Exact and approximate Bayesian inference for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new simulation methodology in order to obtain exact or approximate Bayesian inference for models for low-valued count time series data that have computationally demanding likelihood functions. The algorithm fits within the framework of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) methods. The particle filter requires only model simulations and, in this regard, our approach has connections with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). However, an advantage of using the PMCMC approach in this setting is that simulated data can be matched with data observed one-at-a-time, rather than attempting to match on the full dataset simultaneously or on a low-dimensional non-sufficient summary statistic, which is common practice in ABC. For low-valued count time series data we find that it is often computationally feasible to match simulated data with observed data exactly. Our particle filter maintains $N$ particles by repeating the simulation until $N+1$ exact matches are obtained. Our algorithm creates an unbiased estimate of the likelihood, resulting in exact posterior inferences when included in an MCMC algorithm. In cases where exact matching is computationally prohibitive, a tolerance is introduced as per ABC. A novel aspect of our approach is that we introduce auxiliary variables into our particle filter so that partially observed and/or non-Markovian models can be accommodated. We demonstrate that Bayesian model choice problems can be easily handled in this framework.

Increased plant volatile production affects oviposition, but not larval development, in the moth Helicoverpa armigera

It is well established that herbivorous insects respond to changes in plant odour production, but little attention has been given to whether these responses relate to direct fitness costs of plant volatile production on insect growth and survival. Here, we use transgenic Nicotiana tabacum (tobacco) plants that produce relatively large amounts of the volatile (S)-linalool to study whether the responses of egg-laying herbivorous insects to linalool production relate directly to the growth and survival of offspring. In choice tests, fewer eggs were laid on transgenic plants compared with non-transformed controls, indicating that increased linalool emissions have a deterrent effect on Helicoverpa armigera oviposition. Larval survival and larval mass after feeding on transgenic leaves, however, was comparable to non-transformed controls. (S)-linalool, whether in volatile or sequestered form, does not appear to have a direct effect on offspring fitness in this moth. We discuss how the ecology of this polyphagous moth species may necessitate a high tolerance for certain volatiles and their related non-volatile compounds, and suggest that responses by adult female H. armigera moths towards increased linalool production may be context specific and relate to other indirect effects on fitness.

Generating transgenic banana (cv. Sukali Ndizi) resistant to Fusarium Wilt

Banana is one of the world’s most popular fruit crops and Sukali Ndizi is the most popular dessert banana in the East African region. Like other banana cultivars, Sukali Ndizi is threatened by several constraints, of which the Fusarium wilt disease is the most destructive. Fusarium wilt is caused by a soil-borne fungus, Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense (Foc). No effective control strategy currently exists for this disease and although disease resistance exists in some banana cultivars, introducing resistance into commercial cultivars by conventional breeding is difficult because of low fertility. Considering that conventional breeding generates hybrids with additional undesirable traits, transformation is the most suitable way of introducing resistance in the banana genome. The success of this strategy depends on the availability of genes for genetic transformation. Recently, a novel strategy involving the expression of anti-apoptosis genes in plants was shown to result in resistance against several necrotrophic fungi, including Foc race 1 in banana cultivar Lady Finger. This thesis explores the potential of a plant-codon optimised nematode anti-apoptosis gene (Mced9) to provide resistance against Foc race 1 in dessert banana cultivar Sukali Ndizi. Agrobacterium-mediated transformation was used to transform embryogenic cell suspension of Sukali Ndizi with plant expression vector pYC11, harbouring maize ubiquitin promoter driven Mced9 gene and nptII as a plant selection marker. A total of 42 independently transformed lines were regenerated and characterized. The transgenic lines were multiplied, infected and evaluated for resistance to Foc race 1 in a small pot bioassay. The pathogenicity of the Ugandan Foc race 1 isolate used for infection was pre-determined and the spore concentration was standardised for consistent infection and symptom development. This process involved challenging tissue culture plants of Sukali Ndizi, a Foc race 1 susceptible cultivar and Nakinyika, an East African Highland cultivar known to be resistant to Foc race 1, with Fusarium inoculum and observing external and internal disease symptom development. Rhizome discolouration symptoms were the best indicators of Fusarium wilt with yellowing being an early sign of disease. Three transgenic lines were found to show significantly less disease severities compared to the wild-type control plants after 13 weeks of infection, indicating that Mced9 has the potential to provide tolerance to Fusarium wilt in Sukali Ndizi.

