Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

Application of power electronics in improving power quality and supply efficiency of AC traction networks

Major advances in power electronics during recent years have prompted considerable interest within the traction community. The capability of new technologies to reduce the AC railway networks' effect on power quality and improve their supply efficiency is expected to significantly decrease the cost of electric rail supply systems. Of particular interest are Static Frequency Converter (SFC), Rail Power Conditioner (RPC), High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) solutions. Substantial impacts on future feasibility of railway electrification are anticipated. Aurizon, Australia's largest heavy haul railway operator, has recently commissioned the world's first 50Hz/50Hz SFC installation and is currently investigating SFC, RPC, HVDC and ESS solutions. This paper presents a summary of current and emerging technologies with a particular focus on the potential techno-economic benefits.

Analysis of differential gene expression based on Bayesian estimation of variance

Gene expression is arguably the most important indicator of biological function. Thus identifying differentially expressed genes is one of the main aims of high throughout studies that use microarray and RNAseq platforms to study deregulated cellular pathways. There are many tools for analysing differentia gene expression from transciptomic datasets. The major challenge of this topic is to estimate gene expression variance due to the high amount of ‘background noise’ that is generated from biological equipment and the lack of biological replicates. Bayesian inference has been widely used in the bioinformatics field. In this work, we reveal that the prior knowledge employed in the Bayesian framework also helps to improve the accuracy of differential gene expression analysis when using a small number of replicates. We have developed a differential analysis tool that uses Bayesian estimation of the variance of gene expression for use with small numbers of biological replicates. Our method is more consistent when compared to the widely used cyber-t tool that successfully introduced the Bayesian framework to differential analysis. We also provide a user-friendly web based Graphic User Interface for biologists to use with microarray and RNAseq data. Bayesian inference can compensate for the instability of variance caused when using a small number of biological replicates by using pseudo replicates as prior knowledge. We also show that our new strategy to select pseudo replicates will improve the performance of the analysis. - See more at: http://www.eurekaselect.com/node/138761/article#sthash.VeK9xl5k.dpuf

Leveraging coherent distributed space-time codes for noncoherent communication in relay networks via training

For point to point multiple input multiple output systems, Dayal-Brehler-Varanasi have proved that training codes achieve the same diversity order as that of the underlying coherent space time block code (STBC) if a simple minimum mean squared error estimate of the channel formed using the training part is employed for coherent detection of the underlying STBC. In this letter, a similar strategy involving a combination of training, channel estimation and detection in conjunction with existing coherent distributed STBCs is proposed for noncoherent communication in Amplify-and-Forward (AF) relay networks. Simulation results show that the proposed simple strategy outperforms distributed differential space-time coding for AF relay networks. Finally, the proposed strategy is extended to asynchronous relay networks using orthogonal frequency division multiplexing.

Spatio-temporal modelling of cancer data in Queensland using Bayesian methods

Cancer is the leading contributor to the disease burden in Australia. This thesis develops and applies Bayesian hierarchical models to facilitate an investigation of the spatial and temporal associations for cancer diagnosis and survival among Queenslanders. The key objectives are to document and quantify the importance of spatial inequalities, explore factors influencing these inequalities, and investigate how spatial inequalities change over time. Existing Bayesian hierarchical models are refined, new models and methods developed, and tangible benefits obtained for cancer patients in Queensland. The versatility of using Bayesian models in cancer control are clearly demonstrated through these detailed and comprehensive analyses.

Covalently bonded networks through surface-confined polymerization

The prospect of synthesizing ordered, covalently bonded structures directly on a surface has recently attracted considerable attention due to its fundamental interest and for potential applications in electronics and photonics. This prospective article focuses on efforts to synthesize and characterize epitaxial one- and two-dimensional (1D and 2D, respectively) polymeric networks on single crystal surfaces. Recent studies, mostly performed using scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), demonstrate the ability to induce polymerization based on Ullmann coupling, thermal dehalogenation and dehydration reactions. The 2D polymer networks synthesized to date have exhibited structural limitations and have been shown to form only small domains on the surface. We discuss different approaches to control 1D and 2D polymerization, with particular emphasis on the surface phenomena that are critical to the formation of larger ordered domains.

Compositional agent-based models for electricity distribution networks

This thesis presents a novel approach to building large-scale agent-based models of networked physical systems using a compositional approach to provide extensibility and flexibility in building the models and simulations. A software framework (MODAM - MODular Agent-based Model) was implemented for this purpose, and validated through simulations. These simulations allow assessment of the impact of technological change on the electricity distribution network looking at the trajectories of electricity consumption at key locations over many years.

