Modeling the Emergence of Social Structure from a Phylogenetic Point of View

Based on provious (Hemelrijk 1998; Puga-González, Hildenbrant & Hemelrijk 2009), we have developed an agent-based model and software, called A-KinGDom, which allows us to simulate the emergence of the social structure in a group of non-human primates. The model includes dominance and affiliative interactions and incorporate s two main innovations (preliminary dominance interactions and a kinship factor), which allow us to define four different attack and affiliative strategies. In accordance with these strategies, we compared the data obtained under four simulation conditions with the results obtained in a provious study (Dolado & Beltran 2012) involving empirical observations of a captive group of mangabeys (Cercocebus torquatus)

Modeling carbon sequestration and timber production in a regional case study

Abstract

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Toxicokinetic modeling of folpet fungicide and its ring-biomarkers of exposure in humans.

A human in vivo toxicokinetic model was built to allow a better understanding of the toxicokinetics of folpet fungicide and its key ring biomarkers of exposure: phthalimide (PI), phthalamic acid (PAA) and phthalic acid (PA). Both PI and the sum of ring metabolites, expressed as PA equivalents (PAeq), may be used as biomarkers of exposure. The conceptual representation of the model was based on the analysis of the time course of these biomarkers in volunteers orally and dermally exposed to folpet. In the model, compartments were also used to represent the body burden of folpet and experimentally relevant PI, PAA and PA ring metabolites in blood and in key tissues as well as in excreta, hence urinary and feces. The time evolution of these biomarkers in each compartment of the model was then mathematically described by a system of coupled differential equations. The mathematical parameters of the model were then determined from best fits to the time courses of PI and PAeq in blood and urine of five volunteers administered orally 1 mg kg(-1) and dermally 10 mg kg(-1) of folpet. In the case of oral administration, the mean elimination half-life of PI from blood (through feces, urine or metabolism) was found to be 39.9 h as compared with 28.0 h for PAeq. In the case of a dermal application, mean elimination half-life of PI and PAeq was estimated to be 34.3 and 29.3 h, respectively. The average final fractions of administered dose recovered in urine as PI over the 0-96 h period were 0.030 and 0.002%, for oral and dermal exposure, respectively. Corresponding values for PAeq were 24.5 and 1.83%, respectively. Finally, the average clearance rate of PI from blood calculated from the oral and dermal data was 0.09 ± 0.03 and 0.13 ± 0.05 ml h(-1) while the volume of distribution was 4.30 ± 1.12 and 6.05 ± 2.22 l, respectively. It was not possible to obtain the corresponding values from PAeq data owing to the lack of blood time course data.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Combining digital elevation model analysis and run-out modeling to characterize hazard posed by a potentially unstable rock slope at Turtle Mountain, Alberta, Canada

Turtle Mountain in Alberta, Canada has become an important field laboratory for testing different techniques related to the characterization and monitoring of large slope mass movements as the stability of large portions of the eastern face of the mountain is still questionable. In order to better quantify the volumes potentially unstable and the most probable failure mechanisms and potential consequences, structural analysis and runout modeling were preformed. The structural features of the eastern face were investigated using a high resolution digital elevation model (HRDEM). According to displacement datasets and structural observations, potential failure mechanisms affecting different portions of the mountain have been assessed. The volumes of the different potentially unstable blocks have been calculated using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) method. Based on the volume estimation, two and three dimensional dynamic runout analyses have been performed. Calibration of this analysis is based on the experience from the adjacent Frank Slide and other similar rock avalanches. The results will be used to improve the contingency plans within the hazard area.

Cost Analysis of Long-Term Treatment of Patients with Symptomatic Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) with Esomeprazole On-Demand Treatment or Esomeprazole Continuous Treatment: An Open, Randomized, Multicenter Study in Switzerland.

