Fit for planning? An evaluation of the application of development viability appraisal models in the UK planning system

The aim of this paper is to critically examine the application of development appraisal to viability assessment in the planning system. This evaluation is of development appraisal models in general and also their use in particular applications associated with estimating planning obligation capacity. The paper is organised into four themes: · The context and conceptual basis for development viability appraisal · A review of development viability appraisal methods · A discussion of selected key inputs into a development viability appraisal · A discussion of the applications of development viability appraisals in the planning system It is assumed that readers are familiar with the basic models and information needs of development viability appraisal rather than at the cutting edge of practice and/or academe

Mid-term evaluation of African Technology Policy Studies Network Phase VI Strategic Plan: for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010

The African Technology Policy Studies Network (ATPS) is a multidisciplinary network of researchers, private sector actors, policymakers and civil society. ATPS has the vision to become the leading international centre of excellence and reference in science, technology and innovation (STI) systems research, training and capacity building, communication and sensitization, knowledge brokerage, policy advocacy and outreach in Africa. It has a Regional Secretariat in Nairobi Kenya, and operates through national chapters in 29 countries (including 27 in Africa and two Chapters in the United Kingdom and USA for Africans in the Diaspora) with an expansion plan to cover the entire continent by 2015. The ATPS Phase VI Strategic Plan aims to improve the understanding and functioning of STI processes and systems to strengthen the learning capacity, social responses, and governance of STI for addressing Africa's development challenges, with a specific focus on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A team of external evaluators carried out a midterm review to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the implementation of the Strategic Plan for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010. The evaluation methodology involved multiple quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the qualitative and quantitative inputs (human resources, financial resources, time, etc.) into ATPS activities (both thematic and facilitative) and their tangible and intangible outputs, outcomes and impacts. Methods included a questionnaire survey of ATPS members and stakeholders, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions (FGDs) with members in six countries. Effectiveness of Programmes Under all six strategic goals, very good progress has been made towards planned outputs and outcomes. This is evidenced by key performance indicators (KPIs) generated from desk review, ratings from the survey respondents, and the themes that run through the FGDs. Institutional and Programme Cost Effectiveness Institutional Effectiveness: assessment of institutional effectiveness suggests that adequate management frameworks are in place and are being used effectively and transparently. Also technical and financial accounting mechanisms are being followed in accordance with grant agreements and with global good practice. This is evidenced by KPIs generated from desk review. Programme Cost Effectiveness: assessment of cost-effectiveness of execution of programmes shows that organisational structure is efficient, delivering high quality, relevant research at relatively low cost by international standards. The evidence includes KPIs from desk review: administrative costs to programme cost ratio has fallen steadily, to around 10%; average size of research grants is modest, without compromising quality. There is high level of pro bono input by ATPS members. ATPS Programmes Strategic Evaluation ATPS research and STI related activities are indeed unique and well aligned with STI issues and needs facing Africa and globally. The multi-disciplinary and trans-boundary nature of the research activities are creating a unique group of research scientists. The ATPS approach to research and STI issues is paving the way for the so called Third Generation University (3GU). Understanding this unique positioning, an increasing number of international multilateral agencies are seeking partnership with ATPS. ATPS is seeing an increasing level of funding commitments by Donor Partners. Recommendations for ATPS Continued Growth and Effectiveness On-going reform of ATPS administrative structure to continue The on-going reforms that have taken place within the Board, Regional Secretariat, and at the National Chapter coordination levels are welcomed. Such reform should continue until fully functional corporate governance policy and practices are fully established and implemented across the ATPS governance structures. This will further strengthen ATPS to achieve the vision of being the leading STI policy brokerage organization in Africa. Although training in corporate governance has been carried out for all sectors of ATPS leadership structure in recent time, there is some evidence that these systems have not yet been fully implemented effectively within all the governance structures of the organization, especially at the Board and National chapter levels. Future training should emphasize practical application with exercises relevant to ATPS leadership structure from the Board to the National Chapter levels. Training on Transformational Leadership - Leading a Change Though a subject of intense debate amongst economists and social scientists, it is generally agreed that cultural mindsets and attitudes could enhance and/or hinder organizational progress. ATPS’s vision demands transformational leadership skills amongst its leaders from the Board members to the National Chapter Coordinators. To lead such a