Climate change and Indian forests

An assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the global dynamic vegetation model IBIS for A1B scenario is conducted for short-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) periods. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modelling, vulnerable forested regions of India have been identified to assist in planning adaptation interventions. The assessment of climate impacts showed that at the national level, about 45% of the forested grids is projected to undergo change. Vulnerability assessment showed that such vulnerable forested grids are spread across India. However, their concentration is higher in the upper Himalayan stretches, parts of Central India, northern Western Ghats and the Eastern Ghats. In contrast, the northeastern forests, southern Western Ghats and the forested regions of eastern India are estimated to be the least vulnerable. Low tree density, low biodiversity status as well as higher levels of fragmentation, in addition to climate change, contribute to the vulnerability of these forests. The mountainous forests (sub-alpine and alpine forest, the Himalayan dry temperate forest and the Himalayan moist temperate forest) are susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. This is because climate change is predicted to be larger for regions that have greater elevations.

Climate change vulnerability profiles for North East India

Climate change vulnerability profiles are developed at the district level for agriculture, water and forest sectors for the North East region of India for the current and projected future climates. An index-based approach was used where a set of indicators that represent key sectors of vulnerability (agriculture, forest, water) is selected using the statistical technique principal component analysis. The impacts of climate change on key sectors as represented by the changes in the indicators were derived from impact assessment models. These impacted indicators were utilized for the calculation of the future vulnerability to climate change. Results indicate that majority of the districts in North East India are subject to climate induced vulnerability currently and in the near future. This is a first of its kind study that exhibits ranking of districts of North East India on the basis of the vulnerability index values. The objective of such ranking is to assist in: (i) identifying and prioritizing the most vulnerable sectors and districts; (ii) identifying adaptation interventions, and (iii) mainstreaming adaptation in development programmes.

Volume Change Behaviour of Soil Influenced with Sulfuric Acid

The paper brings out the role of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) on the volume change behaviour of natural black cotton soil with 1N sulfuric acid (H2SO4) as pore fluid. Natural black cotton soil contained predominantly montmorillonite [Ca0.2(Al,Mg)2Si4 O10 (OH)2 .4H2O] along with other minerals such as amesite [(Mg Fe)2 Al (Si Al)2 O5 (OH)4], kalsilite [KAlSiO4] and quartz [SiO2]. The calcitic soil, reacted with H2SO4 during consolidation testing, showed the presence of the new mineral yavapaiite [K Fe(SO4)2]. Consequently, the carbonate soil treated with 1N H2SO4 led to higher swell at seating load and more compression upon loading than the soil with no carbonate. The swelling increased with increase in the amount of carbonate present in the soil.

Volume Change behaviour in Calcitic Soil influenced with Sulphuric Acid using Artificial Neural Networks

This paper elucidates the methodology of applying artificial neural network model (ANNM) to predict the percent swell of calcitic soil in sulphuric acid solutions, a complex phenomenon involving many parameters. Swell data required for modelling is experimentally obtained using conventional oedometer tests under nominal surcharge. The phases in ANN include optimal design of architecture, operation and training of architecture. The designed optimal neural model (3-5-1) is a fully connected three layer feed forward network with symmetric sigmoid activation function and trained by the back propagation algorithm to minimize a quadratic error criterion.The used model requires parameters such as duration of interaction, calcite mineral content and acid concentration for prediction of swell. The observed strong correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.9979) between the values determined by the experiment and predicted using the developed model demonstrates that the network can provide answers to complex problems in geotechnical engineering.

Effect of strain path change on the evolution of texture and microstructure during rolling of copper and nickel

The effect of strain path change during rolling has been investigated for copper and nickel using X-ray diffraction and electron back scatter diffraction as well as crystal plasticity simulations. Four different strain paths namely: (i) unidirectional rolling; (ii) reverse rolling; (iii) two-step cross rolling and (iv) multi-step cross rolling were employed to decipher the effect of strain path change on the evolution of deformation texture and microstructure. The cross rolled samples showed weaker texture with a prominent Bs {1 1 0}< 1 1 2 > and P(B(ND)) {1 1 0}< 1 1 1 > component in contrast to the unidirectional and reverse rolled samples where strong S {1 2 3}< 6 3 4 > and Cu {1 1 2}< 1 1 1 > components were formed. This was more pronounced for copper samples compared to nickel. The cross rolled samples were characterized by lower anisotropy and Taylor factor as well as less variation in Lankford parameter. Viscoplastic self-consistent simulations indicated that slip activity on higher number of octahedral slip systems can explain the weaker texture as well as reduced anisotropy in the cross rolled samples. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimizing Delay in Sequential Change Detection on Ad Hoc Wireless Sensor Networks

