Communication, coordination and efficiency in evolutionary one-population models

We analyze the role of commitment in pre-play communication for ensuringefficient evolutionarily stable outcomes in coordination games. All players are a priori identical as they are drawn from the same population. In games where efficient outcomes can be reached by players coordinating on the same action we find commitment to be necessary to enforce efficiency. In games where efficienct outcomes only result from play of different actions, communication without commitment is most effective although efficiency can no longer be guaranteed. Only when there are many messages then inefficient outcomes are negligible as their basins of attraction become very small.

The efficiency of a carbamazepine-mianserin combination scheme in opiate detoxification.

A recent comparative randomized double-blind study has suggested the utility of a carbamazepine/mianserin combination as a treatment for opiate withdrawal. The aim of the present study was to explore the feasibility and efficiency of this combination under naturalistic conditions. Five hundred and fifty mostly polysubstance abusing patients treated with a standardized scheme combining carbamazepine and mianserin were assessed with regard to deviations to the protocol, used co-medications and retention in treatment.Three hundred and sixty three patients (66.0%) received the carbamazepine/mianserin combination as specified by the standardized protocol. In 350 patients (63.7%) the whole 10 days was completed. The most frequently used p.r.n. medications were for anxiety (47.5%) and insomnia (54.5%).The treatment of opiate withdrawal with a carbamazepine/mianserin combination scheme in an inpatient setting seems to be feasible and applicable with few adaptations to most patients, and may represent an interesting treatment option for multidrug users.

On the performance of small-area estimators: Fixed vs. random area parameters

Most methods for small-area estimation are based on composite estimators derived from design- or model-based methods. A composite estimator is a linear combination of a direct and an indirect estimator with weights that usually depend on unknown parameters which need to be estimated. Although model-based small-area estimators are usually based on random-effects models, the assumption of fixed effects is at face value more appropriate.Model-based estimators are justified by the assumption of random (interchangeable) area effects; in practice, however, areas are not interchangeable. In the present paper we empirically assess the quality of several small-area estimators in the setting in which the area effects are treated as fixed. We consider two settings: one that draws samples from a theoretical population, and another that draws samples from an empirical population of a labor force register maintained by the National Institute of Social Security (NISS) of Catalonia. We distinguish two types of composite estimators: a) those that use weights that involve area specific estimates of bias and variance; and, b) those that use weights that involve a common variance and a common squared bias estimate for all the areas. We assess their precision and discuss alternatives to optimizing composite estimation in applications.

Effects of fructose-containing caloric sweeteners on resting energy expenditure and energy efficiency: a review of human trials.

Epidemiological studies indicate that the consumption of fructose-containing caloric sweeteners (FCCS: mainly sucrose and high-fructose corn syrup) is associated with obesity. The hypothesis that FCCS plays a causal role in the development of obesity however implies that they would impair energy balance to a larger extent than other nutrients, either by increasing food intake, or by decreasing energy expenditure. We therefore reviewed the literature comparing a) diet-induced thermogenesis (DIT) after ingestion of isocaloric FCCS vs glucose meals, and b) basal metabolic rate (BMR) or c) post-prandial energy expenditure after consuming a high FCCS diet for > 3 days vs basal,weight-maintenance low FCCS diet. Nine studies compared the effects of single isocaloric FCCS and glucose meals on DIT; of them, six studies reported that DIT was significantly higher with FCCS than with glucose, 2 reported a non-significant increase with FCCS, and one reported no difference. The higher DIT with fructose than glucose can be explained by the low energy efficiency associated with fructose metabolism. Five studies compared BMR after consumption of a high FCCS vs a low FCCS diet for > 3 days. Four studies reported no change after 4-7 day on a high FCCS diet, and only one study reported a 7% decrease after 12 week on a high FCCS diet. Three studies compared post-prandial EE after consumption of a high FCCS vs a low FCCS diet for > 3 days, and did not report any significant difference. One study compared 24-EE in subjects fed a weight-maintenance diet and hypercaloric diets with 50% excess energy as fructose, sucrose and glucose during 4 days: 24-EE was increased with all 3 hypercaloric diets, but there was no difference between fructose, sucrose and glucose. We conclude that fructose has lower energy efficiency than glucose. Based on available studies, there is presently no hint that dietary FCCS may decrease EE. Larger, well controlled studies are however needed to assess the longer term effects of FCCS on EE.

