Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Contribution of cholinergic systems to state-dependent modulation of respiratory control

Respiration is altered during different stages of the sleep-wake cycle. We review the contribution of cholinergic systems to this alteration, with particular reference to the role of muscarinic acetylcholine receptors (MAchRs) during rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. Available evidence demonstrates that MAchRs have potent excitatory effects on medullary respiratory neurones and respiratory motoneurones, and are likely to contribute to changes in central chemosensitive drive to the respiratory control system. These effects are likely to be most prominent during REM sleep, when cholinergic brainstem neurones show peak activity levels. It is possible that MAchR dysfunction is involved in sleep-disordered breathing, Such as obstructive sleep apnea. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of Metalaxyl Resistance and Cultivar Resistance on Control of Phytophthora nicotianae in Tobacco

Phytophthora nicotianae is a devastating root and stem pathogen of tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) in South Africa. Growers strive to control the resulting disease, known as black shank, with metalaxyl treatments and resistant cultivars. The aim of this study was to consider whether development of metalaxyl resistance in P. nicotianae has contributed to poor disease control and if recently developed cultivars with high levels of resistance require metalaxyl for effective control. One hundred and thirty-two isolates of P. nicotianae were screened for sensitivity to metalaxyl. P. nicotianae isolates from most tobacco farms were metalaxyl sensitive. Growth of most isolates was inhibited completely at 1.0 μg a.i./ml. However, isolates from the MKTV tobacco producing area showed EC50 values ranging from 1.02 μg a.i./ml to 3.57 μg a.i./ml. Twenty-one tobacco cultivars were planted and treated with and without metalaxyl in two different growing seasons to evaluate their resistance to P. nicotianae and the value of using metalaxyl. Hicks was the most susceptible cultivar. Vuma/3/46, LK30/40/60-1, and LK33/60 exhibited the greatest resistance to P. nicotianae. Use of metalaxyl in combination with moderately resistant cultivars such as NC60 × TL33 and LK10/80/60 effectively reduced black shank in the field. Resistant cultivars were healthy and no significant difference between metalaxyl treated and untreated plants was observed.

Control of ovulation with a GnRH agonist after superstimulation of follicular growth in buffalo: fertilization and embryo recovery

The potential to use a GnRH agonist bioimplant and injection of exogenous LH to control the time of ovulation in a multiple ovulation and embryo transfer (MOET) protocol was examined in buffalo. Mixed-parity buffalo (Bubalus bubalis; 4-15-year-old; 529 13 kg LW) were randomly assigned to one of five groups (n = 6): Group 1, conventional MOET protocol; Group 2, conventional MOET with 12 It delay in injection of PGF(2alpha); Group 3, implanted with GnRH agonist to block the pre-ovulatory surge release of LH; Group 4, implanted with GnRH agonist and injected with exogenous LH (Lutropin(R), 25 mg) 24 h after 4 days of superstimulation with FSH; Group 5, implanted with GnRH agonist and injected with LH 36 h after superstimulation with FSH. Ovarian follicular growth in all buffaloes was stimulated by treatment with FSH (Folltropin-V(R), 200 mg) administered over 4 days, and was monitored by ovarian ultrasonography. At the time of estrus, the number of follicles greater than or equal to8 mm. was greater (P < 0.05) for buffaloes in Group 2 (12.8) than for buffaloes in Groups 1 (8.5), 3 (7.3), 4 (6.1) and 5 (6.8), which did not differ. All buffaloes were mated by AI after spontaneous (Groups 1-3) or induced (Groups 4 and 5) ovulation. The respective number of buffalo that ovulated, number of corpora lutea, ovulation rate (%), and embryos + oocytes recovered were: Group 1 (2, 1.8 +/- 1.6, 18.0 +/- 13.6, 0.2 +/- 0.2); Group 2 (4, 6.1 +/- 2.9, 40.5 +/- 17.5, 3.7 +/- 2.1); Group 3 (0, 0, 0, 0); Group 4 (6, 4.3 +/- 1.2, 69.3 +/- 14.2, 2.0 +/- 0.9); and Group 5 (1, 2.5 +/- 2.5, 15.5 +/- 15.5, 2.1 +/- 2.1). All buffaloes in Group 4 ovulated after injection of LH and had a relatively high ovulation rate (69%) and embryo recovery (46%). It has been shown that the GnRH agonist-LH protocol can be used to improve the efficiency of MOET in buffalo. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Appropriate indicators for injury control?

