Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Winter distribution and size structure of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba populations in-shore along the West Antarctic Peninsula

Antarctic krill Euphausia superba are a key component of food webs in the maritime West Antarctic Peninsula, and their life history is tied to the seasonal cycles of sea ice and primary production in the region. Previous work has shown a general in-shore migration of krill in winter in this region; however, the very near-shore has not often been sampled as part of these surveys. We investigated distribution, abundance, and size structure of krill in 3 fjordic bays along the peninsula, and in the adjacent Gerlache Strait area using vertically stratified MOCNESS net tows and ADCP acoustic biomass estimates. Krill abundance was high within bays, with net estimated densities exceeding 60 krill m-3, while acoustic estimates were an order of magnitude higher. Krill within bays were larger than krill in the Gerlache Strait. Within bays, krill aggregations were observed near the seafloor during the day with aggregations extending to the sediment interface, and exhibited diel vertical migration higher into the water column at night. We suggest these high winter krill abundances within fjords are indicative of an active seasonal migration by krill in the peninsula region. Potential drivers for such a migration include reduced advective losses and costs, and availability of sediment food resources within fjords. Seasonally near-shore krill may also affect stock and recruitment assessments and may have implications for managing the krill fishery in this area.

Winter distribution and size structure of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba populations in-shore along the West Antarctic Peninsula

Antarctic krill Euphausia superba are a key component of food webs in the maritime West Antarctic Peninsula, and their life history is tied to the seasonal cycles of sea ice and primary production in the region. Previous work has shown a general in-shore migration of krill in winter in this region; however, the very near-shore has not often been sampled as part of these surveys. We investigated distribution, abundance, and size structure of krill in 3 fjordic bays along the peninsula, and in the adjacent Gerlache Strait area using vertically stratified MOCNESS net tows and ADCP acoustic biomass estimates. Krill abundance was high within bays, with net estimated densities exceeding 60 krill m-3, while acoustic estimates were an order of magnitude higher. Krill within bays were larger than krill in the Gerlache Strait. Within bays, krill aggregations were observed near the seafloor during the day with aggregations extending to the sediment interface, and exhibited diel vertical migration higher into the water column at night. We suggest these high winter krill abundances within fjords are indicative of an active seasonal migration by krill in the peninsula region. Potential drivers for such a migration include reduced advective losses and costs, and availability of sediment food resources within fjords. Seasonally near-shore krill may also affect stock and recruitment assessments and may have implications for managing the krill fishery in this area.

Air Temperature Distribution and Energy-balance Modelling of a Debris-covered Glacier

Near-surface air temperature is an important determinant of the surface energy balance of glaciers and is often represented by a constant linear temperature gradients (TGs) in models. Spatiotemporal variability in 2 m air temperature was measured across the debris-covered Miage Glacier, Italy, over an 89 d period during the 2014 ablation season using a network of 19 stations. Air temperature was found to be strongly dependent upon elevation for most stations, even under varying meteorological conditions and at different times of day, and its spatial variability was well explained by a locally derived mean linear TG (MG–TG) of −0.0088°C m−1. However, local temperature depressions occurred over areas of very thin or patchy debris cover. The MG–TG, together with other air TGs, extrapolated from both on- and off-glacier sites, were applied in a distributed energy-balance model. Compared with piecewise air temperature extrapolation from all on-glacier stations, modelled ablation, using the MG–TG, increased by <1%, increasing to >4% using the environmental ‘lapse rate’. Ice melt under thick debris was relatively insensitive to air temperature, while the effects of different temperature extrapolation methods were strongest at high elevation sites of thin and patchy debris cover.

The Distribution and Quality of Hine's Emerald Dragonfly Habitat in Relation to Surface and Groundwater Dynamics in the Lockport Prairie Preserve Preliminary Report (February 1, 2001-January 31, 2002)

INHS Technical Report prepared for Corporation for Openlands, US Fish and Wildlife Service

Influence of Food Distribution and Human Disturbance on the Reproductive Success of Herring Gulls

A three year study of Herring Gull (Larus argentatus) reproductive success on four i~lands in Maine indicate.d that production of young was controlled by different factors operating on the eggs and chicks. Hatching success was inversely related to the disturbance of co.Ionics by pic~i~kers, which apparently caused the adults to leave their eggs exposed 10 sufficient solar rad1a11on to addle the eggs. The survival of chicks was lower on islands distant ~rom sources of edible r~~use (ou.ter. islands) than o.n. islands close to sources of waste (inner islands), regardless of visits by picnickers. The nutrition and growth rates of chicks on inner and outer islands were similar. The attendance of parents on the territories was found to be less o~ an out~r islan~ than on an inner island. It is concluded that differences in parental behavior associated with greater foraging effort were responsible for a higher loss of chicks to predation on the outer islands.

