Hezbollah and Taliban - hybrid adversaries in contemporary conflicts? : views on an adversary from the United States Armed Forces perspective

The experiences of the United States Armed Forces of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Israel Defense Forces in the Second Lebanon War resulted a new term to surface called “hybrid warfare”. It was to describe the complexity of today’s battlefield. The term “hy-brid warfare” was never officially defined nor is it today. The updated version of the US ARMY Field Manual 3-0: Operations (Change 1) from February 22, 2011, introduced and defined “hybrid threat” and thus opened the discussion for hybrid adversary. In this thesis a model is introduced according to which any organization, group or an ad-versary can be examined and evaluated to see whether it qualifies as a hybrid adversary. It is demonstrated by the example of Hezbollah, which is recognized as the best example of an organization utilizing “hybrid warfare” and subsequently categorizing as a hybrid adver-sary. The model will be tested with Afghan Taliban to see whether both the model works and Taliban qualifies as a hybrid adversary or not. According to the model used in this thesis, it is concluded that Taliban does not meet the standards of a hybrid adversary, but with acquisition of standoff weapons it would quickly qualify as one. The model proved to work, and it could be used as a tool by intelligence of-ficers for estimating the threat levels of any group or identifying those groups that are al-ready or are about to develop into a hybrid adversary.

Insiders´ views as a predictor of stock performance : can insider trading be used to predict stock performance on the United States stock market?

This thesis studies the possibility of using information on insiders’ transactions to forecast future stock returns after the implementation of Sarbanes Oxley Act in July 2003. Insider transactions between July 2003 and August 2009 are analysed with regression tests to identify the relationships between insiders’ transactions and future stock returns. This analysis is complemented with rudimentary bootstrapping procedures to verify the robustness of the findings. The underlying assumption of the thesis is that insiders constantly receive pieces of information that indicate future performance of the company. They may not be allowed to trade on large and tangible pieces of information but they can trade on accumulation of smaller, intangible pieces of information. Based on the analysis in the thesis insiders’ profits were found not to differ from the returns from broad stock index. However, their individual transactions were found to be linked to future stock returns. The initial model was found to be unstable but some of the predictive power could be sacrificed to achieve greater stability. Even after sacrificing some predictive power the relationship was significant enough to allow external investors to achieve abnormal profits after transaction costs and taxes. The thesis does not go into great detail about timing of transactions. Delay in publishing insiders’ transactions is not taken into account in the calculations and the closed windows are not studied in detail. The potential effects of these phenomena are looked into and they do not cause great changes in the findings. Additionally the remuneration policy of an insider or a company is not taken into account even though it most likely affects the trading patterns of insiders. Even with the limitations the findings offer promising opportunities for investors to improve their investment processes by incorporating additional information from insiders’ transaction into their decisions. The findings also raise questions on how insider trading should be regulated. Insiders achieve greater returns than other investors based on superior information. On the other hand, more efficient information transfer could warrant more lenient regulation. The fact that insiders’ returns are dominated by the large investment stake they maintain all the time in their own companies also speaks for more leniency. As Sarbanes Oxley Act considerably modified the insider trading landscape, this analysis provides information that has not been available before. The thesis also constitutes a thorough analysis of insider trading phenomenon which has previously been somewhat separated into several studies.

An Address of members of the House of Representatives of the Congress of the United States, to their constituents, on the subject of the war with Great Britain. --

Signed by George Sullivan and thirty-three other Federalist members.

Captain Lewis Warrington and others : memorial of Lewis Warrington, Captain in the U.S. Navy, (in behalf of himself and the officers and crew of the U.S. sloop-of-war Peacock); praying that the one half of the proceeds of the Epervier and goods which went into the officers and crew of said vessel, it having been decreed to them by the United States court as captors. April 26, 1848.--

Caption title.

A compressed view of the points to be discussed, in treating with the United States of America : with an appendix /

Appendix: On the conduct of the government of United States towards the Indian tribes: p.[129]-139.

Message from the President of the United States, in relation to the claim of Virginia, an account of interest paid by that State, on moneys borrowed for the payment of the militia thereof, for services rendered the United States.--

April 13, 1824. Printed by order of the Senate of the United States.

Message from the President of the United States, transmitting of a report of the Secretary of State, in relation to individuals selected from American prisoners of war, and sent to Great Britain for trial, and also in relation to any orders for retaliation, &c., &c.--

April 16, 1814. Printed by order of the Senate of the United States.

Message from the President of the United States, transmitting communications from the plenipotentiaries of the United States charged with negotiating peace with Great Britain : showing the conditions on which alone that government is willing to put an end to the war. --

13th Congress, 3d session. House. Doc. 6.

Message from the President of the United States, transmitting copies of the instructions given to the ministers of the United States appointed to negotiate a peace with Great Britain. --

13th Congress, 3d session. House. Doc. no. 8.

Message from the President of the United States, transmitting a report of the Secretary of State, in obedience to a resolution of the thirteenth inst. "requesting the President to lay before this House such documents relative to the Russian mediation as in his opinion it may not be improper to communicate." --

United States,13th Congress, 2d session, 1813-1814. House. Doc. no. 35.

Message from the President of the United States, to both Houses of Congress, at the commencement of the third session of the thirteenth Congress. --

Document no. 1 in U.S. 13th Congress, 3d session, 1814-1815. House.