Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation

Lack of access to insurance exacerbates the impact of climate variability on smallholder famers in Africa. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, weather index insurance (WII) pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. In principle, WII could be provided to farmers throughout Africa. There are two data-related hurdles to this. First, most farmers do not live close enough to a rain gauge with sufficiently long record of observations. Second, mismatches between weather indices and yield may expose farmers to uncompensated losses, and insurers to unfair payouts – a phenomenon known as basis risk. In essence, basis risk results from complexities in the progression from meteorological drought (rainfall deficit) to agricultural drought (low soil moisture). In this study, we use a land-surface model to describe the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought. We demonstrate that spatial and temporal aggregation of rainfall results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a reduction in basis risk. We then use an advanced statistical method to show how optimal aggregation of satellite-based rainfall estimates can reduce basis risk, enabling remotely sensed data to be utilized robustly for WII.

Spatial and temporal variability of the concentration field from localized releases in a regular building array

Spatial and temporal fluctuations in the concentration field from an ensemble of continuous point-source releases in a regular building array are analyzed from data generated by direct numerical simulations. The release is of a passive scalar under conditions of neutral stability. Results are related to the underlying flow structure by contrasting data for an imposed wind direction of 0 deg and 45 deg relative to the buildings. Furthermore, the effects of distance from the source and vicinity to the plume centreline on the spatial and temporal variability are documented. The general picture that emerges is that this particular geometry splits the flow domain into segments (e.g. “streets” and “intersections”) in each of which the air is, to a first approximation, well mixed. Notable exceptions to this general rule include regions close to the source, near the plume edge, and in unobstructed channels when the flow is aligned. In the oblique (45 deg) case the strongly three-dimensional nature of the flow enhances mixing of a scalar within the canopy leading to reduced temporal and spatial concentration fluctuations within the plume core. These fluctuations are in general larger for the parallel flow (0 deg) case, especially so in the long unobstructed channels. Due to the more complex flow structure in the canyon-type streets behind buildings, fluctuations are lower than in the open channels, though still substantially larger than for oblique flow. These results are relevant to the formulation of simple models for dispersion in urban areas and to the quantification of the uncertainties in their predictions.

Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

The SARS algorithm: detrending CoRoT light curves with Sysrem using simultaneous external parameters

Surveys for exoplanetary transits are usually limited not by photon noise but rather by the amount of red noise in their data. In particular, although the CoRoT space-based survey data are being carefully scrutinized, significant new sources of systematic noises are still being discovered. Recently, a magnitude-dependant systematic effect was discovered in the CoRoT data by Mazeh et al. and a phenomenological correction was proposed. Here we tie the observed effect to a particular type of effect, and in the process generalize the popular Sysrem algorithm to include external parameters in a simultaneous solution with the unknown effects. We show that a post-processing scheme based on this algorithm performs well and indeed allows for the detection of new transit-like signals that were not previously detected.

(40)Ar/(39)Ar ages and Sr-Nd-Pb-Os geochemistry of CAMP tholeiites from Western Maranhao basin (NE Brazil)

The Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP), emplaced at the Triassic-Jurassic (T-J) boundary (-200 Ma), is among the largest igneous provinces on Earth. The Maranhao basin in NE Brazil is located around 700 km inland and 2000 km from the site of the earliest Pangea disruption. The CAMP tholeiites occur only in the western part of the basin and have been described as low and high-Ti. Here we document the occurrence of two sub-groups among the high-Ti tholeiites in the Western Maranhao basin. The major and trace elements and the Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic ratios define three chemical groups corresponding to the low-Ti (TiO(2)< 1.3 wt.%), high-Ti (TiO(2)-2.0 wt.%) and evolved high-Ti (TiO(2 >)3 wt.%) western Maranhao basin tholeiites (WMBT). The new (40)Ar/(39)Ar plateau ages obtained on plagioclase separates for high-Ti (199.7 +/- 2.4 Ma) and evolved high-Ti WMBT (197.2 +/- 0.5 Ma and 198.2 +/- 0.6 Ma) are indistinguishable and identical to those of previously analyzed low-Ti WMBT (198.5 +/- 0.8 Ma) and to the mean (40)Ar/(39)Ar age of the CAMP (199 +/- 2.4 Ma). We also present the first Re-Os isotopic data for CAMP basalts. The low and high-Ti samples display mantle-like initial ((187)Os/(188)Os)(i) ranging from 0.1267 to 0.1299, while the evolved high-Ti samples are more radiogenic (((187)Os/ (188)Os)(i) up to 0.184) We propose that the high-Ti WMBT were derived from the sub-lithospheric asthenosphere, and contaminated during ascent by interaction with the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM). The evolved high-Ti WMBT were derived from the same asthenospheric source but experienced crustal contamination. The chemical characteristics of the low-Ti group can be explained by partial melting of the most fertile portions of the SCLM metasomatized during paleo-subduction. Alternatively, the low-Ti WMBT could be derived from the sub-lithospheric asthenosphere but the resulting melts may have undergone contamination by the SCLM. The occurrences of high-Ti basalts are apparently not restricted to the area of initial continental disruption which may bring into question previous interpretations such as those relating high-Ti CAMP magmatism to the initiation of Atlantic ridge spreading or as the expression of a deep mantle plume. We propose that the CAMP magmatism in the Maranhao basin may be attributed to local hotter mantle conditions due to the combined effects of edge-driven convection and large-scale mantle warming under the Pangea supercontinent. The involvement of a mantle-plume with asthenosphere-like isotopic characteristics cannot be ruled out either as one of the main source components of the WMBT or as a heat supplier. (C) 2010 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.

Nanostructured europium oxide thin films deposited by pulsed laser ablation of a metallic target in a He buffer atmosphere

Nanostrucured europium oxide and hydroxide films were obtained by pulsed Nd:YAG (532 nm) laser ablation of a europium metallic target, in the presence of a 1 mbar helium buffer atmosphere. Both the produced film and the ambient plasma were characterized. The plasma was monitored by an electrostatic probe, for plume expansion in vacuum or in the presence of the buffer atmosphere. The time evolution of the ion saturation current was obtained for several probe to substrate distances. The results show the splitting of the plume into two velocity groups, being the lower velocity profile associated with metal cluster formation within the plume. The films were obtained in the presence of helium atmosphere, for several target-to-substrate distances. They were analyzed by Rutherford backscattering spectrometry, x-ray diffraction, and atomic force microscopy, for as-deposited and 600 degrees C treated-in-air samples. The results show that the as-deposited samples are amorphous and have chemical composition compatible with europium hydroxide. The thermally treated samples show x-ray diffraction peaks of Eu(2)O(3), with chemical composition showing excess oxygen. Film nanostructuring was shown to be strongly correlated with cluster formation, as shown by velocity splitting in probe current versus time plots. (C) 2010 American Vacuum Society. [DOI: 10.1116/1.3457784]

Major- and trace-element composition of olivine, perovskite, clinopyroxene, Cr-Fe-Ti oxides, phlogopite and host kamafugites and kimberlites, Alto Paranaiba, Brazil

An integrated whole-rock petrographic and geochemical study has been carried out on kamafugites and kimberlites of the Late Cretaceous Alto Paranaiba igneous province, in Brazil, and their main minerals, olivine, clinopyroxene, perovskite, phlogopite, spinels and ilmenite. Perovskite is by far the dominant repository for light lanthanides, Nb, Ta, Th and U, and occasionally other elements, reaching concentrations up to 3.4 x 10(4) chondrite values for light lanthanides and 105 chondrite for Th. A very strong fractionation between light and heavy lanthanides (chondrite-normalized La/Yb from similar to 175 to similar to 2000) is also observed. This is likely the first comprehensive dataset on natural perovskite. Clinopyroxene has variable trace-element contents. likely due to the different position of this phase in the crystallization sequence; Sc reaches values as high as 200 ppm whereas the lanthanides show very variable enrichment in light over heavy REE, and commonly show a negative Eu anomaly. The olivine, phlogopite (and tetra-ferriphlogopite), Cr-Ti oxide and ilmenite are substantially barren minerals for lanthanides and most other trace elements, with the exception of Ba, Cs and Rb in mica, and V, Nb and Ta in ilmenite. Estimated mineral/whole-rock partition coefficients for lanthanides in perovskite are similar to previous determinations, though much higher than those calculated in experiments with synthetic compositions, testifying once more to the complex behavior of these elements in a natural environment. The enormous potential for exploitation of lanthanides, Th, U and high-field-strength elements in the Brazilian kamafugites, kimberlites and related rocks is clearly shown.

Tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Neoproterozoic BIF-bearing Jacadigo Group, SW-Brazil

The Jacadigo Group contains one of the largest sedimentary iron and associated manganese deposits of the Neoproterozoic. Despite its great relevance, no detailed sedimentological study concerning the unit has been carried out to date. Here we present detailed sedimentological data and interpretation on depositional systems, system tracts, external controls on basin evolution, basin configuration and regional tectonic setting of the Jacadigo Basin. Six depositional systems were recognized: (I) an alluvial fan system; (II) a siliciclastic lacustrine system; (III) a fan-delta system; (IV) a bedload-dominated river system; (V) an iron formation-dominated lacustrine or marine gulf system; and (VI) a rimmed carbonate platform system. The interpreted depositional systems are related to three tectonic system tracts. The first four depositional systems are mainly made of continental siliciclastics and refer to the rift initiation to early rift climax stage; the lake/gulf system corresponds to the mid to late rift climax stage and the carbonate platform represents the immediate to late post rift stage (Bocaina Formation deposits of the Ediacaran fossil-bearing Corumba Group). The spatial distribution of the depositional systems and associated paleocurrent patterns indicate a WNW-ESE orientation of the master fault zone related to the formation of the Jacadigo Basin. Thus, the iron formations of the Jacadigo Group were deposited in a starved waterbody related to maximum fault displacement and accommodation rates in a restricted continental rift basin. The Fe-Si-Mn source was probably related to hydrothermal plume activity that reached the basin through the fault system during maximum fault displacement phases. Our results also suggest a restricted tectono-sedimentary setting for the type section of the Puga Formation. The Jacadigo Group and the Puga Formation, usually interpreted as glacial deposits, are readdressed here as basin margin gravitational deposits with no necessary relation to glacial processes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Induced polarization, resistivity, and self-potential: a case history of contamination evaluation due to landfill leakage

This article compares the efficiency of induced polarization (IP) and resistivity in characterizing a contamination plume due to landfill leakage in a typical tropical environment. The resistivity survey revealed denser electrical current flow that induced lower resistivity values due to the high ionic content. The increased ionic concentration diminished the distance of the ionic charges close to the membrane, causing a decrease in the IP phenomena. In addition, the self-potential (SP) method was used to characterize the preferential flow direction of the area. The SP method proved to be effective at determining the flow direction; it is also fast and economical. In this study, the resistivity results were better correlated with the presence of contamination (lower resistivity) than the IP (lower chargeability) data.

Denudation history of the Bocaina Plateau, Serra do Mar, southeastern Brazil: Relationships to Gondwana breakup and passive margin development

The Bocaina Plateau, which is situated on the eastern flank of the continental rift of southeastern Brazil, is the highest part of the Serra do Mar. Topographic relief in this area is suggested to be closely related to its complex tectono-magmatic evolution since the breakup of Western Gondwana and opening of the South Atlantic Ocean. Apatite fission track ages and track length distributions from 27 basement outcrops were determined to assess these hypotheses and reconstruct the denudation history of the Bocaina Plateau. The ages range between 303 +/- 32 and 46 +/- 5 Ma, and are significantly younger than the stratigraphic ages. Mean track lengths vary from 13.44 +/- 1.51 to 11.1 +/- 1.48 mu m, with standard deviations between 1.16 and 1.83 mu m. Contrasting ages within a single plateau and similar ages at different altitudes indicate a complex regional tectonothermal evolution. The thermal histories inferred from these data imply three periods of accelerated cooling related to the Early Cretaceous continental breakup, Early Cretaceous alkaline magmatism, and the Paleogene evolution of the continental rift of southeastern Brazil. The oldest fission track ages (>200 Ma) were obtained in the Serra do Mar region, suggesting that these areas were a long-lived source of sediments for the Parana, Bauru, and Santos basins. (C) 2010 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

THE SOUTHERN BRAZILIAN SHELF: GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS, QUATERNARY EVOLUTION AND SEDIMENT DISTRIBUTION

Extending from latitude 34 degrees S to 22 degrees S the Southern Brazilian shelf constitutes the only part of the Brazilian shelf with a subtropical to temperate environment. The studies on the different geological aspects of the area began in the 1960`s and have recently been reassessed after studies related to the determination of the Economic Exclusive Zone. In terms of morphology, the Southern Brazilian shelf may be divided into three sectors, the Sao Paulo Bight, the Florianopolis-Mostardas Sector and the Rio Grande Cone, characterized by conspicuous differences in terms of geological determining factors, bathymetry, declivities and the presence of canyons and channels. Despite the existence of hundreds of radiocarbon datings the sea level changes curve of southern Brazil during the Last Glacial Cycle is still a matter of debate. A recent controversy on the Middle and late Holocene sea level changes curve raised the question of the amplitude of the oscillations which occurred in the period. Also, a few but relatively consistent radiocarbon datings suggest the occurrence of a high sea level during Isotope Stage 3. In terms of sedimentary cover the Southern Brazilian shelf exhibits a very strong hydrodynamic control, both latitudinal and bathymetrical. The sector southward from 25 degrees S is characterized by the influence of the plume of water carrying sediments originating from the Rio de La Plata. Actually its presence is conspicuous up to 28 degrees S, with the area between this latitude and 25 degrees S constituting a transitional zone. In terms of bathymetry the outer shelf is marked by the ""floor-polisher"" effect of the Brazil Current, which is responsible for the maintenance of a relict facies in areas deeper than 100 meters.

Optimization Of Groundwater Remediation With New Efficient Parallel Algorithm For Global Optimization

Application of optimization algorithm to PDE modeling groundwater remediation can greatly reduce remediation cost. However, groundwater remediation analysis requires a computational expensive simulation, therefore, effective parallel optimization could potentially greatly reduce computational expense. The optimization algorithm used in this research is Parallel Stochastic radial basis function. This is designed for global optimization of computationally expensive functions with multiple local optima and it does not require derivatives. In each iteration of the algorithm, an RBF is updated based on all the evaluated points in order to approximate expensive function. Then the new RBF surface is used to generate the next set of points, which will be distributed to multiple processors for evaluation. The criteria of selection of next function evaluation points are estimated function value and distance from all the points known. Algorithms created for serial computing are not necessarily efficient in parallel so Parallel Stochastic RBF is different algorithm from its serial ancestor. The application for two Groundwater Superfund Remediation sites, Umatilla Chemical Depot, and Former Blaine Naval Ammunition Depot. In the study, the formulation adopted treats pumping rates as decision variables in order to remove plume of contaminated groundwater. Groundwater flow and contamination transport is simulated with MODFLOW-MT3DMS. For both problems, computation takes a large amount of CPU time, especially for Blaine problem, which requires nearly fifty minutes for a simulation for a single set of decision variables. Thus, efficient algorithm and powerful computing resource are essential in both cases. The results are discussed in terms of parallel computing metrics i.e. speedup and efficiency. We find that with use of up to 24 parallel processors, the results of the parallel Stochastic RBF algorithm are excellent with speed up efficiencies close to or exceeding 100%.

Design gráfico da pluma de contaminação por compostos orgânicos voláteiss utilizando software CAD na investigação de passivo ambiental em um posto revendedor de combustíveis em Natal/RN

Among the potentially polluting economic activities that compromise the quality of groundwater are the gas stations. The city of Natal has about 120 gas stations, of which only has an environmental license for operation. Discontinuities in the offices were notified by the Public Ministry of Rio Grande do Norte to carry out the environmental adaptations, among which is the investigation of environmental liabilities. The preliminary and confirmatory stages of this investigation consisted in the evaluation of soil gas surveys with two confirmatory chemical analysis of BTEX, PAH and TPH. To get a good evaluation and interpretation of results obtained in the field, it became necessary three-dimensional representation of them. We used a CAD software to graph the equipment installed in a retail service station fuel in Natal, as well as the plumes of contamination by volatile organic compounds. The tool was concluded that contamination is not located in the current system of underground storage of fuel development, but reflects the historical past in which tanks were removed not tight gasoline and diesel

Inês de Castro no romance contemporâneo português

Ines de Castro is a theme in literature from the fourteenth century. The historical fact of his death, in 1355, became a landmark in the history of Portugal and, since then, several literary texts from various genres, have dealt with this theme, this made the couple Pedro and Ines a myth of love passion, of love beyond the barriers of death, like Tristan and Isolde, Romeo and Juliet, Abelard and Heloise. The literary myth - or any picture that mythologize literature - is always prepared before culturally and works in the same way that so many others, this is, as an element of cultural identity, either collectively or individually, making it also a feature poetic. Thereby, is an archetype confirmed through time and eventually reveals a series of webs of the human psyche. Ines de Castro became the Portuguese myth of eternal love: she became queen after your dead. The persistence of the myth makes the love story of Pedro and Ines continue to produce texts of various literary genres. This study examines six contemporary historical novels, to show that the way actually this kind o novel does a new formulacion of Pedro e Ines mythical, because now it s different view likes the victim in Os lusiadas and other texts from the past. Collaborate to this news relacions between history and literature and a novelist's new stance in relation to historical facts that relate like reffering to novel. The intention is to show, through the novels chosen now Ines de Castro have different profiles than it had before in tradicional historic novels from the period of Romanticism and New Romanticism. Authored by Agustina Bessa-Luís, João Aguiar, António Cândido Franco, Seomara da Veiga Ferreira and Luis Rosa, the six novels studied show the circularity cultural of inesian myth showing this new character of the new person Ines in the contemporany historical novel