Cross-sector surveys assessing perceptions of key stakeholders towards barriers, concerns and facilitators to the appropriate use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Appropriately conducted adaptive designs (ADs) offer many potential advantages over conventional trials. They make better use of accruing data, potentially saving time, trial participants, and limited resources compared to conventional, fixed sample size designs. However, one can argue that ADs are not implemented as often as they should be, particularly in publicly funded confirmatory trials. This study explored barriers, concerns, and potential facilitators to the appropriate use of ADs in confirmatory trials among key stakeholders. Methods We conducted three cross-sectional, online parallel surveys between November 2014 and January 2015. The surveys were based upon findings drawn from in-depth interviews of key research stakeholders, predominantly in the UK, and targeted Clinical Trials Units (CTUs), public funders, and private sector organisations. Response rates were as follows: 30(55 %) UK CTUs, 17(68 %) private sector, and 86(41 %) public funders. A Rating Scale Model was used to rank barriers and concerns in order of perceived importance for prioritisation. Results Top-ranked barriers included the lack of bridge funding accessible to UK CTUs to support the design of ADs, limited practical implementation knowledge, preference for traditional mainstream designs, difficulties in marketing ADs to key stakeholders, time constraints to support ADs relative to competing priorities, lack of applied training, and insufficient access to case studies of undertaken ADs to facilitate practical learning and successful implementation. Associated practical complexities and inadequate data management infrastructure to support ADs were reported as more pronounced in the private sector. For funders of public research, the inadequate description of the rationale, scope, and decision-making criteria to guide the planned AD in grant proposals by researchers were all viewed as major obstacles. Conclusions There are still persistent and important perceptions of individual and organisational obstacles hampering the use of ADs in confirmatory trials research. Stakeholder perceptions about barriers are largely consistent across sectors, with a few exceptions that reflect differences in organisations’ funding structures, experiences and characterisation of study interventions. Most barriers appear connected to a lack of practical implementation knowledge and applied training, and limited access to case studies to facilitate practical learning. Keywords: Adaptive designs; flexible designs; barriers; surveys; confirmatory trials; Phase 3; clinical trials; early stopping; interim analyses

A study of adaptive thermal comfort in a well-controlled climate chamber

This paper aims to critically examine the application of Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) in an air-conditioned environment in the hot-humid climate region. Experimental studies have been conducted in a climate chamber in Chongqing, China, from 2008 to 2010. A total of 440 thermal responses from participants were obtained. Data analysis reveals that the PMV overestimates occupants' mean thermal sensation in the warm environment (PMV > 0) with a mean bias of 0.296 in accordance with the ASHRAE thermal sensation scales. The Bland–Altman method has been applied to assess the agreement of the PMV and Actual Mean Vote (AMV) and reveals a lack of agreement between them. It is identified that habituation due to the past thermal experience of a long-term living in a specific region could stimulate psychological adaptation. The psychological adaptation can neutralize occupants’ actual thermal sensation by moderating the thermal sensibility of the skin. A thermal sensation empirical model and a PMV-revised index are introduced for air-conditioned indoor environments in hot-humid regions. As a result of habituation, the upper limit effective thermal comfort temperature SET* can be increased by 1.6 °C in a warm season based on the existing international standard. As a result, a great potential for energy saving from the air-conditioning system in summer could be achieved.

Adaptive evolution toward larger size in mammals

The notion that large body size confers some intrinsic advantage to biological species has been debated for centuries. Using a phylogenetic statistical approach that allows the rate of body size evolution to vary across a phylogeny, we find a long-term directional bias toward increasing size in the mammals. This pattern holds separately in 10 of 11 orders for which sufficient data are available and arises from a tendency for accelerated rates of evolution to produce increases, but not decreases, in size. On a branch-by-branch basis, increases in body size have been more than twice as likely as decreases, yielding what amounts to millions and millions of years of rapid and repeated increases in size away from the small ancestral mammal. These results are the first evidence, to our knowledge, from extant species that are compatible with Cope’s rule: the pattern of body size increase through time observed in the mammalian fossil record. We show that this pattern is unlikely to be explained by several nonadaptive mechanisms for increasing size and most likely represents repeated responses to new selective circumstances. By demonstrating that it is possible to uncover ancient evolutionary trends from a combination of a phylogeny and appropriate statistical models, we illustrate how data from extant species can complement paleontological accounts of evolutionary history, opening up new avenues of investigation for both.