Pasture production and composition response after killing Eucalypt trees with herbicides in central Queensland

Clearing woodlands is practised world-wide to increase crop and livestock production, but can result in unintended consequences including woody regrowth and land degradation. The pasture response of 2 eucalypt woodlands in the central Queensland rangelands to killing trees with herbicides, in the presence or absence of grazing and regular spring burning, was recorded over 7 or 8 years to determine the long-term sustainability of these common practices. Herbage mass and species composition plus tree dynamics were monitored in 2 replicated experiments at each site. For 8 years following herbicide application, killing Eucalyptus populnea F. Muell. (poplar box) trees resulted in a doubling of native pasture herbage mass from that of the pre-existing woodland, with a tree basal area of 8.7 m2 ha-1. Conversely, over 7 years with a similar range of seasons, killing E. melanophloia F. Muell. (silver-leaved ironbark) trees of a similar tree basal area had little impact on herbage mass grown or on pasture composition for the first 4 years before production then increased. Few consistent changes in pasture composition were recorded after killing the trees, although there was an increase in the desirable grasses Dichanthium sericeum (R. Br.) A. Camus (Queensland bluegrass) and Themeda triandra Forssk. (kangaroo grass) when grazed conservatively. Excluding grazing allowed more palatable species of the major grasses to enhance their prominence, but seasonal conditions still had a major influence on their production in particular years. Pasture crown basal area was significantly higher where trees had been killed, especially in the poplar box woodland. Removing tree competition did not have a major effect on pasture composition that was independent of other management impositions or seasons, and it did not result in a rapid increase in herbage mass in both eucalypt communities. The slow pasture response to tree removal at one site indicates that regional models and economic projections relating to tree clearing require community-specific inputs.

Texture and composition of the Rosa Marina beach sands (Adriatic coast, southern Italy): a sedimentological/ecological approach

Beach sands from the Rosa Marina locality (Adriatic coast, southern Italy) were analysed mainly microscopically in order to trace the source areas of their lithoclastic and bioclastic components. The main cropping out sedimentary units were also studied with the objective to identify the potential source areas of lithoclasts. This allowed to establish how the various rock units contribute to the formation of beach sands. The analysis of the bioclastic components allows to estimate the actual role of organisms regarding the supply of this material to the beach. Identification of taxa that are present in the beach sands as shell fragments or other remains was carried out at the genus or family level. Ecologi- cal investigation of the same beach and the recognition of sub-environments (mainly distinguished on the basis of the nature of the substrate and of the water depth) was the key topic that allowed to establish the actual source areas of bioclasts in the Rosa Marina beach sands. The sedimentological analysis (including a physical study of the beach and the calculation of some statistical parameters concerning the grain-size curves) shows that the Rosa Marina beach is nowadays subject to erosion.

Excitonic behaviour in polymeric semiconductors : the effect of morphology and composition in heterostructures

