An overview of decadal to century time-scale variability in the climate system

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Time scales extracted from high-resolution proxy records and observations indicate that the spectrum of climate variability exhibits significant power in the range of decades to centuries superimposed on a red-noise continuum. The classical view of climate variability is based on the concept that observed fluctuations have their origin in periodic forcings on the same time scale. ... Instead, it is proposed that these fluctuations are linked to interactions within and between the different climate system components.

Determining the role of linear and nonlinear interactions in records of climate change: possible solar influences in annual to century-scale records

Time series analysis methods have traditionally helped in identifying the role of various forcing mechanisms in influencing climate change. A challenge to understanding decadal and century-scale climate change has been that the linkages between climate changes and potential forcing mechanisms such as solar variability are often uncertain. However, most studies have focused on the role of climate forcing and climate response within a strictly linear framework. Nonlinear time series analysis procedures provide the opportunity to analyze the role of climate forcing and climate responses between different time scales of climate change. An example is provided by the possible nonlinear response of paleo-ENSO-scale climate changes as identified from coral records to forcing by the solar cycle at longer time scales.

Offshore coho salmon populations near the Pacific Northwest and large-scale atmospheric events

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Catch of coho salmon off the coast of Washington and Oregon since 1925 appears to be related to large-scale events in the atmosphere, which in turn affect ocean currents and coastal upwelling intensities in the northeastern Pacific. At least two time scales of variations can be identified. The first is that of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon giving rise to an irregular cycle of between 3 to 7 years. ... The second time scale of variation seems to have a periodicity of about 20 years, although this is based on a limited dataset. ... This paper endeavors to describe how, if real, these atmospheric/oceanic effects are integrated and might affect the salmon catch. The possibility must also be considered that the atmospheric events are symbiotically related to the oceanic events and, further, that both may be enmeshed in even longer-term variability of climate.

Interannual to decadal time-scale variations in glacier mass balance [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The mass balance of glaciers depends on the seasonal variation in precipitation, temperature, and insolation. For glaciers in western North America, these meteorological variables are influenced by the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the northern Pacific Ocean. The purpose of this study is to gain a better understanding of the relationship between mass balance at glaciers in western North America and the large-scale atmospheric effects at interannual and decadal time scales.

Evidence for changes in large-scale upwelling in the California Current over the past 700 years [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Bidecadal radiocarbon measurements on tree rings provide a detailed series of carbon-14 activities at isotopic equilibrium with atmospheric carbon dioxide. ... Most marine environments do not permit development of a comparable series of carbon-14 ages with which to compare the terrestrial tree ring series. However, we have recently begun work on such a series using material from the varved sediments of the Santa Barbara Basin off southern California. ... We now have a nearly continuous record of carbon-14 dates representing the age of the water over the upper 100 meters. ... The ocean reservoir ages show an increase prior to 1450 and a progressive decrease with time after 1450. Although there may be other explanations, we believe this trend is principally the result of changes in large-scale upwelling of water from below 500 meters. These changes were probably also associated with changes in the intensity of the California Current.

Response of Pacific Northwest vegetation to large-scale changes in climate during the last 100,000 years [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Paleoclimatic variations in western North America depend on a hierarchy of temporal and spatial controls that can be examined using a combination of modeling studies and data synthesis. ... The regional vegetation response to large-scale changes in the climate system of the last 21,000 years is used as a conceptual model to help explain earlier vegetation and climate at two localities.