969 resultados para bayesian methods
Resumo:
The goal of this study was to demonstrate the usefulness of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the serodiagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and extrapulmonary TB (EPTB). This assay used 20 amino acid-long, non-overlapped synthetic peptides that spanned the complete Mycobacterium tuberculosis ESAT-6 and Ag85A sequences. The validation cohort consisted of 1,102 individuals who were grouped into the following five diagnostic groups: 455 patients with PTB, 60 patients with EPTB, 40 individuals with non-EPTB, 33 individuals with leprosy and 514 healthy controls. For the PTB group, two ESAT-6 peptides (12033 and 12034) had the highest sensitivity levels of 96.9% and 96.2%, respectively, and an Ag85A-peptide (29878) was the most specific (97.4%) in the PTB groups. For the EPTB group, two Ag85A peptides (11005 and 11006) were observed to have a sensitivity of 98.3% and an Ag85A-peptide (29878) was also the most specific (96.4%). When combinations of peptides were used, such as 12033 and 12034 or 11005 and 11006, 99.5% and 100% sensitivities in the PTB and EPTB groups were observed, respectively. In conclusion, for a cohort that consists entirely of individuals from Venezuela, a multi-antigen immunoassay using highly sensitive ESAT-6 and Ag85A peptides alone and in combination could be used to more rapidly diagnose PTB and EPTB infection.
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Schistosomiasis diagnosis is based on the detection of eggs in the faeces, which is laborious and lacks sensitivity, especially for patients with a low parasite burden. Immunological assays for specific antibody detection are available, but they usually demonstrate low sensitivity and/or specificity. In this study, two simple immunological assays were evaluated for the detection of soluble Schistosoma mansoni adult worm preparation (SWAP) and egg-specific IgGs. These studies have not yet been evaluated for patients with low parasite burdens. Residents of an endemic area in Brazil donated sera and faecal samples for our study. The patients were initially diagnosed by a rigorous Kato-Katz analysis of 18 thick smears from four different stool samples. The ELISA-SWAP was successful for human diagnosis with 90% sensitivity and specificity, confirming the Kato-Katz diagnosis with nearly perfect agreement, as seen by the Kappa index (0.85). Although the ELISA-soluble S. mansoni egg antigen was 85% sensitive, it exhibited low specificity (80%; Kappa index: 0.75) and was more susceptible to cross-reactivity. We believe that immunological assays should be used in conjunction with Kato-Katz analysis as a supplementary tool for the diagnosis of schistosomiasis for patients with low infection burdens, which are usually hard to detect.
Resumo:
In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.
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A ubiquitous assessment of swimming velocity (main metric of the performance) is essential for the coach to provide a tailored feedback to the trainee. We present a probabilistic framework for the data-driven estimation of the swimming velocity at every cycle using a low-cost wearable inertial measurement unit (IMU). The statistical validation of the method on 15 swimmers shows that an average relative error of 0.1 ± 9.6% and high correlation with the tethered reference system (rX,Y=0.91 ) is achievable. Besides, a simple tool to analyze the influence of sacrum kinematics on the performance is provided.
Resumo:
Nonimmediate drug hypersensitivity reactions (DHRs) are difficult to manage in daily clinical practice, mainly owing to their heterogeneous clinical manifestations and the lack of selective biological markers. In vitro methods are necessaryto establish a diagnosis, especially given the low sensitivity of skin tests and the inherent risks of drug provocation testing. In vitro evaluation of nonimmediate DHRs must include approaches that can be applied during the different phases of the reaction. During the acute phase, monitoring markers in both skin and peripheral blood helps to discriminate between immediate and nonimmediate DHRs with cutaneous responses and to distinguish between reactions that, although they present similar clinical symptoms, are produced by different immunological mechanisms and therefore have a different treatment and prognosis. During the resolution phase, in vitro testing is used to detect the response of T cells to drug stimulation; however, this approach has certain limitations, such as the lack of validated studies assessing sensitivity. Moreover, in vitro tests indicate an immune response that is not always related to a DHR. In this review, members of the Immunology and Drug Allergy Committee of the Spanish Society of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (SEAIC) provide an overview of the most widely used in vitro tests for evaluating nonimmediate DHRs.
