The Jama legal narrative. Part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, we reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: "The Jama Model. On Legal Narratives and Interpretation Patterns"), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story, is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability was infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for AI researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flouishing among legal scholars. Nowadays both the the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and Bayesioskeptics (e.g. Ron Allen) among those legal scholars whoare involved in the controversy are willing to give AI researchers a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application or probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making (Rosoni 1995). Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

The Jama legal narrative part I: The JAMA Model and narrative interpretation patterns

For the purposes of starting to tackle, within artificial intelligence (AI), the narrative aspects of legal narratives in a criminal evidence perspective, traditional AI models of narrative understanding can arguably supplement extant models of legal narratives from the scholarly literature of law, jury studies, or the semiotics of law. Not only: the literary (or cinematic) models prominent in a given culture impinge, with their poetic conventions, on the way members of the culture make sense of the world. This shows glaringly in the sample narrative from the Continent-the Jama murder, the inquiry, and the public outcry-we analyse in this paper. Apparently in the same racist crime category as the case of Stephen Lawrence's murder (in Greenwich on 22 April 1993) with the ensuing still current controversy in the UK, the Jama case (some 20 years ago) stood apart because of a very unusual element: the eyewitnesses identifying the suspects were a group of football referees and linesmen eating together at a restaurant, and seeing the sleeping man as he was set ablaze in a public park nearby. Professional background as witnesses-cum-factfinders in a mass sport, and public perceptions of their required characteristics, couldn't but feature prominently in the public perception of the case, even more so as the suspects were released by the magistrate conducting the inquiry. There are sides to this case that involve different expected effects in an inquisitorial criminal procedure system from the Continent, where an investigating magistrate leads the inquiry and prepares the prosecution case, as opposed to trial by jury under the Anglo-American adversarial system. In the JAMA prototype, we tried to approach the given case from the coign of vantage of narrative models from AI.

Parallel bandwidth characteristics calculations for thin avalanche photodiodes on a SGI Origin 2000 supercomputer

An important factor for high-speed optical communication is the availability of ultrafast and low-noise photodetectors. Among the semiconductor photodetectors that are commonly used in today’s long-haul and metro-area fiber-optic systems, avalanche photodiodes (APDs) are often preferred over p-i-n photodiodes due to their internal gain, which significantly improves the receiver sensitivity and alleviates the need for optical pre-amplification. Unfortunately, the random nature of the very process of carrier impact ionization, which generates the gain, is inherently noisy and results in fluctuations not only in the gain but also in the time response. Recently, a theory characterizing the autocorrelation function of APDs has been developed by us which incorporates the dead-space effect, an effect that is very significant in thin, high-performance APDs. The research extends the time-domain analysis of the dead-space multiplication model to compute the autocorrelation function of the APD impulse response. However, the computation requires a large amount of memory space and is very time consuming. In this research, we describe our experiences in parallelizing the code in MPI and OpenMP using CAPTools. Several array partitioning schemes and scheduling policies are implemented and tested. Our results show that the code is scalable up to 64 processors on a SGI Origin 2000 machine and has small average errors.

An inquiry concerning the acceptance of intrinsic value theories of nature

This study empirically assesses the extent to which intrinsic value theories of nature are accepted and acknowledged outside the realm of academic environmental ethics. It focuses on twenty of the largest landowning organisations in England, including both conservation and non-conservation organisations and investigates the environmental philosophical beliefs and values held by representative individuals of these groups. An in-depth interview was held with a representative from each organisation. The interviews were analysed using qualitative data analysis software and the results compared against a backdrop of academic philosophical positions. The study found that an ecocentric position which acknowledges nature's intrinsic value was adopted by the majority of respondents, both from conservation and non-conservation organisations. However, it was also found that individuals felt the idea of nature's intrinsic value was generally not reflected in organisational policy.