Adaptive climate change governance for urban resilience

Climate change poses new challenges to cities and new flexible forms of governance are required that are able to take into account the uncertainty and abruptness of changes. The purpose of this paper is to discuss adaptive climate change governance for urban resilience. This paper identifies and reviews three traditions of literature on the idea of transitions and transformations, and assesses to what extent the transitions encompass elements of adaptive governance. This paper uses the open source Urban Transitions Project database to assess how urban experiments take into account principles of adaptive governance. The results show that: the experiments give no explicit information of ecological knowledge; the leadership of cities is primarily from local authorities; and evidence of partnerships and anticipatory or planned adaptation is limited or absent. The analysis shows that neither technological, political nor ecological solutions alone are sufficient to further our understanding of the analytical aspects of transition thinking in urban climate governance. In conclusion, the paper argues that the future research agenda for urban climate governance needs to explore further the links between the three traditions in order to better identify contradictions, complementarities or compatibilities, and what this means in practice for creating and assessing urban experiments.

A fast adaptive tunable RBF network for nonstationary systems

This paper describes a novel on-line learning approach for radial basis function (RBF) neural network. Based on an RBF network with individually tunable nodes and a fixed small model size, the weight vector is adjusted using the multi-innovation recursive least square algorithm on-line. When the residual error of the RBF network becomes large despite of the weight adaptation, an insignificant node with little contribution to the overall system is replaced by a new node. Structural parameters of the new node are optimized by proposed fast algorithms in order to significantly improve the modeling performance. The proposed scheme describes a novel, flexible, and fast way for on-line system identification problems. Simulation results show that the proposed approach can significantly outperform existing ones for nonstationary systems in particular.

A new adaptive multiple modelling approach for non-linear and non-stationary systems

This paper proposes a novel adaptive multiple modelling algorithm for non-linear and non-stationary systems. This simple modelling paradigm comprises K candidate sub-models which are all linear. With data available in an online fashion, the performance of all candidate sub-models are monitored based on the most recent data window, and M best sub-models are selected from the K candidates. The weight coefficients of the selected sub-model are adapted via the recursive least square (RLS) algorithm, while the coefficients of the remaining sub-models are unchanged. These M model predictions are then optimally combined to produce the multi-model output. We propose to minimise the mean square error based on a recent data window, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters, leading to a closed-form solution, so that maximal computational efficiency can be achieved. In addition, at each time step, the model prediction is chosen from either the resultant multiple model or the best sub-model, whichever is the best. Simulation results are given in comparison with some typical alternatives, including the linear RLS algorithm and a number of online non-linear approaches, in terms of modelling performance and time consumption.

A constrained recursive least squares algorithm for adaptive combination of multiple models

In this paper, we develop a novel constrained recursive least squares algorithm for adaptively combining a set of given multiple models. With data available in an online fashion, the linear combination coefficients of submodels are adapted via the proposed algorithm.We propose to minimize the mean square error with a forgetting factor, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters. Moreover an l1-norm constraint to the combination parameters is also applied with the aim to achieve sparsity of multiple models so that only a subset of models may be selected into the final model. Then a weighted l2-norm is applied as an approximation to the l1-norm term. As such at each time step, a closed solution of the model combination parameters is available. The contribution of this paper is to derive the proposed constrained recursive least squares algorithm that is computational efficient by exploiting matrix theory. The effectiveness of the approach has been demonstrated using both simulated and real time series examples.

