Effect of radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery on 10-year recurrence and 15-year breast cancer death: meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10,801 women in 17 randomised trials

Background: After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy reduces recurrence and breast cancer death, but it may do so more for some groups of women than for others. We describe the absolute magnitude of these reductions according to various prognostic and other patient characteristics, and relate the absolute reduction in 15-year risk of breast cancer death to the absolute reduction in 10-year recurrence risk.
Methods: We undertook a meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10?801 women in 17 randomised trials of radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery, 8337 of whom had pathologically confirmed node-negative (pN0) or node-positive (pN+) disease.
Findings: Overall, radiotherapy reduced the 10-year risk of any (ie, locoregional or distant) first recurrence from 35·0% to 19·3% (absolute reduction 15·7%, 95% CI 13·7–17·7, 2p<0·00001) and reduced the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 25·2% to 21·4% (absolute reduction 3·8%, 1·6–6·0, 2p=0·00005). In women with pN0 disease (n=7287), radiotherapy reduced these risks from 31·0% to 15·6% (absolute recurrence reduction 15·4%, 13·2–17·6, 2p<0·00001) and from 20·5% to 17·2% (absolute mortality reduction 3·3%, 0·8–5·8, 2p=0·005), respectively. In these women with pN0 disease, the absolute recurrence reduction varied according to age, grade, oestrogen-receptor status, tamoxifen use, and extent of surgery, and these characteristics were used to predict large (=20%), intermediate (10–19%), or lower (<10%) absolute reductions in the 10-year recurrence risk. Absolute reductions in 15-year risk of breast cancer death in these three prediction categories were 7·8% (95% CI 3·1–12·5), 1·1% (–2·0 to 4·2), and 0·1% (–7·5 to 7·7) respectively (trend in absolute mortality reduction 2p=0·03). In the few women with pN+ disease (n=1050), radiotherapy reduced the 10-year recurrence risk from 63·7% to 42·5% (absolute reduction 21·2%, 95% CI 14·5–27·9, 2p<0·00001) and the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 51·3% to 42·8% (absolute reduction 8·5%, 1·8–15·2, 2p=0·01). Overall, about one breast cancer death was avoided by year 15 for every four recurrences avoided by year 10, and the mortality reduction did not differ significantly from this overall relationship in any of the three prediction categories for pN0 disease or for pN+ disease.
Interpretation: After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy to the conserved breast halves the rate at which the disease recurs and reduces the breast cancer death rate by about a sixth. These proportional benefits vary little between different groups of women. By contrast, the absolute benefits from radiotherapy vary substantially according to the characteristics of the patient and they can be predicted at the time when treatment decisions need to be made.
Funding: Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council.

Bone mineral density in relation to medical and lifestyle risk factors for osteoporosis in premenopausal, menopausal and postmenopausal women in general practice

Background: Interest in the prevention of osteoporosis is increasing and thus there is a need for an acceptable osteoporosis prevention programme in general practice. AIM. A study was undertaken to identify a cohort of middle-aged women attending a general practice who would be eligible for a longitudinal study looking at bone mineral density, osteoporosis and the effectiveness of hormone replacement therapy. This study aimed to describe the relationship between medical and lifestyle risk factors for osteoporosis and the initial bone density measurements in this group of women. METHOD. A health visitor administered a questionnaire to women aged between 48 and 52 years registered with a Belfast general practice. The main outcome measures were menopausal status, presence of medical and lifestyle risk factors and bone mineral density measurements. RESULTS. A total of 358 women our of 472 (76%) took part in the study which was conducted in 1991 and 1992. A highly significant difference was found between the mean bone mineral density of premenopausal, menopausal and postmenopausal women within the narrow study age range, postmenopausal women having the lowest bone mineral density. A significant relationship was found between body mass index and bone mineral density, a greater bone mineral density being found among women with a higher body mass index. Risk factors such as smoking and sedentary lifestyle were common (reported by approximately one third of respondents) but a poor relationship was found between these two and all the other risk factors and bone mineral density in this age group. CONCLUSION. Risk of osteoporosis cannot be identified by the presence of risk factors in women aged between 48 and 52 years. In terms of a current prevention strategy for general practice it would be better to take a population-based approach except for those women known to be at high risk of osteoporosis: women with early menopause or those who have had an oophorectomy.

