Tidal effects on groundwater dynamics in unconfined aquifers

The variation of seawater level resulting from tidal fluctuations is usually neglected in regional groundwater flow studies. Although the tidal oscillation is damped near the shoreline, there is a quasi-steady-slate rise in the mean water-table position, which may have an influence on regional groundwater flow. In this paper the effects of tidal fluctuations on groundwater hydraulics are investigated using a variably saturated numerical model that includes the effects of a realistic mild beach slope, seepage face and the unsaturated zone. In particular the impact of these factors on the velocity field in the aquifer is assessed. Simulations show that the tidal fluctuation has substantial consequences for the local velocity field in the vicinity of the exit face, which affects the nearshore migration of contaminant in coastal aquifers. An overheight in the water table as a result of the tidal fluctuation is observed anti this has a significant effect on groundwater discharge to the sea when the landward boundary condition is a constant water level. The effect of beach slope is very significant and simplifying the problem by considering a vertical beach face causes serious errors in predicting the water-table position and the groundwater flux. For media with a high effective capillary fringe, the moisture retained above the water table is important in determining the effects of the tidal fluctuations. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A simulation model for analysing patient activity in dermatology

We developed a general model to assess patient activity within the primary and secondary health-care sectors following a dermatology outpatient consultation. Based on observed variables from the UK teledermatology trial, the model showed that up to 11 doctor-patient interactions occurred before a patient was ultimately discharged from care. In a cohort of 1000 patients, the average number of health-care visits was 2.4 (range 1-11). Simulation analysis suggested that the most important parameter affecting the total number of doctor-patient Interactions is patient discharge from care following the initial consultation. This implies that resources should be concentrated in this area. The introduction of teledermatology (either realtime or store and forward) changes the values of the model parameters. The model provides a quantitative tool for planning the future provision of dermatology health-care.

Dynamics of a mesoscopic charge quantum bit under continuous quantum measurement

We present the conditional quantum dynamics of an electron tunneling between two quantum dots subject to a measurement using a low transparency point contact or tunnel junction. The double dot system forms a single qubit and the measurement corresponds to a continuous in time readout of the occupancy of the quantum dot. We illustrate the difference between conditional and unconditional dynamics of the qubit. The conditional dynamics is discussed in two regimes depending on the rate of tunneling through the point contact: quantum jumps, in which individual electron tunneling current events can be distinguished, and a diffusive dynamics in which individual events are ignored, and the time-averaged current is considered as a continuous diffusive variable. We include the effect of inefficient measurement and the influence of the relative phase between the two tunneling amplitudes of the double dot/point contact system.

Reproductive dynamics of endeavour prawns, Metapenaeus endeavouri and M-ensis, in Albatross Bay, Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

The spawning patterns of two penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus endeavouri (Schmitt) and M. ensis (De Haan), were examined from data collected at 45 stations between March 1986 and March 1992. An index of population fecundity based on the abundance, proportion and fecundity of sexually mature females was used as a measure of spawning output of the prawn stock. The population fecundity index for M. ensis was higher than that for M. endeavouri. The monthly population fecundity index for M. endeavouri varied markedly among years, while that for M. ensis was consistent among years. Spawning of M. endeavouri occurred year-round, while that of M. ensis was concentrated mainly in spring (September to November). For M. endeavouri, a minor spawning, derived from a relatively small number of summer spawners, occurred in the 20 to 30 m offshore waters in summer. In early summer (after May), the major spawning group consisted of large females from the winter-spawning cohort, and the spawning area shifted to depths of 30 to 60 m. In winter (July), the major spawning, derived from the winter-spawning cohort, occurred at depths of 20 to 40 m. For M. ensis, the major spawning, derived from the spring-spawning cohort, was observed in depths < 50 m and was concentrated particularly in inshore waters ( 50 m). These results suggest that mature female M. endeavouri and M. ensis move offshore (>40 m) by May and July, respectively, and return to shallow waters (

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient simulation of a Tandem Jackson Network

The two-node tandem Jackson network serves as a convenient reference model for the analysis and testing of different methodologies and techniques in rare event simulation. In this paper we consider a new approach to efficiently estimate the probability that the content of the second buffer exceeds some high level L before it becomes empty, starting from a given state. The approach is based on a Markov additive process representation of the buffer processes, leading to an exponential change of measure to be used in an importance sampling procedure. Unlike changes of measures proposed and studied in recent literature, the one derived here is a function of the content of the first buffer. We prove that when the first buffer is finite, this method yields asymptotically efficient simulation for any set of arrival and service rates. In fact, the relative error is bounded independent of the level L; a new result which is not established for any other known method. When the first buffer is infinite, we propose a natural extension of the exponential change of measure for the finite buffer case. In this case, the relative error is shown to be bounded (independent of L) only when the second server is the bottleneck; a result which is known to hold for some other methods derived through large deviations analysis. When the first server is the bottleneck, experimental results using our method seem to suggest that the relative error is bounded linearly in L.

