928 resultados para Uncertainty quantification
Resumo:
Carnitine is an amino acid derivative that plays a key role in energy metabolism. Endogenous carnitine is found in its free form or esterified with acyl groups of several chain lengths. Quantification of carnitine and acylcarnitines is of particular interest for screening for research and metabolic disorders. We developed a method with online solid-phase extraction coupled to high-performance liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry to quantify carnitine and three acylcarnitines with different polarity (acetylcarnitine, octanoylcarnitine, and palmitoylcarnitine). Plasma samples were deproteinized with methanol, loaded on a cation exchange trapping column and separated on a reversed-phase C8 column using heptafluorobutyric acid as an ion-pairing reagent. Considering the endogenous nature of the analytes, we quantified with the standard addition method and with external deuterated standards. Solid-phase extraction and separation were achieved within 8 min. Recoveries of carnitine and acylcarnitines were between 98 and 105 %. Both quantification methods were equally accurate (all values within 84 to 116 % of target concentrations) and precise (day-to-day variation of less than 18 %) for all carnitine species and concentrations analyzed. The method was used successfully for determination of carnitine and acylcarnitines in different human samples. In conclusion, we present a method for simultaneous quantification of carnitine and acylcarnitines with a rapid sample work-up. This approach requires small sample volumes and a short analysis time, and it can be applied for the determination of other acylcarnitines than the acylcarnitines tested. The method is useful for applications in research and clinical routine.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of intravenous methylprednisolone (IVMP) in patients with relapsing-remitting (RR-MS), secondary progressive (SP-MS), and primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PP-MS). METHODS: Clinical and neurophysiological follow up was undertaken in 24 RR-MS, eight SP-MS, and nine PP-MS patients receiving Solu-Medrol 500 mg/d over five days for exacerbations involving the motor system. Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) were used to measure central motor conduction time (CMCT) and the triple stimulation technique (TST) was applied to assess conduction deficits. The TST allows accurate quantification of the number of conducting central motor neurones, expressed by the TST amplitude ratio. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in TST amplitude ratio in RR-MS (p<0.001) and SP-MS patients (p<0.02) at day 5, paralleling an increase in muscle force. TST amplitude ratio and muscle force remained stable at two months. In PP-MS, TST amplitude ratio and muscle force did not change. CMCT did not change significantly in any of the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: In RR-MS and SP-MS, IVMP is followed by a prompt increase in conducting central motor neurones paralleled by improvement in muscle force, which most probably reflects partial resolution of central conduction block. The lack of similar clinical and neurophysiological changes in PP-MS corroborates previous clinical reports on limited IVMP efficacy in this patient group and points to pathophysiological differences underlying exacerbations in PP-MS.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is associated with at least 1 pathogen point sequence variant on each CFTR allele. Some symptomatic patients, however, have only 1 detectable pathogen sequence variant and carry, on the other allele, a large deletion that is not detected by conventional screening methods. METHODS: For relative quantitative real-time PCR detection of large deletions in the CFTR gene, we designed DNA-specific primers for each exon of the gene and primers for a reference gene (beta2-microglobulin). For PCR we used a LightCycler system (Roche) and calculated the gene-dosage ratio of CFTR to beta2-microglobulin. We tested the method by screening all 27 exons in 3 healthy individuals and 2 patients with only 1 pathogen sequence variant. We then performed specific deletion screenings in 10 CF patients with known large deletions and a blinded analysis in which we screened 24 individuals for large deletions by testing 8 of 27 exons. RESULTS: None of the ratios for control samples were false positive (for deletions or duplications); moreover, for all samples from patients with known large deletions, the calculated ratios for deleted exons were close to 0.5. In addition, the results from the blinded analysis demonstrated that our method can also be used for the screening of single individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The LightCycler assay allows reliable and rapid screening for large deletions in the CFTR gene and detects the copy number of all 27 exons.
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This paper presents a fully Bayesian approach that simultaneously combines basic event and statistically independent higher event-level failure data in fault tree quantification. Such higher-level data could correspond to train, sub-system or system failure events. The full Bayesian approach also allows the highest-level data that are usually available for existing facilities to be automatically propagated to lower levels. A simple example illustrates the proposed approach. The optimal allocation of resources for collecting additional data from a choice of different level events is also presented. The optimization is achieved using a genetic algorithm.
Resumo:
Backcalculation is the primary method used to reconstruct past human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates, to estimate current prevalence of HIV infection, and to project future incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The method is very sensitive to uncertainty about the incubation period. We estimate incubation distributions from three sets of cohort data and find that the estimates for the cohorts are substantially different. Backcalculations employing the different estimates produce equally good fits to reported AIDS counts but quite different estimates of cumulative infections. These results suggest that the incubation distribution is likely to differ for different populations and that the differences are large enough to have a big impact on the resulting estimates of HIV infection rates. This seriously limits the usefulness of backcalculation for populations (such as intravenous drug users, heterosexuals, and women) that lack precise information on incubation times.
