A fuzzy Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.

Early motor and electrophysiological changes in transgenic mouse model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and gender differences on clinical outcome

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive degenerative disorder affecting motoneurons and the SOD1(G93A) transgenic mice are widely employed to study disease physiopathology and therapeutic strategies. Despite the cellular and biochemical evidences of an early motor system dysfunction, the conventional behavioral tests do not detect early motor impairments in SOD1 mouse model. We evaluated early changes in motor behavior of ALS mice by doing the analyses of tail elevation, footprint, automatic recording of motor activities by means of an infrared motion sensor activity system and electrophysiological measurements in male and female wild-type (WT) and SOD1(G93A) mice from postnatal day (P) 20 up to endpoint. The classical evaluations of mortality, weight loss, tremor, rotometer, hanging wire and inclined plane were also employed. There was a late onset (after P90) of the impairments of classical parameters and the outcome varied between genders of ALS mice, being tremor, cumulative survival, weight loss and neurological score about 10 days earlier in male than female ALS mice and also about 20 days earlier in ALS males regarding rotarod and hanging wire performances. While diminution of hindpaw base was 10 days earlier in ALS males (P110) compared to females, the steep length decreased 40 days earlier in ALS females (P60) than ALS males. The automatic analysis of motor impairments showed substantial late changes (after P90) of motility and locomotion in the ALS females, but not in the ALS males. It was surprising that the scores of tail elevation were already decreased in ALS males and females by P40, reaching the minimal values at the endpoint. The electrophysiological analyses showed early changes of measures in the ALS mouse sciatic nerve, i.e., decreased values of amplitude (P40) and nerve conduction velocity (P20), and also an increased latency (P20) reaching maximal level of impairments at the late disease phase. The early changes were not accompanied by reductions of neuronal protein markers of neurofilament 200 and ChAT in the ventral part of the lumbar spinal cord of P20 and P60 ALS mice by means of Western blot technique, despite remarkable decreases of those protein levels in P120 ALS mice. In conclusion, early changes of motor behavior and electrophysiological parameters in ALS mouse model must be taken into attention in the analyses of disease mechanisms and therapeutic effects. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Histologic Study of Perifascial Areolar Tissue Implanted in Rabbit Vocal Folds: An Experimental Study

Objectives: Perifascial areolar tissue (PAT) consists of loose areolar tissue with viscoelastic properties that are similar to those found in tissues in the superficial layer of the vocal fold. The aim of this study was to quantify the inflammatory process and the collagen content of the graft, as well as that of the host tissue, after placement of a strip of PAT into the rabbit vocal fold. Methods: Surgeries were performed on 30 rabbits. The grafts were implanted in pockets that were surgically created in the right vocal fold. The left vocal fold (control group) was subjected only to surgical manipulation. The animals were divided into 3 groups for evaluations at 15 days, 3 months, and 6 months, and their larynx tissues were subsequently reviewed by histology. Results: The grafts were characterized by disorganized and thick collagen bundles and were identified in all study groups. The collagen density stayed constant over time. There was an acute inflammatory response induced by the graft at 15 clays that did not exist in the specimens taken at 3 and 6 months. Deposition of collagen fibers in the lamina propria was observed starting at 15 days after the operation and was more intense in the experimental vocal fold than in the control vocal fold. Conclusions: Our findings indicated that PAT has a low tendency for promoting an inflammatory response. However, there was a loss of the original architecture of the graft tissue and a greater deposition of collagen in the implanted vocal folds than in the control group.