Simulation of interface states effect on the scanning capacitance microscopy measurement of p-n junctions

A two-dimensional numerical simulation model of interface states in scanning capacitance microscopy (SCM) measurements of p-n junctions is presented-In the model, amphoteric interface states with two transition energies in the Si band gap are represented as fixed charges to account for their behavior in SCM measurements. The interface states are shown to cause a stretch-out-and a parallel shift of the capacitance-voltage characteristics in the depletion. and neutral regions of p-n junctions, respectively. This explains the discrepancy between - the SCM measurement and simulation near p-n junctions, and thus modeling interface states is crucial for SCM dopant profiling of p-n junctions. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Quantum dynamics of spin polarized optoelectronic processes

We study the quantum dynamics of the emission of multimodal polarized light in light emitting devices (LED) due to spin polarized carriers injection. We present the equations for photon number and carrier numbers, and calculate the polarisation degree of the light generated by LED. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of a strongly driven two-component Bose-Einstein condensate

We consider a two-component Bose-Einstein condensate in two spatially localized modes of a double-well potential, with periodic modulation of the tunnel coupling between the two modes. We treat the driven quantum field using a two-mode expansion and define the quantum dynamics in terms of the Floquet Operator for the time periodic Hamiltonian of the system. It has been shown that the corresponding semiclassical mean-field dynamics can exhibit regions of regular and chaotic motion. We show here that the quantum dynamics can exhibit dynamical tunneling between regions of regular motion, centered on fixed points (resonances) of the semiclassical dynamics.

Breeding dynamics of koalas in open woodlands

The spatial and breeding dynamics of koalas in sub-tropical woodlands at Blair Athol in central Queensland were intensively monitored between 1993 and 1998. Genetic relationships among koalas at this locality were studied to determine the breeding dynamics of males, including whether 'resident' or 'transient' males dominate as sires. Males and females were radio-collared and tracked periodically throughout each year of the study. Genotypes from hypervariable microsatellite loci identified uniquely all individuals and were used to analyse parentage as well as to determine population genetic parameters when compared with other regional localities. Koalas at Blair Athol comprise a population in genetic equilibrium. Gene diversity estimates show the population to be similar to other populations found in similar habitat in the region, and estimates of genetic differentiation among four regional populations showed that gene flow conforms to a model of isolation by distance. Analysis of parentage found that both resident and transient males sired about equal numbers of offspring. Familial DNA analysis revealed multiple paternities of successive young in this population. The conclusion from this study is that 'resident' status among males does not confer any advantage for parentage.

Economic and environmental impacts of pollution control in a system of environment and economic interdependence

The importance of the rate of change of the pollution stock in determining the damage to the environment has been an issue of increasing concern in the literature. This paper uses a three-sector (economy, population and environment), non-linear, discrete time, calibrated model to examine pollution control. The model explicitly links economic growth to the health of the environment. The stock of natural resources is affected by the rate of pollution flows, through their impact on the regenerative capacity of the natural resource stock. This can shed useful insights into pollution control strategies, particularly in developing countries where environmental resources are crucial for production in many sectors of the economy. Simulation exercises suggested that, under plausible assumptions, it is possible to reverse undesirable transient dynamics through pollution control expenditure, but this is dependent upon the strategies used for control. The best strategy is to spend money fostering the development of production technologies that reduce pollution rather than spending money dealing with the effects of the pollution flow into the environment. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the importance function in splitting simulation

The splitting method is a simulation technique for the estimation of very small probabilities. In this technique, the sample paths are split into multiple copies, at various stages in the simulation. Of vital importance to the efficiency of the method is the Importance Function (IF). This function governs the placement of the thresholds or surfaces at which the paths are split. We derive a characterisation of the optimal IF and show that for multi-dimensional models the natural choice for the IF is usually not optimal. We also show how nearly optimal splitting surfaces can be derived or simulated using reverse time analysis. Our numerical experiments illustrate that by using the optimal IF, one can obtain a significant improvement in simulation efficiency.

Nutrient dynamics in Queensland savannas: Implications for the sustainability of land clearing for pasture production

Eucalyptus savannas on low nutrient soils are being extensively cleared in Queensland. In this paper we provide background information relevant to understanding nutrient (particularly nitrogen) dynamics in sub/tropical savanna, and review the available evidence relevant to understanding the potential impact of clearing Eucalyptus savanna on nutrient relations. The limited evidence presently available can be used to argue for the extreme positions that: (i) woody vegetation competes with grasses Cor resources. and tree/shrub clearing improves pasture production, (ii) woody vegetation benefits pasture production. At present, the lack of fundamental knowledge about Australian savanna nutrient relations makes accurate predictions about medium- and long-term effects of clearing on nutrient relations in low nutrient savannas difficult. The future of cleared savannas will differ if herbaceous species maintain all functions that woody vegetation has previously held, or if woody species have functions distinct from those of herbaceous vegetation. Research suggests that savanna soils are susceptible to nitrate leaching, and that trees improve the nutrient status of savanna soils in some situations. The nitrogen capital of cleared savanna is at risk if mobile ions are not captured efficiently by the vegetation. and nitrogen input via N-2 fixation from vegetation and microbiotic crusts is reduced. In order to predict clearing effects on savanna nutrient relations, research should be directed to answering (i) how open or closed nutrient cycles are in natural and cleared savanna, (ii) which functions are performed by savanna constituents such as woody and herbaceous vegetation, native and exotic plant species. termites, and microbiotic 7 crusts in relation to nutrient cycles. In the absence of detailed knowledge about savanna functioning, clearing carries the risk of promoting continuous nutrient depiction.