Do options contain information about excess bond returns ?

There is strong empirical evidence that risk premia in long-term interest rates are time-varying. These risk premia critically depend on interest rate volatility, yet existing research has not examined the im- pact of time-varying volatility on excess returns for long-term bonds. To address this issue, we incorporate interest rate option prices, which are very sensitive to interest rate volatility, into a dynamic model for the term structure of interest rates. We estimate three-factor affine term structure models using both swap rates and interest rate cap prices. When we incorporate option prices, the model better captures interest rate volatility and is better able to predict excess returns for long-term swaps over short-term swaps, both in- and out-of-sample. Our results indicate that interest rate options contain valuable infor- mation about risk premia and interest rate dynamics that cannot be extracted from interest rates alone.

Technical change and factor shares

The implications of technical change that directly alters factor shares are examined. Such change can lower the income of some factors of production even when it raises total output, thus offering a possible explanation for episodes of social conflict such as the Luddite uprisings in 19th century England and the recent divergence in the U. S. between wages for skilled and unskilled labor. An explanation also why underdeveloped countries do not adopt the latest technology but continue to use outmoded production methods. Total factor productivity is shown to be a misleading measure of technical progress. Share-altering technical change brings into question the plausibility of a wide class of endogenous growth models.

Reality check for volatility models

Asset allocation decisions and value at risk calculations rely strongly on volatility estimates. Volatility measures such as rolling window, EWMA, GARCH and stochastic volatility are used in practice. GARCH and EWMA type models that incorporate the dynamic structure of volatility and are capable of forecasting future behavior of risk should perform better than constant, rolling window volatility models. For the same asset the model that is the ‘best’ according to some criterion can change from period to period. We use the reality check test∗ to verify if one model out-performs others over a class of re-sampled time-series data. The test is based on re-sampling the data using stationary bootstrapping. For each re-sample we check the ‘best’ model according to two criteria and analyze the distribution of the performance statistics. We compare constant volatility, EWMA and GARCH models using a quadratic utility function and a risk management measurement as comparison criteria. No model consistently out-performs the benchmark.

Factors affecting the technical efficiency of production of the Brazilian banking system : a comparison of four statistical models in the context of data envelopment analysis

This paper uses an output oriented Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) measure of technical efficiency to assess the technical efficiencies of the Brazilian banking system. Four approaches to estimation are compared in order to assess the significance of factors affecting inefficiency. These are nonparametric Analysis of Covariance, maximum likelihood using a family of exponential distributions, maximum likelihood using a family of truncated normal distributions, and the normal Tobit model. The sole focus of the paper is on a combined measure of output and the data analyzed refers to the year 2001. The factors of interest in the analysis and likely to affect efficiency are bank nature (multiple and commercial), bank type (credit, business, bursary and retail), bank size (large, medium, small and micro), bank control (private and public), bank origin (domestic and foreign), and non-performing loans. The latter is a measure of bank risk. All quantitative variables, including non-performing loans, are measured on a per employee basis. The best fits to the data are provided by the exponential family and the nonparametric Analysis of Covariance. The significance of a factor however varies according to the model fit although it can be said that there is some agreements between the best models. A highly significant association in all models fitted is observed only for nonperforming loans. The nonparametric Analysis of Covariance is more consistent with the inefficiency median responses observed for the qualitative factors. The findings of the analysis reinforce the significant association of the level of bank inefficiency, measured by DEA residuals, with the risk of bank failure.

Stochastic discount factor bounds and rare events: a review

We aim to provide a review of the stochastic discount factor bounds usually applied to diagnose asset pricing models. In particular, we mainly discuss the bounds used to analyze the disaster model of Barro (2006). Our attention is focused in this disaster model since the stochastic discount factor bounds that are applied to study the performance of disaster models usually consider the approach of Barro (2006). We first present the entropy bounds that provide a diagnosis of the analyzed disaster model which are the methods of Almeida and Garcia (2012, 2016); Ghosh et al. (2016). Then, we discuss how their results according to the disaster model are related to each other and also present the findings of other methodologies that are similar to these bounds but provide different evidence about the performance of the framework developed by Barro (2006).