change, ATPS leaders must understand and avoid personal and cultural mindsets and value systems that hinder change, while embracing those that enhance it. It requires deliberate assessment of cultural, behavioural patterns that could hinder progress and the willingness to be recast into cultural and personal habits that make for progress. Improvement of relationship amongst the Board, Secretariat, and National Chapters A large number of ATPS members and stakeholders feel they do not have effective communications and/or access to Board, National Chapter Coordinators and Regional Secretariat activities. Effort should be made to improve the implementation of ATPS communication strategy to improve on information flows amongst the ATPS management and the members. The results of the survey and the FGDs suggest that progress has been made during the past two years in this direction, but more could be done to ensure effective flow of pertinent information to members following ATPS communications channels. Strategies for Increased Funding for National Chapters There is a big gap between the fundraising skills of the Regional Secretariat and those of the National Coordinators. In some cases, funds successfully raised by the Secretariat and disbursed to national chapters were not followed up with timely progress and financial reports by some national chapters. Adequate training in relevant skills required for effective interactions with STI key policy players should be conducted regularly for National Chapter coordinators and ATPS members. The ongoing training in grant writing should continue and be made continent-wide if funding permits. Funding of National Chapters should be strategic such that capacity in a specific area of research is built which, with time, will not only lead to a strong research capacity in that area, but also strengthen academic programmes. For example, a strong climate change programme is emerging at University of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN), with strong collaborations with Universities from neighbouring States. Strategies to Increase National Government buy-in and support for STI Translating STI research outcomes into policies requires a great deal of emotional intelligence, skills which are often lacking in the first and second generation universities. In the epoch of the science-based or 2GUs, governments were content with universities carrying out scientific research and providing scientific education. Now they desire to see universities as incubators of new science- or technology-based commercial activities, whether by existing firms or start-ups. Hence, governments demand that universities take an active and leading role in the exploitation of their knowledge and they are willing to make funds available to support such activities. Thus, for universities to gain the attention of national leadership they must become centres of excellence and explicit instruments of economic development in the knowledge-based economy. The universities must do this while working collaboratively with government departments, parastatals, and institutions and dedicated research establishments. ATPS should anticipate these shifting changes and devise programmes to assist both government and universities to relate effectively. New administrative structures in member organizations to sustain and manage the emerging STI multidisciplinary teams Second Generation universities (2GUs) tend to focus on pure science and often do not regard the application of their know-how as their task. In contrast, Third Generation Universities (3GUs) objectively stimulate techno-starters – students or academics – to pursue the exploitation or commercialisation of the knowledge they generate. They view this as being equal in importance to the objectives of scientific research and education. Administratively, research in the 2GU era was mainly monodisciplinary and departments were structured along disciplines. The emerging interdisciplinary scientific teams with focus on specific research areas functionally work against the current mono-disciplinary faculty-based, administrative structure of 2GUs. For interdisciplinary teams, the current faculty system is an obstacle. There is a need for new organisational forms for university management that can create responsibilities for the task of know-how exploitation. ATPS must anticipate this and begin to strategize solutions for their member institutions to transition to 3Gus administrative structure, otherwise ATPS growth will plateau, and progress achieved so far may be stunted.

Downscaling from GCM precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods

A precipitation downscaling method is presented using precipitation from a general circulation model (GCM) as predictor. The method extends a previous method from monthly to daily temporal resolution. The simplest form of the method corrects for biases in wet-day frequency and intensity. A more sophisticated variant also takes account of flow-dependent biases in the GCM. The method is flexible and simple to implement. It is proposed here as a correction of GCM output for applications where sophisticated methods are not available, or as a benchmark for the evaluation of other downscaling methods. Applied to output from reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP) in the region of the European Alps, the method is capable of reducing large biases in the precipitation frequency distribution, even for high quantiles. The two variants exhibit similar performances, but the ideal choice of method can depend on the GCM/reanalysis and it is recommended to test the methods in each case. Limitations of the method are found in small areas with unresolved topographic detail that influence higher-order statistics (e.g. high quantiles). When used as benchmark for three regional climate models (RCMs), the corrected reanalysis and the RCMs perform similarly in many regions, but the added value of the latter is evident for high quantiles in some small regions.