The development of an effective vaccine against Chlamydia : utilisation of a non-toxic mucosal adjuvant to generate a protective mucosal response

Chlamydia is responsible for a wide range of diseases with enormous global economic and health burden. As the majority of chlamydial infections are asymptomatic, a vaccine has greatest potential to reduce infection and disease prevalence. Protective immunity against Chlamydia requires the induction of a mucosal immune response, ideally, at the multiple sites in the body where an infection can be established. Mucosal immunity is most effectively stimulated by targeting vaccination to the epithelium, which is best accomplished by direct vaccine application to mucosal surfaces rather than by injection. The efficacy of needle-free vaccines however is reliant on a powerful adjuvant to overcome mucosal tolerance. As very few adjuvants have proven able to elicit mucosal immunity without harmful side effects, there is a need to develop non-toxic adjuvants or safer ways to administered pre-existing toxic adjuvants. In the present study we investigated the novel non-toxic mucosal adjuvant CTA1-DD. The immunogenicity of CTA1-DD was compared to our "gold-standard" mucosal adjuvant combination of cholera toxin (CT) and cytosine-phosphate-guanosine oligodeoxynucleotide (CpG-ODN). We also utilised different needle-free immunisation routes, intranasal (IN), sublingual (SL) and transcutaneous (TC), to stimulate the induction of immunity at multiple mucosal surfaces in the body where Chlamydia are known to infect. Moreover, administering each adjuvant by different routes may also limit the toxicity of the CT/CpG adjuvant, currently restricted from use in humans. Mice were immunised with either adjuvant together with the chlamydial major outer membrane protein (MOMP) to evaluate vaccine safety and quantify the induction of antigen-specific mucosal immune responses. The level of protection against infection and disease was also assessed in vaccinated animals following a live genital or respiratory tract infectious challenge. The non-toxic CTA1-DD was found to be safe and immunogenic when delivered via the IN route in mice, inducing a comparable mucosal response and level of protective immunity against chlamydial challenge to its toxic CT/CpG counterpart administered by the same route. The utilisation of different routes of immunisation strongly influenced the distribution of antigen-specific responses to distant mucosal surfaces and also abrogated the toxicity of CT/CpG. The CT/CpG-adjuvanted vaccine was safe when administered by the SL and TC routes and conferred partial immunity against infection and pathology in both challenge models. This protection was attributed to the induction of antigen-specific pro-inflammatory cellular responses in the lymph nodes regional to the site of infection and rather than in the spleen. Development of non-toxic adjuvants and effective ways to reduce the side effects of toxic adjuvants has profound implications for vaccine development, particularly against mucosal pathogens like Chlamydia. Interestingly, we also identified two contrasting vaccines in both infection models capable of preventing infection or pathology exclusively. This indicated that the development of pathology following an infection of vaccinated animals was independent of bacterial load and was instead the result of immunopathology, potentially driven by the adaptive immune response generated following immunisation. While both vaccines expressed high levels of interleukin (IL)-17 cytokines, the pathology protected group displayed significantly reduced expression of corresponding IL-17 receptors and hence an inhibition of signalling. This indicated that the balance of IL-17-mediated responses defines the degree of protection against infection and tissue damage generated following vaccination. This study has enabled us to better understand the immune basis of pathology and protection, necessary to design more effective vaccines.

Life-history constraints in grassland plant species : a growth-defence trade-off is the norm

Plant growth can be limited by resource acquisition and defence against consumers, leading to contrasting trade-off possibilities. The competition-defence hypothesis posits a trade-off between competitive ability and defence against enemies (e.g. herbivores and pathogens). The growth-defence hypothesis suggests that strong competitors for nutrients are also defended against enemies, at a cost to growth rate. We tested these hypotheses using observations of 706 plant populations of over 500 species before and following identical fertilisation and fencing treatments at 39 grassland sites worldwide. Strong positive covariance in species responses to both treatments provided support for a growth-defence trade-off: populations that increased with the removal of nutrient limitation (poor competitors) also increased following removal of consumers. This result held globally across 4 years within plant life-history groups and within the majority of individual sites. Thus, a growth-defence trade-off appears to be the norm, and mechanisms maintaining grassland biodiversity may operate within this constraint.