Implementation of Art1 and Art2 Artificial Neural Networks on Ring and Mesh Architectures

The Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are being used to solve a variety of problems in pattern recognition, robotic control, VLSI CAD and other areas. In most of these applications, a speedy response from the ANNs is imperative. However, ANNs comprise a large number of artificial neurons, and a massive interconnection network among them. Hence, implementation of these ANNs involves execution of computer-intensive operations. The usage of multiprocessor systems therefore becomes necessary. In this article, we have presented the implementation of ART1 and ART2 ANNs on ring and mesh architectures. The overall system design and implementation aspects are presented. The performance of the algorithm on ring, 2-dimensional mesh and n-dimensional mesh topologies is presented. The parallel algorithm presented for implementation of ART1 is not specific to any particular architecture. The parallel algorithm for ARTE is more suitable for a ring architecture.

Energy-Efficient Decentralized Cooperative Routing in Wireless Networks

Wireless adhoc networks transmit information from a source to a destination via multiple hops in order to save energy and, thus, increase the lifetime of battery-operated nodes. The energy savings can be especially significant in cooperative transmission schemes, where several nodes cooperate during one hop to forward the information to the next node along a route to the destination. Finding the best multi-hop transmission policy in such a network which determines nodes that are involved in each hop, is a very important problem, but also a very difficult one especially when the physical wireless channel behavior is to be accounted for and exploited. We model the above optimization problem for randomly fading channels as a decentralized control problem - the channel observations available at each node define the information structure, while the control policy is defined by the power and phase of the signal transmitted by each node. In particular, we consider the problem of computing an energy-optimal cooperative transmission scheme in a wireless network for two different channel fading models: (i) slow fading channels, where the channel gains of the links remain the same for a large number of transmissions, and (ii) fast fading channels, where the channel gains of the links change quickly from one transmission to another. For slow fading, we consider a factored class of policies (corresponding to local cooperation between nodes), and show that the computation of an optimal policy in this class is equivalent to a shortest path computation on an induced graph, whose edge costs can be computed in a decentralized manner using only locally available channel state information (CSI). For fast fading, both CSI acquisition and data transmission consume energy. Hence, we need to jointly optimize over both these; we cast this optimization problem as a large stochastic optimization problem. We then jointly optimize over a set of CSI functions of the local channel states, and a c- - orresponding factored class of control poli.

Functional correlation of bacterial LuxS with their quaternary associations: interface analysis of the structure networks

Background The genome of a wide variety of prokaryotes contains the luxS gene homologue, which encodes for the protein S-ribosylhomocysteinelyase (LuxS). This protein is responsible for the production of the quorum sensing molecule, AI-2 and has been implicated in a variety of functions such as flagellar motility, metabolic regulation, toxin production and even in pathogenicity. A high structural similarity is present in the LuxS structures determined from a few species. In this study, we have modelled the structures from several other species and have investigated their dimer interfaces. We have attempted to correlate the interface features of LuxS with the phenotypic nature of the organisms. Results The protein structure networks (PSN) are constructed and graph theoretical analysis is performed on the structures obtained from X-ray crystallography and on the modelled ones. The interfaces, which are known to contain the active site, are characterized from the PSNs of these homodimeric proteins. The key features presented by the protein interfaces are investigated for the classification of the proteins in relation to their function. From our analysis, structural interface motifs are identified for each class in our dataset, which showed distinctly different pattern at the interface of LuxS for the probiotics and some extremophiles. Our analysis also reveals potential sites of mutation and geometric patterns at the interface that was not evident from conventional sequence alignment studies. Conclusion The structure network approach employed in this study for the analysis of dimeric interfaces in LuxS has brought out certain structural details at the side-chain interaction level, which were elusive from the conventional structure comparison methods. The results from this study provide a better understanding of the relation between the luxS gene and its functional role in the prokaryotes. This study also makes it possible to explore the potential direction towards the design of inhibitors of LuxS and thus towards a wide range of antimicrobials.

