907 resultados para Weighted regression


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The Weyburn Oil Field, Saskatchewan is the site of a large (5000 tonnes/day of CO2) CO2-EOR injection project By EnCana Corporation. Pre- and post-injection samples (Baseline and Monitor-1, respectively) of produced fluids from approximately 45 vertical wells were taken and chemically analyzed to determine changes in the fluid chemistry and isotope composition between August 2000 and March 2001. After 6 months of CO2 injection, geochemical parameters including pH, [HCO3], [Ca], [Mg], and ?13CO2(g) point to areas in which injected CO2 dissolution and reservoir carbonate mineral dissolution have occurred. Pre-injection fluid compositions suggest that the reservoir brine in the injection area may be capable of storing as much as 100 million tonnes of dissolved CO2. Modeling of water-rock reactions show that clay minerals and feldspar, although volumetrically insignificant, may be capable of acting as pH buffers, allowing injected CO2 to be stored as bicarbonate in the formation water or as newly precipitated carbonate minerals, given favorable reaction kinetics.

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High-resolution palynological analysis on annually laminated sediments of Sihailongwan Maar Lake (SHL) provides new insights into the Holocene vegetation and climate dynamics of NE China. The robust chronology of the presented record is based on varve counting and AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial plant macro-remains. In addition to the qualitative interpretation of the pollen data, we provide quantitative reconstructions of vegetation and climate based on the method of biomization and weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS) technique, respectively. Power spectra were computed to investigate the frequency domain distribution of proxy signals and potential natural periodicities. Pollen assemblages, pollen-derived biome scores and climate variables as well as the cyclicity pattern indicate that NE China experienced significant changes in temperature and moisture conditions during the Holocene. Within the earliest phase of the Holocene, a large-scale reorganization of vegetation occurred, reflecting the reconstructed shift towards higher temperatures and precipitation values and the initial Holocene strengthening and northward expansion of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Afterwards, summer temperatures remain at a high level, whereas the reconstructed precipitation shows an increasing trend until approximately 4000 cal. yr BP. Since 3500 cal. yr BP, temperature and precipitation values decline, indicating moderate cooling and weakening of the EASM. A distinct periodicity of 550-600 years and evidence of a Mid-Holocene transition from a temperature-triggered to a predominantly moisture-triggered climate regime are derived from the power spectra analysis. The results obtained from SHL are largely consistent with other palaeoenvironmental records from NE China, substantiating the regional nature of the reconstructed vegetation and climate patterns. However, the reconstructed climate changes contrast with the moisture evolution recorded in S China and the mid-latitude (semi-)arid regions of N China. Whereas a clear insolation-related trend of monsoon intensity over the Holocene is lacking from the SHL record, variations in the coupled atmosphere-Pacific Ocean system can largely explain the reconstructed changes in NE China.

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To address growing concern over the effects of fisheries non-target catch on elasmobranchs worldwide, the accurate reporting of elasmobranch catch is essential. This requires data on a combination of measures, including reported landings, retained and discarded non-target catch, and post-discard survival. Identification of the factors influencing discard vs. retention is needed to improve catch estimates and to determine wasteful fishing practices. To do this we compared retention rates of elasmobranch non-target catch in a broad subset of fisheries throughout the world by taxon, fishing country, and gear. A regression tree and random forest analysis indicated that taxon was the most important determinant of retention in this dataset, but all three factors together explained 59% of the variance. Estimates of total elasmobranch removals were calculated by dividing the FAO global elasmobranch landings by average retention rates and suggest that total elasmobranch removals may exceed FAO reported landings by as much as 400%. This analysis is the first effort to directly characterize global drivers of discards for elasmobranch non-target catch. Our results highlight the importance of accurate quantification of retention and discard rates to improve assessments of the potential impacts of fisheries on these species.

