Current and future variations of nutrient depositions and influences on tree growth

Current nutrient deposition shows episodic variations which likely may impact the local nutrient cycle at the RBSF. Comparing analyses of deposition data during present-day atmospheric circulation and phases of high biomass burning in the Amazon, characteristic relationships between remote emissions and local deposition are determined. By using projections drawn from the special report on emission scenarios (SRES) in combination with a trajectory modeling tool, future nutrient deposition conditions of the mountain ecosystem are assessed. Observations of relations between climatic variables, current time series of nutrient deposition, and tree growth point to an impact of the remote fertilization effect of atmospheric matters, emitted primarily by human activities like biomass burning and agricultural and industrial sources. The increasing emissions in the future may have adverse effects on the ecosystem in the long run.

The response of atmospheric nitrous oxide to climate variations during the last glacial period

Detailed insight into natural variations of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) in response to changes in the Earth's climate system is provided by new measurements along the ice core of the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP). The presented record reaches from the early Holocene back into the previous interglacial with a mean time resolution of about 75 years. Between 11 and 120 kyr BP, atmospheric N2O concentrations react substantially to the last glacial-interglacial transition (Termination 1) and millennial time scale climate variations of the last glacial period. For long-lasting Dansgaard/Oeschger (DO) events, the N2O increase precedes Greenland temperature change by several hundred years with an increase rate of about 0.8-1.3 ppbv/century, which accelerates to about 3.8-10.7 ppbv/century at the time of the rapid warming in Greenland. Within each bundle of DO events, the new record further reveals particularly low N2O concentrations at the approximate time of Heinrich events. This suggests that the response of marine and/or terrestrial N2O emissions on a global scale are different for stadials with and without Heinrich events.

Independent variations of CH₄ emissions and isotopic composition over the past 160,000 years

During the last glacial cycle, greenhouse gas concentrations fluctuated on decadal and longer timescales. Concentrations of methane, as measured in polar ice cores, show a close connection with Northern Hemisphere temperature variability, but the contribution of the various methane sources and sinks to changes in concentration is still a matter of debate. Here we assess changes in methane cycling over the past 160,000 years by measurements of the carbon isotopic composition delta C-13 of methane in Antarctic ice cores from Dronning Maud Land and Vostok. We find that variations in the delta C-13 of methane are not generally correlated with changes in atmospheric methane concentration, but instead more closely correlated to atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We interpret this to reflect a climatic and CO2-related control on the isotopic signature of methane source material, such as ecosystem shifts in the seasonally inundated tropical wetlands that produce methane. In contrast, relatively stable delta C-13 values occurred during intervals of large changes in the atmospheric loading of methane. We suggest that most methane sources-most notably tropical wetlands-must have responded simultaneously to climate changes across these periods.

Dating groundwater in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin: Understanding tracer variations in the subsurface

The northern section of the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin has been the site of intensive U exploitation with harmful impacts on groundwater quality. The understanding of groundwater flow and age distribution is crucial for the prediction of the future dispersion and impact of the contamination. State of the art tracer methods (3H, 3He, 4He, 85Kr, 39Ar and 14C) were, therefore, used to obtain insights to ageing and mixing processes of groundwater along a north–south flow line in the centre of the two most important aquifers of Cenomanian and middle Turonian age. Dating of groundwater is particularly complex in this area as: (i) groundwater in the Cenomanian aquifer is locally affected by fluxes of geogenic and biogenic gases (e.g. CO2, CH4, He) and by fossil brines in basement rocks rich in Cl and SO4; (ii) a thick unsaturated zone overlays the Turonian aquifer; (iii) a periglacial climate and permafrost conditions prevailed during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and iv) the wells are mostly screened over large depth intervals. Large disagreements in 85Kr and 3H/3He ages indicate that processes other than ageing have affected the tracer data in the Turonian aquifer. Mixing with older waters (>50 a) was confirmed by 39Ar activities. An inverse modelling approach, which included time lags for tracer transport throughout the unsaturated zone and degassing of 3He, was used to estimate the age of groundwater. Best fits between model and field results were obtained for mean residence times varying from modern up to a few hundred years. The presence of modern water in this aquifer is correlated with the occurrence of elevated pollution (e.g. nitrates). An increase of reactive geochemical indicators (e.g. Na) and radiogenic 4He, and a decrease in 14C along the flow direction confirmed groundwater ageing in the deeper confined Cenomanian aquifer. Radiocarbon ages varied from a few hundred years to more than 20 ka. Initial 14C activity for radiocarbon dating was calibrated by means of 39Ar measurements. The 14C age of a sample recharged during the LGM was further confirmed by depleted stable isotope signatures and near freezing point noble gas temperature. Radiogenic 4He accumulated in groundwater with concentrations increasing linearly with 14C ages. This enabled the use of 4He to validate the dating range of 14C and extend it to other parts of this aquifer. In the proximity of faults, 39Ar in excess of modern concentrations and 14C dead CO2 sources, elevated 3He/4He ratios and volcanic activity in Oligocene to Quaternary demonstrate the influence of gas of deeper origin and impeded the application of 4He, 39Ar and 14C for groundwater dating.