Ship Seakeeping Operability, Motion Control, and Autonomy - A Bayesian Perspective

Ship seakeeping operability refers to the quantification of motion performance in waves relative to mission requirements. This is used to make decisions about preferred vessel designs, but it can also be used as comprehensive assessment of the benefits of ship-motion-control systems. Traditionally, operability computation aggregates statistics of motion computed over over the envelope of likely environmental conditions in order to determine a coefficient in the range from 0 to 1 called operability. When used for assessment of motion-control systems, the increase of operability is taken as the key performance indicator. The operability coefficient is often given the interpretation of the percentage of time operable. This paper considers an alternative probabilistic approach to this traditional computation of operability. It characterises operability not as a number to which a frequency interpretation is attached, but as a hypothesis that a vessel will attain the desired performance in one mission considering the envelope of likely operational conditions. This enables the use of Bayesian theory to compute the probability of that this hypothesis is true conditional on data from simulations. Thus, the metric considered is the probability of operability. This formulation not only adheres to recent developments in reliability and risk analysis, but also allows incorporating into the analysis more accurate descriptions of ship-motion-control systems since the analysis is not limited to linear ship responses in the frequency domain. The paper also discusses an extension of the approach to the case of assessment of increased levels of autonomy for unmanned marine craft.

Co-ordinate Interleaved Distributed Space-Time Coding for Two-Antenna-Relays Networks

Distributed space time coding for wireless relay networks when the source, the destination and the relays have multiple antennas have been studied by Jing and Hassibi. In this set-up, the transmit and the receive signals at different antennas of the same relay are processed and designed independently, even though the antennas are colocated. In this paper, a wireless relay network with single antenna at the source and the destination and two antennas at each of the R relays is considered. A new class of distributed space time block codes called Co-ordinate Interleaved Distributed Space-Time Codes (CIDSTC) are introduced where, in the first phase, the source transmits a T-length complex vector to all the relays;and in the second phase, at each relay, the in-phase and quadrature component vectors of the received complex vectors at the two antennas are interleaved and processed before forwarding them to the destination. Compared to the scheme proposed by Jing-Hassibi, for T >= 4R, while providing the same asymptotic diversity order of 2R, CIDSTC scheme is shown to provide asymptotic coding gain with the cost of negligible increase in the processing complexity at the relays. However, for moderate and large values of P, CIDSTC scheme is shown to provide more diversity than that of the scheme proposed by Jing-Hassibi. CIDSTCs are shown to be fully diverse provided the information symbols take value from an appropriate multidimensional signal set.

A Bayesian Framework for the Assessment of Vision-based Weed and Fruit Detection and Classification Algorithms

This paper proposes new metrics and a performance-assessment framework for vision-based weed and fruit detection and classification algorithms. In order to compare algorithms, and make a decision on which one to use fora particular application, it is necessary to take into account that the performance obtained in a series of tests is subject to uncertainty. Such characterisation of uncertainty seems not to be captured by the performance metrics currently reported in the literature. Therefore, we pose the problem as a general problem of scientific inference, which arises out of incomplete information, and propose as a metric of performance the(posterior) predictive probabilities that the algorithms will provide a correct outcome for target and background detection. We detail the framework through which these predicted probabilities can be obtained, which is Bayesian in nature. As an illustration example, we apply the framework to the assessment of performance of four algorithms that could potentially be used in the detection of capsicums (peppers).

A simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials

A flexible and simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials is proposed in this paper. In order to reduce the computational burden, we adopt a working model with conjugate priors, which is flexible to fit all monotonic dose-toxicity curves and produces analytic posterior distributions. We also discuss how to use a proper utility function to reflect the interest of the trial. Patients are allocated based on not only the utility function but also the chosen dose selection rule. The most popular dose selection rule is the one-step-look-ahead (OSLA), which selects the best-so-far dose. A more complicated rule, such as the two-step-look-ahead, is theoretically more efficient than the OSLA only when the required distributional assumptions are met, which is, however, often not the case in practice. We carried out extensive simulation studies to evaluate these two dose selection rules and found that OSLA was often more efficient than two-step-look-ahead under the proposed Bayesian structure. Moreover, our simulation results show that the proposed Bayesian method's performance is superior to several popular Bayesian methods and that the negative impact of prior misspecification can be managed in the design stage.

Bayesian designs with frequentist and Bayesian error rate considerations

So far, most Phase II trials have been designed and analysed under a frequentist framework. Under this framework, a trial is designed so that the overall Type I and Type II errors of the trial are controlled at some desired levels. Recently, a number of articles have advocated the use of Bavesian designs in practice. Under a Bayesian framework, a trial is designed so that the trial stops when the posterior probability of treatment is within certain prespecified thresholds. In this article, we argue that trials under a Bayesian framework can also be designed to control frequentist error rates. We introduce a Bayesian version of Simon's well-known two-stage design to achieve this goal. We also consider two other errors, which are called Bayesian errors in this article because of their similarities to posterior probabilities. We show that our method can also control these Bayesian-type errors. We compare our method with other recent Bayesian designs in a numerical study and discuss implications of different designs on error rates. An example of a clinical trial for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma is used to illustrate differences of the different designs.