La compréhension des interrelations entre la microstructure et les processus électroniques dans les polymères semi-conducteurs est d’une importance primordiale pour leur utilisation dans des hétérostructures volumiques. Dans cette thèse de doctorat, deux systémes diffèrents sont étudiés ; chacun de ces systèmes représente une approche diffèrente pour optimiser les matériaux en termes de leur microstructure et de leur capacité à se mettre en ordre au niveau moléculaire. Dans le premier système, j’ai effectué une analyse complète des principes de fonctionnement d’une cellule photovoltaïque hybride à base des nanocristaux d’oxyde de zinc (ZnO) et du poly (3-hexylthiophène) (P3HT) par absorption photoinduite en régime quasi-stationnaire (PIA) et la spectroscopie PIA en pompage modulé dépendant de la fréquence. L’interface entre le donneur (le polymère P3HT) et l’accepteur (les nanoparticules de ZnO), où la génération de charges se produit, joue un rôle important dans la performance des cellules photovoltaïques hybrides. Pour améliorer le mécanisme de génération de charges du P3H: ZnO, il est indispensable de modifier l’interface entre ses constituants. Nous avons démontré que la modification d’interface moléculaire avec cis-bis (4, 40 - dicarboxy-2, 20bipyridine) ruthénium (II) (N3-dye) et a-Sexithiophen-2 yl-phosphonique (6TP) a améliorée le photocourant et la performance dans les cellules P3HT: ZnO. Le 6TP et le N3 s’attachent à l’interface du ZnO, en augmentant ainsi l’aire effective de la surface donneur :accepteur, ce qui contribue à une séparation de charge accrue. De plus, le 6TP et le N3 réduisent la densité de pièges dans le ZnO, ce qui réduit le taux de recombinaison des paires de charges. Dans la deuxième partie, jai introduit une matrice hôte polymérique de polystyréne à masse molaire ulra-élevée, qui se comporte comme un solide pour piéger et protéger une solution de poly [2-méthoxy, 5- (2´-éthyl-hexoxy) -1,4-phénylènevinylène- PPV] (MEHPPV) pour utilisation dans des dispositifs optoèlectroniques quantiques. Des travaux antérieurs ont montré que MEH-PPV en solution subit une transition de conformation, d’une conformation enroulé à haute température (phase bleue) à une conformation de chaîne étendue à basse température (phase rouge). La conformation de la chaîne étendue de la solution MEH-PPV favorise les caractéristiques nécessaires à l’amélioration des dispositifs optoélectroniques quantiques, mais la solution ne peut pas être incorporées dans le dispositif. J’ai démontré que la caractéristique de la phase rouge du MEH-PPV en solution se maintient dans une matrice hôte polymérique de polystyrène transformé de masse molaire très élevée, qui se comporte comme un solide (gel de MEH-PPV/UHMW PS), par le biais de la spectroscopie de photoluminescence (PL) dépendant de la température (de 290K à 80 K). La phase rouge du gel MEH-PPV/UHMW PS se manifeste par des largeurs de raie étroites et une intensité augmentée de la transition 0-0 de la progression vibronique dans le spectre de PL ainsi qu’un petit décalage de Stokes entre la PL et le spectre d’absorption à basse température. Ces approches démontrent que la manipulation de la microstructure et des propriétés électroniques des polymères semi-conducteurs ont un impact direct sur la performance de dispositifs pour leurs développements technologiques continus.

Orthographic regularization in Early Modern English: Grapheme distribution and vowel length indication

The present study is an attempt at assessing the level of consistency in the orthographic systems of selected sixteenth and seventeenth-century printers and at tracing the influence that normative writings could have potentially exerted on them. The approach taken here draws upon the philological tradition of examining and comparing several texts written in the same language, but produced at different times. The study discusses the orthography of the editions of The Schoole of Vertue, a manual of good conduct for children, published between 1557 and 1687. The orthographic variables taken into account fall into two criteria: the distribution and functional load of the selected graphemes and the indication of vowel length.

Distribution and at-sea activity of a nocturnal seabird, the Bulwer's petrel Bulweria bulwerii, during the incubation period

Bulwer'spetrelsarenocturnalseabirdsthatmostlypreyonmesopelagicfauna.Asaerialforagersand shallowdivers,theirfeedingopportunitiesarelimitedbynear-surfaceavailabilityoftheirprey,whichis highlyvariablebothtemporally(reflectingdiurnalandlunarcycles)andspatially.Herewestudiedhow Bulwer'spetrelscopewiththeseconstraintsbyanalysingtheirat-seadistributionandactivityduringthe incubationperiod.Wetrackedthemovementsof20birdsfromSelvagemGrande(NEAtlantic)duringa completelunarcycle,andrecorded30foragingtripsthatlasted11daysonaverage.Birdswereboth distributedaroundthecolonyandinwatersclosetotheAzoreanarchipelago(mid-Atlantic)located 1700kmaway,andweresignificantlymoreactiveatnight(especiallyjustaftersunsetandbeforesunrise), whenmesopelagicfaunaisalsoclosertotheseasurfaceduetotheirdielverticalmigrations.Bulwer's petrelsspentsignificantlymoretime flyingduringmoonlight,althoughtheeffectofthemoonwasrela- tivelyweak(ca.10–15%differencebetweenmoonlitanddarkperiodsofthenight),andnotobviouswhen birdswereforaginginmid-Atlanticwaters,whichwerealsotargetedmoreoftenduringfull-moon.These resultsrevealkeyadaptationsoftheBulwer'spetreltothehighlydynamicecologyofitsmesopelagicprey.