Evaluation of empirical mode decomposition for event-related potential analysis

Current methods for estimating event-related potentials (ERPs) assume stationarity of the signal. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is a data-driven decomposition technique that does not assume stationarity. We evaluated an EMD-based method for estimating the ERP. On simulated data, EMD substantially reduced background EEG while retaining the ERP. EMD-denoised single trials also estimated shape, amplitude, and latency of the ERP better than raw single trials. On experimental data, EMD-denoised trials revealed event-related differences between two conditions (condition A and B) more effectively than trials lowpass filtered at 40 Hz. EMD also revealed event-related differences on both condition A and condition B that were clearer and of longer duration than those revealed by low-pass filtering at 40 Hz. Thus, EMD-based denoising is a promising data-driven, nonstationary method for estimating ERPs and should be investigated further.

Probabilistic evaluation of time series models : a comparison of several approaches

Several methods are examined which allow to produce forecasts for time series in the form of probability assignments. The necessary concepts are presented, addressing questions such as how to assess the performance of a probabilistic forecast. A particular class of models, cluster weighted models (CWMs), is given particular attention. CWMs, originally proposed for deterministic forecasts, can be employed for probabilistic forecasting with little modification. Two examples are presented. The first involves estimating the state of (numerically simulated) dynamical systems from noise corrupted measurements, a problem also known as filtering. There is an optimal solution to this problem, called the optimal filter, to which the considered time series models are compared. (The optimal filter requires the dynamical equations to be known.) In the second example, we aim at forecasting the chaotic oscillations of an experimental bronze spring system. Both examples demonstrate that the considered time series models, and especially the CWMs, provide useful probabilistic information about the underlying dynamical relations. In particular, they provide more than just an approximation to the conditional mean.

A comparison of automated keyphrase extraction techniques and of automatic evaluation vs. human evaluation

Keyphrases are added to documents to help identify the areas of interest they contain. However, in a significant proportion of papers author selected keyphrases are not appropriate for the document they accompany: for instance, they can be classificatory rather than explanatory, or they are not updated when the focus of the paper changes. As such, automated methods for improving the use of keyphrases are needed, and various methods have been published. However, each method was evaluated using a different corpus, typically one relevant to the field of study of the method’s authors. This not only makes it difficult to incorporate the useful elements of algorithms in future work, but also makes comparing the results of each method inefficient and ineffective. This paper describes the work undertaken to compare five methods across a common baseline of corpora. The methods chosen were Term Frequency, Inverse Document Frequency, the C-Value, the NC-Value, and a Synonym based approach. These methods were analysed to evaluate performance and quality of results, and to provide a future benchmark. It is shown that Term Frequency and Inverse Document Frequency were the best algorithms, with the Synonym approach following them. Following these findings, a study was undertaken into the value of using human evaluators to judge the outputs. The Synonym method was compared to the original author keyphrases of the Reuters’ News Corpus. The findings show that authors of Reuters’ news articles provide good keyphrases but that more often than not they do not provide any keyphrases.