The role of intensity of interval training on fat oxidation and eating behaviour in overweight/obese men

The increasing prevalence of obesity in society has been associated with a number of atherogenic risk factors such as insulin resistance. Aerobic training is often recommended as a strategy to induce weight loss, with a greater impact of high-intensity levels on cardiovascular function and insulin sensitivity, and a greater impact of moderate-intensity levels on fat oxidation. Anaerobic high-intensity (supramaximal) interval training has been advocated to improve cardiovascular function, insulin sensitivity and fat oxidation. However, obese individuals tend to have a lower tolerance of high-intensity exercise due to discomfort. Furthermore, some obese individuals may compensate for the increased energy expenditure by eating more and/or becoming less active. Recently, both moderate- and high-intensity aerobic interval training have been advocated as alternative approaches. However, it is still uncertain as to which approach is more effective in terms of increasing fat oxidation given the issues with levels of fitness and motivation, and compensatory behaviours. Accordingly, the objectives of this thesis were to compare the influence of moderate- and high-intensity interval training on fat oxidation and eating behaviour in overweight/obese men. Two exercise interventions were undertaken by 10-12 overweight/obese men to compare their responses to study variables, including fat oxidation and eating behaviour during moderate- and high-intensity interval training (MIIT and HIIT). The acute training intervention was a methodological study designed to examine the validity of using exercise intensity from the graded exercise test (GXT) - which measured the intensity that elicits maximal fat oxidation (FATmax) - to prescribe interval training during 30-min MIIT. The 30-min MIIT session involved 5-min repetitions of workloads 20% below and 20% above the FATmax. The acute intervention was extended to involve HIIT in a cross-over design to compare the influence of MIIT and HIIT on eating behaviour using subjective appetite sensation and food preference through the liking and wanting test. The HIIT consisted of 15-sec interval training at 85 %VO2peak interspersed by 15-sec unloaded recovery, with a total mechanical work equal to MIIT. The medium term training intervention was a cross-over 4-week (12 sessions) MIIT and HIIT exercise training with a 6-week detraining washout period. The MIIT sessions consisted of 5-min cycling stages at ±20% of mechanical work at 45 %VO2peak, and the HIIT sessions consisted of repetitive 30-sec work at 90 %VO2peak and 30-sec interval rests, during identical exercise sessions of between 30 and 45 mins. Assessments included a constant-load test (45 %VO2peak for 45 mins) followed by 60-min recovery at baseline and the end of 4-week training, to determine fat oxidation rate. Participants’ responses to exercise were measured using blood lactate (BLa), heart rate (HR) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and were measured during the constant-load test and in the first intervention training session of every week during training. Eating behaviour responses were assessed by measuring subjective appetite sensations, liking and wanting and ad libitum energy intake. Results of the acute intervention showed that FATmax is a valid method to estimate VO2 and BLa, but is not valid to estimate HR and RPE in the MIIT session. While the average rate of fat oxidation during 30-min MIIT was comparable with the rate of fat oxidation at FATmax (0.16 ±0.09 and 0.14 ±0.08 g/min, respectively), fat oxidation was significantly higher at minute 25 of MIIT (P≤0.01). In addition, there was no significant difference between MIIT and HIIT in the rate of appetite sensations after exercise, but there was a tendency towards a lower rate of hunger after HIIT. Different intensities of interval exercise also did not affect explicit liking or implicit wanting. Results of the medium-term intervention indicated that current interval training levels did not affect body composition, fasting insulin and fasting glucose. Maximal aerobic capacity significantly increased (P≤0.01) (2.8 and 7.0% after MIIT and HIIT respectively) during GXT, and fat oxidation significantly increased (P≤0.01) (96 and 43% after MIIT and HIIT respectively) during the acute constant-load exercise test. RPE significantly decreased after HIIT greater than MIIT (P≤0.05), and the decrease in BLa was greater during the constant-load test after HIIT than MIIT, but this difference did not reach statistical significance (P=0.09). In addition, following constant-load exercise, exercise-induced hunger and desire to eat decreased after HIIT greater than MIIT but were not significant (p value for desire to eat was 0.07). Exercise-induced liking of high-fat sweet (HFSW) and high-fat non-sweet (HFNS) foods increased after MIIT and decreased after HIIT (p value for HFNS was 0.09). The intervention explained 12.4% of the change in fat intake (p = 0.07). This research is significant in that it confirmed two points in the acute study. While the rate of fat oxidation increased during MIIT, the average rate of fat oxidation during 30-min MIIT was comparable with the rate of fat oxidation at FATmax. In addition, manipulating the intensity of acute interval exercise did not affect appetite sensations and liking and wanting. In the medium-term intervention, constant-load exercise-induced fat oxidation significantly increased after interval training, independent of exercise intensity. In addition, desire to eat, explicit liking for HFNS and fat intake collectively confirmed that MIIT is accompanied by a greater compensation of eating behaviour than HIIT. Findings from this research will assist in developing exercise strategies to provide obese men with various training options. In addition, the finding that overweight/obese men expressed a lower RPE and decreased BLa after HIIT compared with MIIT is contrary to the view that obese individuals may not tolerate high-intensity interval training. Therefore, high-intensity interval training can be advocated among the obese adult male population. Future studies may extend this work by using a longer-term intervention.