Climatic drivers of hourly to yearly tree radius variations along a 6°C natural warming gradient

Climate affects the timing, rate and dynamics of tree growth, over time scales ranging from seconds to centuries. Monitoring how a tree's stem radius varies over these time scales can provide insight into intra-annual stem dynamics and improve our understanding of climate impacts on tree physiology and growth processes. Here, we quantify the response of radial conifer stem size to environmental fluctuations via a novel assessment of tree circadian cycles. We analyze four years of sub-hourly data collected from 56 larch and spruce trees growing along a natural temperature gradient of ∼6 °C in the central Swiss Alps. During the growing season, tree stem diameters were greatest at mid-morning and smallest in the late evening, reflecting the daily cycle of water uptake and loss. Along the gradient, amplitudes calculated from the stem radius cycle were ∼50% smaller at the upper site (∼2200 m a.s.l.) relative to the lower site (∼800 m a.s.l.). We show changes in precipitation, temperature and cloud cover have a substantial effect on typical growing season diurnal cycles; amplitudes were nine times smaller on rainy days (>10 mm), and daily amplitudes are approximately 40% larger when the mean daily temperature is 15–20 °C than when it is 5–10 °C. We find that over the growing season in the sub-alpine forests, spruce show greater daily stem water movement than larch. However, under projected future warming, larch could experience up to 50% greater stem water use, which may severely affect future growth on already dry sites. Our data further indicate that because of the confounding influences of radial growth and short-term water dynamics on stem size, conventional methodology probably overstates the effect of water-linked meteorological variables (i.e. precipitation and relative humidity) on intra-annual tree growth. We suggest future studies use intra-seasonal measurements of cell development and consider whether climatic factors produce reversible changes in stem diameter. These study design elements may help researchers more accurately quantify and attribute changes in forest productivity in response to future warming.

Explaining Variations in Client Extra Costs between Software Projects Offshored to India

Gaining economic benefits from substantially lower labor costs has been reported as a major reason for offshoring labor-intensive information systems services to low-wage countries. However, if wage differences are so high, why is there such a high level of variation in the economic success between offshored IS projects? This study argues that offshore outsourcing involves a number of extra costs for the ^his paper was recommended for acceptance by Associate Guest Editor Erran Carmel. client organization that account for the economic failure of offshore projects. The objective is to disaggregate these extra costs into their constituent parts and to explain why they differ between offshored software projects. The focus is on software development and maintenance projects that are offshored to Indian vendors. A theoretical framework is developed a priori based on transaction cost economics (TCE) and the knowledge-based view of the firm, comple mented by factors that acknowledge the specific offshore context The framework is empirically explored using a multiple case study design including six offshored software projects in a large German financial service institution. The results of our analysis indicate that the client incurs post contractual extra costs for four types of activities: (1) re quirements specification and design, (2) knowledge transfer, (3) control, and (4) coordination. In projects that require a high level of client-specific knowledge about idiosyncratic business processes and software systems, these extra costs were found to be substantially higher than in projects where more general knowledge was needed. Notably, these costs most often arose independently from the threat of oppor tunistic behavior, challenging the predominant TCE logic of market failure. Rather, the client extra costs were parti cularly high in client-specific projects because the effort for managing the consequences of the knowledge asymmetries between client and vendor was particularly high in these projects. Prior experiences of the vendor with related client projects were found to reduce the level of extra costs but could not fully offset the increase in extra costs in highly client-specific projects. Moreover, cultural and geographic distance between client and vendor as well as personnel turnover were found to increase client extra costs. Slight evidence was found, however, that the cost-increasing impact of these factors was also leveraged in projects with a high level of required client-specific knowledge (moderator effect).

