Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Peripheral Oxidative Stress Biomarkers in Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer`s Disease

Oxidative stress has been associated with normal aging and Alzheimer`s disease (AD). However, little is known about oxidative stress in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients who present a high risk for developing AD. The aim of this study was to investigate plasma production of the lipid peroxidation marker, malonaldehyde (MDA) and to determine, in erythrocytes, the enzymatic antioxidant activity of catalase, glutathione peroxidase (GPx), glutathione reductase (GR), and glutathione S-transferase (GST) in 33 individuals with MCI, 29 with mild probable AD and 26 healthy aged subjects. GR/GPx activity ratio was calculated to better assess antioxidant defenses. The relationship between oxidative stress and cognitive performance was also evaluated by the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE). AD patients showed higher MDA levels than both MCI and healthy elderly subjects. MCI subjects also exhibited higher MDA levels compared to controls. Catalase and GPx activity were similar in MCI and healthy individuals but higher in AD. GR activity was lower in MCI and AD patients than in healthy aged subjects. Additionally, GR/GPx ratio was higher in healthy aged subjects, intermediate in MCI and lower in AD patients. No differences in GST activity were detected among the groups. MMSE was negatively associated with MDA levels (r = -0.31, p = 0.028) and positively correlated with GR/GPx ratio in AD patients (r = 0.68, p < 0.001). MDA levels were also negatively correlated to GR/GPx ratio (r = -0.31, p = 0.029) in the AD group. These results suggest that high lipid peroxidation and decreased antioxidant defenses may be present early in cognitive disorders.

Influence of education and depressive symptoms on cognitive function in the elderly

Objective: The purpose of the present study was to investigate the influence that education and depression have on the performance of elderly people in neuropsychological tests. Methods: The study was conducted at the Institute of Psychiatry, University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine, Hospital das Clinicas. All of the individuals evaluated were aged 60 or older. The study sample consisted of 59 outpatients with depressive disorders and 51 healthy controls. We stratified the sample by level of education: low = 1-4 years of schooling; high = 5 or more years of schooling. Evaluations consisted of psychiatric assessment, cognitive assessment, laboratory tests and cerebral magnetic resonance imaging. Results: We found that level of education influenced all the measures of cognitive domains investigated (intellectual efficiency, processing speed, attention, executive function and memory) except the Digit Span Forward and Fuld Object Memory Evaluation (immediate and delayed recall), whereas depressive symptoms influenced some measures of memory, attention, executive function and processing speed. Although the combination of a low level of education and depression had a significant negative influence on Stroop Test part B, Trail Making Test part B and Logical Memory (immediate recall), we found no other significant effects of the interaction between level of education and depression. Conclusion: The results of this study underscore the importance of considering the level of education in the analysis of cognitive performance in depressed elderly patients, as well as the relevance of developing new cognitive function tests in which level of education has a reduced impact on the results.

Evaluation of a cognitive behavior therapy program for people with sexual dysfunction

This article reports on an evaluation of a cognitive behavioral program for the treatment of sexual dysfunction. Frequency data are provided on the sexual dysfunction of 95 males (mean age = 41.6 years) and 105 females (mean age = 36.4 years). The effectiveness of a cognitive behavioral program among 45 sexually dysfunctional males (mean age = 39.9 years) and 54 sexually dysfunctional females (mean age = 36.2 years) was assessed. The results demonstrated that, after therapy, respondents experienced lower levels of sexual dysfunction, more positive attitudes toward sex, perceptions that sex was more enjoyable, fewer affected aspects of sexual dysfunction in their relationship, and a lower likelihood of perceiving themselves as a sexual failure. The implications of these findings for the treatment of sexual dysfunction are discussed.

Michael Polanyi, tacit cognitive relativist

Celebrated as a theorist of science, and a source of stimulating ideas for theologians and philosophers of religion, Michael Polanyi explicitly denied cognitive relativism. Yet cognitive relativism, this paper suggests, is implied by Polanyi's account of conceptual frameworks and intellectual controversies.

In 'The Stability of Beliefs' (1952) Polanyi understands conceptual frameworks (science, psychoanalysis, Azande witchcraft, Marxism) as embedded in, and as expressed in the use of, their own languages. The language-with-theory limits the range of discussable subjects, interprets relevant facts in its own terms, permits only certain questions to be asked, with answers to these questions serving to confirm the framework.

In Polanyi's masterwork, Personal Knowledge (1958), these ideas inform his discussion of controversies over scientific frameworks and frameworks vying to become part of science. In each controversy, frameworks are logically disconnected, Polanyi foreshadowing the incommensurability thesis

I argue that Polanyi's ideas satisfy recognised criteria of cognitive relativism. Perception is undetermined by objects and conditioned by language. Empirical propositions, in Polanyi's view, are accepted as true only within a conceptual framework. Polanyi regards supporters of logically disconnected frameworks as thinking differently, living in different worlds, speaking different languages and as experiencing communication failure. There is no framework-independent argument or evidence to distinguish any framework as the best available approximation to the truth. Frameworks are logically disconnected and incommensurable.

The assessment of denial, cognitive distortions and victim empathy among pedophilic sex offenders. An evaluation of the utility of self-report measures.