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Atoll islands are subject to a variety of processes that influence their geomorphological development. Analysis of historical shoreline changes using remotely sensed images has become an efficient approach to both quantify past changes and estimate future island response. However, the detection of long-term changes in beach width is challenging mainly for two reasons: first, data availability is limited for many remote Pacific islands. Second, beach environments are highly dynamic and strongly influenced by seasonal or episodic shoreline oscillations. Consequently, remote-sensing studies on beach morphodynamics of atoll islands deal with dynamic features covered by a low sampling frequency. Here we present a study of beach dynamics for nine islands on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea, over a seven-decade period. A considerable chronological gap between aerial photographs and satellite images was addressed by applying a new method that reweighted positions of the beach limit by identifying "outlier" shoreline positions. On top of natural beach variability observed along the reweighted beach sections, we found that one third of the analyzed islands show a statistically significant decrease in reweighted beach width since 1943. The total loss of beach area for all islands corresponds to 44% of the initial beach area. Variable shoreline trajectories suggest that changes in beach width on Takú Atoll are dependent on local control (that is, human activity and longshore sediment transport). Our results show that remote imagery with a low sampling frequency may be sufficient to characterize prominent morphological changes in planform beach configuration of reef islands.

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A mid-Holocene climate optimum is inferred from a palaeosalinity reconstruction of a closed saline lake (Beall Lake) from the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica using an expanded diatom salinity weighted averaging (WA) regression and calibration model. The addition of 14 lakes and ponds from the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica, to an existing weighted averaging regression and calibration palaeosalinity model of 33 lakes from the Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica expands the number of taxa and lakes and the range of salinity in the existing model and improves the model's predictive ability. This improved model was used to infer Holocene changes in lake water salinity in Beall Lake, Windmill Islands. Six changes in diatom-inferred salinity in Beall Lake are put into broad chronological context based on three radiocarbon dates: as the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) retreated from the Windmill Islands during the early Holocene (~9000-8130 corr. yr BP), Beall Lake formed as a melt water-fed freshwater lake, which gradually became more saline as marine influence increased from ~8000 corr. yr BP. Between ~8000 and 4800 corr. yr BP, the diatom assemblage included planktonic marine taxa such as Chaetoceros spp. and cryophilic taxa such as Fragilariopsis cylindrus, which indicate favourable summer growth conditions. A mid-Holocene warm period produced a climate that was warmer and more humid with increased precipitation and snow accumulation. This is reflected in the Beall Lake core as a reduction in the salinity of the lake diatom assemblage from ~4800-4600 corr. yr BP. Holocene isostatic uplift rates in the Windmill Islands vary from 5-6 m/1000 yr. By applying this uplift rate, it is calculated that the bedrock would have risen above sea level by ~4000 yr BP. The Beall Lake core diatom assemblage from ~4600-2900 corr. yr BP includes both marine cryophilic and planktonic taxa together with freshwater benthic and planktonic lacustrine taxa. This mix of species indicates the emergence of the lake from the sea around ~4600 corr. yr BP. From ~2800 corr. yr BP, retreat of the ice margin led to increasing melt water inputs and associated freshening of the lake basin until ~1900 corr. yr BP. The lake basin had no oceanic influence by this time, allowing a terrestrial freshwater flora to establish and thrive for the next ~1000 yr. At ~1850 corr. yr BP, a sudden and rapid salinity change is evident in Beall Lake. A late Holocene warm period between 2000 and 1000 yr BP has been observed in ice core records from Law Dome (an ice cap abutting the Windmill Islands to the east and north). It is therefore inferred that, at ~1850 corr. yr BP, summer temperatures within the Beall Lake catchment area were much higher than present summer temperatures. The climate optimum identified in the Beall Lake core ~4800 yr BP confirms mid-Holocene warming of the Windmill Islands and suggests a synchronous mid-Holocene climate optimum occurred across coastal East Antarctica. In addition, the abrupt climate change inferred at ~1850 yr BP suggests that higher resolution sampling of sediment cores from coastal East Antarctic limnological oases will provide more evidence of rapid climate change events over coastal East Antarctica in future.