920 resultados para Validity over time
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Aquest projecte tracta l'actualització d'una pàgina Web d'un centre mèdic, que amb el pas del temps és obsoleta, i que vol obrir nous centres.
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Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.
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Changes in the epidemiology of diphtheria are occurring worldwide. A large proportion of adults in many industrialized and developing countries are now susceptible to diphtheria. Vaccine-induced immunity wanes over time unless periodic booster is given or exposure to toxigenic Corynebacterium diphtheriae occurs. Immunity gap in adults coupled with large numbers of susceptible children creates the potential for new extensive epidemics. Epidemic emergencies may not be long in coming in countries experiencing rapid industrialization or undergoing sociopolitical instability where many of the factors thought to be important in producing epidemic such as mass population movements and difficult hygienic and economic conditions are present. The continuous circulation of toxigenic C. diphtheriae emphasizes the need to be aware of epidemiological features, clinical signs, and symptoms of diphtheria in vaccine era so that cases can be promptly diagnosed and treated, and further public health measures can be taken to contain this serious disease. This overview focused on worldwide data obtained from diphtheria with particular emphasis to main factors leading to recent epidemics, new clinical forms of C. diphtheriae infections, expression of virulence factors, other than toxin production, control strategies, and laboratory diagnosis procedures.
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This annual analysis of data provides an overview of HIV and STI epidemiology in Northern Ireland for the calendar year 2009. Information from a variety of sources is collated and analysed in detail, while any evident trends over time are highlightedwithgraphs and tables. As well as a general summary of STI diagnoses and a number of overall conclusions, the report looks specifically at each of the following STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, genital herpes, genital warts, syphilis, lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) and HIV.
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BACKGROUND: Anti-TNFα agents are commonly used for ulcerative colitis (UC) therapy in the event of non-response to conventional strategies or as colon-salvaging therapy. The objectives were to assess the appropriateness of biological therapies for UC patients and to study treatment discontinuation over time, according to appropriateness of treatment, as a measure of outcome. METHODS: We selected adult ulcerative colitis patients from the Swiss IBD cohort who had been treated with anti-TNFα agents. Appropriateness of the first-line anti-TNFα treatment was assessed using detailed criteria developed during the European Panel on the Appropriateness of Therapy for UC. Treatment discontinuation as an outcome was assessed for categories of appropriateness. RESULTS: Appropriateness of the first-line biological treatment was determined in 186 UC patients. For 64% of them, this treatment was considered appropriate. During follow-up, 37% of all patients discontinued biological treatment, 17% specifically because of failure. Time-to-failure of treatment was significantly different among patients on an appropriate biological treatment compared to those for whom the treatment was considered not appropriate (p=0.0007). Discontinuation rate after 2years was 26% compared to 54% between those two groups. Patients on inappropriate biological treatment were more likely to have severe disease, concomitant steroids and/or immunomodulators. They were also consistently more likely to suffer a failure of efficacy and to stop therapy during follow-up. CONCLUSION: Appropriateness of first-line anti-TNFα therapy results in a greater likelihood of continuing with the therapy. In situations where biological treatment is uncertain or inappropriate, physicians should consider other options instead of prescribing anti-TNFα agents.
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OBJECTIVE: Research on interhospital transfers provides a basis for describing and quantifying patient flow and its evolution over time, offering an insight into hospital organization and management and hospital overcrowding. The purpose of this study was to conduct a qualitative and quantitative analysis of patient flow and to examine trends over an eight-year period. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive study of interhospital transfers was conducted between 2003 and 2011 based on an analysis of demographic, medical and operational characteristics. Ambulance transfers and transfers requiring physician assistance were analyzed separately. RESULTS: The number of interhospital transfers increased significantly over the study period,from 4,026 in 2003 to 6,481 in 2011 (+60.9%). The number of ambulance transfers increased by almost 300% (616 in 2003 compared to 2,460 in 2011). Most of the transfers (98%) were to hospitals located less than 75 km from the university hospital (median: 24 km, 5-44). In 2011, 24% of all transfers were to psychiatric institutions. 26% of all transfer cases were direct transfers from the emergency department. An increasing number of transfers required physician assistance. 18% of these patients required ventilatory support, whole 9.8% required vasoactive drugs. 11.6% of these transfers were due to hospital overcrowding. Conclusion: The study shows that there has been a significant increase in interhospital transfers. This increase is related to hospital overcrowding and to the network-based systems governing patient care strategies.