Description and process evaluation of pharmacists’ interventions in a pharmacist-led information technology-enabled multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial for reducing medication errors in general practice (PINCER trial)

Objective To undertake a process evaluation of pharmacists' recommendations arising in the context of a complex IT-enabled pharmacist-delivered randomised controlled trial (PINCER trial) to reduce the risk of hazardous medicines management in general practices. Methods PINCER pharmacists manually recorded patients’ demographics, details of interventions recommended, actions undertaken by practice staff and time taken to manage individual cases of hazardous medicines management. Data were coded and double entered into SPSS v15, and then summarised using percentages for categorical data (with 95% CI) and, as appropriate, means (SD) or medians (IQR) for continuous data. Key findings Pharmacists spent a median of 20 minutes (IQR 10, 30) reviewing medical records, recommending interventions and completing actions in each case of hazardous medicines management. Pharmacists judged 72% (95%CI 70, 74) (1463/2026) of cases of hazardous medicines management to be clinically relevant. Pharmacists recommended 2105 interventions in 74% (95%CI 73, 76) (1516/2038) of cases and 1685 actions were taken in 61% (95%CI 59, 63) (1246/2038) of cases; 66% (95%CI 64, 68) (1383/2105) of interventions recommended by pharmacists were completed and 5% (95%CI 4, 6) (104/2105) of recommendations were accepted by general practitioners (GPs), but not completed at the end of the pharmacists’ placement; the remaining recommendations were rejected or considered not relevant by GPs. Conclusions The outcome measures were used to target pharmacist activity in general practice towards patients at risk from hazardous medicines management. Recommendations from trained PINCER pharmacists were found to be broadly acceptable to GPs and led to ameliorative action in the majority of cases. It seems likely that the approach used by the PINCER pharmacists could be employed by other practice pharmacists following appropriate training.

Natural caprine whey oligosaccharides separated by membrane technology and profile evaluation by capillary electrophoresis

The functional food market is growing rapidly and membrane processing offers several advantages over conventional methods for separation, fractionation and recovery of bioactive components. The aim of the present study was to select a process that could be implemented easily on an industrial scale for the isolation of natural lactose-derived oligosaccharides (OS) from caprine whey, enabling the development of functional foods for clinical and infant nutrition. The most efficient process was the combination of a pre-treatment to eliminate proteins and fat, using an ultrafiltration (UF) membrane of 25 kDa molecular weight cut off (MWCO), followed by a tighter UF membrane with 1 kDa MWCO. Circa 90% of the carbohydrates recovered in the final retentate were OS. Capillary electrophoresis was used to evaluate the OS profile in this retentate. The combined membrane-processing system is thus a promising technique for obtaining natural concentrated OS from whey. Powered

The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems

To bridge the gaps between traditional mesoscale modelling and microscale modelling, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in collaboration with other agencies and research groups, has developed an integrated urban modelling system coupled to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model as a community tool to address urban environmental issues. The core of this WRF/urban modelling system consists of the following: (1) three methods with different degrees of freedom to parameterize urban surface processes, ranging from a simple bulk parameterization to a sophisticated multi-layer urban canopy model with an indoor–outdoor exchange sub-model that directly interacts with the atmospheric boundary layer, (2) coupling to fine-scale computational fluid dynamic Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes and Large-Eddy simulation models for transport and dispersion (T&D) applications, (3) procedures to incorporate high-resolution urban land use, building morphology, and anthropogenic heating data using the National Urban Database and Access Portal Tool (NUDAPT), and (4) an urbanized high-resolution land data assimilation system. This paper provides an overview of this modelling system; addresses the daunting challenges of initializing the coupled WRF/urban model and of specifying the potentially vast number of parameters required to execute the WRF/urban model; explores the model sensitivity to these urban parameters; and evaluates the ability of WRF/urban to capture urban heat islands, complex boundary-layer structures aloft, and urban plume T&D for several major metropolitan regions. Recent applications of this modelling system illustrate its promising utility, as a regional climate-modelling tool, to investigate impacts of future urbanization on regional meteorological conditions and on air quality under future climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Problems with binary pattern measures for flood model evaluation

