Análise de contágio a partir do modelo de correlação condicional constante com mudança de regime Markoviana

Nas últimas décadas, a análise dos padrões de propagação internacional de eventos financeiros se tornou o tema de grande parte dos estudos acadêmicos focados em modelos de volatilidade multivariados. Diante deste contexto, objetivo central do presente estudo é avaliar o fenômeno de contágio financeiro entre retornos de índices de Bolsas de Valores de diferentes países a partir de uma abordagem econométrica, apresentada originalmente em Pelletier (2006), sobre a denominação de Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation (RSDC). Tal metodologia envolve a combinação do Modelo de Correlação Condicional Constante (CCC) proposto por Bollerslev (1990) com o Modelo de Mudança de Regime de Markov sugerido por Hamilton e Susmel (1994). Foi feita uma modificação no modelo original RSDC, a introdução do modelo GJR-GARCH formulado em Glosten, Jagannathan e Runkle (1993), na equação das variâncias condicionais individuais das séries para permitir capturar os efeitos assimétricos na volatilidade. A base de dados foi construída com as séries diárias de fechamento dos índices das Bolsas de Valores dos Estados Unidos (SP500), Reino Unido (FTSE100), Brasil (IBOVESPA) e Coréia do Sul (KOSPI) para o período de 02/01/2003 até 20/09/2012. Ao longo do trabalho a metodologia utilizada foi confrontada com outras mais difundidos na literatura, e o modelo RSDC com dois regimes foi definido como o mais apropriado para a amostra selecionada. O conjunto de resultados encontrados fornecem evidências a favor da existência de contágio financeiro entre os mercados dos quatro países considerando a definição de contágio financeiro do Banco Mundial denominada de “muito restritiva”. Tal conclusão deve ser avaliada com cautela considerando a extensa diversidade de definições de contágio existentes na literatura.

Extreme poverty and development: the role of state in the assurance of minimal existence conditions

This paper follows the idea of Amartya Sen, Nobel Prize of economic, about the role of State in the assurance of minimal existence condition, and aim to answer how countries of Latin America (specifically Brazil) and countries of Europe (specifically United Kingdom) deal with the assurance of this minimal existence conditions. According to Amartya Sen’s view, development must be seen as a process of expanding substantive freedoms, such expansion being the primary purpose of each society and the main mean of development. Substantive freedoms can be considered as basic capabilities allocated to individuals whereby they are entitled to be architects of their own lives, providing them conditions to “live as they wish”. These basic capabilities are divided by Amartya Sen in 5 (five) kinds of substantive freedoms, but for this article’s purpose, we will consider just one of this 5 (five) kinds, specifically the Protective Safety capability. Protective Safety capability may be defined as the assurance of basic means of survival for individuals who are in extreme poverty, at risk of starvation or hypothermia, or even impending famine. Among the means available that could be used to avoid such situations are the possibility of supplemental income to the needy, distributing food and clothing to the needy, supply of energy and water, among others. But how countries deal whit this protective safety? Aiming to answer this question, we selected the problem of “fuel poverty” and how Brazil and United Kingdom solve it (if they solve), in order to assess how the solution found impacts development. The analysis and the comparison between these countries will allow an answer to the question proposed.

Differences in the perception of interest representation: a comparision of Brasília and Brussels lobbying activity