We consider the classical problem of sequential detection of change in a distribution (from hypothesis 0 to hypothesis 1), where the fusion centre receives vectors of periodic measurements, with the measurements being i.i.d. over time and across the vector components, under each of the two hypotheses. In our problem, the sensor devices ("motes") that generate the measurements constitute an ad hoc wireless network. The motes contend using a random access protocol (such as CSMA/CA) to transmit their measurement packets to the fusion centre. The fusion centre waits for vectors of measurements to accumulate before taking decisions. We formulate the optimal detection problem, taking into account the network delay experienced by the vectors of measurements, and find that, under periodic sampling, the detection delay decouples into network delay and decision delay. We obtain a lower bound on the network delay, and propose a censoring scheme, where lagging sensors drop their delayed observations in order to mitigate network delay. We show that this scheme can achieve the lower bound. This approach is explored via simulation. We also use numerical evaluation and simulation to study issues such as: the optimal sampling rate for a given number of sensors, and the optimal number of sensors for a given measurement rate

River water quality response under hypothetical climate change scenarios in Tunga-Bhadra river, India

Analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow by perturbing the climate inputs has been a concern for many authors in the past few years, but there are few analyses for the impacts on water quality. To examine the impact of change in climate variables on the water quality parameters, the water quality input variables have to be perturbed. The primary input variables that can be considered for such an analysis are streamflow and water temperature, which are affected by changes in precipitation and air temperature, respectively. Using hypothetical scenarios to represent both greenhouse warming and streamflow changes, the sensitivity of the water quality parameters has been evaluated under conditions of altered river flow and river temperature in this article. Historical data analysis of hydroclimatic variables is carried out, which includes flow duration exceedance percentage (e.g. Q90), single low- flow indices (e.g. 7Q10, 30Q10) and relationships between climatic variables and surface variables. For the study region of Tunga-Bhadra river in India, low flows are found to be decreasing and water temperatures are found to be increasing. As a result, there is a reduction in dissolved oxygen (DO) levels found in recent years. Water quality responses of six hypothetical climate change scenarios were simulated by the water quality model, QUAL2K. A simple linear regression relation between air and water temperature is used to generate the scenarios for river water temperature. The results suggest that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause impairment in water quality. It was found that there is a significant decrease in DO levels due to the impact of climate change on temperature and flows, even when the discharges were at safe permissible levels set by pollution control agencies (PCAs). The necessity to improve the standards of PCA and develop adaptation policies for the dischargers to account for climate change is examined through a fuzzy waste load allocation model developed earlier. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Support Vector Machine Approach to Downscale Precipitation in Climate Change Scenarios

Concern over changes in global climate has increased in recent years with improvement in understanding of atmospheric dynamics and growth in evidence of climate link to long‐term variability in hydrologic records. Climate impact studies rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. Towards this, the past decade has witnessed significant progress in development of downscaling models to cascade the climate information provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) at coarse spatial resolution to the scale relevant for hydrologic studies. While a plethora of downscaling models have been applied successfully to mid‐latitude regions, a few studies are available on tropical regions where the atmosphere is known to have more complex behavior. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling to interpret climate change signals provided by GCMs over tropical regions of India. Climate variables affecting spatio‐temporal variation of precipitation at each meteorological sub‐division of India are identified. Following this, cluster analysis is applied on climate data to identify the wet and dry seasons in each year. The data pertaining to climate variables and precipitation of each meteorological sub‐division is then used to develop SVM based downscaling model for each season. Subsequently, the SVM based downscaling model is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological inputs to the meteorological sub‐divisions. The results obtained from the SVM downscaling model are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India.

Climate change and crop yields in the Indian Cardamom Hills, 1978-2007 CE

In this study we analyzed climate and crop yields data from Indian cardamom hills for the period 1978-2007 to investigate whether there were significant changes in weather elements, and if such changes have had significant impact on the production of spices and plantation crops. Spatial and temporal variations in air temperatures (maximum and minimum), rainfall and relative humidity are evident across stations. The mean air temperature increased significantly during the last 30 years; the greatest increase and the largest significant upward trend was observed in the daily temperature. The highest increase in minimum temperature was registered for June (0.37A degrees C/18 years) at the Myladumpara station. December and January showed greater warming across the stations. Rainfall during the main monsoon months (June-September) showed a downward trend. Relative humidity showed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, at the cardamom and tea growing tracts. The warming trend coupled with frequent wet and dry spells during the summer is likely to have a favorable effect on insect pests and disease causing organisms thereby pesticide consumption can go up both during excess rainfall and drought years. The incidence of many minor pest insects and disease pathogens has increased in the recent years of our study along with warming. Significant and slight increases in the yield of small cardamom (Elettaria cardamomum M.) and coffee (Coffea arabica), respectively, were noticed in the recent years.; however the improvement of yield in tea (Thea sinensis) and black pepper (Piper nigrum L.) has not been seen in our analysis.