Development of an animal model for endometrial ablation using trichloroacetic acid

Objective: To develop an animal model of endometrial ablation, and to evaluate the histologic effects of trichloroacetic acid (TCA) in the uterine cavity. Design: Experimental prospective. Setting: Department of gynecology. Patient(s): Thirty female adult rats. Intervention(s): Animals were submitted to injection of TCA in one uterine horn and saline solution in the other. Group 1 was sacrificed the day after the procedure. Group 2 was sacrificed in phase of diestrus. Superficial epithelia of the endometrium, stromal thickness, endometrial glands, and myometrium thickness were compared among the uterine horns of the same rats of group 1. The same evaluation was performed in group 2. Endometrial regeneration was evaluated. Main Outcome Measure(s): Histologic effects. Result(s): In group 1, histologic parameters showed endometrial destruction on TCA injected uterine horn. In group 2, four rats died after the procedure, and six rats had no viable material. In the rest of the group, TCA-injected uterine horns showed endometrial destruction. Superficial epithelia of the endometrium and stromal thickness were similar between TCA uterine horn from groups. However, the number of endometrial glands was higher in group 1. Conclusion(s): The study developed an experimental model for endometrial ablation. TCA acid is a potent agent for endometrial ablation in rat model. No endometrial regeneration was observed after recovery of cycle. (Fertil Steril (R) 2011; 95: 2418-21. (C) 2011 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

Model-Predicted Performance of Second-Trimester Down Syndrome Screening With Sonographic Prenasal Thickness

Objective. The purpose of this study was to estimate the Down syndrome detection and false-positive rates for second-trimester sonographic prenasal thickness (PT) measurement alone and in combination with other markers. Methods. Multivariate log Gaussian modeling was performed using numerical integration. Parameters for the PT distribution, in multiples of the normal gestation-specific median (MoM), were derived from 105 Down syndrome and 1385 unaffected pregnancies scanned at 14 to 27 weeks. The data included a new series of 25 cases and 535 controls combined with 4 previously published series. The means were estimated by the median and the SDs by the 10th to 90th range divided by 2.563. Parameters for other markers were obtained from the literature. Results. A log Gaussian model fitted the distribution of PT values well in Down syndrome and unaffected pregnancies. The distribution parameters were as follows: Down syndrome, mean, 1.334 MoM; log(10) SD, 0.0772; unaffected pregnancies, 0.995 and 0.0752, respectively. The model-predicted detection rates for 1%, 3%, and 5% false-positive rates for PT alone were 35%, 51%, and 60%, respectively. The addition of PT to a 4 serum marker protocol increased detection by 14% to 18% compared with serum alone. The simultaneous sonographic measurement of PT and nasal bone length increased detection by 19% to 26%, and with a third sonographic marker, nuchal skin fold, performance was comparable with first-trimester protocols. Conclusions. Second-trimester screening with sonographic PT and serum markers is predicted to have a high detection rate, and further sonographic markers could perform comparably with first-trimester screening protocols.

A selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor suppresses the growth of endometriosis with an antiangiogenic effect in a rat model

Objective: To analyze the antiangiogenic effects of the selective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitor parecoxib on the growth of endometrial implants in a rat model of peritoneal endometriosis. Design: Pharmacologic interventions in an experimental model of peritoneal endometriosis. Setting: Research laboratory in the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Animal(s): Twenty female Sprague-Dawley rats with experimentally induced endometriosis. Intervention(s): After implantation and establishment of autologous endometrium onto the peritoneum abdominal wall, rats were randomized into groups and treated with parecoxib or the vehicle by IM injection for 30 days. Main Outcome Measure(s): Vascular density, the expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and its receptor Flk-1, the distribution of activated macrophages, the expression of COX-2, and the prostaglandin concentration in the endometriotic lesions treated with parecoxib were analyzed. Result(s): The treatment significantly decreased the implant size, and histologic examination indicated mostly atrophy and regression. A reduction in microvessel density and in the number of macrophages, associated with decreased expression of VEGF and Flk-1, also were observed. The treatment group showed a low concentration of prostaglandin E(2). Conclusion(s): These results suggest that the use of COX-2 selective inhibitors could be effective to suppress the establishment and growth of endometriosis, partially through their antiangiogenic activity. (Fertil Steril (R) 2010; 93: 2674-9. (C) 2010 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

Application of fibrin glue in microvascular anastomoses: Comparative analysis with the conventional suture technique using a free flap model