The research topic of this paper is focused on the analysis of how trade associations perceive lobbying in Brussels and in Brasília. The analysis will be centered on business associations located in Brasília and Brussels as the two core centers of decision-making and as an attraction for the lobbying practice. The underlying principles behind the comparison between Brussels and Brasilia are two. Firstof all because the European Union and Brazil have maintained diplomatic relations since 1960. Through these relations they have built up close historical, cultural, economic and political ties. Their bilateral political relations culminated in 2007 with the establishment of a Strategic Partnership (EEAS website,n.d.). Over the years, Brazil has become a key interlocutor for the EU and it is the most important market for the EU in Latin America (European Commission, 2007). Taking into account the relations between EU and Brazil, this research could contribute to the reciprocal knowledge about the perception of lobby in the respective systems and the importance of the non-market strategy when conducting business. Second both EU and Brazilian systems have a multi-level governance structure: 28 Member States in the EU and 26 Member States in Brazil; in both systems there are three main institutions targeted by lobbying practice. The objective is to compare how differences in the institutional environments affect the perception and practice of lobbying, where institutions are defined as ‘‘regulative, normative, and cognitive structures and activities that provide stability and meaning to social behavior’’ (Peng et al., 2009). Brussels, the self-proclaimed "Capital of Europe”, is the headquarters of the European Union and has one of the highest concentrations of political power in the world. Four of the seven Institutions of the European Union are based in Brussels: the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council and the European Commission (EU website, n.d.). As the power of the EU institutions has grown, Brussels has become a magnet for lobbyists, with the latest estimates ranging from between 15,000 and 30,000 professionals representing companies, industry sectors, farmers, civil society groups, unions etc. (Burson Marsteller, 2013). Brasília is the capital of Brazil and the seat of government of the Federal District and the three branches of the federal government of Brazilian legislative, executive and judiciary. The 4 city also hosts 124 foreign embassies. The presence of the formal representations of companies and trade associations in Brasília is very limited, but the governmental interests remain there and the professionals dealing with government affairs commute there. In the European Union, Brussels has established a Transparency Register that allows the interactions between the European institutions and citizen’s associations, NGOs, businesses, trade and professional organizations, trade unions and think tanks. The register provides citizens with a direct and single access to information about who is engaged in This process is important for the quality of democracy, and for its capacity to deliver adequate policies, matching activities aimed at influencing the EU decision-making process, which interests are being pursued and what level of resources are invested in these activities (Celgene, n.d). It offers a single code of conduct, binding all organizations and self-employed individuals who accept to “play by the rules” in full respect of ethical principles (EC website, n.d). A complaints and sanctions mechanism ensures the enforcement of the rules and addresses suspected breaches of the code. In Brazil, there is no specific legislation regulating lobbying. The National Congress is currently discussing dozens of bills that address regulation of lobbying and the action of interest groups (De Aragão, 2012), but none of them has been enacted for the moment. This work will focus on class lobbying (Oliveira, 2004), which refers to the performance of the federation of national labour or industrial unions, like CNI (National Industry Confederation) in Brazil and the European Banking Federation (EBF) in Brussels. Their performance aims to influence the Executive and Legislative branches in order to defend the interests of their affiliates. When representing unions and federations, class entities cover a wide range of different and, more often than not, conflicting interests. That is why they are limited to defending the consensual and majority interest of their affiliates (Oliveira, 2004). The basic assumption of this work is that institutions matter (Peng et al, 2009) and that the trade associations and their affiliates, when doing business, have to take into account the institutional and regulatory framework where they do business.

The impact of negative social environmental events on the market value of supply chain partners

The present work analyzes the impact of negative social / environmental events on the market value of supply chain partners. The study offers a contextualized discussion around important concepts which are largely employed on the Operations Management and Management literature in general. Among them, the developments of the literature around supply chains, supply chain management, corporate social responsibility, sustainable development and sustainable supply chain management are particularly addressed, beyond the links they share with competitive advantage. As for the theoretical bases, the study rests on the Stakeholder Theory, on the discussion of the efficient-market hypothesis and on the discussion of the adjustment of stock prices to new information. In face of such literature review negative social / environmental events are then hypothesized as causing negative impact in the market value of supply chain partners. Through the documental analysis of publicly available information around 15 different cases (i.e. 15 events), 82 supply chain partners were identified. Event studies for seven different event windows were conducted on the variation of the stock price of each supply chain partner, valuing the market reaction to the stock price of a firm due to triggering events occurred in another. The results show that, in general, the market value of supply chain partners was not penalized in response to such announcements. In that sense, the hypothesis derived from the literature review is not confirmed. Beyond that, the study also provides a critical description of the 15 cases, identifying the companies that have originated such events and their supply chain partners involved.

Estrutura populacional e aspectos reprodutivos do Octopus insularis Cephalopodas: Octopodidae: implicações para o manejo da pesca de polvo no município de Rio de Fogo-RN

In northeastern Brazil, Octopus insularis is the most commercially important cephalopod species and its capture has been performed for several years by the lobster fishermen in the region. In order to obtain information about the reproductive biology, 1108 specimens were collected between November 2009 and September 2011 in the landings and fish markets of Rio do Fogo (RN). For each specimen the mantle length (CM) and total fresh weight (PT) were recorded. Gonads of 264 males and 295 females were examined macroscopically and histologically to assess sexual maturation and determine reproductive indices. Four reproductive stages were determined for males (immature, maturing, mature and post-mature) and females (immature, early maturing, late maturing and mature). The average of eggs recorded in the female s gonads was 93.820 and 39 was the average of spermatophores found in male Needham s complex. Spermathecae with sperm were found in females with 69 mm CM (immature). Males and females become sexually mature at 64.41 and 98.50 mm of CM, respectively. The weight at sexual maturity was 270 g for males and 630 g for females. The values of the size and weight at sexual maturity found in this study show that males mature at smaller sizes than females. For both sexes the maturation peaks occurred in February and November 2010 and also in September 2011. The periods of maximum reproductive activity lasted about 3 months and it seems to occur every 7 10 months. Only one spent female (stage V) was found and the number of mature females was low. Presumably, mature females migrate to deep waters with complex habitat to protect the offspring, indicating that fishery by snorkeling with maximum depth of 15 meters is not reaches this part of the stock. Finally, it is noticeable the importance of the establishment of management strategies for the exploitation of O. insularis different of the ones used for O. vulgaris, once the species have distinct biological features