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Background: The literature shows how gender mandates contribute to differences in exposure and vulnerability to certain health risk factors. This paper presents the results of a study developed in the south of Spain, where research aimed at understanding men from a gender perspective is still limited. Objective: The aim of this paper is to explore the lay perceptions and meanings ascribed to the idea of masculinity, identifying ways in which gender displays are related to health. Design: The study is based on a mixed-methods data collection strategy typical of qualitative research. We performed a qualitative content analysis focused on manifest and latent content. Results: Our analysis showed that the relationship between masculinity and health was mainly defined with regard to behavioural explanations with an evident performative meaning. With regard to issues such as driving, the use of recreational drugs, aggressive behaviour, sexuality, and body image, important connections were established between manhood acts and health outcomes. Different ways of understanding and performing the male identity also emerged from the results. The findings revealed the implications of these aspects in the processes of change in the identity codes of men and women. Conclusions: The study provides insights into how the category ‘man’ is highly dependent on collective practices and performative acts. Consideration of how males perform manhood acts might be required in guidance on the development of programmes and policies aimed at addressing gender inequalities in health in a particular local context.
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The polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods for the diagnosis of malaria infection are expected to accurately identify submicroscopic parasite carriers. Although a significant number of PCR protocols have been described, few studies have addressed the performance of PCR amplification in cases of field samples with submicroscopic malaria infection. Here, the reproducibility of two well-established PCR protocols (nested-PCR and real-time PCR for the Plasmodium 18 small subunit rRNA gene) were evaluated in a panel of 34 blood field samples from individuals that are potential reservoirs of malaria infection, but were negative for malaria by optical microscopy. Regardless of the PCR protocol, a large variation between the PCR replicates was observed, leading to alternating positive and negative results in 38% (13 out of 34) of the samples. These findings were quite different from those obtained from the microscopy-positive patients or the unexposed individuals; the diagnosis of these individuals could be confirmed based on the high reproducibility and specificity of the PCR-based protocols. The limitation of PCR amplification was restricted to the field samples with very low levels of parasitaemia because titrations of the DNA templates were able to detect < 3 parasites/µL in the blood. In conclusion, conventional PCR protocols require careful interpretation in cases of submicroscopic malaria infection, as inconsistent and false-negative results can occur.
Resumo:
AIM: This study aims to investigate the clinical and demographic factors influencing gentamicin pharmacokinetics in a large cohort of unselected premature and term newborns and to evaluate optimal regimens in this population. METHODS: All gentamicin concentration data, along with clinical and demographic characteristics, were retrieved from medical charts in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit over 5 years within the frame of a routine therapeutic drug monitoring programme. Data were described using non-linear mixed-effects regression analysis ( nonmem®). RESULTS: A total of 3039 gentamicin concentrations collected in 994 preterm and 455 term newborns were included in the analysis. A two compartment model best characterized gentamicin disposition. The average parameter estimates, for a median body weight of 2170 g, were clearance (CL) 0.089 l h(-1) (CV 28%), central volume of distribution (Vc ) 0.908 l (CV 18%), intercompartmental clearance (Q) 0.157 l h(-1) and peripheral volume of distribution (Vp ) 0.560 l. Body weight, gestational age and post-natal age positively influenced CL. Dopamine co-administration had a significant negative effect on CL, whereas the influence of indomethacin and furosemide was not significant. Both body weight and gestational age significantly influenced Vc . Model-based simulations confirmed that, compared with term neonates, preterm infants need higher doses, superior to 4 mg kg(-1) , at extended intervals to achieve adequate concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study conducted in a large cohort of newborns confirms the importance of body weight and gestational age for dosage adjustment. The model will serve to set up dosing recommendations and elaborate a Bayesian tool for dosage individualization based on concentration monitoring.
