novel method which combines the fuzzy clustering method and interaction probability to identify the overlapping and non-overlapping community structures in PPI networks, then to detect protein complexes in these sub-networks. Our method is based on both the fuzzy relation model and the graph model. We applied the method on several PPI networks and compared with a popular protein complex identification method, the clique percolation method. For the same data, we detected more protein complexes. We also applied our method on two social networks. The results showed our method works well for detecting sub-networks and give a reasonable understanding of these communities.

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The compressed gas industry and government agencies worldwide utilize "adiabatic compression" testing for qualifying high-pressure valves, regulators, and other related flow control equipment for gaseous oxygen service. This test methodology is known by various terms including adiabatic compression testing, gaseous fluid impact testing, pneumatic impact testing, and BAM testing as the most common terms. The test methodology will be described in greater detail throughout this document but in summary it consists of pressurizing a test article (valve, regulator, etc.) with gaseous oxygen within 15 to 20 milliseconds (ms). Because the driven gas1 and the driving gas2 are rapidly compressed to the final test pressure at the inlet of the test article, they are rapidly heated by the sudden increase in pressure to sufficient temperatures (thermal energies) to sometimes result in ignition of the nonmetallic materials (seals and seats) used within the test article. In general, the more rapid the compression process the more "adiabatic" the pressure surge is presumed to be and the more like an isentropic process the pressure surge has been argued to simulate. Generally speaking, adiabatic compression is widely considered the most efficient ignition mechanism for directly kindling a nonmetallic material in gaseous oxygen and has been implicated in many fire investigations. Because of the ease of ignition of many nonmetallic materials by this heating mechanism, many industry standards prescribe this testing. However, the results between various laboratories conducting the testing have not always been consistent. Research into the test method indicated that the thermal profile achieved (i.e., temperature/time history of the gas) during adiabatic compression testing as required by the prevailing industry standards has not been fully modeled or empirically verified, although attempts have been made. This research evaluated the following questions: 1) Can the rapid compression process required by the industry standards be thermodynamically and fluid dynamically modeled so that predictions of the thermal profiles be made, 2) Can the thermal profiles produced by the rapid compression process be measured in order to validate the thermodynamic and fluid dynamic models; and, estimate the severity of the test, and, 3) Can controlling parameters be recommended so that new guidelines may be established for the industry standards to resolve inconsistencies between various test laboratories conducting tests according to the present standards?

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We describe the population pharmacokinetics of an acepromazine (ACP) metabolite (2-(1-hydroxyethyl)promazine) (HEPS) in horses for the estimation of likely detection times in plasma and urine. Acepromazine (30 mg) was administered to 12 horses, and blood and urine samples were taken at frequent intervals for chemical analysis. A Bayesian hierarchical model was fitted to describe concentration-time data and cumulative urine amounts for HEPS. The metabolite HEPS was modelled separately from the parent ACP as the half-life of the parent was considerably less than that of the metabolite. The clearance ($Cl/F_{PM}$) and volume of distribution ($V/F_{PM}$), scaled by the fraction of parent converted to metabolite, were estimated as 769 L/h and 6874 L, respectively. For a typical horse in the study, after receiving 30 mg of ACP, the upper limit of the detection time was 35 hours in plasma and 100 hours in urine, assuming an arbitrary limit of detection of 1 $\mu$g/L, and a small ($\approx 0.01$) probability of detection. The model derived allowed the probability of detection to be estimated at the population level. This analysis was conducted on data collected from only 12 horses, but we assume that this is representative of the wider population.

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This paper is about planning paths from overhead imagery, the novelty of which is taking explicit account of uncertainty in terrain classification and spatial variation in terrain cost. The image is first classified using a multi-class Gaussian Process Classifier which provides probabilities of class membership at each location in the image. The probability of class membership at a particular grid location is then combined with a terrain cost evaluated at that location using a spatial Gaussian process. The resulting cost function is, in turn, passed to a planner. This allows both the uncertainty in terrain classification and spatial variations in terrain costs to be incorporated into the planned path. Because the cost of traversing a grid cell is now a probability density rather than a single scalar value, we can produce not only the most-likely shortest path between points on the map, but also sample from the cost map to produce a distribution of paths between the points. Results are shown in the form of planned paths over aerial maps, these paths are shown to vary in response to local variations in terrain cost.

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Previous research has shown resistance to extinction of fear conditioned to racial out-group faces, suggesting that these stimuli may be subject to prepared fear learning. The current study replicated and extended previous research by using a different racial out-group, and testing the prediction that prepared fear learning is unaffected by verbal instructions. Four groups of Caucasian participants were trained with male in-group (Caucasian) or out-group (Chinese) faces as conditional stimuli; one paired with an electro-tactile shock (CS+) and one presented alone (CS). Before extinction, half the participants were instructed that no more shocks would be presented. Fear conditioning, indexed by larger electrodermal responses to, and blink startle modulation during the CS+, occurred during acquisition in all groups. Resistance to extinction of fear learning was found only in the racial out-group, no instruction condition. Fear conditioned to a racial out-group face was reduced following verbal instructions, contrary to predictions for the nature of prepared fear learning.

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The current research assessed the effects of verbal instruction on affective and expectancy learning during repeated contingency reversals (Experiment 1 and during extinction (Experiment 2) in a picture–picture paradigm. Affective and expectancy learning displayed contingency reversal and extinction, but changes were slower for affective learning. Instructions facilitated reversal and extinction of expectancy learning but did not impact on affective learning. These findings suggest a differential susceptibility of affective and expectancy learning to verbal instruction and question previous reports that verbal instructions can accelerate the extinction of non-prepared fear learning in humans.