A Fully Bayesian Approach for Combining Multilevel Failure Information in Fault Tree Quantification and Corresponding Optimal Resource Allocation

This paper presents a fully Bayesian approach that simultaneously combines basic event and statistically independent higher event-level failure data in fault tree quantification. Such higher-level data could correspond to train, sub-system or system failure events. The full Bayesian approach also allows the highest-level data that are usually available for existing facilities to be automatically propagated to lower levels. A simple example illustrates the proposed approach. The optimal allocation of resources for collecting additional data from a choice of different level events is also presented. The optimization is achieved using a genetic algorithm.

Selection of Matching Variables in Community Health Intervention Trials

In a matched experimental design, the effectiveness of matching in reducing bias and increasing power depends on the strength of the association between the matching variable and the outcome of interest. In particular, in the design of a community health intervention trial, the effectiveness of a matched design, where communities are matched according to some community characteristic, depends on the strength of the correlation between the matching characteristic and the change in the health behavior being measured. We attempt to estimate the correlation between community characteristics and changes in health behaviors in four datasets from community intervention trials and observational studies. Community characteristics that are highly correlated with changes in health behaviors would potentially be effective matching variables in studies of health intervention programs designed to change those behaviors. Among the community characteristics considered, the urban-rural character of the community was the most highly correlated with changes in health behaviors. The correlations between Per Capita Income, Percent Low Income & Percent aged over 65 and changes in health behaviors were marginally statistically significant (p < 0.08).

On the postnatal development of the striate cortex (V1) in the tree shrew (Tupaia belangeri)

Histological serial sections, three-dimensional reconstructions and morphometry served to study the postnatal development of V1 in tree shrews. The main objectives were to evaluate the expansion of V1, the implications of its growth on the occipital cortex and, vice versa, the effects of the expanding neocortex on the topography of V1. The future V1 was identified on postnatal day 1 by its granular layer IV, covering the superior surface of the occipital cortices including the poles. A subdivision of layer IV, distinctive for the binocular part, was evident in the central region. V1 expanded continuously with age into all directions succeeded by the maturation of layering. The monocular part was recognized from day 15 onward, after the binocular part had reached its medial border. In reference to the retinotopic map of V1, regions emerged in a coherent temporo-spatial sequence delineating the retinal topography in a central to peripheral gradient beginning with the visual streak representation. The growth of V1 was greatest until tree shrews open their eyes, culminated during adolescence, and completed after a subsequent decrease in the young adult. Simultaneous expansion of the neocortex induced a shifting of V1. Translation and elongation of V1 entailed that the occipital cortex covered the superior colliculi along with a downward rotation of the poles. The enlargement of the occipital part of the hemispheres was in addition associated with the formation of a small occipital horn in the lateral ventricles, indicating an incipient 'true' occipital lobe harbouring mainly cortices involved in visual functions.

From EEG dependency multichannel matching pursuit to sparse topographic EEG decomposition

In this work, we present a multichannel EEG decomposition model based on an adaptive topographic time-frequency approximation technique. It is an extension of the Matching Pursuit algorithm and called dependency multichannel matching pursuit (DMMP). It takes the physiologically explainable and statistically observable topographic dependencies between the channels into account, namely the spatial smoothness of neighboring electrodes that is implied by the electric leadfield. DMMP decomposes a multichannel signal as a weighted sum of atoms from a given dictionary where the single channels are represented from exactly the same subset of a complete dictionary. The decomposition is illustrated on topographical EEG data during different physiological conditions using a complete Gabor dictionary. Further the extension of the single-channel time-frequency distribution to a multichannel time-frequency distribution is given. This can be used for the visualization of the decomposition structure of multichannel EEG. A clustering procedure applied to the topographies, the vectors of the corresponding contribution of an atom to the signal in each channel produced by DMMP, leads to an extremely sparse topographic decomposition of the EEG.

Seedling survival and growth of three ectomycorrhizal caesalpiniaceous tree species in a Central African rain forest

Tree recruitment is determined in part by the survivorship and growth of seedlings. Two seedling cohorts of the three most abundant caesalpiniaceous species forming groves at Korup, Cameroon, were followed from 1995/1997 to 2002, to investigate why Microberlinia bisulcata, the most abundant species, currently has very few recruits compared with Tetraberlinia korupensis and T. bifoliolata. Numbers of seedlings dying, and the heights and leaf numbers of survivors, were recorded on 30 occasions. Survivorship after 2.5 y was 30% for M. bisulcata and 59% for the similar Tetraberlinia spp. together. After 7 y the corresponding values were 4 and 21%. Growth of all species was slow for the first 4 y; but survivors of T. korupensis became 63% taller, as the other species stagnated, by 7 y. The poor recruitment of M. bisulcata was the result of its very low seedling survival. Within species, the tallest seedlings of M. bisulcata and T. bifoliolata, but medium-height ones of T. korupensis, survived longest. This was likely due to higher root allocation in T. korupensis. Seedling dynamics of M. bisulcata and T. korupensis over 7 y accorded well with relative abundances of adult trees; T. bifoliolata is predicted to recruit later.

Gluema korupensis (Sapotaceae), a new tree species from Korup National Park, Cameroon

Gluema korupensis Burgt (Sapotaceae), a new species from the southern part of Korup National Park in Cameroon, is described and illustrated. In total 176 trees 2 25 cm in stem diam. were found. The tree from which the holotype was collected was 42 m high and 125 cm in diam.; the largest tree was 238 cm in diam. The seeds are dispersed ballistically and sometimes by water

Synchronisation of the EDML and EDC ice cores for the last 52 kyr by volcanic signature matching

A common time scale for the EPICA ice cores from Dome C (EDC) and Dronning Maud Land (EDML) has been established. Since the EDML core was not drilled on a dome, the development of the EDML1 time scale for the EPICA ice core drilled in Dronning Maud Land was based on the creation of a detailed stratigraphic link between EDML and EDC, which was dated by a simpler 1D ice-flow model. The synchronisation between the two EPICA ice cores was done through the identification of several common volcanic signatures. This paper describes the rigorous method, using the signature of volcanic sulfate, which was employed for the last 52 kyr of the record. We estimated the discrepancies between the modelled EDC and EDML glaciological age scales during the studied period, by evaluating the ratio R of the apparent duration of temporal intervals between pairs of isochrones. On average R ranges between 0.8 and 1.2 corresponding to an uncertainty of up to 20% in the estimate of the time duration in at least one of the two ice cores. Significant deviations of R up to 1.4–1.5 are observed between 18 and 28 kyr before present (BP), where present is defined as 1950. At this stage our approach does not allow us unequivocally to find out which of the models is affected by errors, but assuming that the thinning function at both sites and accumulation history at Dome C (which was drilled on a dome) are correct, this anomaly can be ascribed to a complex spatial accumulation variability (which may be different in the past compared to the present day) upstream of the EDML core.