Longitudinal distribution and lateral pattern of megalopal settlement and juvenile recruitment of Carcinus maenas (L.) (Brachyura, Portunidae) in the Mira River Estuary, Portugal

Settlement is a critical process in the life history of crabs, and thus affecting the abundance, distribution and structure of estuarine communities. The spatial pattern of settlement of megalopae of the shore crab Carcinus maenas along a longitudinal estuarine gradient (Mira River Estuary, Portugal) was examined, as well as its effects on the juvenile population. To measure megalopal settlement, four replicate collectors were deployed in six equally spaced stations along the estuarine axis. Juveniles were collected on the same locations with a quadrat randomly deployed on the substrate. To assess fine-scale megalopal settlement within a curved region of the estuary, replicate collectors were deployed on both margins along Moinho da Asneira curve. Megalopae settled differently along the six longitudinal points, with a tendency to attenuate their settlement upstream. Within the curved region, megalopae preferentially settled on the left margin collectors, probably due to the weaker velocity speeds felt on this margin. Concerning the overall juvenile density, there were significant differences among the stations distributed along the estuary, but they did no reflect a longitudinal dispersion attenuation pattern. Size-frequency distribution of the juvenile population showed that the average size is higher on the left margin. Recruits (carapace length between 1.0 mm and 3.4 mm) were more abundant on the upstream stations. Density of early juveniles (3.4 mm-6.5 mm) and juveniles (6.5 mm-10 mm) was more stable throughout the estuary axis than that of recruits. This distribution pattern may result from tidal excursion processes or mechanisms to avoid biotic interactions, such as predation and competition. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Description of a new species of skate of the genus Malacoraja Stehmann, 1970: the first species from the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, with notes on generic monophyly and composition (Chondrichthyes: Rajidae)

O primeiro registro para o Atlântico Sul ocidental de uma espécie do gênero Malacoraja Stehmann, 1970 é feita com base na descrição de Malacoraja obscura, espécie nova, proveniente do talude continental do Sudeste brasileiro dos estados do Espírito Santo e Rio de Janeiro em profundidades de 808-1105 m. A espécie nova é conhecida através de cinco exemplares e é distinta de seus congêneres pela sua coloração dorsal composta por numerosas manchas esbranquiçadas e pequenas na região do disco e nadadeiras pélvicas, por apresentar uma fileira irregular de espinhos ao longo da superfície dorsal mediana da cauda a qual persiste em espécimes maiores (desde a base da cauda até dois-terços do seu comprimento numa fêmea de 680 mm de comprimento total, CT) e uma região pequena desprovida de dentículos na base ventral da cauda (estendendo somente até a margem distal da nadadeira pélvica). Outros caracteres diagnósticos em combinação incluem a ausência de espinhos escapulares em indivíduos maiores, número elevado de fileiras dentárias (64/62 fileiras num macho subadulto de 505 mm de CT e 76/74 numa fêmea de 680 mm de CT) e de vértebras (27-28 Vtr, 68-75 Vprd), coloração ventral do disco uniformemente castanha escura, duas fenestras pós-ventrais na cintura escapular, fenestra pós-ventral posterior grande, forame magno circular e dois forames para a carótida interna na placa basal ventral do neurocrânio. Machos adultos não são conhecidos, porém uma descrição anatômica de M. obscura, sp. nov., é fornecida. Comparações são realizadas com todo o material conhecido de M. kreffti, com a literatura sobre M. senta e com material abundante de M. spinacidermis da África do Sul; M. obscura, sp. nov., assemelha-se mais a M. spinacidermis do Atlântico Sul oriental em esqueleto dérmico, coloração e tamanho. Malacoraja é monofilético devido à sua espinulação e apêndices rostrais conspícuos e é aparentemente composta por dois grupos de espécies, um para M. obscura e M. spinacidermis e outro para M. kreffti e M. senta, porém a elucidação das relações filogenéticas entre as espécies necessita de mais informações anatômicas, principalmente das duas últimas espécies.