Objectives: To assess the difference in direct medical costs between on-demand (OD) treatment with esomeprazole (E) 20 mg and continuous (C) treatment with E 20 mg q.d. from a clinical practice view in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) symptoms. Methods: This open, randomized study (ONE: on-demand Nexium evaluation) compared two long-term management options with E 20 mg in endoscopically uninvestigated patients seeking primary care for GERD symptoms who demonstrated complete relief of symptoms after an initial treatment of 4 weeks with E 40 mg. Data on consumed quantities of all cost items were collected in the study, while data on prices during the time of study were collected separately. The analysis was done from a societal perspective. Results: Forty-nine percent (484 of 991) of patients randomized to the OD regimen and 46% (420 of 913) of the patients in the C group had at least one contact with the investigator that would have occurred nonprotocol-driven. The difference of the adjusted mean direct medical costs between the treatment groups was CHF 88.72 (95% confidence interval: CHF 41.34-153.95) in favor of the OD treatment strategy (Wilcoxon rank-sum test: P < 0.0001). Adjusted direct nonmedical costs and productivity loss were similar in both groups. Conclusions: The adjusted direct medical costs of a 6-month OD treatment with esomeprazole 20 mg in uninvestigated patients with symptoms of GERD were significantly lower compared with a continuous treatment with E 20 mg once a day. The OD therapy represents a cost-saving alternative to the continuous treatment strategy with E.

Estimated Traffic and Vehicle-Miles of Travel on Iowa's Proposed Interstate System 1956-1975

Data tables describing the length and vehicle-miles of travel on Iowa's 1975 proposed interstate system, broken down by interstate. No text is available.

Improved Employment Data for Transportation Planning, 1998

Transportation planners typically use census data or small sample surveys to help estimate work trips in metropolitan areas. Census data are cheap to use but are only collected every 10 years and may not provide the answers that a planner is seeking. On the other hand, small sample survey data are fresh but can be very expensive to collect. This project involved using database and geographic information systems (GIS) technology to relate several administrative data sources that are not usually employed by transportation planners. These data sources included data collected by state agencies for unemployment insurance purposes and for drivers licensing. Together, these data sources could allow better estimates of the following information for a metropolitan area or planning region: · Locations of employers (work sites); · Locations of employees; · Travel flows between employees’ homes and their work locations. The required new employment database was created for a large, multi-county region in central Iowa. When evaluated against the estimates of a metropolitan planning organization, the new database did allow for a one to four percent improvement in estimates over the traditional approach. While this does not sound highly significant, the approach using improved employment data to synthesize home-based work (HBW) trip tables was particularly beneficial in improving estimated traffic on high-capacity routes. These are precisely the routes that transportation planners are most interested in modeling accurately. Therefore, the concept of using improved employment data for transportation planning was considered valuable and worthy of follow-up research.

Modeling morphogen gradient formation from arbitrary realistically shaped sources.

Much of the analytical modeling of morphogen profiles is based on simplistic scenarios, where the source is abstracted to be point-like and fixed in time, and where only the steady state solution of the morphogen gradient in one dimension is considered. Here we develop a general formalism allowing to model diffusive gradient formation from an arbitrary source. This mathematical framework, based on the Green's function method, applies to various diffusion problems. In this paper, we illustrate our theory with the explicit example of the Bicoid gradient establishment in Drosophila embryos. The gradient formation arises by protein translation from a mRNA distribution followed by morphogen diffusion with linear degradation. We investigate quantitatively the influence of spatial extension and time evolution of the source on the morphogen profile. For different biologically meaningful cases, we obtain explicit analytical expressions for both the steady state and time-dependent 1D problems. We show that extended sources, whether of finite size or normally distributed, give rise to more realistic gradients compared to a single point-source at the origin. Furthermore, the steady state solutions are fully compatible with a decreasing exponential behavior of the profile. We also consider the case of a dynamic source (e.g. bicoid mRNA diffusion) for which a protein profile similar to the ones obtained from static sources can be achieved.

Public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on JUPITER Modeling study from a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on the Justification for the Use of Statins in Primary Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin Study (JUPITER). METHODS: We studied 2268 adults aged 35-75 without cardiovascular disease in a population-based study in Switzerland in 2003-2006. We assessed the eligibility for statins according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) guidelines, and by adding "strict" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L and LDL-cholesterol <3.4mmol/L), and "extended" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L alone) JUPITER-like criteria. We estimated the proportion of CHD deaths potentially prevented over 10years in the Swiss population. RESULTS: Fifteen % were already taking statins, 42% were eligible by ATPIII guidelines, 53% by adding "strict", and 62% by adding "extended" criteria, with a total of 19% newly eligible. The number needed to treat with statins to avoid one CHD death over 10years was 38 for ATPIII, 84 for "strict" and 92 for "extended" JUPITER-like criteria. ATPIII would prevent 17% of CHD deaths, compared with 20% for ATPIII+"strict" and 23% for ATPIII + "extended" criteria (+6%). CONCLUSION: Implementing JUPITER-like strategies would make statin prescribing for primary prevention more common and less efficient than it is with current guidelines.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.