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Methods to Control for Bias in Observational Studies

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Mitochondrial control region diversity of the houbara bustard Chlamydotis undulata complex and genetic structure along the Atlantic seaboard of North Africa

The houbara bustard, Chlamydotis undulata, is a declining cryptic desert bird whose range extends from North Africa to Central Asia. Three subspecies are currently recognized by geographical distribution and morphology: C.u.fuertaventurae, C.u.undulata and C.u.macqueenii. We have sequenced 854 bp of mitochondrial control region from 73 birds to describe their population genetic structure with a particular sampling focus on the connectivity between C.u.fuertaventurae and C.u.undulata along the Atlantic seaboard of North Africa. Nucleotide and haplotypic diversity varied among the subspecies being highest in C.u.undulata, lowest in C.u.fuertaventurae and intermediate in C.u.macqueenii. C.u.fuertaventurae and C.u.undulata are paraphyletic and an average nucleotide divergence of 2.08% splits the later from C.u.macqueenii. We estimate that C.u.fuertaventurae and C.u.undulata split from C.u.macqueenii approximately 430 000 years ago. C.u.fuertaventurae and C.u.undulata are weakly differentiated (F-ST = 0.27, N-m = 1.3), indicative of a recent shared history. Archaeological evidence indicates that houbara bustards have been present on the Canary Islands for 130-170 000 years. However, our genetic data point to a more recent separation of C.u.fuertaventurae and C.u.undulata at around 20-25 000 years. Concordant archaeological, climatic opportunities for colonization and genetic data point to a scenario of: (i) initial colonization of the Canary Islands about 130 000 years ago; (ii) a period of secondary contact 19-30 000 years ago homogenizing any pre-existing genetic structure followed by; (iii) a period of relative isolation that persists today.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Pain differs from non-painful attention-demanding or stressful tasks in its effect on postural control patterns of trunk muscles

Pain changes postural activation of the trunk muscles. The cause of these changes is not known but one possibility relates to the information processing requirements and the stressful nature of pain. This study investigated this possibility by evaluating electromyographic activity (EMG) of the deep and superficial trunk muscles associated with voluntary rapid arm movement. Data were collected from control trials, trials during low back pain (LBP) elicited by injection of hypertonic saline into the back muscles, trials during a non-painful attention-demanding task, and during the same task that was also stressful. Pain did not change the reaction time (RT) of the movement, had variable effects on RT of the superficial trunk muscles, but consistently increased RT of the deepest abdominal muscle. The effect of the attention-demanding task was opposite: increased RT of the movement and the superficial trunk muscles but no effect on RT of the deep trunk muscles. Thus, activation of the deep trunk muscles occurred earlier relative to the movement. When the attention-demanding task was made stressful, the RT of the movement and superficial trunk muscles was unchanged but the RT of the deep trunk muscles was increased. Thus, the temporal relationship between deep trunk muscle activation and arm movement was restored. This means that although postural activation of the deep trunk muscles is not affected when central nervous system resources are limited, it is delayed when the individual is also under stress. However, a non-painful attention-demanding task does not replicate the effect of pain on postural control of the trunk muscles even when the task is stressful.

Hospital-based case-control study of bronchiectasis in indigenous children in central Australia

Background: Childhood pneumonia has been reported to be associated with the development of bronchiectasis but there are no case-control studies that have examined this. This study examined the relationship between hospital admission for episode(s) of pneumonia and the risk of radiologically proven bronchiectasis. Methods: A medical record-based case-control study of bronchiectasis in Indigenous children was conducted in Central Australia. Controls (183), matched to cases (61) by gender, age and year of diagnosis, were Indigenous children hospitalized with other conditions. Results: There was a strong association between a history of hospitalized pneumonia and bronchiectasis [odds ratio (OR), 15.2; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 4.4-52.7]. This was particularly evident in recurrent hospitalized pneumonia (P for trend < 0.01), severe pneumonia episodes with longer hospital stay (P for trend < 0.01), presence of atelectasis (OR 11.9; 95% CI 3.1-45.9) and requirement for oxygen (P for trend < 0.01). The overall number of pneumonia episodes, rather than its site, was associated with bronchiectasis. Although the total number of pneumonia episodes in the first year of life did not increase the risk of bronchiectasis, more severe episodes early in life did. Malnutrition, premature birth and being small for gestational age were more common findings among cases. Breast-feeding appeared to be a protective factor (OR 0.2; 95% CI 0.1-0.7). Conclusions: Although we cannot fully answer the question of why bronchiectasis is much more common in Indigenous children, we have provided strong evidence of an association between bronchiectasis and severe and recurrent pneumonia episodes in infancy and childhood.

Gene-flow between populations of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is highly variable between years

Both large and small scale migrations of Helicoverpa armigera Hübner in Australia were investigated using AMOVA analysis and genetic assignment tests. Five microsatellite loci were screened across 3142 individuals from 16 localities in eight major cotton and grain growing regions within Australia, over a 38-month period (November 1999 to January 2003). From November 1999 to March 2001 relatively low levels of migration were characterized between growing regions. Substantially higher than average gene-flow rates and limited differentiation between cropping regions characterized the period from April 2001 to March 2002. A reduced migration rate in the year from April 2002 to March 2003 resulted in significant genetic structuring between cropping regions. This differentiation was established within two or three generations. Genetic drift alone is unlikely to drive genetic differentiation over such a small number of generations, unless it is accompanied by extreme bottlenecks and/or selection. Helicoverpa armigera in Australia demonstrated isolation by distance, so immigration into cropping regions is more likely to come from nearby regions than from afar. This effect was most pronounced in years with limited migration. However, there is evidence of long distance dispersal events in periods of high migration (April 2001-March 2002). The implications of highly variable migration patterns for resistance management are considered.