In Demand: Therapeutic Services for Children and Young People Who Have Experienced Sexual Abuse

This paper describes the key findings of an NSPCC study estimating need, in the UK, for therapeutic services for children who have experienced sexual abuse. This is based upon current estimates of the prevalence and impact of sexual abuse towards children and young people against the availability of therapeutic services in the UK. Data were collected on service location, availability, scope and coverage across England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. Researchers: (1) mapped 508 services; (2) collected data from 195 services via a structured questionnaire; (3) followed up 21 service managers and 11 service commissioners with a semi-structured interview; and (4) carried out two focus groups with young people. Data were collected on service location, availability, scope and coverage The overall level of specialist provision is low, with less than one service available per 10 000 children and young people in the UK. Calculations of need indicate that 57 156 children across the UK in the last year may have been unable to access a service. Findings from services support the view that need outstrips availability; that referral routes are limited, leaving few options for young people who have been raped or seriously sexually assaulted to directly access support; that significant waiting lists mean services must focus on reactive, rather than preventive, work; and that services are less accessible for certain groups, especially sexually abused teenagers, children with disabilities and those from Black, Asian, Minority Ethnic and Refugee backgrounds. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Key Practitioner Messages Relevant professionals must be adequately trained to talk to children about sexual abuse and to identify those vulnerable in order to identify need. Expert specialist services are well placed to share learning on early help and identification with broader children's service providers. Active steps need to be taken by commissioners in consultation with young people, voluntary sector and adult sexual violence service providers to meet the shortfall at the level of local authorities.

Anti-angiogenic factors and pre-eclampsia in type 1 diabetic women

Aims/hypothesis: Elevated anti-angiogenic factors such as soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt1), a soluble form of vascular endothelial growth factor receptor, and endoglin, a co-receptor for TGFß1, confer high risk of pre-eclampsia in healthy pregnant women. In this multicentre prospective study, we determined levels of these and related factors in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes, a condition associated with a fourfold increase in pre-eclampsia.
Methods: Maternal serum sFlt1, endoglin, placental growth factor (PlGF) and pigment epithelial derived factor were measured in 151 type 1 diabetic and 24 healthy non-diabetic women at each trimester and at term.
Results: Approximately 22% of the diabetic women developed pre-eclampsia, primarily after their third trimester visit. In women with pre-eclampsia (diabetic pre-eclampsia, n?=?26) vs those without hypertensive complications (diabetic normotensive, n?=?95), significant changes in angiogenic factors were observed, predominantly in the early third trimester and prior to clinical manifestation of pre-eclampsia. Serum sFlt1 levels were increased approximately twofold in type 1 diabetic pre-eclampsia vs type 1 diabetic normotensive women at the third trimester visit (p?<?0.05) and the normal rise of PlGF during pregnancy was blunted (p?<?0.05). Among type 1 diabetic women, third trimester sFlt1 and PlGF were inversely related (r2?=?42%, p?<?0.0001). Endoglin levels were increased significantly in the diabetic group as a whole vs the non-diabetic group (p?<?0.0001).
Conclusions/interpretation: Higher sFlt1 levels, a blunted PlGF rise and an elevated sFlt1/PlGF ratio are predictive of pre-eclampsia in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes. Elevated endoglin levels in women with type 1 diabetes may confer a predisposition to pre-eclampsia and may contribute to the high incidence of pre-eclampsia in this patient group.

Maternal Vitamin D Status in Type 1 Diabetic Pregnancy: Impact on Neonatal Vitamin D Status and Association with Maternal Glycaemic Control

Objective: The first aim of this study was to assess 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25OHD) concentrations in women with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) during pregnancy, post-delivery and also foetal (cord blood) 25OHD concentrations and to examine relationships between these. The second aim of the study was to investigate potential interactions between maternal body mass index (BMI) and foetal vitamin D status. A further study aim was to examine potential relationships between maternal 25OHD and glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA_1c) throughout pregnancy.

Research Design and Methods: This was an observational study of 52 pregnant controls without diabetes and 65 pregnant women with T1DM in a university teaching hospital. Maternal serum 25OHD was measured serially throughout the pregnancy and post-delivery. Cord blood 25OHD was measured at delivery. 25OHD was measured by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS).

Results: Vitamin D deficiency (25OHD <25 nmol/L) was apparent in both the T1DM subjects and controls at all 3 pregnancy trimesters. Vitamin D levels in all cord blood were <50 nmol/L. Maternal 25OHD correlated positively with cord 25OHD at all 3 trimesters in the T1DM group (p= 0.02; p<0.001; p<0.001). 25OHD levels within cord blood were significantly lower for women with diabetes classified as obese vs. normal weight at booking [normal weight BMI <25 kg/m² vs. obese BMI >30 kg/m² (nmol/L±SD); 19.93±11.15 vs. 13.73±4.74, p= 0.026]. In the T1DM group, HbA_1c at booking was significantly negatively correlated with maternal 25OHD at all 3 trimesters (p= 0.004; p = 0.001; p= 0.05).