On the efficiency and sensitivity of a pyramidal classification algorithm

In this paper we propose a Pyramidal Classification Algorithm,which together with an appropriate aggregation index producesan indexed pseudo-hierarchy (in the strict sense) withoutinversions nor crossings. The computer implementation of thealgorithm makes it possible to carry out some simulation testsby Monte Carlo methods in order to study the efficiency andsensitivity of the pyramidal methods of the Maximum, Minimumand UPGMA. The results shown in this paper may help to choosebetween the three classification methods proposed, in order toobtain the classification that best fits the original structureof the population, provided we have an a priori informationconcerning this structure.

How feeding on young and old leaves affects the performance of Ascia monuste orseis (Godart) (Lepidoptera, Pieridae)

In the field, immature individuals of Ascia monuste orseis (Godart), the kale caterpillars, migrate in great proportion to other regions of the host in order to complete their development; there, they find leaves of different ages and are exposed to the nutritional variation of these leaves. The objective of this study was to find out how the change to leaves of different ages affects the A. monuste orseis performance. The experiments were carried out providing one kind of leaf during the three first instars, and afterwards providing leaves of different ages during the fourth and fifth instars, since it is in these two instars that the changing movement prevails in that species. The parameters to measure performance were time of development (both to complete the three first instars and the fourth and fifth instars), ingestion of food, incorporated biomass, digestive indices that evaluated efficiency in food utilization, relative growth and intake rates, percentage of emergence, weight and size of the adults. In general, the caterpillars which were first fed on new leaves presented a better performance, but this study concluded that the A. monuste orseis caterpillars have shown skills to compensate food with lower nutritional value or less abundant in nature.

Cost efficiency in primary care contracting: A stochastic frontier cost function approach

The principal aim of this paper is to estimate a stochastic frontier costfunction and an inefficiency effects model in the analysis of the primaryhealth care services purchased by the public authority and supplied by 180providers in 1996 in Catalonia. The evidence from our sample does not supportthe premise that contracting out has helped improve purchasing costefficiency in primary care. Inefficient purchasing cost was observed in thecomponent of this purchasing cost explicitly included in the contract betweenpurchaser and provider. There are no observable incentives for thecontracted-out primary health care teams to minimise prescription costs, whichare not explicitly included in the present contracting system.

Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrelevance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogeneously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a consequence the overconfidence bias does not aect informational efficiency, price volatility, rational traders expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price infornativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overconfident.

Growth accounting in items of turbulence and death: efficiency, technology, capital accumulation and human capital 1929-1950

We employ a non-parametrical approach to growth accounting (Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA) to disentangle the proximate sources of labour productivity growth in 41 nationsbetween 1929 and 1950 by decomposing productivity growth into four components:technological change; efficiency catch-up (movements towards the production frontier),capital accumulation and human capital accumulation. We show that efficiency catch-upgenerally explains productivity growth, whereas technological change and factoraccumulation were limited and distorted by the effects of war. War clearly hamperedefficiency. Moreover, an unbalanced ratio of human capital to physical capital (a gap to thetechnological leader) was crucial for efficiency catching-up.

iLOGP: A Simple, Robust, and Efficient Description of n-Octanol/Water Partition Coefficient for Drug Design Using the GB/SA Approach.

The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Po/w) is a key physicochemical parameter for drug discovery, design, and development. Here, we present a physics-based approach that shows a strong linear correlation between the computed solvation free energy in implicit solvents and the experimental log Po/w on a cleansed data set of more than 17,500 molecules. After internal validation by five-fold cross-validation and data randomization, the predictive power of the most interesting multiple linear model, based on two GB/SA parameters solely, was tested on two different external sets of molecules. On the Martel druglike test set, the predictive power of the best model (N = 706, r = 0.64, MAE = 1.18, and RMSE = 1.40) is similar to six well-established empirical methods. On the 17-drug test set, our model outperformed all compared empirical methodologies (N = 17, r = 0.94, MAE = 0.38, and RMSE = 0.52). The physical basis of our original GB/SA approach together with its predictive capacity, computational efficiency (1 to 2 s per molecule), and tridimensional molecular graphics capability lay the foundations for a promising predictor, the implicit log P method (iLOGP), to complement the portfolio of drug design tools developed and provided by the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.