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BACKGROUND: Use of cardiopulmonary bypass for emergency resuscitation is not new. In fact, John Gibbon proposed this concept for the treatment of severe pulmonary embolism in 1937. Significant progress has been made since, and two main concepts for cardiac assist based on cardiopulmonary bypass have emerged: cardiopulmonary support (CPS) and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). The objective of this review is to summarize the state of the art in these two technologies. METHODS: Configuration of CPS is now fairly standard. A mobile cart with relatively large wheels allowing for easy transportation carries a centrifugal pump, a back-up battery with a charger, an oxygen cylinder, and a small heating system. Percutaneous cannulation, pump-driven venous return, rapid availability, and transportability are the main characteristics of a CPS system. Cardiocirculatory arrest is a major predictor of mortality despite the use of CPS. In contrast, CPS appears to be a powerful tool for patients in cardiogenic shock before cardiocirculatory arrest, requiring some type of therapeutic procedures, especially repair of anatomically correctable problems or bridging to other mechanical circulatory support systems such as ventricular assist devices. CPS is in general not suitable for long-term applications because of the small-bore cannulas, resulting in significant pressure gradients and eventually hemolysis. RESULTS: In contrast, ECMO can be designed for longer-term circulatory support. This requires large-bore cannulas and specifically designed oxygenators. The latter are either plasma leakage resistent (true membranes) or relatively thrombo-resistant (heparin coated). Both technologies require oxygenator changeovers although the main reason for this is different (clotting for the former, plasma leakage for the latter). Likewise, the tubing within a roller pump has to be displaced and centrifugal pump heads have to be replaced over time. ECMO is certainly the first choice for a circulatory support system in the neonatal and pediatric age groups, where the other assist systems are too bulky. ECMO is also indicated for patients improving on CPS. Septic conditions are, in general, considered as contraindications for ECMO. CONCLUSIONS: Ease of availability and moderate cost of cardiopulmonary bypass-based cardiac support technologies have to be balanced against the significant immobilization of human resources, which is required to make them successful.
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BACKGROUND: Malaria is almost invariably ranked as the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Africa. There is growing evidence of a decline in malaria transmission, morbidity and mortality over the last decades, especially so in East Africa. However, there is still doubt whether this decline is reflected in a reduction of the proportion of malaria among fevers. The objective of this systematic review was to estimate the change in the Proportion of Fevers associated with Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia (PFPf) over the past 20 years in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Search strategy. In December 2009, publications from the National Library of Medicine database were searched using the combination of 16 MeSH terms.Selection criteria. Inclusion criteria: studies 1) conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, 2) patients presenting with a syndrome of 'presumptive malaria', 3) numerators (number of parasitologically confirmed cases) and denominators (total number of presumptive malaria cases) available, 4) good quality microscopy.Data collection and analysis. The following variables were extracted: parasite presence/absence, total number of patients, age group, year, season, country and setting, clinical inclusion criteria. To assess the dynamic of PFPf over time, the median PFPf was compared between studies published in the years ≤2000 and > 2000. RESULTS: 39 studies conducted between 1986 and 2007 in 16 different African countries were included in the final analysis. When comparing data up to year 2000 (24 studies) with those afterwards (15 studies), there was a clear reduction in the median PFPf from 44% (IQR 31-58%; range 7-81%) to 22% (IQR 13-33%; range 2-77%). This dramatic decline is likely to reflect a true change since stratified analyses including explanatory variables were performed and median PFPfs were always lower after 2000 compared to before. CONCLUSIONS: There was a considerable reduction of the proportion of malaria among fevers over time in Africa. This decline provides evidence for the policy change from presumptive anti-malarial treatment of all children with fever to laboratory diagnosis and treatment upon result. This should insure appropriate care of non-malaria fevers and rationale use of anti-malarials.
