Market makers v's the general public : a first look at S & P500 futures trade data

This paper considers 15 minute records of trading volume and traded prices coinciding with the reporting intervals required by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Records are extracted from trade records for market trade and also two way trade between market makers (CT1) and the general public (CT4) from January 1994 to June 2004. Futures price records are matched with S&P500 cash index price records. Simultaneous volatility models are specified and estimated to test trading volume to futures volatility lead/lag effects and also futures volatility to cash index volatility lead/lag effects. As we disaggregate from the market records to CT1 and CT4 records and further into year to year samples volume to futures volatility leading effects and also futures volatility to cash volatility leading effects dominate. The results raise important issues for risk management and dynamic hedging models employing intra-day trader data. A number of important issues for further analysis are also raised in this paper.

Does testosterone mediate the trade-off between nestling begging and growth in the canary (Serinus canaria)?

Nestling birds solicit food from their parents with vigorous begging displays, involving posturing, jostling and calling. In some species, such as canaries, begging is especially costly because it causes a trade off against nestling growth. Fitness costs of begging like this are predicted by evolutionary theory because they function to resolve conflicts of interest within the family over the provision of parental investment. However, the mechanism that links these costs with nestling behaviour remains unclear. In the present study, we determine if the relationships between nestling androgen levels, nestling begging intensities and nestling growth rates are consistent with the hypothesis that testosterone is responsible for the trade-off between begging and growth. We test this idea with a correlational study, using fecal androgens as a non-invasive method for assaying nestling androgen levels. Our results show that fecal androgen levels are positively correlated with nestling begging intensity, and reveal marked family differences in each trait. Furthermore, changes in fecal androgen levels between 5 and 8 days after hatching are positively associated with changes in nestling begging intensity, and negatively associated with nestling growth during this time. Although these correlational results support our predictions, we suggest that that experimental manipulations are now required to test the direct or indirect role of testosterone in mediating the trade-off between begging and growth.

Examining the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate : the case of China's trade with the USA

In this paper, we investigate the nexus between China's trade balance and the real exchange rate vis-à-vis the USA. Using the bounds testing approach to cointegration, we find evidence that China's trade balance and real exchange rate vis-à-vis the USA are cointegrated, and using the autoregressive distributed lag model we find that in both the short run and the long run a real devaluation of the Chinese RMB improves the trade balance; as a result, there is no evidence of a J-curve type adjustment.

Frequency-dependent physiological trade-offs between competing colour morphs

Evolutionary theory suggests that alternative colour morphs (i.e. genetically controlled phenotypes) may derive similar fitness under frequency-dependent selection. Here we experimentally demonstrate opposing effects of frequency-dependent social environments on plasma hormone levels (testosterone and corticosterone) and immune function between red- and black-headed male morphs of the Gouldian finch (Erythrura gouldiae). Red-headed males are highly sensitive to changes in the social environment, especially towards the relative density of their own aggressive morph, exhibiting high stress responses and immunosuppression in socially competitive environments. In contrast, the non-aggressive black-headed males follow a more passive strategy that appears to buffer them against social stresses. The differential effect of hormones on aggressive behaviour and immune performance reinforces the contrasting behavioural strategies employed by these colour morphs, and highlights the importance of the social environment in determining the individual basis of behavioural and physiological responses.

Quality of life related to oral versus subcutaneous iron chelation: a time trade-off study

Objective: To investigate the utility associated with subcutaneous infusion (deferoxamine) compared with once-daily oral administration (deferasirox) of iron chelation therapy.

Methods: Interviews using the time trade-off technique were used to estimate preferences (utility) for health states by finding the point at which respondents were indifferent between a longer but lower quality of life (QoL) and a shorter time in full health. Participants (n = 110) were community-based, 51% women, median age 35 years, from four regions in Sydney, Australia. Respondents rated three health states involving equal outcomes for people with thalassemia but with different treatment modalities for iron chelation; an "anchor state" describing a patient receiving iron chelation without administration mode specified, anchor state plus iron chelation via subcutaneous infusion, and anchor state plus iron chelation through once-daily oral medication.

Results: On an interval scale between 0 (death) and 1 (full health), median (interquartile range) utility of 0.80 (0.65–0.95) for the anchor state, 0.66 (0.45–0.87) for subcutaneous infusion, and 0.93 (0.80–0.97) for once-daily oral administration was obtained. The mean (median) difference of 0.23 (0.27) between the two treatments was statistically significant (Wilcoxon-signed rank test, P < 0.001). Subcutaneous infusion was associated with a mean (median) utility 0.13 (0.14) lower than the anchor state (P < 0.001), and once-daily oral treatment had a utility 0.10 (0.13) higher (P < 0.001).

Conclusion: Community respondents associate oral administration of an iron chelator such as deferasirox with enhanced QoL compared with subcutaneous treatment. Assuming equal safety and efficacy, QoL gains from once-daily oral treatment compared with subcutaneous infusion are significant.

'Waltzing Matilda' - registrable as a trade mark or not? (first instance decision)

In brief: The Federal Court has ruled against an application to register the trade mark 'WALTZING MATILDA' for a variety of foods and associated services. It found that the Winton Shire Council and the Waltzing Matilda Centre Limited (also in Winton, Queensland) had the better rights to ownership of the Australian icon – despite them not having coined the term 'Waltzing Matilda'.

Progress report : 'Waltzing Matilda' trade mark case (appeal decision)

In brief: In our August 2002 Bulletin, we reported on the decision of a single judge in the Federal Court that the Winton Shire Council in Queensland and the Waltzing Matilda Centre Limited (also in Winton) had better rights to ownership of the Australian icon 'WALTZING MATILDA', based on prior trade mark use, than the original applicant for the trade mark, Brenda Lomas. Ms Lomas has now won an appeal against this decision in the Full Court of the Federal Court.

Trade commitments in education services : the need to move out of the current impasse

Education services is included as part of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). This inclusion, however, has not gone without its critics, and discussions about the liberalization of education remain distinctly polarized. This article seeks to bring a more balanced debate to the mix by presenting the case of New Zealand, one of the most liberalized World Trade Organization (WTO) Members in trade in education services. Through this case study, it is discussed how New Zealand has chosen to shape the growth of the education market and steer its developments by including controlled mechanisms as part of its regulatory framework.