Background: Several studies have already reported the utilization of fibrin glue in microvascular anastomoses to minimize the number of sutures and to decrease the operative time. Despite the good results obtained in most of these experiments, its clinical application has not launched. The aim of this study was to clarify the controversies around the safeness of fibrin glue application in microvascular anastomoses, and also to demonstrate the potential benefits of fibrin glue application in a realistic free flap model. Methods: Twenty-seven rabbits were used in this study The experimental model consisted of a free groin flap transfer to the anterior cervical region. The flap`s circulation was restored by means of an end-to-side anastomosis between the femoral and carotid arteries, and an end-to-end anastomosis between the femoral and external jugular veins. The animals were divided into two groups (n = 10) according to the anastomosis technique: Group I (conventional suture) and group 11 (fibrin glue). Results: The number of sutures required to complete the arterial and venous anastomoses was reduced in 39 and 37% in group 11, respectively. Despite this reduction, the anastomoses maintained adequate patency rates and mechanical strength. Both arterial and venous anastomoses benefited from fibrin glue application, which made them easier and faster to perform. The flaps` ischemic time and the total operative time were also significantly shortened. Conclusions: In this study, the application of fibrin glue in microvascular anastomoses was safe and reliable. The risk-benefit ratio of fibrin glue application in microvascular anastomoses is favorable for its use. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Total Exposure and Exposure Rate Effects for Alcohol and Smoking and Risk of Head and Neck Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Case-Control Studies

Although cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption increase risk for head and neck cancers, there have been few attempts to model risks quantitatively and to formally evaluate cancer site-specific risks. The authors pooled data from 15 case-control studies and modeled the excess odds ratio (EOR) to assess risk by total exposure (pack-years and drink-years) and its modification by exposure rate (cigarettes/day and drinks/day). The smoking analysis included 1,761 laryngeal, 2,453 pharyngeal, and 1,990 oral cavity cancers, and the alcohol analysis included 2,551 laryngeal, 3,693 pharyngeal, and 3,116 oval cavity cancers, with over 8,000 controls. Above 15 cigarettes/day, the EOR/pack-year decreased with increasing cigarettes/day, suggesting that greater cigarettes/day for a shorter duration was less deleterious than fewer cigarettes/day for a longer duration. Estimates of EOR/pack-year were homogeneous across sites, while the effects of cigarettes/day varied, indicating that the greater laryngeal cancer risk derived from differential cigarettes/day effects and not pack-years. EOR/drink-year estimates increased through 10 drinks/day, suggesting that greater drinks/day for a shorter duration was more deleterious than fewer drinks/day for a longer duration. Above 10 drinks/day, data were limited. EOR/drink-year estimates varied by site, while drinks/day effects were homogeneous, indicating that the greater pharyngeal/oral cavity cancer risk with alcohol consumption derived from the differential effects of drink-years and not drinks/day.

Regional gray matter abnormalities in panic disorder: A voxel-based morphometry study

Although abnonnalities in brain structures involved in the neurobiology of fear and anxiety have been implicated in the pathophysiology of panic disorder (PD), relatively few studies have made use of voxel-based morphometry (VBM) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to determine structural brain abnormalities in PD. We have assessed gray matter volume in 19 PD patients and 20 healthy volunteers using VBM. Images were acquired using a 1.5 T MRI scanner, and were spatially normalized and segmented using optimized VBM. Statistical comparisons were performed using the general linear model. A relative increase in gay matter volume was found in the left insula of PD patients compared with controls. Additional structures showing differential increases were the left superior temporal gyrus, the midbrain, and the pons. A relative gray matter deficit was found in the right anterior cingulate cortex. The insula and anterior cingulate abnormalities may be relevant to the pathophysiology of PD, since these structures participate in the evaluation process that ascribes negative emotional meaning to potentially distressing cognitive and interoceptive sensory information. The abnormal brain stem structures may be involved in the generation of panic attacks. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pulmonary lesion induced by low and high positive end-expiratory pressure levels during protective ventilation in experimental acute lung injury