Market structure and hospital efficiency: Evaluating potential effects of deregulation in a national health service

In this article we examine the potential effect of market structureon hospital technical efficiency as a measure of performance controlled byownership and regulation. This study is relevant to provide an evaluationof the potential effects of recommended and initiated deregulation policiesin order to promote market reforms in the context of a European NationalHealth Service. Our goal was reached through three main empirical stages.Firstly, using patient origin data from hospitals in the region of Cataloniain 1990, we estimated geographic hospital markets through the Elzinga--Hogartyapproach, based on patient flows. Then we measured the market level ofconcentration using the Herfindahl--Hirschman index. Secondly, technicaland scale efficiency scores for each hospital was obtained specifying aData Envelopment Analysis. According to the data nearly two--thirds of thehospitals operate under the production frontier with an average efficiencyscore of 0.841. Finally, the determinants of the efficiency scores wereinvestigated using a censored regression model. Special attention waspaid to test the hypothesis that there is an efficiency improvement in morecompetitive markets. The results suggest that the number of competitors inthe market contributes positively to technical efficiency and there is someevidence that the differences in efficiency scores are attributed toseveral environmental factors such as ownership, market structure andregulation effects.

GPS analysis of human locomotion: further evidence for long-range correlations in stride-to-stride fluctuations of gait parameters.

During free walking, gait is automatically adjusted to provide optimal mechanical output and minimal energy expenditure; gait parameters, such as cadence, fluctuate from one stride to the next around average values. It was described that this fluctuation exhibited long-range correlations and fractal-like patterns. In addition, it was suggested that these long-range correlations disappeared if the participant followed the beep of metronome to regulate his or her pace. Until now, these fractal fluctuations were only observed for stride interval, because no technique existed to adequately analyze an extended time of free walking. The aim of the present study was to measure walking speed (WS), step frequency (SF) and step length (SL) with high accuracy (<1 cm) satellite positioning method (global positioning system or GPS) in order to detect long-range correlations in the stride-to-stride fluctuations. Eight participants walked 30 min under free and constrained (metronome) conditions. Under free walking conditions, DFA (detrended fluctuation analysis) and surrogate data tests showed that the fluctuation of WS, SL and SF exhibited a fractal pattern (i.e., scaling exponent alpha: 0.5 < alpha < 1) in a large majority of participants (7/8). Under constrained conditions (metronome), SF fluctuations became significantly anti-correlated (alpha < 0.5) in all participants. However, the scaling exponent of SL and WS was not modified. We conclude that, when the walking pace is controlled by an auditory signal, the feedback loop between the planned movement (at supraspinal level) and the sensory inputs induces a continual shifting of SF around the mean (persistent anti-correlation), but with no effect on the fluctuation dynamics of the other parameters (SL, WS).

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Bargaining efficiency and screening: An experimental investigation

This paper investigates whether information about fairness types canbe useful in lowering dispute costs and enhancing bargaining efficiency.An experiment was conducted in which subjects were first screened usinga dictator game, with the allocations chosen used to separate participantsinto two types. Mutually anonymous pairs of subjects then bargained, witha dispute cost structure imposed. Sorting with identification reducesdispute costs; there are also significant differences in bargainingefficiency across pairing types. Information about types is crucial forthese differences and also strongly affects the relative bargainingsuccess of the two types and the hypothetical optimal bargaining strategy.

Pension plan funding and stock market efficiency

The paper argues that the market signifficantly overvalues firms with severely underfunded pension plans. These companies earn lower stock returns than firms with healthier pension plans for at least five years after the first emergence of the underfunding. The low returns are not explained by risk, price momentum, earnings momentum, or accruals. Further, the evidence suggests that investors do not anticipate the impact of the pension liability on future earnings, and they are surprised when the negative implications of underfunding ultimately materialize. Finally, underfunded firms have poor operating performance, and they earn low returns, although they are value companies.