Resumo:
We analyze three sets of doubly-censored cohort data on incubation times, estimating incubation distributions using semi-parametric methods and assessing the comparability of the estimates. Weibull models appear to be inappropriate for at least one of the cohorts, and the estimates for the different cohorts are substantially different. We use these estimates as inputs for backcalculation, using a nonparametric method based on maximum penalized likelihood. The different incubations all produce fits to the reported AIDS counts that are as good as the fit from a nonstationary incubation distribution that models treatment effects, but the estimated infection curves are very different. We also develop a method for estimating nonstationarity as part of the backcalculation procedure and find that such estimates also depend very heavily on the assumed incubation distribution. We conclude that incubation distributions are so uncertain that meaningful error bounds are difficult to place on backcalculated estimates and that backcalculation may be too unreliable to be used without being supplemented by other sources of information in HIV prevalence and incidence.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Cyclic recruitment during mechanical ventilation contributes to ventilator associated lung injury. Two different pathomechanisms in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are currently discussed: alveolar collapse vs persistent flooding of small airways and alveoli. We compare two different ARDS animal models by computed tomography (CT) to describe different recruitment and derecruitment mechanisms at different airway pressures: (i) lavage-ARDS, favouring alveolar collapse by surfactant depletion; and (ii) oleic acid ARDS, favouring alveolar flooding by capillary leakage. METHODS: In 12 pigs [25 (1) kg], ARDS was randomly induced, either by saline lung lavage or oleic acid (OA) injection, and 3 animals served as controls. A respiratory breathhold manoeuvre without spontaneous breathing at different continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was applied in random order (CPAP levels of 5, 10, 15, 30, 35 and 50 cm H(2)O) and spiral-CT scans of the total lung were acquired at each CPAP level (slice thickness=1 mm). In each spiral-CT the volume of total lung parenchyma, tissue, gas, non-aerated, well-aerated, poorly aerated, and over-aerated lung was calculated. RESULTS: In both ARDS models non-aerated lung volume decreased significantly from CPAP 5 to CPAP 50 [oleic acid lung injury (OAI): 346.9 (80.1) to 96.4 (48.8) ml, P<0.001; lavage-ARDS: 245 17.6) to 42.7 (4.8) ml, P<0.001]. In lavage-ARDS poorly aerated lung volume decreased at higher CPAP levels [232 (45.2) at CPAP 10 to 84 (19.4) ml at CPAP 50, P<0.001] whereas in OAI poorly aerated lung volume did not vary at different airway pressures. CONCLUSIONS: In both ARDS models well-aerated and non-aerated lung volume respond to different CPAP levels in a comparable fashion: Thus, a cyclical alveolar collapse seems to be part of the derecruitment process also in the OA-ARDS. In OA-ARDS, the increase in poorly aerated lung volume reflects the specific initial lesion, that is capillary leakage with interstitial and alveolar oedema.
Resumo:
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are used to discover genes underlying complex, heritable disorders for which less powerful study designs have failed in the past. The number of GWAS has skyrocketed recently with findings reported in top journals and the mainstream media. Mircorarrays are the genotype calling technology of choice in GWAS as they permit exploration of more than a million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)simultaneously. The starting point for the statistical analyses used by GWAS, to determine association between loci and disease, are genotype calls (AA, AB, or BB). However, the raw data, microarray probe intensities, are heavily processed before arriving at these calls. Various sophisticated statistical procedures have been proposed for transforming raw data into genotype calls. We find that variability in microarray output quality across different SNPs, different arrays, and different sample batches has substantial inuence on the accuracy of genotype calls made by existing algorithms. Failure to account for these sources of variability, GWAS run the risk of adversely affecting the quality of reported findings. In this paper we present solutions based on a multi-level mixed model. Software implementation of the method described in this paper is available as free and open source code in the crlmm R/BioConductor.
Resumo:
Francisella tularensis, a small Gram-negative facultative intracellular bacterium, is the causative agent of tularaemia, a severe zoonotic disease transmitted to humans mostly by vectors such as ticks, flies and mosquitoes. The disease is endemic in many parts of the northern hemisphere. Among animals, the most affected species belong to rodents and lagomorphs, in particular hares. However, in the recent years, many cases of tularaemia among small monkeys in zoos were reported. We have developed a real-time PCR that allows to quantify F. tularensis in tissue samples. Using this method, we identified the spleen and the kidney as the most heavily infected organ containing up to 400 F. tularensis bacteria per simian host cell in two common squirrel monkeys (Saimiri sciureus) from a zoo that died of tularaemia. In other organs such as the brain, F. tularensis was detected at much lower titres. The strain that caused the infection was identified as F. tularensis subsp. holarctica biovar I, which is susceptible to erythromycin. The high number of F. tularensis present in soft organs such as spleen, liver and kidney represents a high risk for persons handling such carcasses and explains the transmission of the disease to a pathologist during post-mortem analysis. Herein, we show that real-time PCR allows a reliable and rapid diagnosis of F. tularensis directly from tissue samples of infected animals, which is crucial in order to attempt accurate prophylactic measures, especially in cases where humans or other animals have been exposed to this highly contagious pathogen.