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Aims: The pivotal FREEDOM study evaluated the effi cacy and safety of 3 years' denosumab treatment in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO).1 Since osteoporosis is a chronic condition requiring long-term therapy, FREEDOM was extended to further elucidate the safety and effi cacy of long-term denosumab administration. We present data from the fi rst 2 years of this extension, representing up to 5 years' continuous exposure to denosumab.Methods: Patients who completed FREEDOM were eligible for the extension. Women continued to receive (long-term group), or started after 3 years' placebo (cross-over group), denosumab 60 mg sc every 6 months and daily calcium and vitamin D. These data refl ect 5 years' (long-term) or 2 years' (cross-over) continuous denosumab treatment. Effi cacy measures include changes in BMD from extension study baseline and bone turnover markers (BTM). P-values are descriptive.Results: Of the 83.0% of subjects who completed FREEDOM, 70.2% (N = 4550) agreed to participate in the extension (long-term: 2343; cross-over: 2207). In the long-term group, there were further signifi cant gains (P < 0.0001) in BMD in years 4 and 5: 1.9% and 1.7% at the lumbar spine to a total of 13.7% from FREEDOM baseline and 0.7% and 0.6% at the total hip to a total of 7.0%. During their fi rst 2 years' denosumab treatment, women in the cross-over group had signifi cant improvements in lumbar spine (7.9%) and total hip BMD (4.1%) (P < 0.0001). Serum C-telopeptide (CTX) was rapidly reduced following denosumab dosing in both groups, with the characteristic attenuation of CTX reduction observed at the end of the dosing interval. A low incidence of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures was reported for both groups. The denosumab safety profi le did not change over time.Conclusions: Denosumab treatment for up to 5 years in women with PMO remains well tolerated, maintains reduction of BTMs and continues to significantly increase BMD.Reference1. Cummings. NEJM 2009;361:756.
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Introduction The flexible derotator is one of the therapeutic resources used to combat primary and secondary abnormalities in walking cerebral palsy children. It was developed to reduce abnormal femoral and tibial torsions and lessen the latter's negative functional impact. Objective To determine the effect of wearing a flexible derotator on anatomic and functional parameters in walking cerebral palsy children. Methods We performed a retrospective study of walking cerebral palsy children by gathering data on bone-related parameters (femoral and tibial torsion) and functional parameters (distance and speed gait, and the energy expenditure index (EEI)). Fifteen walking cerebral palsy children were treated with the flexible derotator for one year and 15 untreated walking cerebral palsy children were included as controls. The two groups were compared in terms of the various parameters' change over time between the initial examination (the last examination prior to the start of the study or prior to use of the flexible derotator) and the final examination (after one year of follow-up). Results Right femoral anteversion and right and left external tibial torsion improved. There was a significant increase in distance and speed gait and a decrease in the EEI in walking cerebral palsy children. Conclusion Our retrospective study revealed a significant improvement in functional parameters in children with cerebral palsy, as a result of wearing the flexible derotator for at least 6 hours a day for a year. Bone parameters only improved slightly. Use of the flexible derotator could improve these children's quality of life.