Fostering 'habits of reflection, independent study and free inquiry': an analysis of the short-lived phenomenon of General/Liberal Studies in English vocational education and training

In 1957, 12 years after the end of World War II, the Ministry of Education issued Circular 323 to promote the development of an element of ‘liberal studies’ in courses offered by technical and further education (FE) colleges in England. This was perceived to be in some ways a peculiar or uncharacteristic development. However, it lasted over 20 years, during which time most students on courses in FE colleges participated in what were termed General or Liberal Studies classes that complemented and/or contrasted with the technical content of their vocational programmes. By the end of the 1970s, these classes had changed in character, moving away from the concept of a ‘liberal education’ towards a prescribed diet of ‘communication studies’. The steady decline in apprenticeship numbers from the late 1960s onwards accelerated in the late 1970s, resulting in a new type of student (the state-funded ‘trainee’) into colleges whose curriculum would be prescribed by the Manpower Services Commission. This paper examines the Ministry’s thinking and charts the rise and fall of a curriculum phenomenon that became immortalised in the ‘Wilt’ novels of Tom Sharpe. The paper argues that the Ministry of Education’s concerns half a century ago are still relevant now, particularly as fresh calls are being made to raise the leaving age from compulsory education to 18, and in light of attempts in England to develop new vocational diplomas for full-time students in schools and colleges.

A unusual pinnotherid zoea attributed to Afropinnotheres monodi Manning, 1993 (Decapoda: Brachyura: Pinnotheridea) from the Selvagens Islands (Eastern Atlantic Ocean)

A pinnotherid zoea taken in a plankton sample from the Selvagens Islands during the TFMCBM/SELVAGENS’2000 Cruise, organized by the Natural Sciences Museum of Tenerife (Canary Islands), differs from previously described zoeas of the family. The specimen has dorsal and lateral spines but no rostrum, a combination of characters not previously described from pinnotherid zoeas. The lateral spines originate behind the upper part of the eye, unlike all previously described Pinnotheridae zoeas where these spines, when present, originate near the ventrolateral margin of the carapace. The specimen is attributed to Afropinnotheres monodi, the only pinnotherid species known from the area with undescribed larvae.

Columnar aerosol properties in a northeastern atlantic site (plymouth united kingdom) by means of ground based skyradiometer data during years 2000-2008.

Between 2000 and 2008, columnar optical and radiative properties were measured at the Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), UK (50° 21.95′N, 4° 8.85′W) using an automatic Prede POM01L sun–sky photometer. The database was analyzed for aerosol optical properties using the SKYRAD radiative inversion algorithm and calibrated using the in situ SKYIL calibration method. Retrievals include aerosol optical depth, Ångström wavelength exponent, aerosol volume distribution, refractive index and single scattering albedo. The results show that the Plymouth site is characterized by low values of aerosol optical depth with low variability (0.18 ± 0.08 at 500 nm) and a mean annual Ångström exponent of 1.03 ± 0.21. The annual mean of the single scattering albedo is 0.97, indicative of non-absorbing aerosols. The aerosol properties were classified in terms of air mass back trajectories: the area is mainly affected by Atlantic air masses and the dominant aerosol type is a mixture of maritime particles, present in low burdens with variable size. The maritime air masses were defined by annual mean values for the AOD (at 500 nm) of 0.13–0.14 and a wavelength exponent of 0.96–1.03. Episodic anthropogenic and mineral dust intrusions occasionally occur, but they are sporadic and dilute (AOD at 500 nm about 0.20). Tropical continental air masses were characterized by the highest AOD at 500 nm (0.34) and the lowest wavelength exponent (0.83), although they were the least represented in the analysis.

Phenotypical characterization in "Plasmopara halstedii" (sunflower downy mildew) isolates of several races

Phenotypic variation (morphological and pathogenic characters), and genetic variability were studied in 50 isolates of seven Plasmopara halstedii (sunflower downy mildew) races 100, 300, 304, 314, 710, 704 and 714. There were significant morphological, aggressiveness, and genetic differences for pathogen isolates. However, there was no relationship between morphology of zoosporangia and sporangiophores and pathogenic and genetic characteristics for the races used in our study. Also, our results provided evidence that no relation between pathogenic traits and multilocus haplotypes may be established in P. halstedii. The hypothesis explaining the absence of relationships among phenotypic and genetic characteristics is discussed.