Indicators are valuable tools used to measure progress towards a desired health outcome. Increased awareness of the public health burden due to injury has lead to a concomitant interest in monitoring the impact of national initiatives that aim to reduce the size of the burden. Several injury indicators have now been proposed. This study examines the ability of each of the suggested indicators to reflect the nature and extent of the burden of non-fatal injury. A criterion validity, population-based, prospective cohort study was conducted in Brisbane, a sub-tropical Metropolitan City on the eastern seaboard of Australia, over a 12-month period between 1 January and 31 December 1998. Neither the presence of a long bone fracture nor the need for hospitalisation for 4 or more days were sensitive or specific indicators for 'serious' or major injury as defined by the 'Gold Standard' Injury Severity Score (ISS). Subsequent analysis, using other public health outcome measures demonstrated that the major component of the illness burden of injury was in fact due to 'minor' not serious injury. However, the suggested indicators demonstrated low sensitivity and specificity for these outcomes as well. The results of the study support the need to include at least all hospitalisations in any population-based measure of injury and not attempt to simplify the indicator to a more convenient measure aimed at identifying just those cases of,serious' injury.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Malaria vectors on Buka and Bougainville islands, Papua New Guinea

Anophelines were sampled from 82 locations oil Buka and Bougainville islands in Papua New Guinea by larval collections, carbon dioxide-baited Mosquito traps, and human biting catches. Anopheles farauti s.s. was collected in larval Surveys but infrequently in mosquito traps on both islands; on Buka Island this species was readily collected in human biting catches. Anopheles faraunti 2 was commonly collected in larval surveys on both islands however. it was not collected in either mosquito traps or human biting catches. Anopheles punctulatus was found only on Buka Island, where it was commonly collected as larvae, but rarely in human biting catches and mosquito traps. Anopheles lungae was collected Lis larvae from only I site on Bougainville. Anopheles farauti s.s. led consistently throughout the night (1900-0600 h): small peaks at midnight and dawn were not statistically significant. Of 1,156 An. farauti s.s. specimens examined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for malaria sporozoites. 20 were found to be positive: 12 were positive for Plasmodium falciparum and 8 were positive for P. vivax (247 variant = 5: 210 variant = 3). Anopheles farauti s.s. seems to be the major malaria vector on these islands, whereas An. punctulatus may play a minor role on Buka Island. Anophele farauti 2 is unlikely to be involved in malaria transmission on Buka or Bougainville islands.

Neural control of the heart: developmental changes in ionic conductances in mammalian intrinsic cardiac neurons

The expression and properties of ionic channels were investigated in dissociated neurons from neonatal and adult rat intracardiac ganglia. Changes in the hyperpolarization-activated and ATP-sensitive K+ conductances during postnatal development and their role in neuronal excitability were examined. The hyperpolarization-activated nonselective cation current, I-h, was observed in all neurons studied and displayed slow time-dependent rectification. An inwardly rectifying K+ current, I-K(I), was present in a population of neurons from adult but not neonatal rats and was sensitive to block by extracellular Ba2+. Using the perforated-patch recording configuration, an ATP-sensitive K+ (K-ATP) conductance was identified in greater than or equal to 50% of intracardiac neurons from adult rats. Levcromakalim evoked membrane hyperpolarization, which was inhibited by the sulphonylurea drugs. glibenclamide and tolbutamide. Exposure to hypoxic conditions also activated a membrane current similar to that induced by levcromakalim and was inhibited by glibenclamide. Changes in the complement of ion channels during postnatal development may underlie observed differences in the function of intracardiac ganglion neurons during maturation. Furthermore, activation of hyperpolarization-activated and KATP channels in mammalian intracardiac neurons may play a role in neural regulation of the mature heart and cardiac function during ischaemia-reperfusion. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution of vectors of Ross River virus and Barmah Forest virus on Russell Island, Moreton Bay, Queensland

We used a network of 20 carbon dioxide- and octenol-supplemented light traps to sample adult mosquitoes throughout Russell Island in southern Moreton Bay, south-east Queensland. Between February and April 2001, an estimated 1365 564 adult female mosquitoes were collected. In contrast to an average catch of 9754 female mosquitoes per trap night on Russell Island, reference traps set on Macleay Island and on the mainland returned average catches of 3172 and 222, respectively. On Russell Island, Ochlerotatus vigilax (Skuse), Coquillettidia linealis (Skuse), Culex annulirostris Skuse and Verrallina funerea (Theobald), known or suspected vectors of Ross River (RR) and/or Barmah Forest (BF) viruses, comprised 89.6% of the 25 taxa collected. When the spatial distributions of the above species were mapped and analysed using local spatial statistics, all were found to be present in highest numbers towards the southern end of the island during most of the 7 weeks. This indicated the presence of more suitable adult harbourage sites and/or suboptimal larval control efficacy. As immature stages and the breeding habitat of Cq. linealis are as yet undescribed, this species in particular presents a considerable impediment to proposed development scenarios. The method presented here of mapping the numbers of mosquitoes throughout a local government area allows specific areas that have high vector numbers to be defined.

Vector competence of Coquillettidia linealis (Skuse) (Diptera : Culicidae) for Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses

Coquillettidia linealis is a severe pest on some of the Moreton Bay islands in Queensland, Australia, but little is known of its breeding habitats and biology. Because of its high abundance and its association with Ross River (RR) and Barmah Forest (BF) viruses by field isolation, its vector competence was evaluated in the laboratory by feeding dilutions of both viruses in blood. For RR, Cq. linealis was of comparable efficiency to Ochlerotatus vigilax (Skuse), recognised as being a major vector. Results were as follows for Cq. linealis and Oc. vigilax , respectively: dose to infect 50%, 10(2.2) and