A long-term analysis of pumped hydro storage to firm wind power

Although pumped hydro storage is seen as a strategic key asset by grid operators, financing it is complicated in new liberalised markets. It could be argued that the optimum generation portfolio is now determined by the economic viability of generators based on a short to medium term return on investment. This has meant that capital intensive projects such as pumped hydro storage are less attractive for wholesale electricity companies because the payback periods are too long. In tandem a significant amount of wind power has entered the generation mix, which has resulted in operating and planning integration issues due to wind's inherent uncertain, varying spatial and temporal nature. These integration issues can be overcome using fast acting gas peaking plant or energy storage. Most analysis of wind power integration using storage to date has used stochastic optimisation for power system balancing or arbitrage modelling to examine techno-economic viability. In this research a deterministic dynamic programming long term generation expansion model is employed to optimise the generation mix, total system costs and total carbon dioxide emissions, and unlike other studies calculates reserve to firm wind power. The key finding of this study is that the incentive to build capital-intensive pumped hydro storage to firm wind power is limited unless exogenous market costs come very strongly into play. Furthermore it was demonstrated that reserve increases with increasing wind power showing the importance of ancillary services in future power systems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal Time Series Momentum

We develop a continuous-time asset price model to capture the timeseries momentum documented recently. The underlying stochastic delay differentialsystem facilitates the analysis of effects of different time horizons used bymomentum trading. By studying an optimal asset allocation problem, we find thatthe performance of time series momentum strategy can be significantly improvedby combining with market fundamentals and timing opportunity with respect tomarket trend and volatility. Furthermore, the results also hold for different timehorizons, the out-of-sample tests and with short-sale constraints. The outperformanceof the optimal strategy is immune to market states, investor sentiment andmarket volatility.

On Being Let Loose in the Field: The Execution of Professional Ethics

In recent years concerns over litigation and the trend towards close monitoring of academic activity has seen the effective hijacking of research ethics by university managers and bureaucrats. This can effectively curtail cutting edge research as perceived ‘safe’ research strategies are encouraged. However, ethics is about more than research governance. Ultimately, it seeks to avoid harm and to increase benefits to society. Rural development debate is fairly quiet on the question of ethics, leaving guidance to professional bodies. This study draws on empirical research that examined the lives of migrant communities in Northern Ireland. This context of increasingly diverse rural development actors provides a backdrop for the way in which the researcher navigates through ethical issues as they unfold in the field. The analysis seeks to relocate ethics from being an annoying bureaucratic requirement to one where it is inherent to rigorous and professional research and practice. It reveals how attention to professional ethics can contribute to effective, situated and reflexive practice, thus transforming ethics to become an asset to professional researchers.

Testing of a Market Fraction Model and Power-law Behaviour in the DAX 30

This paper tests a simple market fraction asset pricing model with heterogeneous
agents. By selecting a set of structural parameters of the model through a systematic procedure, we show that the autocorrelations (of returns, absolute returns and squared returns) of the market fraction model share the same pattern as those of the DAX 30. By conducting econometric analysis via Monte Carlo simulations, we characterize these power-law behaviours and find that estimates of the power-law decay indices, the (FI)GARCH parameters, and the tail index of the selected market fraction model closely match those of the DAX 30. The results strongly support the explanatory power of the heterogeneous agent models.

A new performance based method for design and maintenance of reinforced concrete structures

Best concrete research paper by a student - Research has shown that the cost of managing structures puts high strain on the infrastructure budget, with
estimates of over 50% of the European construction budget being dedicated to repair and maintenance. If reinforced concrete
structures are not suitably designed and adequately maintained, their service life is compromised, resulting in the full economic
value of the investment not realised. The issue is more prevalent in coastal structures as a result of combinations of aggressive
actions, such as those caused by chlorides, sulphates and cyclic freezing and thawing.
It is a common practice nowadays to ensure durability of reinforced concrete structures by specifying a concrete mix and a
nominal cover at the design stage to cater for the exposure environment. This in theory should produce the performance required
to achieve a specified service life. Although the European Standard EN 206-1 specifies variations in the exposure environment,
it does not take into account the macro and micro climates surrounding structures, which have a significant influence on their
performance and service life. Therefore, in order to construct structures which will perform satisfactorily in different exposure
environments, the following two aspects need to be developed: a performance based specification to supplement EN 206-1
which will outline the expected performance of the structure in a given environment; and a simple yet transferrable procedure
for assessing the performance of structures in service termed KPI Theory. This will allow the asset managers not only to design
structures for the intended service life, but also to take informed maintenance decisions should the performance in service fall
short of what was specified. This paper aims to discuss this further.