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The present study analysed the concordance among four different molecular diagnostic methods for tuberculosis (TB) in pulmonary and blood samples from immunocompromised patients. A total of 165 blood and 194 sputum samples were collected from 181 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients with upper respiratory complaints, regardless of suspicious for TB. The samples were submitted for smear microscopy, culture and molecular tests: a laboratory-developed conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) and the Gen-Probe and Detect-TB Ampligenix kits. The samples were handled blindly by all the technicians involved, from sample processing to results analysis. For sputum, the sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 96.7% for qPCR, 81.8% and 94.5% for Gen-Probe and 100% and 66.3% for Detect-TB, respectively. qPCR presented the best concordance with sputum culture [kappa (k) = 0.864)], followed by Gen-Probe (k = 0.682). For blood samples, qPCR showed 100% sensitivity and 92.3% specificity, with a substantial correlation with sputum culture (k = 0.754) and with the qPCR results obtained from sputum of the corresponding patient (k = 0.630). Conventional PCR demonstrated the worst results for sputa and blood, with a sensitivity of 100% vs. 88.9% and a specificity of 46.3% vs. 32%, respectively. Commercial or laboratory-developed molecular assays can overcome the difficulties in the diagnosis of TB in paucibacillary patients using conventional methods available in most laboratories.
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We construct and analyze non-overlapping Schwarz methods for a preconditioned weakly over-penalized symmetric interior penalty (WOPSIP) method for elliptic problems.
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Carbon isotope ratio of androgens in urine specimens is routinely determined to exclude an abuse of testosterone or testosterone prohormones by athletes. Increasing application of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS) in the last years for target and systematic investigations on samples has resulted in the demand for rapid sample throughput as well as high selectivity in the extraction process particularly in the case of conspicuous samples. For that purpose, we present herein the complimentary use of an SPE-based assay and an HPLC fractionation method as a two-stage strategy for the isolation of testosterone metabolites and endogenous reference compounds prior to GC/C/IRMS analyses. Assays validation demonstrated acceptable performance in terms of intermediate precision (range: 0.1-0.4 per thousand) and Bland-Altman analyses revealed no significant bias (0.2 per thousand). For further validation of this two-stage analyses strategy, all the specimens (n=124) collected during a major sport event were processed.
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This study aimed to evaluate the use of conventional polymerase chain reaction (cPCR) and real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) in the diagnosis of human strongyloidiasis from stool samples in tropical areas. Stool samples were collected from individuals and were determined to be positive for Strongyloides stercoralis (group I), negative for S. stercoralis (group II) and positive for other enteroparasite species (group III). DNA specific to S. stercoralis was found in 76.7% of group I samples by cPCR and in 90% of group I samples by qPCR. The results show that molecular methods can be used as alternative tools for detecting S. stercoralis in human stool samples in tropical areas.
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This paper presents and compares two approaches to estimate the origin (upstream or downstream) of voltage sag registered in distribution substations. The first approach is based on the application of a single rule dealing with features extracted from the impedances during the fault whereas the second method exploit the variability of waveforms from an statistical point of view. Both approaches have been tested with voltage sags registered in distribution substations and advantages, drawbacks and comparative results are presented
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The log-ratio methodology makes available powerful tools for analyzing compositionaldata. Nevertheless, the use of this methodology is only possible for those data setswithout null values. Consequently, in those data sets where the zeros are present, aprevious treatment becomes necessary. Last advances in the treatment of compositionalzeros have been centered especially in the zeros of structural nature and in the roundedzeros. These tools do not contemplate the particular case of count compositional datasets with null values. In this work we deal with \count zeros" and we introduce atreatment based on a mixed Bayesian-multiplicative estimation. We use the Dirichletprobability distribution as a prior and we estimate the posterior probabilities. Then weapply a multiplicative modi¯cation for the non-zero values. We present a case studywhere this new methodology is applied.Key words: count data, multiplicative replacement, composition, log-ratio analysis