The modification of denial, defensiveness, and cognitive distortions and the enhancement of victim empathy are central components in the treatment of pedophilic sex offenders (PSOs) and are thus important factors to evaluate. This review of the literature highlights three broad problems with self-report measures of these variables. First, the psychometric properties of measures vary enormously, with some having no established validity or reliability. Second, the purpose of the measure is generally quite transparent, enabling the respondent to easily pick the socially acceptable responses. Finally, it is difficult to determine which are the best measures to use in assessing PSOs. Measures range from those designed for the general public to those designed specifically for PSOs. Also, they range from those that assess broad processes (e.g., general empathy) to those that assess offensespecific variables (e.g., victim empathy). This article argues that these issues need to be addressed to improve both the assessment of these processes among PSOs and the evaluation of treatment programs for PSOs.

An evaluation of self-report measures of cognitive distortions and empathy among Australian sex offenders

The modification of deviant cognitions and the enhancement of victim empathy are central components in many treatment programs for sex offenders. There appear to be three broad problems with self-report measures of these factors: variations in the psychometric evaluation of measures; the transparency of items and thus the likely influence of social desirability; and the difficulty of determining which measures are specific to particular types of sex offenders. The aim of this study was to investigate these three issues among child molesters (CMs), and men convicted of sex offences against adults (ASOs). Data were collected from 36 CMs and 31 ASOs and from two comparison groups (33 men convicted of nonsexual offences and 40 nonoffenders from the community), to assess the reliability (internal and test-retest) and validity (discriminant, construct, and face) of measures, the influence of sexual social desirability on responding and the specificity of measures to both sex offender groups. Collectively, the results raise issues related to the assessment of sex offenders that require further investigation. They also have theoretical implications about the relationship between cognitive and emotive processes among sex offenders.

Habitual visualizer/verbalizer cognitive style: the impact of anxiety and depression

Imagery and verbal cognitive abilities appear to be differentially affected by psychopathology, yet research has failed to consider Paivio's proposition that people have habitual cognitive styles. The aim of this study was to establish habitual cognitive style (verbalizer/visualizer) among depressed, anxious, and control respondents and compare these to their imagery and verbal abilities in the state mode. A comparison of these groups confirmed that there were no differences in preferred habitual cognitive style. In the state mode, the anxious group demonstrated the highest imagery vividness and the depressed group the lowest. Both clinical groups demonstrated attenuated verbal reasoning and high levels of confusion. Within-groups comparison confirmed the attenuation of verbal ability for both clinical groups while the control group remained stable. All three groups demonstrated enhanced state imagery ability over habitual visual preference. This change was greatest for the anxious group followed by the control and then the depressed groups. The therapeutic implications of these findings are discussed .

Maintaining life satisfaction: the role of positive cognitive bias

Recent research into population standards of life satisfaction has revealed a remarkable level of uniformity, with the mean values for Western populations clustering at around three-quarters of the measurement scale maximum. While this seems to suggest the presence of a homeostatic mechanism for life satisfaction, the character of such a hypothetical device is uncertain. This paper proposes that well-being homeostasis is controlled by positive cognitive biases pertaining to the self. Most particular in this regard are the positive biases in relation to self-esteem, control and optimism. Past controversies in relation to this proposition are reviewed and resolved in favour of the proposed mechanism. The empirical data to support this hypothesis are discussed in the context of perceived well-being as an adaptive human attribute.

Cognitive functioning in chronic fatigue syndrome and the role of depression, anxiety and fatigue

Objective: This study was designed to investigate the role of depression, anxiety, and fatigue in Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS) sufferers' objective and subjective cognitive performance. Methods: Twenty-three CFS sufferers and 23 healthy control participants were compared on objective and subjective assessments of cognitive performance. Depression, anxiety, and fatigue were also evaluated. Results: CFS sufferers did not demonstrate any impairment in objective cognitive functioning compared to the control group, and objective performance was not related to their higher levels of depression or their level of fatigue. Depression scores only accounted for a small amount of the variance in CFS sufferers' lower subjective assessment of their cognitive performance compared to control participants. There were no differences between the groups on anxiety scores. Conclusion: The results are discussed in terms of the heterogeneity of the CFS population and the complex interaction of symptomatological factors that characterise CFS.

Cognitive vulnerability and resilience to depressed mood

This study evaluated positive and negative attributional styles, sociotropy, autonomy and optimism as contributors to positive affect and negative affect. The two affect measures respectively separated depression from general psychological distress. Model fit for 168 adult women indicated that each attributional style contributed indirectly to depression via optimism. Further, negative attributional style directly contributed to psychological distress as did sociotropy and autonomy. Results also confirmed an interrelatedness between negative attributional style, sociotropy and autonomy. Discussion addresses interpretation of the model and implications for research.

The effects of improved strength on obstacle negotiation in community-living older adults

Poor mobility has been associated with age-related deterioration in muscle strength. While previous work has examined the effects of improved strength on level walking, we have quantified the effects of a resistance-training program on obstructed gait tasks using biomechanical-dependent measures. Forty-five community-dwelling participants aged 62 years or older were randomised to either a control (n=16) or experimental group (n=29). The experimental subjects exercised for 24 weeks on a progressive resistance-training program designed to improve lower body strength. Dynamic strength was assessed at weeks 0 and 24 as well as specific laboratory gait kinetics and kinematics during stepping over an obstacle and negotiation of a raised surface set at 10, 20 and 30% of each subject's leg length.