A research-based approach to exploring the adoption of novel UK-based concrete test methods in Chinese construction sector

As part of a UK-China science bridge project - a UK government funded initiative linking leading universities and businesses in selective partnering countries in 2009 a collaborative research programme was initiated between Queen's University and the Research Institute of High Performance Concrete (part of the Central Research Institute of Building and Construction) in Beijing.

For further details email b.magee@ulster.ac.uk

The G20 and Monetary Policy Stasis

Since the financial crash of 2008 monetary policy has been in a state of stasis – a condition in which things are not changing, moving, or progressing, but rather appear frozen. Interest rates have been frozen at low levels for a considerable period time. Inflation targets have consistently been missed, through phases of both overshooting and undershooting. At the same time, a variety of unconventional monetary policies involving asset purchases and liquidity provision have been pursued. Questions have been raised from a variety of sources, including various international organizations, covering distinct BIS and IMF positions about the continuing validity and sustainability of existing monetary policy frameworks, not least because inflation targeting has ceased to act as reliable guide for policy for over six years. Despite this central banks have been reluctant to debate moving to a new formal policy framework. This article argues that as an apex policy forum only the G20 leaders’ summits has the necessary political authority to call their central banks to account and initiate a wide ranging debate on the future of monetary policy. A case is made for convening a monetary policy working group to discuss a range of positions, including those of the BIS and IMF, and to make recommendations, because the G20 has been most effective in displaying international financial leadership, when leaders have convened and made use of specialist working groups.

The cross-section of stock returns in an early stock market

Using a new dataset which contains monthly data on 1015 stocks traded on the London Stock Exchange between 1825 and 1870, we investigate the cross section of stock returns in this early capital market. Unique features of this market allow us to evaluate the veracity of several popular explanations of asset pricing behavior. Using portfolio analysis and Fama–MacBeth regressions, we find that stock characteristics such as beta, illiquidity, dividend yield, and past-year return performance are all positively correlated with stock returns. However, market capitalization and past-three-year return performance have no significant correlation with stock returns.

A new analytical approach for the detection of palm oil in vegetable oil blends

The new Food Information Regulation (1169/2011), dictates that in a refined vegetable oil blend, the type of oil must be clearly identified in the package in contract with current practice where is labelled under the generic and often misleading term “vegetable oil”. With increase consumer awareness in food authenticity, as shown in the recent food scandal with horsemeat in beef products, the identification of the origin of species in food products becomes increasingly relevant. Palm oil is used extensively in food manufacturing and as global demand increases, producing countries suffer from the aftermath of intensive agriculture. Even if only a small portion of global production, sustainable palm oil comes in great demand from consumers and industry. It is therefore of interest to detect the presence of palm oil in food products as consumers have the right to know if it is present in the product or not, mainly from an ethical point of view. Apart from palm oil and its derivatives, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil are also included. With DNA-based methods, the gold standard for the detection of food authenticity and species recognition deemed not suitable in this analytical problem, the focus is inevitably drawn to the chromatographic and spectroscopic methods. Both chromatographic (such as GC-FID and LC-MS) and spectroscopic methods (FT-IR, Raman, NIR) are relevant. Previous attempts have not shown promising results due to oils’ natural variation in composition and complex chemical signals but the suggested two-step analytical procedure is a promising approach with very good initial results.