A FOSSIL BULGE GLOBULAR CLUSTER REVEALED BY VERY LARGE TELESCOPE MULTI-CONJUGATE ADAPTIVE OPTICS

The globular cluster HP 1 is projected on the bulge, very close to the Galactic center. The Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics Demonstrator on the Very Large Telescope allowed us to acquire high-resolution deep images that, combined with first epoch New Technology Telescope data, enabled us to derive accurate proper motions. The cluster and bulge fields` stellar contents were disentangled through this process and produced an unprecedented definition in color-magnitude diagrams of this cluster. The metallicity of [Fe/H] approximate to -1.0 from previous spectroscopic analysis is confirmed, which together with an extended blue horizontal branch imply an age older than the halo average. Orbit reconstruction results suggest that HP 1 is spatially confined within the bulge.

Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics VLT imaging of the distant old open cluster FSR 1415

We employ the recently installed near-infrared Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics demonstrator (MAD) to determine the basic properties of a newly identified, old and distant, Galactic open cluster (FSR 1415). The MAD facility remarkably approaches the diffraction limit, reaching a resolution of 0.07 arcsec (in K), that is also uniform in a field of similar to 1.8 arcmin in diameter. The MAD facility provides photometry that is 50 per cent complete at K similar to 19. This corresponds to about 2.5 mag below the cluster main-sequence turn-off. This high-quality data set allows us to derive an accurate heliocentric distance of 8.6 kpc, a metallicity close to solar and an age of similar to 2.5 Gyr. On the other hand, the deepness of the data allows us to reconstruct (completeness-corrected) mass functions (MFs) indicating a relatively massive cluster, with a flat core MF. The Very Large Telescope/MAD capabilities will therefore provide fundamental data for identifying/analysing other faint and distant open clusters in the Galaxy III and IV quadrants.

Variety matters: adaptive genetic diversity and parasite load in two mouse opossums from the Brazilian Atlantic forest

The adaptive potential of a species to a changing environment and in disease defence is primarily based on genetic variation. Immune genes, such as genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), may thereby be of particular importance. In marsupials, however, there is very little knowledge about natural levels and functional importance of MHC polymorphism, despite their key role in the mammalian evolution. In a previous study, we discovered remarkable differences in the MHC class II diversity between two species of mouse opossums (Gracilinanus microtarsus, Marmosops incanus) from the Brazilian Atlantic forest, which is one of the most endangered hotspots for biodiversity conservation. Since the main forces in generating MHC diversity are assumed to be pathogens, we investigated in this study gastrointestinal parasite burden and functional associations between the individual MHC constitution and parasite load. We tested two contrasting scenarios, which might explain differences in MHC diversity between species. We predicted that a species with low MHC diversity would either be under relaxed selection pressure by low parasite diversity (`Evolutionary equilibrium` scenario), or there was a recent loss in MHC diversity leading to a lack of resistance alleles and increased parasite burden (`Unbalanced situation` scenario). In both species it became apparent that the MHC class II is functionally important in defence against gastrointestinal helminths, which was shown here for the first time in marsupials. On the population level, parasite diversity did not markedly differ between the two host species. However, we did observe considerable differences in the individual parasite load (parasite prevalence and infection intensity): while M. incanus revealed low MHC DAB diversity and high parasite load, G. microtarsus showed a tenfold higher population wide MHC DAB diversity and lower parasite burden. These results support the second scenario of an unbalanced situation.