Conclusion: In T1DM pregnancy, low vitamin D levels persist throughout gestation and post-delivery. Cord blood vitamin D levels correlate with those of the mother, and are significantly lower in obese women than in their normal weight counterparts. Maternal vitamin D levels exhibit a significant negative relationship with HbA_1c levels, supporting a potential role for this vitamin in maintaining glycaemic control. 

Prevalence of human papillomavirus in women attending cervical screening in the UK and Ireland:New data from northern Ireland and a systematic review and meta-analysis

There is substantial international variation in human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence; this study details the first report from Northern Ireland and additionally provides a systematic review and meta-analysis pooling the prevalence of high-risk (HR-HPV) subtypes among women with normal cytology in the UK and Ireland. Between February and December 2009, routine liquid based cytology (LBC) samples were collected for HPV detection (Roche Cobas® 4800 [PCR]) among unselected women attending for cervical cytology testing. Four electronic databases, including MEDLINE, were then searched from their inception till April 2011. A random effects meta-analysis was used to calculate a pooled HR-HPV prevalence and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). 5,712 women, mean age 39 years (±SD 11.9 years; range 20-64 years), were included in the analysis, of which 5,068 (88.7%), 417 (7.3%) and 72 (1.3%) had normal, low, and high-grade cytological findings, respectively. Crude HR-HPV prevalence was 13.2% (95% CI, 12.7-13.7) among women with normal cytology and increased with cytological grade. In meta-analysis the pooled HR-HPV prevalence among those with normal cytology was 0.12 (95% CIs, 0.10-0.14; 21 studies) with the highest prevalence in younger women. HPV 16 and HPV 18 specific estimates were 0.03 (95% CI, 0.02-0.05) and 0.01 (95% CI, 0.01-0.02), respectively. The findings of this Northern Ireland study and meta-analysis verify the prevalent nature of HPV infection among younger women. Reporting of the type-specific prevalence of HPV infection is relevant for evaluating the impact of future HPV immunization initiatives, particularly against HR-HPV types other than HPV 16 and 18. J. Med. Virol. 85:295-308, 2013. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A randomised, phase II trial of the DNA-hypomethylating agent 5-aza-2'-deoxycytidine (decitabine) in combination with carboplatin vs carboplatin alone in patients with recurrent, partially platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer.

Background: Our previous laboratory and clinical data suggested that one mechanism underlying the development of platinum resistance in ovarian cancer is the acquisition of DNA methylation. We therefore tested the hypothesis that the DNA hypomethylating agent 5-aza-2'-deoxycytodine (decitabine) can reverse resistance to carboplatin in women with relapsed ovarian cancer.

Methods: Patients progressing 6-12 months after previous platinum therapy were randomised to decitabine on day 1 and carboplatin (AUC 6) on day 8, every 28 days or carboplatin alone. The primary objective was response rate in patients with methylated hMLH1 tumour DNA in plasma.

Results: After a pre-defined interim analysis, the study closed due to lack of efficacy and poor treatment deliverability in 15 patients treated with the combination. Responses by GCIG criteria were 9 out of 14 vs 3 out of 15 and by RECIST were 6 out of 13 vs 1 out of 12 for carboplatin and carboplatin/decitabine, respectively. Grade 3/4 neutropenia was more common with the combination (60% vs 15.4%) as was G2/3 carboplatin hypersensitivity (47% vs 21%).

Conclusions: With this schedule, the addition of decitabine appears to reduce rather than increase the efficacy of carboplatin in partially platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer and is difficult to deliver. Patient-selection strategies, different schedules and other demethylating agents should be considered in future combination studies.

Local recurrence in patients with large and locally advanced breast cancer treated with primary chemotherapy

Background: Primary chemotherapy is being given in the treatment of large and locally advanced breast cancers, but a major concern is local relapse after therapy. This paper has examined patients treated with primary chemotherapy and surgery (either breast-conserving surgery or mastectomy) and has examined the role of factors which may indicate those patients who are subsequently more likely to experience local recurrence of,disease.

Methods: A consecutive series of 173 women, with data available for 166 of these, presenting with large and locally advanced breast cancer (T2 >4 cm, T3, T4, or N2) were treated with primary chemotherapy comprising cyclophosphamide, vincristine, doxorubicin, and prednisolone and then surgery (either conservation or mastectomy with axillary surgery) followed by radiotherapy were examined.