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The increasing number of bomb attacks involving improvised explosive devices, as well as the nature of the explosives, give rise to concern among safety and law enforcement agencies. The substances used in explosive charges are often everyday products diverted from their primary licit applications. Thus, reducing or limiting their accessibility for prevention purposes is difficult. Ammonium nitrate, employed in agriculture as a fertiliser, is used worldwide in small and large homemade bombs. Black powder, dedicated to hunting and shooting sports, is used illegally as a filling in pipe bombs causing extensive damage. If the main developments of instrumental techniques in explosive analysis have been constantly pushing the limits of detection, their actual contribution to the investigation of explosives in terms of source discrimination is limited. Forensic science has seen the emergence of a new technology, isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), that shows promising results. Its very first application in forensic science dates back to 1979. Liu et al. analysed cannabis plants coming from different countries [Liu et al. 1979]. This preliminary study highlighted its potential to discriminate specimens coming from different sources. Thirty years later, the keen interest in this new technology has given rise to a flourishing number of publications in forensic science. The countless applications of IRMS to a wide range of materials and substances attest to its success and suggest that the technique is ready to be used in forensic science. However, many studies are characterised by a lack of methodology and fundamental data. They have been undertaken in a top-down approach, applying this technique in an exploratory manner on a restricted sampling. This manner of procedure often does not allow the researcher to answer a number of questions, such as: do the specimens come from the same source, what do we mean by source or what is the inherent variability of a substance? The production of positive results has prevailed at the expense of forensic fundamentals. This research focused on the evaluation of the contribution of the information provided by isotopic analysis to the investigation of explosives. More specifically, this evaluation was based on a sampling of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers coming from known sources. Not only has the methodology developed in this work enabled us to highlight crucial elements inherent to the methods themselves, but also to evaluate both the longitudinal and transversal variabilities of the information. First, the study of the variability of the profile over time was undertaken. Secondly, the variability of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers within the same source and between different sources was evaluated. The contribution of this information to the investigation of explosives was then evaluated and discussed. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Le nombre croissant d'attentats à la bombe impliquant des engins explosifs artisanaux, ainsi que la nature des charges explosives, constituent une préoccupation majeure pour les autorités d'application de la loi et les organismes de sécurité. Les substances utilisées dans les charges explosives sont souvent des produits du quotidien, détournés de leurs applications licites. Par conséquent, réduire ou limiter l'accessibilité de ces produits dans un but de prévention est difficile. Le nitrate d'ammonium, employé dans l'agriculture comme engrais, est utilisé dans des petits et grands engins explosifs artisanaux. La poudre noire, initialement dédiée à la chasse et au tir sportif, est fréquemment utilisée comme charge explosive dans les pipe bombs, qui causent des dommages importants. Si les développements des techniques d'analyse des explosifs n'ont cessé de repousser les limites de détection, leur contribution réelle à l'investigation des explosifs est limitée en termes de discrimination de sources. Une nouvelle technologie qui donne des résultats prometteurs a fait son apparition en science forensique: la spectrométrie de masse à rapport isotopique (IRMS). Sa première application en science forensique remonte à 1979. Liu et al. ont analysé des plants de cannabis provenant de différents pays [Liu et al. 1979]. Cette étude préliminaire, basée sur quelques analyses, a mis en évidence le potentiel de l'IRMS à discriminer des spécimens provenant de sources différentes. Trente ans plus tard, l'intérêt marqué pour cette nouvelle technologie en science forensique se traduit par un nombre florissant de publications. Les innombrables applications de l'IRMS à une large gamme de matériaux et de substances attestent de son succès et suggèrent que la technique est prête à être utilisée en science forensique. Cependant, de nombreuses études sont caractérisées par un manque de méthodologie et de données fondamentales. Elles ont été menées sans définir les hypothèses de recherche et en appliquant cette technique de façon exploratoire sur un échantillonnage restreint. Cette manière de procéder ne permet souvent pas au chercheur de répondre à un certain nombre de questions, tels que: est-ce que deux spécimens proviennent de la même source, qu'entend-on par source ou encore quelle est l'intravariabilité d'une substance? La production de résultats positifs a prévalu au détriment des fondamentaux de science forensique. Cette recherche s'est attachée à évaluer la contribution réelle de l'information isotopique dans les investigations en matière d'explosifs. Plus particulièrement, cette évaluation s'est basée sur un échantillonnage constitué de poudres noires et d'engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium provenant de sources connues. La méthodologie développée dans ce travail a permis non seulement de mettre en évidence des éléments cruciaux relatifs à la méthode d'analyse elle-même, mais également d'évaluer la variabilité de l'information isotopique d'un point de vue longitudinal et transversal. Dans un premier temps, l'évolution du profil en fonction du temps a été étudiée. Dans un second temps, la variabilité du profil des poudres noires et des engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium au sein d'une même source et entre différentes sources a été évaluée. La contribution de cette information dans le cadre des investigations d'explosifs a ensuite été discutée et évaluée.