MyD88 Signaling Is Required for Efficient Innate and Adaptive Immune Responses to Paracoccidioides brasiliensis Infection

The mechanisms that govern the initial interaction between Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, a primary dimorphic fungal pathogen, and cells of the innate immunity need to be clarified. Our previous studies showed that Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) and TLR4 regulate the initial interaction of fungal cells with macrophages and the pattern of adaptive immunity that further develops. The aim of the present investigation was to assess the role of MyD88, an adaptor molecule used by TLRs to activate genes of the inflammatory response in pulmonary paracoccidioidomycosis. Studies were performed with normal and MyD88(-/-) C57BL/6 mice intratracheally infected with P. brasiliensis yeast cells. MyD88(-/-) macrophages displayed impaired interaction with fungal yeast cells and produced low levels of IL-12, MCP-1, and nitric oxide, thus allowing increased fungal growth. Compared with wild-type (WT) mice, MyD88(-/-) mice developed a more severe infection of the lungs and had marked dissemination of fungal cells to the liver and spleen. MyD88(-/-) mice presented low levels of Th1, Th2, and Th17 cytokines, suppressed lymphoproliferation, and impaired influx of inflammatory cells to the lungs, and this group of cells comprised lower numbers of neutrophils, activated macrophages, and T cells. Nonorganized, coalescent granulomas, which contained high numbers of fungal cells, characterized the severe lesions of MyD88(-/-) mice; the lesions replaced extensive areas of several organs. Therefore, MyD88(-/-) mice were unable to control fungal growth and showed a significantly decreased survival time. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that MyD88 signaling is important in the activation of fungicidal mechanisms and the induction of protective innate and adaptive immune responses against P. brasiliensis.

Twofold adaptive partition of unity implicits

Partition of Unity Implicits (PUI) has been recently introduced for surface reconstruction from point clouds. In this work, we propose a PUI method that employs a set of well-observed solutions in order to produce geometrically pleasant results without requiring time consuming or mathematically overloaded computations. One feature of our technique is the use of multivariate orthogonal polynomials in the least-squares approximation, which allows the recursive refinement of the local fittings in terms of the degree of the polynomial. However, since the use of high-order approximations based only on the number of available points is not reliable, we introduce the concept of coverage domain. In addition, the method relies on the use of an algebraically defined triangulation to handle two important tasks in PUI: the spatial decomposition and an adaptive polygonization. As the spatial subdivision is based on tetrahedra, the generated mesh may present poorly-shaped triangles that are improved in this work by means a specific vertex displacement technique. Furthermore, we also address sharp features and raw data treatment. A further contribution is based on the PUI locality property that leads to an intuitive scheme for improving or repairing the surface by means of editing local functions.

ENO adaptive method for solving one-dimensional conservation laws

In this work an efficient third order non-linear finite difference scheme for solving adaptively hyperbolic systems of one-dimensional conservation laws is developed. The method is based oil applying to the solution of the differential equation an interpolating wavelet transform at each time step, generating a multilevel representation for the solution, which is thresholded and a sparse point representation is generated. The numerical fluxes obtained by a Lax-Friedrichs flux splitting are evaluated oil the sparse grid by an essentially non-oscillatory (ENO) approximation, which chooses the locally smoothest stencil among all the possibilities for each point of the sparse grid. The time evolution of the differential operator is done on this sparse representation by a total variation diminishing (TVD) Runge-Kutta method. Four classical examples of initial value problems for the Euler equations of gas dynamics are accurately solved and their sparse solutions are analyzed with respect to the threshold parameters, confirming the efficiency of the wavelet transform as an adaptive grid generation technique. (C) 2008 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional, fully adaptive simulations of phase-field fluid models

We present an efficient numerical methodology for the 31) computation of incompressible multi-phase flows described by conservative phase-field models We focus here on the case of density matched fluids with different viscosity (Model H) The numerical method employs adaptive mesh refinements (AMR) in concert with an efficient semi-implicit time discretization strategy and a linear, multi-level multigrid to relax high order stability constraints and to capture the flow`s disparate scales at optimal cost. Only five linear solvers are needed per time-step. Moreover, all the adaptive methodology is constructed from scratch to allow a systematic investigation of the key aspects of AMR in a conservative, phase-field setting. We validate the method and demonstrate its capabilities and efficacy with important examples of drop deformation, Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, and flow-induced drop coalescence (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved