978 resultados para Uncertainty evaluation


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Because weed eradication programs commonly take 10 or more years to complete, there is a need to evaluate progress toward the eradication objective. We present a simple model, based on information that is readily obtainable, that assesses conformity to the delimitation and extirpation criteria for eradication. It is applied to the program currently targeting the annual parasitic weed, branched broomrape, in South Australia. The model consists of delimitation and extirpation (E) measures plotted against each other to form an 'eradograph.' Deviations from the 'ideal' eradograph plot can inform tactical responses, e.g., increases in survey and/or control effort. Infestations progress from the active phase to the monitoring phase when no plants have been detected for at least 12 mo. They revert to the active phase upon further detection of plants. We summarize this process for the invasion as a whole in a state-and-transition model. Using this model we demonstrate that the invasion is unlikely to be delimited unless the amount of newly detected infested area decreases, on average, by at least 50% per annum. As a result of control activities implemented, on average approximately 70% (range, 44 to 86%) of active infestations progressed to the monitoring phase in the year following their detection. Simulations suggest that increasing this rate of transition will not increase E to a significant extent. The rate of reversion of infestations from the monitoring phase to the active phase decreased logarithmically with time since last detection, but it is likely that lower rates of reversion would accelerate the trend toward extirpation. Program performance with respect to the delimitation criterion has been variable; performance with respect to the extirpation criterion would be improved considerably by the development and application of cost-effective methods for eliminating branched broomrape soil seed populations.

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Synthetic backcrossed-derived bread wheats (SBWs) from CIMMYT were grown in the Northwest of Mexico at Centro de Investigaciones Agrícolas del Noroeste (CIANO) and sites across Australia during three seasons. During three consecutive years Australia received “shipments” of different SBWs from CIMMYT for evaluation. A different set of lines was evaluated each season, as new materials became available from the CIMMYT crop enhancement program. These consisted of approximately 100 advanced lines (F7) per year. SBWs had been top and backcrossed to CIMMYT cultivars in the first two shipments and to Australian wheat cultivars in the third one. At CIANO, the SBWs were trialled under receding soil moisture conditions. We evaluated both the performance of each line across all environments and the genotype-by-environment interaction using an analysis that fits a multiplicative mixed model, adjusted for spatial field trends. Data were organised in three groups of multienvironment trials (MET) containing germplasm from shipment 1 (METShip1), 2 (METShip2), and 3 (METShip3), respectively. Large components of variance for the genotype × environment interaction were found for each MET analysis, due to the diversity of environments included and the limited replication over years (only in METShip2, lines were tested over 2 years). The average percentage of genetic variance explained by the factor analytic models with two factors was 50.3% for METShip1, 46.7% for METShip2, and 48.7% for METShip3. Yield comparison focused only on lines that were present in all locations within a METShip, or “core” SBWs. A number of core SBWs, crossed to both Australian and CIMMYT backgrounds, outperformed the local benchmark checks at sites from the northern end of the Australian wheat belt, with reduced success at more southern locations. In general, lines that succeeded in the north were different from those in the south. The moderate positive genetic correlation between CIANO and locations in the northern wheat growing region likely reflects similarities in average temperature during flowering, high evaporative demand, and a short flowering interval. We are currently studying attributes of this germplasm that may contribute to adaptation, with the aim of improving the selection process in both Mexico and Australia.

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Swordfish are kept chilled, not frozen, for up to 15 days before being unloaded at Australian ports. Swordfish landed alive, and to a lesser extent prerigor, have better quality when unloaded. Warmer fishing waters did not lead to poorer quality at unloading. There was a serious loss of quality during long fishing trips. Sex had no influence on swordfish quality. Three methods of chilling were evaluated: refrigerated seawater (RSW) chilling for up to 2 days followed by storage under ice, refrigerated brine (seawater with extra salt added) for up to 2 days followed by storage in a freshwater ice slurry, and ice slurry (freshwater ice mixed with seawater) for up to 2 days followed by storage under ice only. Two fishing trips were monitored for each method. The freshness indicator K value was used to determine which method produced the best quality swordfish when unloaded at the factory. Storage method played a larger role in quality loss than capture conditions. Refrigerated brine produced the best quality swordfish when the machinery functioned properly closely followed by RSW. Ice slurry chilling of large fish such as swordfish exhibited initial delays in the reduction of core temperature which led to lower quality. This method could be improved with the addition of mechanical circulation. Mechanical problems, which resulted in minor increases of temperature during brine storage, led to a much larger loss of quality than would be expected.

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A restriction analysis of PCR (PCR-REA) amplified apxIVA gene has been suggested as an alternative method for serotyping of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae by Jaglic et al. [Jaglic, Z., Svastova, P., Rychlik, I., Nedbalcova, K., Kucerova, Z., Pavlik, I., Bartos, M., 2004. Differentiation of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae by PCR-REA based on sequence variability of the apxIVA gene and by ribotyping. Vet. Microbiol. 103, 63-69]. The current study investigated whether this alternative method could distinguish between the reference strains of serovars 13-15 and the value of the method when applied to 47 field isolates representing serovars 1-3, 5, 7-9, 12 and 15 as well as non-typable isolates. The reference strains of serovars 13 and 14 had the same sized product after the apxIVA PCR, while the product for serovar 15 was of different size compared to all the other serovar reference strains. The CfoI digest profiles of the reference serovars 13 and 14 strains were different from each other and from all other serovars. The HpaII digest profiles of these two serovars were very similar to each other, but both were distinctively different from the other serovar profiles. The CfoI digest profile of serovar 15 strain was very similar to the serovars 3 and 12 strains except for two faint extra bands for serovar 15. The HpaII digest profiles of serovars 12 and 15 reference strains were identical. The PCR-REA method correctly recognized the serovar of 21 of 43 field isolates. It was concluded that the method was a useful additional tool to support, but could not replace, conventional serotyping.

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Reggio Emilia is an educational philosophy that encourages teachers, students and their parents to collaborate and actively engage with the environment. This study investigates how the Reggio Emilia design approach was translated architecturally for a kindergarten in an Australian context, and provides insights into the operation of this Reggio kindergarten and the impact that it is now having on the occupants. It evaluates the original architectural design intent of the Reggio Emilia early childhood learning environment against its spatial provision. The relationship that the Reggio Emilia approach facilitates between students and the environment, and the contribution that this approach has on their learning, are also explored. Several key themes emerging from the Reggio values were identified in the literature. These were then used to inform an exploration of the kindergarten spaces and places.. Architects, teachers and a sustainability manager of the kindergarten were interviewed with their experiences constituting the primary data of this study. Using a Grounded Theory methodology, systematic data coding and analysis were then conducted. Themes and concepts that emerged from this process include: differing interpretations of the Reggio Emilia philosophy; motivations for neglect of traditional external structures and play equipment; the impact of education for sustainability; and the positive effects that Reggio Emilia is having on the rest of the institution’s development.

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Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

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Despite an abundance of polyembryonic genotypes and the need for rootstocks that improve scion yield and productivity, simultaneous field testing of a wide range of mango (Mangifera indica L.) genotypes as rootstocks has not previously been reported. In this experiment, we examined the growth and yield of 'Kensington Pride' on 64 mango genotypes of diverse origin during the first four seasons of fruit production to identify those worth longer-term assessment. We also recorded morphological characteristics of seedlings of 46 of these genotypes in an attempt to relate these measures to subsequent field performance. Tree canopy development on the most vigorous rootstocks was almost double that on the least vigorous. Growth rates differed by more than 160%. Cumulative marketable yield ranged from 36 kg/tree for the lowest yielding rootstock to 181 kg/tree for the most productive. Yield efficiency also differed markedly among the 64 rootstocks with the best treatment being 3.5 times more efficient than the poorest treatment. No relationship was found between yield efficiency and tree size, suggesting it is possible to select highly efficient rootstocks of differing vigor. Two genotypes ('Brodie' and 'MYP') stood out as providing high yield efficiency with small tree size. A further two genotypes ('B' and 'Watertank') were identified as offering high yield efficiency and large tree size and should provide high early yields at traditional tree spacing. Efforts to relate the morphology of different genotype seedlings to subsequent performance as a rootstock showed that nursery performance of mango seedlings is no indication of their likely behavior as a rootstock. The economic cost of poor yields and low yield efficiencies during the early years of commercial orchard production provide a rationale for culling many of the rootstock treatments in this experiment and concentrating future assessment on the top ~20% of the 64 treatments. Of these, 'MYP', 'B', 'Watertank', 'Manzano', and 'Pancho' currently show the most promise.

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The paper presents a method for transmission loss charge allocation in deregulated power systems based on Relative Electrical Distance (RED) concept. Based on RED between the generator and load nodes and the predefined bilateral power contracts, charge evaluation is carried out. Generally through some power exchange mechanism a set of bilateral contracts are determined that facilitate bilateral agreements between the generation and distribution entities. In this paper the possible charges incurred in meeting loads like generation charge, transmission charge and charge due to losses are evaluated. Case studies have been carried out on a few practical equivalent systems. Due to space limitation results for a sample 5 bus system are presented considering ideal load/generation power contracts and deviated load/generation power contracts. Extensive numerical testing indicates that the proposed allocation scheme produces loss allocations that are appropriate and that behave in a physically reasonable manner.

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The introgression of domestic dog genes into dingo populations threatens the genetic integrity of 'pure' dingoes. However, dingo conservation efforts are hampered by difficulties in distinguishing between dingoes and hybrids in the field. This study evaluates consistency in the status of hybridisation (i.e. dingo, hybrid or dog) assigned by genetic analyses, skull morphology and visual assessments. Of the 56 south-east Queensland animals sampled, 39 (69.6%) were assigned the same status by all three methods, 10 (17.9%) by genetic and skull methods, four (7.1%) by genetic and visual methods; and two (3.6%) by skull and visual methods. Pair-wise comparisons identified a significant relationship between genetic and skull methods, but not between either of these and visual methods. Results from surveying 13 experienced wild dog managers showed that hybrids were more easily identified by visual characters than were dingoes. A more reliable visual assessment can be developed through determining the relationship between (1) genetics and phenotype by sampling wild dog populations and (2) the expression of visual characteristics from different proportions and breeds of domestic dog genes by breeding trials. Culling obvious hybrids based on visual characteristics, such as sable and patchy coat colours, should slow the process of hybridisation.

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We have evaluated the potential of a formulated diet as a replacement for live and fresh feeds for 7-day post-hatch Panulirus ornatus phyllosomata and also investigated the effect of conditioning phyllosomata for 14-21 days on live feeds prior to weaning onto a 100% formulated diet. In the first trial, the highest survival (>55%) was consistently shown by phyllosomata fed a diet consisting of a 50% combination of Artemia nauplii and 50% Greenshell mussel, followed by phyllosomata fed 50% Artemia nauplii and 50% formulated diet and, thirdly, by those receiving 100% Artemia nauplii. The second trial assessed the replacement of on-grown Artemia with proportions of formulated diet and Greenshell mussel that differed from those used in trial 1. Phyllosomata fed a 75% combination of formulated diet and 25% on-grown Artemia and 50% on-grown Artemia and 50% Greenshell mussel consistently showed the highest survival (>75%). Combinations of Greenshell mussel and formulated diet resulted in significantly (P < 0.05) reduced survival. In trial 3, phyllosomata were conditioned for 14, 18 or 21 days on Artemia nauplii prior to weaning onto a 100% formulated diet, which resulted in survival rates that were negatively related to the duration of feeding Artemia nauplii. In the final trial, phyllosomata were conditioned for 14 days on live on-grown Artemia prior to weaning onto one of three formulated diets (one diet with 44% CP and two diets with 50%). Phyllosomata fed a 44% CP diet consistently showed the highest survival (>35%) among all treatments, while those fed a 50%-squid CP diet showed a significant (P < 0.05) increase in mortality at day 24. The results of these trials demonstrate that hatcheries can potentially replace 75% of live on-grown Artemia with a formulated diet 7 days after hatch. The poor performance associated with feeding combinations of Greenshell mussel and formulated diet, and 100% formulated diet as well as conditioning phyllosomata for 14-21 days on live feeds prior to weaning onto a formulated diet highlights the importance of providing Artemia to stimulate feeding.

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The report follows up on data and trends tabled in August 2015 that collected data from two key sources – six identified case study productions that have been tracked for eighteen months, and an online survey delivered to all APAM 2014 delegates. The comparative report has been constructed through an analysis of data reported from the August 2015 and the most recent online survey to all 2104 PM delegates conducted in late November 2015. The report highlights six key trends emerging from the data: The majority of survey respondents will return to APAM 2016; The central reason for attending is the networking opportunities the Market affords; Respondents are confident that a range of new relationships forged at the Market will afford long-term interest and buying opportunities and that as a result of the 2014 event, real touring outcomes were realised for some respondents; Respondents would like to see greater attention to a greater number of networking activities within the program to enable touring outcomes; The multi-venue model is still of concern, and is a recurrent issue from earlier surveys; The level of expense incurred by producers to present work at APAM. Throughout the report, extracted data from the online survey responses will be tabled to develop a narrative in response to the key research aims outlined in the Brisbane Powerhouse Tender document (2011). A full version of the collated responses to the survey questions can be found in the appendices of the report.

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The diffusion coefficient, D, and the ionic mobility, μ, in the protonic conductor ammonium ferrocyanide hydrate have been determined by the isothermal transient ionic current method. D is also determined from the time dependence of the build up of potential across the samples and theretical expressions describing this build up in terms of double exponential dependence on time are obtained. The values obtained are D=3.875×10−11m2s−1 and μ=1.65×10−9 m2V−1s−1.

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Coccidiosis is an economically important parasitic disease of chickens that, in Australia, is caused by seven species of the genus Eimeria.1 The disease has traditionally been controlled by prophylactic drugs, but vaccination with attenuated lines of the parasites2–4 is rapidly gaining acceptance world wide. Live Eimeria vaccines are produced in batches which are not frozen and have a limited shelf life. The per cent infectivity of vaccine seed stocks and the vaccines produced from them must therefore be accurately monitored using standardised dose dependant assays to ensure that shelf life, quality control and vaccine release specifications are met. Infectivity for the chicken host cannot readily be determined by microscopic observation of oocysts or sporocyst hatching.5 Dose dependent parameters such as body weight gain, feed conversion ratio, visual lesion scores, mortality, oocysts production, clinical symptoms and microscopic lesion counts could be used as measures of infectivity.6–11 These parameters show significant dose dependant effects with field strains, but lines of vaccine parasites that have been selected for precocious development with associated reduced virulence and reproductive capability may not have the same effect.3,4 The aim of this trial was to determine which parameters provide the most effective measures of infective dose in birds inoculated with a precocious vaccine strain.

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Assessing the sustainability of crop and soil management practices in wheat-based rotations requires a well-tested model with the demonstrated ability to sensibly predict crop productivity and changes in the soil resource. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) suite of models was parameterised and subsequently used to predict biomass production, yield, crop water and nitrogen (N) use, as well as long-term soil water and organic matter dynamics in wheat/chickpea systems at Tel Hadya, north-western Syria. The model satisfactorily simulated the productivity and water and N use of wheat and chickpea crops grown under different N and/or water supply levels in the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 experimental seasons. Analysis of soil-water dynamics showed that the 2-stage soil evaporation model in APSIM's cascading water-balance module did not sufficiently explain the actual soil drying following crop harvest under conditions where unused water remained in the soil profile. This might have been related to evaporation from soil cracks in the montmorillonitic clay soil, a process not explicitly simulated by APSIM. Soil-water dynamics in wheat-fallow and wheat-chickpea rotations (1987-98) were nevertheless well simulated when the soil water content in 0-0.45 m soil depth was set to 'air dry' at the end of the growing season each year. The model satisfactorily simulated the amounts of NO3-N in the soil, whereas it underestimated the amounts of NH 4-N. Ammonium fixation might be part of the soil mineral-N dynamics at the study site because montmorillonite is the major clay mineral. This process is not simulated by APSIM's nitrogen module. APSIM was capable of predicting long-term trends (1985-98) in soil organic matter in wheat-fallow and wheat-chickpea rotations at Tel Hadya as reported in literature. Overall, results showed that the model is generic and mature enough to be extended to this set of environmental conditions and can therefore be applied to assess the sustainability of wheat-chickpea rotations at Tel Hadya.

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In the future the number of the disabled drivers requiring a special evaluation of their driving ability will increase due to the ageing population, as well as the progress of adaptive technology. This places pressure on the development of the driving evaluation system. Despite quite intensive research there is still no consensus concerning what is the factual situation in a driver evaluation (methodology), which measures should be included in an evaluation (methods), and how an evaluation has to be carried out (practise). In order to find answers to these questions we carried out empirical studies, and simultaneously elaborated upon a conceptual model for driving and a driving evaluation. The findings of empirical studies can be condensed into the following points: 1) A driving ability defined by the on-road driving test is associated with different laboratory measures depending on the study groups. Faults in the laboratory tests predicted faults in the on-road driving test in the novice group, whereas slowness in the laboratory predicted driving faults in the experienced drivers group. 2) The Parkinson study clearly showed that even an experienced clinician cannot reliably accomplish an evaluation of a disabled person’s driving ability without collaboration with other specialists. 3) The main finding of the stroke study was that the use of a multidisciplinary team as a source of information harmonises the specialists’ evaluations. 4) The patient studies demonstrated that the disabled persons themselves, as well as their spouses, are as a rule not reliable evaluators. 5) From the safety point of view, perceptible operations with the control devices are not crucial, but correct mental actions which the driver carries out with the help of the control devices are of greatest importance. 6) Personality factors including higher-order needs and motives, attitudes and a degree of self-awareness, particularly a sense of illness, are decisive when evaluating a disabled person’s driving ability. Personality is also the main source of resources concerning compensations for lower-order physical deficiencies and restrictions. From work with the conceptual model we drew the following methodological conclusions: First, the driver has to be considered as a holistic subject of the activity, as a multilevel hierarchically organised system of an organism, a temperament, an individuality, and a personality where the personality is the leading subsystem from the standpoint of safety. Second, driving as a human form of a sociopractical activity, is also a hierarchically organised dynamic system. Third, in an evaluation of driving ability it is a question of matching these two hierarchically organised structures: a subject of an activity and a proper activity. Fourth, an evaluation has to be person centred but not disease-, function- or method centred. On the basis of our study a multidisciplinary team (practitioner, driving school teacher, psychologist, occupational therapist) is recommended for use in demanding driver evaluations. Primary in a driver’s evaluations is a coherent conceptual model while concrete methods of evaluations may vary. However, the on-road test must always be performed if possible.