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BeeZee Bodies is a family weight management programme targeted at children aged 7 15 designed to produce a sustainable reduction in childhood obesity through effective behaviour change in families.Aims:o To enhance self-esteemo To improve perceived body imageo To maintain or reduce BMI and waist circumference in children (and parents where necessary)o To increase levels of physical activityo To enhance parenting efficacyo For families to feel empowered to make significant changes to their lifestyle and for these to be sustainable over time.
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Evidence Review 7 - Tackling fuel poverty and cold home-related health problems Briefing 7 - Fuel poverty and cold home-related health problems This pair of documents, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, address the health impacts of fuel poverty and cold homes. These documents provide an overview of fuel poverty, describing the evidence linking fuel poverty, cold homes, and poor health outcomes. They examine the scale of the problem across England and trends over time. Evidence shows that living in cold homes is associated with poor health outcomes and an increased risk of morbidity and mortality for all age groups. The documents also provide a brief overview of national policy and sets out the role of local authorities and potential interventions at local level. Fuel poverty is not just about poverty, but also about the quality of England’s housing stock and energy efficiency. The review discusses some of the interventions that have been implemented at the local level to help people on low incomes during cold weather and to address cold home-related health problems. The full evidence review and a shorter summary briefing are available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.
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Linking the structural connectivity of brain circuits to their cooperative dynamics and emergent functions is a central aim of neuroscience research. Graph theory has recently been applied to study the structure-function relationship of networks, where dynamical similarity of different nodes has been turned into a "static" functional connection. However, the capability of the brain to adapt, learn and process external stimuli requires a constant dynamical functional rewiring between circuitries and cell assemblies. Hence, we must capture the changes of network functional connectivity over time. Multi-electrode array data present a unique challenge within this framework. We study the dynamics of gamma oscillations in acute slices of the somatosensory cortex from juvenile mice recorded by planar multi-electrode arrays. Bursts of gamma oscillatory activity lasting a few hundred milliseconds could be initiated only by brief trains of electrical stimulations applied at the deepest cortical layers and simultaneously delivered at multiple locations. Local field potentials were used to study the spatio-temporal properties and the instantaneous synchronization profile of the gamma oscillatory activity, combined with current source density (CSD) analysis. Pair-wise differences in the oscillation phase were used to determine the presence of instantaneous synchronization between the different sites of the circuitry during the oscillatory period. Despite variation in the duration of the oscillatory response over successive trials, they showed a constant average power, suggesting that the rate of expenditure of energy during the gamma bursts is consistent across repeated stimulations. Within each gamma burst, the functional connectivity map reflected the columnar organization of the neocortex. Over successive trials, an apparently random rearrangement of the functional connectivity was observed, with a more stable columnar than horizontal organization. This work reveals new features of evoked gamma oscillations in developing cortex.
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BACKGROUND: The recent availability of genetic analyses has demonstrated the shortcomings of the current phenotypic method of corneal dystrophy classification. Abnormalities in different genes can cause a single phenotype, whereas different defects in a single gene can cause different phenotypes. Some disorders termed corneal dystrophies do not appear to have a genetic basis. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop a new classification system for corneal dystrophies, integrating up-to-date information on phenotypic description, pathologic examination, and genetic analysis. METHODS: The International Committee for Classification of Corneal Dystrophies (IC3D) was created to devise a current and accurate nomenclature. RESULTS: This anatomic classification continues to organize dystrophies according to the level chiefly affected. Each dystrophy has a template summarizing genetic, clinical, and pathologic information. A category number from 1 through 4 is assigned, reflecting the level of evidence supporting the existence of a given dystrophy. The most defined dystrophies belong to category 1 (a well-defined corneal dystrophy in which a gene has been mapped and identified and specific mutations are known) and the least defined belong to category 4 (a suspected dystrophy where the clinical and genetic evidence is not yet convincing). The nomenclature may be updated over time as new information regarding the dystrophies becomes available. CONCLUSIONS: The IC3D Classification of Corneal Dystrophies is a new classification system that incorporates many aspects of the traditional definitions of corneal dystrophies with new genetic, clinical, and pathologic information. Standardized templates provide key information that includes a level of evidence for there being a corneal dystrophy. The system is user-friendly and upgradeable and can be retrieved on the website www.corneasociety.org/ic3d.