Combined effect of high pressure processing and antimicrobial packaging to control the growth of Listeria monocytogenes on ready-to-eat chicken breast

In the European Union, food is considered safe with regard to Listeria monocytogenes if its numbers do not exceed 100 cfu/g throughout the shelf-life of the food. Therefore, it is important to determine if a food supports growth of L. monocytogenes. Challenge tests are laboratory-based studies that measure the growth of L. monocytogenes on artificially contaminated food stored under foreseeable conditions of transportation, distribution and storage. The aim of this study was to elaborate and optimize a user-friendly protocol to perform challenge tests on food and to apply it to determine whether growth of L. monocytogenes is supported during the production and distribution of a potentially risky food i.e. mushrooms. A three-strain mixture of L. monocytogenes was inoculated onto three independent batches of whole mushrooms, sliced mushrooms, mushroom casing and mushroom substrate at a concentration of about 100 -1000 cfu/g. The batches were incubated at potential abuse temperatures, as a worst case scenario, and at intervals during storage L. monocytogenes numbers, % moisture and pH were determined. The results showed that the sliced and whole mushrooms supported growth of L. monocytogenes while mushroom casing allowed survival but did not support growth. Mushroom substrate showed a rich background microflora able of growing in Listeria selective media which hindered enumeration of L. monocytogenes. Combase predictions were not always accurate, indicating that challenge tests are a necessary part of growth determination of L. monocytogenes.

Characterisation of UK and Irish Cold-Pressed Rapeseed Oils in Relation to Quality Indices and Constituents.

Cold-pressed rapeseed oil (CPRSO) is produced when seeds from an oilseed rape crop are mechanically crushed whilst at a low temperature. CPRSO’s popularity is rapidly expanding and is now produced in most Northern European countries including both N.Ireland and ROI. The CPRSO industry is still relatively new and therefore not as widely researched as other high quality oils. Fifteen CPRSO from The UK, Ireland and France were examined to determine characteristic differences between the oils. Two samples of extra-virgin olive oil and two samples of refined rapeseed oil were also included in the investigation to assess performance against market competitors. The antioxidant potential of the oils was assessed using the ABTS and DPPH radical scavenging assays. Both unexpectedly showed that refined rapeseed oil had the highest potential whilst there was significant difference between many of the CPRSO’s. The acid value (ACOS method Cd 3d-63) ranged widely from 0.47-3.41. To predict the stability during storage, an accelerated oxidation test was carried out where the oils were placed in an oven (60°C) and peroxide value was monitored. The results showed extra-virgin olive oil underwent the least oxidation during the trial. The refined rapeseed oil suffered the worst levels of oxidation whilst the CPRSO’s performed similarly but with some variation. Fatty acid composition was investigated with GC-MS and some of the major fatty acids were found to differ significantly between producers. Minor compound analysis was achieved with extraction and identification through HPLC. All results are critically discussed and compared to relevant published studies.

STARTEC: Novel processing technologies in the development of a decision support tool to ensure safe and nutritious Ready-To-Eat foods

Ready-to-eat (RTE) foods can be readily consumed with minimum or without any further preparation; their processing is complex—involving thorough decontamination processes— due to their composition of mixed ingredients. Compared with conventional preservation technologies, novel processing technologies can enhance the safety and quality of these complex products by reducing the risk of pathogens and/ or by preserving related health-promoting compounds. These novel technologies can be divided into two categories: thermal and non-thermal. As a non-thermal treatment, High Pressure Processing is a very promising novel methodology that can be used even in the already packaged RTE foods. A new “volumetric” microwave heating technology is an interesting cooking and decontamination method directly applied to foods. Cold Plasma technology is a potential substitute of chlorine washing in fresh vegetable decontamination. Ohmic heating is a heating method applicable to viscous products but also to meat products. Producers of RTE foods have to deal with challenging decisions starting from the ingredients suppliers to the distribution chain. They have to take into account not only the cost factor but also the benefits and food products’ safety and quality. Novel processing technologies can be a valuable yet large investment for several SME food manufacturers, but they need support data to be able to make adequate decisions. Within the FP7 Cooperation funded by the European Commission, the STARTEC project aims to develop an IT decision supporting tool to help food business operators in their risk assessment and future decision making when producing RTE foods with or without novel preservation technologies.

Changes in quality and safety attributes throughout long term storage of tomato juice processed by high pressure.