Results: The clinical response rate of these patients was 75% (21% complete and 54% partial), with a complete pathological response rate of 15%. A total of 10 patients (6%) experienced local disease relapse, and the median time to relapse was 14 months (ranging from 3 to 40). The median survival in this group was 27 months (ranging from 13 to 78). In patients having breast conservation surgery, local recurrence occurred in 2%, and in those undergoing mastectomy 7% experience local relapse of disease. Factors predicting patients most likely to experience local recurrence were poor clinical response and residual axillary nodal disease after chemotherapy.

Conclusions: Excellent local control of disease can be achieved in patients with large and locally advanced breast cancers using a combination of primary chemotherapy, surgery and radiotherapy. However, the presence of residual tumor in the axillary lymph nodes after chemotherapy is a predictor of local recurrence and patients with a better clinical response were also less likely to experience local disease recurrence. The size and degree of pathological response did not predict patients most likely to experience recurrence of disease. (C) 2003 Excerpta Medica, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Millennium child with autism: Early childhood trajectories for health, education and economic wellbeing

Objective: Most of what we know about children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is based on post-diagnostic, retrospective, self-select studies. Oftentimes, there is no direct comparison between trajectories of children with ASD and children without ASD.

Methods: To circumvent both of these problems, the present secondary data analysis utilised a large-scale longitudinal general population survey of children born in the year 2000 (i.e. the Millennium Cohort Study; MCS; n=18522). Bi-annual MCS data were available from five data sweeps (children aged 9 months to 11 years of age).

Results: Pre-diagnostic data showed early health problems differentiated children later diagnosed with autism from non-diagnosed peers. Prevalence was much higher than previously estimated (3.5% for 11-year olds). Post-diagnosis, trajectories deteriorated significantly for the children with ASD and their families in relation to education, health and economic wellbeing.

Conclusion: These findings raise many issues for service delivery and the rights of persons with disabilities and their families.

Spindle assembly checkpoint protein expression correlates with cellular proliferation and shorter time to recurrence in ovarian cancer.

Ovarian carcinoma (OC) is the most lethal of the gynecological malignancies, often presenting at an advanced stage. Treatment is hampered by high levels of drug resistance. The taxanes are microtubule stabilizing agents, used as first-line agents in the treatment of OC that exert their apoptotic effects through the spindle assembly checkpoint. BUB1-related protein kinase (BUBR1) and mitotic arrest deficient 2 (MAD2), essential spindle assembly checkpoint components, play a key role in response to taxanes. BUBR1, MAD2, and Ki-67 were assessed on an OC tissue microarray platform representing 72 OC tumors of varying histologic subtypes. Sixty-one of these patients received paclitaxel and platinum agents combined; 11 received platinum alone. Overall survival was available for all 72 patients, whereas recurrence-free survival (RFS) was available for 66 patients. Increased BUBR1 expression was seen in serous carcinomas, compared with other histologies (P = .03). Increased BUBR1 was significantly associated with tumors of advanced stage (P = .05). Increased MAD2 and BUBR1 expression also correlated with increased cellular proliferation (P < .0002 and P = .02, respectively). Reduced MAD2 nuclear intensity was associated with a shorter RFS (P = .03), in ovarian tumors of differing histologic subtype (n = 66). In this subgroup, for those women who received paclitaxel and platinum agents combined (n = 57), reduced MAD2 intensity also identified women with a shorter RFS (P < .007). For the entire cohort of patients, irrespective of histologic subtype or treatment, MAD2 nuclear intensity retained independent significance in a multivariate model, with tumors showing reduced nuclear MAD2 intensity identifying patients with a poorer RFS (P = .05).

Lower resting energy expenditure and fat oxidation in Native American and Hispanic infants born to mothers with diabetes

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether exposure to diabetes in utero affects resting energy expenditure (REE) and fuel oxidation in infants.

STUDY DESIGN: At 35 ± 5 days after birth, body composition and REE were measured in full-term offspring of Native American and Hispanic women with either well-controlled diabetes (13 girls, 11 boys) or normal healthy pregnancies (18 girls, 17 boys).

RESULTS: Control of dysglycemia during gestation in the women with diabetes mellitus met current clinical standards, shown by average glycated hemoglobin (5.9 ± 0.2%; 40.6 ± 2.3 mmol/mol). Infant body mass (offspring of women with diabetes: 4.78 ± 0.13, control offspring: 4.56 ± 0.08 kg) and body fatness (offspring of women with diabetes: 25.2 ± 0.6, control offspring: 24.2 ± 0.5 %) did not differ between groups. REE, adjusted for lean body mass, was 14% lower in offspring of women with diabetes (41.7 ± 2.3 kJ/h) than control offspring (48.6 ± 2.0, P = .025). Fat oxidation was 26% lower in offspring of women with diabetes (0.54 ± 0.05 g/h) than control offspring (0.76 ± 0.04, P < .01) but carbohydrate oxidation did not differ. Thus, fat oxidation accounted for a lower fraction of REE in the offspring of women with diabetes (49 ± 4%) than control offspring (60 ± 3%, P = .022). Mothers with diabetes were older and had higher prepregnancy body mass index than control mothers.