The UltraCommuter : a viable and desirable solar-powered commuter vehicle

The University of Queensland UltraCommuter project is the demonstration of an ultra-light weight, low drag, energy efficient and low polluting, electric commuter vehicle equipped with a 2.5m2 on-board solar array. A key goal of the project is to make the vehicle predominantly self-sufficient from solar power for normal driving purposes , so that it does not require charging or refuelling from off-board sources. This paper examines the technical feasibility of the solar-powered commuter vehicle concept, as it applies the UltraCommuter project. A parametric description of a solar-powered commuter vehicle is presented. Real solar insolation data is then used to predict the solar driving range for the UltraCommuter and this is compared to typical urban usage patterns for commuter vehicles in Queensland. A comparative analysis of annual greenhouse gas emissions from the vehicle is also presented. The results show that the UltraCommuter’s on-board solar array can provide substantial supplementation of the energy required for normal driving, powering 90% of annual travel needs for an average QLD passenger vehicle. The vehicle also has excellent potential to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions from the private transport sector, achieving a 98% reduction in CO2 emissions when compared to the average QLD passenger vehicle. Lastly, the vehicle battery pack provides for tolerance to consecutive days of poor weather without resorting to grid charging, giving uninterrupted functionality to the user. These results hold great promise for the technical feasibility of the solar-powered commuter vehicle concept.

Local plastic mechanisms in thin steel plates under in-plane compression

Thin-walled steel plates subjected to in-plane compression develop two types of local plastic mechanism, namely the roof-shaped mechanism and the so-called flip-disc mechanism, but the intriguing question of why two mechanisms should develop was not answered until recently. It was considered that the location of first yield point shifted from the centre of the plate to the midpoint of the longitudinal edge depending on the b/t ratio, imperfection level, and yield stress of steel, which then decided the type of mechanism. This paper has verified this hypothesis using analysis and laboratory experiments. An elastic analysis using Galerkin's method to solve Marguerre's equations was first used to determine the first yield point, based on which the local plastic mechanism/imperfection tolerance tables have been developed which give the type of mechanism as a function of b/t ratio, imperfection level and yield stress of steel. Laboratory experiments of thin-walled columns verified the imperfection tolerance tables and thus indirectly the hypothesis. Elastic and rigid-plastic curves were them used to predict the effect on the ultimate load due to the change of mechanism. A finite element analysis of selected cases also confirmed the results from simple analyses and experiments.