Tomato is the second most widely grown vegetable crop across the globe and it is one of widely cultivated crops in Sri Lanka. However, tomato industry in Sri Lanka facing a problem of high postharvest loss (54%) during the glut coupled with heavy revenue loss to the country by importing processed products. The aim of this work is to develop shelf-stable tomato product with maximum quality characteristics using high pressure processing (HPP). Tomato juice with altered and unaltered pH was processed using HPP at 600 MPa for 1 min after blanching (90 oC/2 min). As a control tomato juice was subjected to thermal processing (TP) at 95 oC /20 min. Processed samples were stored under 20oC and 28oC for 9 month period and analysed for total viable count (TVC) and instrumental colour (L, a, b) value at 0,1,2 3, and 4 week and 2, 3, 6 and 9 months interval. The raw juice sample had initial 6.69 log10 CFU/ml and both TP and HPP caused a more than 4.69 log10 reduction in the TVC of juice and microbial numbers remained low throughout the storage period even at 3 months after storage irrespective of the storage temperature. Both TP and HPP treated samples had the redness ⤘a value’ of 14.44-17.15 just after processing and showed non-significant reduction with storage in all the treatments after 3 months. The storage study results and discussed in relation to the end goal and compared with the literature.

FoodCAP: acid-labile protein adducts of heterocyclic amines in human blood are not viable biomarkers of HCA dietary exposure

Intake of heterocyclic amines (HCAs, carcinogens produced during cooking of meat/fish, the most abundant being PhIP, DiMeIQx and MeIQx) is influenced by many factors including type/thickness of meat and cooking method/temperature/duration. Thus, assessment of HCA dietary exposure is difficult. Protein adducts of HCAs have been proposed as potential medium-term biomarkers of exposure, e.g. PhIP adducted to serum albumin or haemoglobin. However, evidence is still lacking that HCA adducts are viable biomarkers in humans consuming normal diets. The FoodCAP project, supported by World Cancer Research Fund, developed a highly sensitive mass spectrometric method for hydrolysis, extraction and detection of acid-labile HCAs in blood and assessed their validity as biomarkers of exposure. Multiple acid/alkaline hydrolysis conditions were assessed, followed by liquid-liquid extraction, clean-up by cation-exchange SPE and quantification by UPLC-ESI-MS/ MS. Blood was analysed from volunteers who completed food diaries to estimate HCA intake based on the US National Cancer Institute’s CHARRED database. Standard HCAs were recovered quantitatively from fortified blood. In addition, PhIP/MeIQx adducts bound to albumin and haemoglobin prepared in vitro using a human liver microsome system were also detectable in blood fortified at low ppt concentrations. However, except for one sample (5pg/ml PhIP), acid-labile PhIP, 7,8-DiMeIQx, 4,8-DiMeIQx and MeIQx were not observed above the 2pg/ml limit of detection in plasma (n=35), or in serum, whole blood or purified albumin, even in volunteers with high meat consumption (nominal HCA intake >2µg/day). It is concluded that HCA blood protein adducts are not viable biomarkers of exposure. Untargeted metabolomic analyses may facilitate discovery of suitable markers.

The application of metabolomic biomarker screening tools for improved Bovine Respiratory Disease diagnosis and management

Bovine Respiratory Disease (BRD) is considered to be one of the most significant causes of economic loss in cattle worldwide. The disease has multifactorial aetiology, where viral induced respiratory damage can predispose animals to developing secondary bacterial infections. Accurate identification of viral infected animals prior to the onset of bacterial infection is necessary to reduce the overuse of antimicrobial treatments and minimize further economic losses from reduced production capacity and death. This research focuses on Bovine Parainfluenza Virus Type 3 (BPIV-3), one of the viruses involved in generating BRD. Vaccination measures for BPIV-3 can induce a level of immunity preventing disease progression, however, not all animals respond equally and immunization can complicate disease diagnosis. Alternative diagnostic approaches are required to identify animals which fail to respond to vaccination during infection outbreaks and are therefore likely to be more susceptible to secondary bacterial infections. Mass spectrometry based metabolomics was employed to identify plasma markers capable of differentiating between vaccinated and non-vaccinated calves after challenge with BPIV-3. Differentiation of vaccinated and non-vaccinated study groups (n=6) was possible as early as day 2 post-BPIV-3 challenge up until day 20 using a panel of potential metabolite markers. This study illustrates the potential for metabolomics to provide more detailed information on animal vaccination status that could be used to develop tools for improved herd health management, reduce economic loss through rapid identification and isolation of animals without immune protection (improving herd level immunity) and help reduce the usage of antimicrobial therapeutic treatments in animals.