Correction to Variations of Ice Bed Coupling Beneath and Beyond Ice Streams: The Force Balance

A geometrical force balance that links stresses to ice bed coupling along a flow band of an ice sheet was developed in 1988 for longitudinal tension in ice streams and published 4 years later. It remains a work in progress. Now gravitational forces balanced by forces producing tensile, compressive, basal shear, and side shear stresses are all linked to ice bed coupling by the floating fraction phi of ice that produces the concave surface of ice streams. These lead inexorably to a simple formula showing how phi varies along these flow bands where surface and bed topography are known: phi = h(O)/h(I) with h(O) being ice thickness h(I) at x = 0 for x horizontal and positive upslope from grounded ice margins. This captures the basic fact in glaciology: the height of ice depends on how strongly ice couples to the bed. It shows how far a high convex ice sheet (phi = 0) has gone in collapsing into a low flat ice shelf (phi = 1). Here phi captures ice bed coupling under an ice stream and h(O) captures ice bed coupling beyond ice streams.

Variations of Ice Bed Coupling Beneath and Beyond Ice Streams: The Force Balance

A geometrical force balance that links stresses to ice bed coupling along a flow band of an ice sheet was developed in 1988 for longitudinal tension in ice streams and published 4 years later. It remains a work in progress. Now gravitational forces balanced by forces producing tensile, compressive, basal shear, and side shear stresses are all linked to ice bed coupling by the floating fraction phi of ice that produces the concave surface of ice streams. These lead inexorably to a simple formula showing how phi varies along these flow bands where surface and bed topography are known: phi = h(O)/h(I) with h(O) being ice thickness h(I) at x = 0 for x horizontal and positive upslope from grounded ice margins. This captures the basic fact in glaciology: the height of ice depends on how strongly ice couples to the bed. It shows how far a high convex ice sheet (phi = 0) has gone in collapsing into a low flat ice shelf (phi = 1). Here phi captures ice bed coupling under an ice stream and h(O) captures ice bed coupling beyond ice streams.

Variations in Ice Rafted Detritus on Beaches in the South Shetland Islands: A Possible Climate Proxy

Raised beach ridges on Livingston Island of the South Shetland Islands display variations in both quantity and source of ice rafted detritus (IRD) received over time. Whereas the modem beach exhibits little IRD, all of which is of local origin, the next highest beach (similar to250 C-14 yr BP) has large amounts, some of which comes from as far away as the Antarctic Peninsula. Significant quantities of IRD also were deposited similar to 1750 C-14 yr BP. Both time periods coincide with generally cooler regional conditions and, at least in the case of the similar to250 yr old beach, local glacial advance. We suggest that the increases in ice rafting may reflect periods of greater glacial activity, altered ocean circulation, and/or greater iceberg preservation during the late Holocene. Limited IRD and lack of far-travelled erratics on the modem beach are both consistent with the ongoing warming trend in the Antarctic Peninsula region.

Long-Term and Seasonal Variations in CO2: Linkages to Catchment Alkalinity Generation