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of steeping conditions (sulfur dioxide, lactic acid, and temperature) on starch yield, starch quality, and germ quality from the Intermittent Milling and Dynamic Steeping process (IMDS) for a Brazilian corn hybrid

Effect of lactic acid, SO2, temperature, and their interactions were assessed on the dynamic steeping of a Brazilian dent corn (hybrid XL 606) to determine the ideal relationship among these variables to improve the wet-milling process for starch and corn by-products production. A 2x2x3 factorial experimental design was used with SO2 levels of 0.05 and 0.1% (w/v), lactic acid levels of 0 and 0.5% (v/v), and temperatures of 52, 60, and 68degreesC. Starch yield was used as deciding factor to choose the best treatment. Lactic acid added in the steep solution improved the starch yield by an average of 5.6 percentage points. SO2 was more available to break down the structural protein network at 0.1% than at the 0.05% level. Starch-gluten separation was difficult at 68degreesC. The lactic acid and SO2 concentrations and steeping temperatures for better starch recovery were 0.5, 0.1, and 52degreesC, respectively. The Intermittent Milling and Dynamic Steeping (IMDS) process produced, on average, 1.4% more starch than the conventional 36- hr steeping process. Protein in starch, oil content in germ, and germ damage were used as quality factors. Total steep time can be reduced from 36 hr for conventional wet-milling to 8 hr for the IMDS process.

Association of an insulin-like growth factor 1 gene microsatellite with phenotypic variation and estimated breeding values of growth traits in Canchim cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Short-term temporal changes of bare soil CO2 fluxes after tillage described by first-order decay models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The Yang-Lee edge singularity in spin models on connected and non-connected rings

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Stability analysis of power systems described with detailed models by automatic method

The power system stability analysis is approached taking into explicit account the dynamic performance of generators internal voltages and control devices. The proposed method is not a direct method in the usual sense since conclusion for stability or instability is not exclusively based on energy function considerations but it is automatic since the conclusion is achieved without an analyst intervention. The stability test accounts for the nonconservative nature of the system with control devices such as the automatic voltage regulator (AVR) and automatic generation control (AGC) in contrast with the well-known direct methods. An energy function is derived for the system with machines forth-order model, AVR and AGC and it is used to start the analysis procedure and to point out criticalities. The conclusive analysis itself is made by means of a method based on the definition of a region surrounding the equilibrium point where the system net torque is equilibrium restorative. This region is named positive synchronization region (PSR). Since the definition of the PSR boundaries have no dependence on modelling approximation, the PSR test conduces to reliable results. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the dynamic behaviour of the "click" mechanism in dipteran flight

In this paper, the dynamic behaviour of the "click" mechanism is analysed. A more accurate model is used than in the past, in which the limits of movement due to the geometry of the flight mechanism are imposed. Moreover, the effects of different damping models are investigated. In previous work, the damping model was assumed to be of the linear viscous type for simplicity, but it is likely that the damping due to drag forces is nonlinear. Accordingly, a model of damping in which the damping force is proportional to the square of the velocity is used, and the results are compared with the simpler model of linear viscous damping. Because of the complexity of the model an analytical approach is not possible so the problem has been cast in terms of non-dimensional variables and solved numerically. The peak kinetic energy of the wing root per energy input in one cycle is chosen to study the effectiveness of the "click" mechanism compared with a linear resonant mechanism. It is shown that, the "click" mechanism has distinct advantages when it is driven below its resonant frequency. When the damping is quadratic, there are some further advantages compared to when the damping is linear and viscous, provided that the amplitude of the excitation force is large enough to avoid the erratic behaviour of the mechanism that occurs for small forces. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plasma concentrations and placental immunostaining of interleukin-10 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha as predictors of alterations in the embryo-fetal organism and the placental development of diabetic rats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Signaling pathways associated with the expression of inflammatory mediators activated during the course of two models of experimental periodontitis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of green Coffea arabica L. seed oil on extracellular matrix components and water-channel expression in in vitro and ex vivo human skin models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)