Validating a novel, low cost, automated malnutrition screening system as a predictor of nutritional risk in the Oncology Day Care Unit

Background Cancer-related malnutrition is associated with increased morbidity, poorer tolerance of treatment, decreased quality of life, increased hospital admissions, and increased health care costs (Isenring et al., 2013). This study’s aim was to determine whether a novel, automated screening system was a useful tool for nutrition screening when compared against a full nutrition assessment using the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) tool. Methods A single site, observational, cross-sectional study was conducted in an outpatient oncology day care unit within a Queensland tertiary facility, with three hundred outpatients (51.7% male, mean age 58.6 ± 13.3 years). Eligibility criteria: ≥18 years, receiving anticancer treatment, able to provide written consent. Patients completed the Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST). Nutritional status was assessed using the PG-SGA. Data for the automated screening system was extracted from the pharmacy software program Charm. This included body mass index (BMI) and weight records dating back up to six months. Results The prevalence of malnutrition was 17%. Any weight loss over three to six weeks prior to the most recent weight record as identified by the automated screening system relative to malnutrition resulted in 56.52% sensitivity, 35.43% specificity, 13.68% positive predictive value, 81.82% negative predictive value. MST score 2 or greater was a stronger predictor of nutritional risk relative to PG-SGA classified malnutrition (70.59% sensitivity, 69.48% specificity, 32.14% positive predictive value, 92.02% negative predictive value). Conclusions Both the automated screening system and the MST fell short of the accepted professional standard for sensitivity (80%) or specificity (60%) when compared to the PG-SGA. However, although the MST remains a better predictor of malnutrition in this setting, uptake of this tool in the Oncology Day Care Unit remains challenging.

Phase II study of liarozole in advanced non-small cell lung cancer

The aim of this phase II study was to investigate the efficacy and tolerability of liarozole, a novel benzimidazole derivative, in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Liarozole 300 mg twice daily orally was evaluated in 14 patients with stage IIIB and IV NSCLC. 8 patients had received prior treatment with chemotherapy and/or radiotheraphy. WHO toxocity grading and response criteria were used. Liarozole was well tolerated. Grade 2 toxicities included alopecia (1 patient), dermatological toxicity (5 patients), dry mouth (2 patients) and nausea and vomiting (2 patients). Leukocytosis was seen in 5 patients, including 2 cases with an elevated white cell count pretreatment. Liarozole was discontinued in 1 patient who developed intolerable progressive pruritis associated with an erythematous rash. No objective tumour response was seen, all 14 patients developing progressive disease with 4 months of commencing treatment. Liarozole was well tolerated but was ineffective as single as single agent therapy in the management of NSCLC. The side-effect profile was compatible with inhibition of retinoic acid degradation.

Do employees care about their relative income position? Behavioral evidence focusing on performance in professional team sport

Objective Do employees care about their relative (economic) position in comparison to their co-workers in an organization? And if so, does it raise or lower their performance? While the topic is widely discussed in the literature, behavioral evidence on these important questions is relatively rare. Methods This article explores the pay-performance relationship using a sports data set. The strength of analyzing such data is that sports tournaments take place in a very controlled environment that helps to isolate a relative income effect. Results Using two large unique data sets that cover 26 seasons in basketball and eight seasons in soccer (Bundesliga), we find considerable support for the idea that a relative income disadvantage is correlated with a decrease in individual performance. In addition, there does not seem to be any tolerance for income disparity based on the hope that such differences may signal that better times are ahead. Conclusions This suggests the need to consider the impact of the relative income position when designing pay-for-performance mechanisms within firms and teams.

Exploring the influences of country-level factors on mid-age women’s drink driving attitudes

Drink driving remains a major cause of serious and fatal car crashes in Australia and internationally. While this problem is more prevalent among male drivers, the rates of female intoxicated drivers have increased steadily over the past decades in many motorised countries. A combination of police enforcement, media awareness campaigns, and community initiatives has played a key role in reducing incidents of illegal drink driving by targeting public drink driving attitudes. However, important cultural differences in regards to the tolerance towards drink driving have been noted. While many countries, including Australia, have a legal Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) limit of .05 or higher, some countries have moved towards a zero –or low tolerance approach to drink driving; several European countries, including Sweden, Hungary, Slovakia, and Estonia currently enforce .00 or .02 BAC limits.