Selection of X chromosome of buffaloes sperm with Percoll gradients

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the selection of X chromosome of buffaloes sperm with Percoll gradients. The stock solution of Percoll was prepared in the proportion of 1:11 (1 part of Percoll:11 parts of a solution containing KCl 1M, NaH(2)PO(4) 0.1M, NaCl 1.5M and sodium HEPES 23.8 g/ml). In order to prepare 9 different gradients were added to the stocked Percoll the A solution (glicine-yolk extender) in the following proportions: 90, 80, 72, 65, 57, 49, 34 and 25%. A sample of 0.7 ml of the fresh semen was deposited at 2 ml of Percoll 80% for the sperm wash. The precipitate was put in tube with 0.7 ml of each gradient. Then, the precipitated was washed in TES solution by centrifugation (500xg for 10 minutes), and collected again and diluted in TES solution to be freeze. The presence of the F body in the spermatozoa was observed in 58.7 +/- 5.4% of the control group and in 41.2 +/- 5.4% of the treated group (p<0.01). This result showed an increment of 17.55 of male sperm in the Percoll's group. The reduction of the centrifugation force did not improve the percentage of X sperm.

Acerola: importance, culture conditions, production and biochemical aspects

Origin and importance. Acerola, or Malpighia emarginata D. C., is native to the Caribbean islands, Central America and the Amazonian region. More recently, it has been introduced in subtropical areas (Asia, India and South America). The vitamin C produced by acerola is better absorbed by the human organism than synthetic ascorbic acid. Exportation of acerola crops is a potential alternative source of income in agricultural businesses. In Brazil, the commercial farming of acerola is quite recent. Climatic conditions. Acerola is a rustic plant. It can resist temperatures close to 0 degrees C, but it is well adapted to temperatures around 26 degrees C with rainfall between (1200 and 1600) mm per year. Fruit characteristics. Acerola fruit is drupaceous, whose form can vary from round to conic. When ripe, it can be red, purple or yellow. The fruit weight varies between (3 and 16) g. Maturation. Acerola fruit presents fast metabolic activity and its maturation occurs rapidly. When commercialised in ambient conditions, it requires fast transportation or the use of refrigerated containers to retard its respiration and metabolism partially. Production and productivity. Flowering and fruiting are typically in cycles associated with rain. Usually, they take place in 25-day cycles, up to 8 times per year. The plant can be propagated by cuttings, grafting or seedlings. Harvest. Fruits produced for markets needs to be harvested at its optimal maturation stage. For distant markets, they need to be packed in boxes and piled up in low layers; transportation should be done in refrigerated trucks in relatively high humid conditions. Biochemical constituents. Acerola is the most important natural source of vitamin C [(1000 to 4500) mg.100(-1) g of pulp], but it is also rich in pectin and pectolytic enzymes, carotenoids, plant fibre, vitamin B, thiamin, riboflavin, niacin, proteins and mineral salts. It has also shown active anti-fungal properties. Products and market. Acerola is used in the production of juice, soft drinks, gums and liqueurs. The USA and Europe are great potential markets. In Europe, acerola extracts are used to enrich pear or apple juices. In the USA, they are used in the pharmaceutical industry. Conclusions. The demand for acerola has increased significantly in recent years because of the relevance of vitamin C in human health, coupled with the use of ascorbic acid as an antioxidant in food and feed. Acerola fruit contains other significant components, which are likely to lead to a further increase in its production and trade all over the world.

Structure and absolute configuration of a secolignan from Peperomia blanda

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2008

Includes bibliography

Tracking the fin trade: Genetic stock identification in western Atlantic scalloped hammerhead sharks Sphyrna lewini

Location or stock-specific landing data are necessary to improve management of shark stocks, especially those imperiled by overexploitation as a result of the international shark fin trade. In the current absence of catch monitoring directly at extraction sites, genetic stock identification of fins collected from major market supply chain endpoints offers an overlooked but potentially useful approach for tracing the fins back to their geographical, or stock of, origin. To demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, we used mitochondrial control region (mtCR) sequences to trace the broad geographical origin of 62 Hong Kong market-derived Sphyrna lewini fins. Of these fins 21% were derived from the western Atlantic, where this species is listed as 'Endangered' by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). We also show that S. lewini mtCR sequences are geographically segregated in the western Atlantic (overall ΦST = 0.74, n = 177 sharks), indicating that breeding females either remain close to, or home back to, their natal region for parturition. Mixed stock analysis simulations showed that it is possible to estimate the relative contributions of these mitochondrial stocks to fin mixtures in globally sourced trade hubs. These findings underscore the feasibility of using genetic stock identification to source market-derived shark fins to obtain essential and otherwise unavailable data on exploitation levels, and thus to productively inform stock assessment and management of S. lewini and potentially also of other fished shark species. © Inter-Research 2009.

Summit of the Americas 1994-2009: selected indicators

Includes bibliography

The liberalization of environmental goods and services: overview and implications for Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes Bibliography

Pension reform in Europe in the 90's and lessons for Latin America

Includes bibliography

Growth crises and strategic turnarounds

Includes bibliography