CONCLUSIONS: Well-controlled maternal diabetes did not significantly affect body mass or composition of offspring at 1-month old. However, infants with mothers with diabetes had reduced REE and fat oxidation, which could contribute to adiposity and future disease risk. Further studies are needed to assess the impact differences in age and higher prepregnancy body mass index.

The Right to Appropriate and meaningful Education for Children with ASD

This paper will explore from a ‘child’s rights perspective’ the ‘right’ of children with autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) to appropriate and meaningful education.Human ‘rights’ principles within international law will be evaluated in relation to how they have been interpreted and applied in relation to achieving this ‘right’. The International Convention of the Rights of the Child (United Nations in Convention on the rights of the child, office of the high commissioner, United Nations, Geneva, 1989) and the convention on the rights of the person with disability (United Nations in Convention on the rights of person’s with disabilities and optional protocol, office of the high commissioner, United Nations, Geneva, 2006) amongst others will be utilised to argue the case for ‘inclusive’educational opportunities to be a ‘right’ of every child on the autistic spectrum. The efficacy of mainstream inclusion is explored, identifying the position that a ‘one size fits all’model of education is not appropriate for all children with ASD.

Influence of sex on the survival of patients with esophageal cancer

PURPOSE: The prognostic value of sex for esophageal cancer survival is currently unclear, and growing data suggest that hormonal influences may account for incidence disparities between men and women. Therefore, moving from the hypothesis that hormones could affect the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer, we investigated the primary hypothesis that sex is associated with survival and the secondary hypotheses that the relationship between sex and survival depends, at least in part, on age, histology, and race/ethnicity.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: By using the SEER databases from 1973 to 2007, we identified 13,603 patients (34%) with metastatic esophageal cancer (MEC) and 26,848 patients (66%) with locoregional esophageal cancer (LEC). Cox proportional hazards model for competing risks were used for analyses.

RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, women had longer esophageal cancer-specific survival (ECSS) than men in both MEC (hazard ratio [HR], 0.949; 95% CI, 0.905 to 0.995; P = .029) and LEC (HR, 0.920; 95% CI, 0.886 to 0.955; P < .001) cohorts. When age and histology were accounted for, there was no difference for ECSS between men and women with adenocarcinoma. In contrast, women younger than age 55 years (HR, 0.896; 95% CI, 0.792 to 1.014; P = .081) and those age 55 years or older (HR, 0.905; 95% CI, 0.862 to 0.950; P < .001) with squamous cell LEC had longer ECSS than men. In the squamous cell MEC cohort, only women younger than age 55 years had longer ECSS (HR, 0.823; 95% CI, 0.708 to 0.957; P = .011) than men.

CONCLUSION: Sex is an independent prognostic factor for patients with LEC or MEC. As secondary hypotheses, in comparison with men, women age 55 years or older with squamous cell LEC and women younger than age 55 years with squamous cell MEC have a significantly better outcome. These last two findings need further validation.

Women's Attachment as a Predictor of Pain During Labour and Post-Delivery: a Prospective Observational Study

INTRODUCTION: Labour is considered to be one of the most painful and significant experiences in a woman's life. The aim of this study was to examine whether women's attachment style is a predictor of the pain experienced throughout labour and post-delivery. MATERIAL AND METHODS:Thirty-two pregnant women were assessed during the third trimester of pregnancy and during labour. Adult attachment was assessed with the Adult Attachment Scale ' Revised. The perceived intensity of labour pain was measured using a visual analogue scale for pain in the early stage of labour, throughout labour and post-delivery. RESULTS:Women with an insecure attachment style reported more pain at 3 cm of cervical dilatation (p < 0.05), before the administration of analgesia (p < 0.01) and post-delivery (p < 0.05) than those securely attached. In multivariate models, attachment style was a significant predictor of labour pain at 3 cm of cervical dilatation and before the first administration of analgesia but not of the perceived pain post-delivery. DISCUSSION: These findings confirm that labour pain is influenced by relevant psychological factors and suggest that a woman's attachment style may be a risk factor for greater pain during labour. CONCLUSION:Future studies in the context of obstetric pain may consider the attachment style as an indicator of individual differences in the pain response during labour. This may have important implications in anaesthesiology and to promote a relevant shift in institutional practices and therapeutic procedures.

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.