Objective: To investigate the effects of low and high levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP), without recruitment maneuvers, during lung protective ventilation in an experimental model of acute lung injury (ALI). Design: Prospective, randomized, and controlled experimental study. Setting: University research laboratory. Subjects: Wistar rats were randomly assigned to control (C) [saline (0.1 ml), intraperitoneally] and ALI [paraquat (15 mg/kg), intra peritoneally] groups. Measurements and Main Results: After 24 hours, each group was further randomized into four groups (six rats each) at different PEEP levels = 1.5, 3, 4.5, or 6 cm H(2)O and ventilated with a constant tidal volume (6 mL/kg) and open thorax. Lung mechanics [static elastance (Est, L) and viscoelastic pressure (Delta P2, L)] and arterial blood gases were measured before (Pre) and at the end of 1-hour mechanical ventilation (Post). Pulmonary histology (light and electron microscopy) and type III procollagen (PCIII) messenger RNA (mRNA) expression were measured after 1 hour of mechanical ventilation. In ALI group, low and high PEEP levels induced a greater percentage of increase in Est, L (44% and 50%) and Delta P2, L (56% and 36%) in Post values related to Pre. Low PEEP yielded alveolar collapse whereas high PEEP caused overdistension and atelectasis, with both levels worsening oxygenation and increasing PCIII mRNA expression. Conclusions: In the present nonrecruited ALI model, protective mechanical ventilation with lower and higher PEEP levels than required for better oxygenation increased Est, L and Delta P2, L, the amount of atelectasis, and PCIII mRNA expression. PEEP selection titrated for a minimum elastance and maximum oxygenation may prevent lung injury while deviation from these settings may be harmful. (Crit Care Med 2009; 37:1011-1017)

Inducible nitric oxide synthase inhibition attenuates lung tissue responsiveness and remodeling in a model of chronic pulmonary inflammation in guinea pigs

We evaluated the influence of iNOS-derived NO on the mechanics, inflammatory, and remodeling process in peripheral lung parenchyma of guinea pigs with chronic pulmonary allergic inflammation. Animals treated or not with 1400W were submitted to seven exposures of ovalbumin in increasing doses. Seventy-two hours after the 7th inhalation, lung strips were suspended in a Krebs organ bath, and tissue resistance and elastance measured at baseline and after ovalbumin challenge. The strips were submitted to histopathological measurements. The ovalbumin-exposed animals showed increased maximal responses of resistance and elastance (p < 0.05), eosinophils counting (p < 0.001), iNOS-positive cells (p < 0.001), collagen and elastic fiber deposition (p < 0.05), actin density (p < 0.05) and 8-iso-PGF2 alpha expression (p < 0.001) in alveolar septa compared to saline-exposed ones. Ovalbumin-exposed animals treated with 1400 W had a significant reduction in lung functional and histopathological findings (p < 0.05). We showed that iNOS-specific inhibition attenuates lung parenchyma constriction, inflammation, and remodeling, suggesting NO-participation in the modulation of the oxidative stress pathway. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Different strains of mice present distinct lung tissue mechanics and extracellular matrix composition in a model of chronic allergic asthma

The impact of genetic factors on asthma is well recognized but poorly understood. We tested the hypothesis that different mouse strains present different lung tissue strip mechanics in a model of chronic allergic asthma and that these mechanical differences may be potentially related to changes of extracellular matrix composition and/or contractile elements in lung parenchyma. Oscillatory mechanics were analysed before and after acetylcholine (ACh) in C57BL/10, BALB/c, and A/J mice, subjected or not to ovalbumin sensitization and challenge. In controls, tissue elastance (E) and resistance (R), collagen and elastic fibres` content, and alpha-actin were higher in A/J compared to BALB/c mice, which, in turn, were more elevated than in C57BL/10. A similar response pattern was observed in ovalbumin-challenged animals irrespective of mouse strain. E and R augmented more in ovalbumin-challenged A/J [E: 22%, R: 18%] than C57BL/10 mice [E: 9.4%, R: 11 %] after ACh In conclusion, lung parenchyma remodelled differently yielding distinct in vitro mechanics according to mouse strain. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.