Democracy and the Project of Liberal Inclusion

Democracy is a multi-dimensional concept, ranging from definitions based exclusively on institutional frameworks (for example, Held, 2005, Przeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub and Limongi, 2000) to complex and integrated measures that include political and civil rights, democratic practices, values and, finally, a diverse set of institutional arrangements in society, including welfare, education, industrial relations and the legal system (Inglehart and Welzel, 2005, Jaggers and Gurr, 1995, O'Donnell, Cullel and Iazetta, 2004). This reflects the range of and distinction between merely formal electoral democracy and genuinely 'effective liberal democracy' (Inglehart and Welzel, 2005: 149), where democracy is firmly embedded not only in its institutions but in the values of its citizenry. Evidence from cross-national research confirms that formal democratic institutions, different dimensions of effective democracy, and democratic values are indeed strongly linked (Inglehart and Welzel, 2005: 154, Jaggers and Gurr, 1995: 446). Democracy is more than just a set of institutions, rules and mechanisms: it is a set of core values engrained in the 'lived experience' of its citizens. Core values of democracies are individual autonomy and egalitarianism, tolerance of diversity, and freedom from oppression for both individuals and institutions. Democracies restrain their governments by the rule of law and grant its citizens equal access to and equal treatment by legal institutions. Among these institutions, criminal justice and the treatment of those who violated rules and regulations represent sensitive seismographs for the quality of effective democracies, and the ways how democracies realise their core values.

Increase in prevalence of obesity and diabetes and decrease in plasma cholesterol in a central Australian Aboriginal community

Objective: To document change in prevalence of obesity, diabetes and other cardiovascular diease (CVD) risk factors, and trends in dietary macronutrient intake, over an eight-year period in a rural Aboriginal community in central Australia. Design: Sequential cross-sectional community surveys in 1987, 1991 and 1995. Subjects: All adults (15 years and over) in the community were invited to participate. In 1987, 1991 and 1995, 335 (87% of eligible adults), 331 (76%) and 304 (68%), respectively, were surveyed. Main outcome measures: Body mass index and waist : hip ratio; blood glucose level and glucose tolerance; fasting total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and triglyceride levels; and apparent dietary intake (estimated by the store turnover method). Intervention: A community-based nutrition awareness and healthy lifestyle program, 1988-1990. Results: At the eight-year follow-up, the odds ratios (95% CIs) for CVD risk factors relative to baseline were obesity, 1.84 (1.28-2.66); diabetes, 1.83 (1.11-3.03); hypercholesterolaemia, 0.29 (0.20-0.42); and dyslipidaemia (high triglyceride plus low HDL cholesterol level), 4.54 (2.84-7.29). In younger women (15-24 years), there was a trebling in obesity prevalence and a four- to fivefold increase in diabetes prevalence. Store turnover data suggested a relative reduction in the consumption of refined carbohydrates and saturated fats. Conclusion: Interventions targeting nutritional factors alone are unlikely to greatly alter trends towards increasing prevalences of obesity and diabetes. In communities where healthy food choices are limited, the role of regular physical activity in improving metabolic fitness may also need to be emphasised.

Diabetes, hyperinsulinemia, and hyperlipidemia in small aboriginal community in northern Australia

A small rural Aboriginal community in northern Australia was surveyed for diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), hyperinsulinemia, and lipid levels. Of the 122 adults >17 yr of age who participated (95% response rate), 11.5% had diabetes, 7.4% had IGT, and the remaining 81.1% had normal glucose tolerance. Both diabetes and IGT were strongly age related. This high frequency of diabetes occurred, despite the population being relatively lean. Although the body mass index (BMI) increased with age in both men and women, only 25% of the population overall had BMI >25 kg/m2. There were wide ranges of insulin responses to glucose, with the upper fertile of 2-h insulin levels being more than seven times higher than the lower fertile (144 ± 13 vs. 19 ± 1 mLI/L). Hyperinsulinemia was associated with IGT, elevated triglycerides, and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Lipid abnormalities were much more frequent among men than women. Cholesterol levels were an average of 0.55 mM higher and triglycerides an average of 1.05 mM higher in men than in women, and both increased with age. In conclusion, this small isolated Aboriginal population from northern Australia had an unexpectedly high frequency of diabetes (in view of their relative leanness) in association with a high frequency of metabolic abnormalities indicative of insulin resistance (hyperinsulinemia, IGT, hypertriglyceridemia).