As the calibration and evaluation of flood inundation models are a prerequisite for their successful application, there is a clear need to ensure that the performance measures that quantify how well models match the available observations are fit for purpose. This paper evaluates the binary pattern performance measures that are frequently used to compare flood inundation models with observations of flood extent. This evaluation considers whether these measures are able to calibrate and evaluate model predictions in a credible and consistent way, i.e. identifying the underlying model behaviour for a number of different purposes such as comparing models of floods of different magnitudes or on different catchments. Through theoretical examples, it is shown that the binary pattern measures are not consistent for floods of different sizes, such that for the same vertical error in water level, a model of a flood of large magnitude appears to perform better than a model of a smaller magnitude flood. Further, the commonly used Critical Success Index (usually referred to as F<2 >) is biased in favour of overprediction of the flood extent, and is also biased towards correctly predicting areas of the domain with smaller topographic gradients. Consequently, it is recommended that future studies consider carefully the implications of reporting conclusions using these performance measures. Additionally, future research should consider whether a more robust and consistent analysis could be achieved by using elevation comparison methods instead.

Evaluation of biospheric components in Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled climate–carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to move the field of ESM evaluation away from a "beauty contest" towards the development of useful constraints on model outcomes.

A low-cost wireless temperature sensor: evaluation for use in environmental applications

With a wide range of applications benefiting from dense network air temperature observations but with limitations of costs, existing siting guidelines and risk of damage to sensors, new methods are required to gain a high resolution understanding of the spatio-temporal patterns of urban meteorological phenomena such as the urban heat island or precision farming needs. With the launch of a new generation of low cost sensors it is possible to deploy a network to monitor air temperature at finer spatial resolutions. Here we investigate the Aginova Sentinel Micro (ASM) sensor with a bespoke radiation shield (together < US$150) which can provide secure near-real-time air temperature data to a server utilising existing (or user deployed) Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) networks. This makes it ideally suited for deployment where wireless communications readily exist, notably urban areas. Assessment of the performance of the ASM relative to traceable standards in a water bath and atmospheric chamber show it to have good measurement accuracy with mean errors < ± 0.22 °C between -25 and 30 °C, with a time constant in ambient air of 110 ± 15 s. Subsequent field tests of it within the bespoke shield also had excellent performance (root-mean-square error = 0.13 °C) over a range of meteorological conditions relative to a traceable operational UK Met Office platinum resistance thermometer. These results indicate that the ASM and bespoke shield are more than fit-for-purpose for dense network deployment in urban areas at relatively low cost compared to existing observation techniques.

Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

An evaluation of the theoretical potential and practical opportunity for using greywater for domestic purposes in Ghana

Assessments concerning the effects of climate change, water resource availability and water deprivation in West Africa have not frequently considered the positive contribution to be derived from collecting and reusing water for domestic purposes. Where the originating water is taken from a clean water source and has been used the first time for washing or bathing, this water is commonly called “greywater”. Greywater is a prolific resource that is generated wherever people live. Treated greywater can be used for domestic cleaning, for flushing toilets where appropriate, for washing cars, sometimes for watering kitchen gardens, and for clothes washing prior to rinsing. Therefore, a large theoretical potential exists to increase total water resource availability if greywater were to be widely reused. Locally treated greywater reduces the distribution network requirement, lower construction effort and cost and, wherever possible, minimising the associated carbon footprint. Such locally treated greywater offers significant practical opportunities for increasing the total available water resources at a local level. The reuse of treated greywater is one important action that will help to mitigate the reducing availability of clean water supplies in some areas, and the expected mitigation required in future aligns well with WHO/UNICEF (2012) aspirations. The evaluation of potential opportunities for prioritising greywater systems to support water reuse takes into account the availability of water resources, water use indicators and published estimates in order to understand typical patterns of water demand. The approach supports knowledge acquisition regarding local conditions for enabling capacity building for greywater reuse, the understanding of systems that are most likely to encourage greywater reuse, and practices and future actions to stimulate greywater infrastructure planning, design and implementation. Although reuse might be considered to increase the uncertainty of achieving a specified quality of the water supply, robust methods and technologies are available for local treatment. Resource strategies for greywater reuse have the potential to consistently improve water efficiency and availability in water impoverished and water stressed regions of Ghana and West Africa. Untreated greywater is referred to as “greywater”; treated greywater is referred to as “treated greywater” in this paper.