As atmospheric emissions of S have declined in the Northern Hemisphere, there has been an expectation of increased pH and alkalinity in streams believed to have been acidified by excess S and N. Many streams and lakes have not recovered. Evidence from East Bear Brook in Maine, USA and modelling with the groundwater acid-base model MAGIC (Cosby et al. 1985a,b) indicate that seasonal and yearly variations in soil PCO2 are adequate to enhance or even reverse acid-base (alkalinity) changes anticipated from modest decreases of SO4 in surface waters. Alkalinity is generated in the soil by exchange of H+ from dissociation of H2CO3, which in turn is derived from the dissolving of soil CO2. The variation in soil PCO2 produces an alkalinity variation of up to 15 mu eq L-1 in stream water. Detecting and relating increases in alkalinity to decreases in stream SO4 are significantly more difficult in the short term because of this effect. For example, modelled alkalinity recovery at Bear Brook due to a decline of 20 mu eq SO4 L-1 in soil solution is compensated by a decline from 0.4 to 0.2% for soil air PCO2. This compensation ability decays over time as base saturation declines. Variable PCO2 has less effect in more acidic soils. Short-term decreases of PCO2 below the long-term average value produce short-term decreases in alkalinity, whereas short-term increases in PCO2 produce shortterm alkalization. Trend analysis for detecting recovery of streams and lakes from acidification after reduced atmospheric emissions will require a longer monitoring period for statistical significance than previously appreciated.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

Diurnal variations in middle-atmospheric water vapor by ground-based microwave radiometry

Abstract. In this paper, we compare the diurnal variations in middle-atmospheric water vapor as measured by two ground-based microwave radiometers in the Alpine region near Bern, Switzerland. The observational data set is also compared to data from the chemistry–climate model WACCM. Due to the small diurnal variations of usually less than 1%, averages over extended time periods are required. Therefore, two time periods of five months each, December to April and June to October, were taken for the comparison. The diurnal variations from the observational data agree well with each other in amplitude and phase. The linear correlation coefficients range from 0.8 in the upper stratosphere to 0.5 in the upper mesosphere. The observed diurnal variability is significant at all pressure levels within the sensitivity of the instruments. Comparing our observations with WACCM, we find that the agreement of the phase of the diurnal cycle between observations and model is better from December to April than from June to October. The amplitudes of the diurnal variations for both time periods increase with altitude in WACCM, but remain approximately constant at 0.05 ppm in the observations. The WACCM data are used to separate the processes that lead to diurnal variations in middle-atmospheric water vapor above Bern. The dominating processes were found to be meridional advection below 0.1 hPa, vertical advection between 0.1 and 0.02 hPa and (photo-)chemistry above 0.02 hPa. The contribution of zonal advection is small. The highest diurnal variations in water vapor as seen in the WACCM data are found in the mesopause region during the time period from June to October with diurnal amplitudes of 0.2 ppm (approximately 5% in relative units).

A climatology of the diurnal variations of stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bern, Switzerland

The ground-based radiometer GROMOS, stationed in Bern (47.95° N, 7.44° E), Switzerland, has a unique dataset: it obtains ozone profiles from November 1994 to present with a time resolution of 30 min and equal quality during night- and daytime. Here, we derive a monthly climatology of the daily ozone cycle from 17 yr of GROMOS observation. We present the diurnal ozone variation of the stratosphere and mesosphere. Characterizing the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone is important for correct trend estimates of the ozone layer derived from satellite observations. The diurnal ozone cycle from GROMOS is compared to two models: The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the Hamburg Model of Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) ozone data, from night- and daytime overpasses over Bern, have also been included in the comparison. Generally, observation and models show good qualitative agreement: in the lower mesosphere, daytime ozone is for both GROMOS and models around 25% less than nighttime ozone (reference is 22:30–01:30). In the stratosphere, ozone reaches its maximum in the afternoon showing values several percent larger than the midnight value. It is important that diurnal ozone variations of this order are taken into account when merging different data sets for the derivation of long-term ozone trends in the stratosphere. Further, GROMOS and models indicate a seasonal behavior of daily ozone variations in the stratosphere with a larger afternoon maximum during daytime in summer than in winter. At 0.35 hPa, observations from GROMOS and Aura/MLS show a seasonal pattern in diurnal ozone variations with larger relative amplitudes during daytime in winter (−25 ± 5%) than in summer (−18 ± 4%) (compared to mean values around midnight). For the first time, a time series of the diurnal variations in ozone is presented: 17 yr of GROMOS data show strong interannual variations in the diurnal ozone cycle for both the stratosphere and the mesosphere. There are some indications that strong temperature tides can suppress the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone via the anticorrelation of temperature and ozone. That means the spatio-temporal variability of solar thermal tides seems to affect the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone.