Systematic and Day-to-Day Effects of Chemical-Derived Population Estimates on Wastewater-Based Drug Epidemiology

Population size is crucial when estimating population-normalized drug consumption (PNDC) from wastewater-based drug epidemiology (WBDE). Three conceptually different population estimates can be used: de jure (common census, residence), de facto (all persons within a sewer catchment), and chemical loads (contributors to the sampled wastewater). De facto and chemical loads will be the same where all households contribute to a central sewer system without wastewater loss. This study explored the feasibility of determining a de facto population and its effect on estimating PNDC in an urban community over an extended period. Drugs and other chemicals were analyzed in 311 daily composite wastewater samples. The daily estimated de facto population (using chemical loads) was on average 32% higher than the de jure population. Consequently, using the latter would systemically overestimate PNDC by 22%. However, the relative day-to-day pattern of drug consumption was similar regardless of the type of normalization as daily illicit drug loads appeared to vary substantially more than the population. Using chemical loads population, we objectively quantified the total methodological uncertainty of PNDC and reduced it by a factor of 2. Our study illustrated the potential benefits of using chemical loads population for obtaining more robust PNDC data in WBDE.

A Model to Estimate the Population Contributing to the Wastewater Using Samples Collected on Census Day

An important uncertainty when estimating per capita consumption of, for example, illicit drugs by means of wastewater analysis (sometimes referred to as “sewage epidemiology”) relates to the size and variability of the de facto population in the catchment of interest. In the absence of a day-specific direct population count any indirect surrogate model to estimate population size lacks a standard to assess associated uncertainties. Therefore, the objective of this study was to collect wastewater samples at a unique opportunity, that is, on a census day, as a basis for a model to estimate the number of people contributing to a given wastewater sample. Mass loads for a wide range of pharmaceuticals and personal care products were quantified in influents of ten sewage treatment plants (STP) serving populations ranging from approximately 3500 to 500 000 people. Separate linear models for population size were estimated with the mass loads of the different chemical as the explanatory variable: 14 chemicals showed good, linear relationships, with highest correlations for acesulfame and gabapentin. De facto population was then estimated through Bayesian inference, by updating the population size provided by STP staff (prior knowledge) with measured chemical mass loads. Cross validation showed that large populations can be estimated fairly accurately with a few chemical mass loads quantified from 24-h composite samples. In contrast, the prior knowledge for small population sizes cannot be improved substantially despite the information of multiple chemical mass loads. In the future, observations other than chemical mass loads may improve this deficit, since Bayesian inference allows including any kind of information relating to population size.

Estimating daily and diurnal variations of illicit drug use in Hong Kong: A pilot study of using wastewater analysis in an Asian metropolitan city

The measurement of illicit drug metabolites in raw wastewater is increasingly being adopted as an approach to objectively monitor population-level drug use, and is an effective complement to traditional epidemiological methods. As such, it has been widely applied in western countries. In this study, we utilised this approach to assess drug use patterns over nine days during April 2011 in Hong Kong. Raw wastewater samples were collected from the largest wastewater treatment plant serving a community of approximately 3.5 million people and analysed for excreted drug residues including cocaine, ketamine, methamphetamine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) and key metabolites using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. The overall drug use pattern determined by wastewater analysis was consistent with that have seen amongst people coming into contact with services in relation to substance use; among our target drugs, ketamine (estimated consumption: 1400–1600 mg/day/1000 people) was the predominant drug followed by methamphetamine (180–200 mg/day/1000 people), cocaine (160–180 mg/day/1000 people) and MDMA (not detected). The levels of these drugs were relatively steady throughout the monitoring period. Analysing samples at higher temporal resolution provided data on diurnal variations of drug residue loads. Elevated ratios of cocaine to benzoylecgonine were identified unexpectedly in three samples during the evening and night, providing evidence for potential dumping events of cocaine. This study provides the first application of wastewater analysis to quantitatively evaluate daily drug use in an Asian metropolitan community. Our data reinforces the benefit of wastewater monitoring to health and law enforcement authorities for strategic planning and evaluation of drug intervention strategies.

Degradability of creatinine under sewer conditions affects its potential to be used as biomarker in sewage epidemiology

Creatinine was proposed to be used as a population normalising factor in sewage epidemiology but its stability in the sewer system has not been assessed. This study thus aimed to evaluate the fate of creatinine under different sewer conditions using laboratory sewer reactors. The results showed that while creatinine was stable in wastewater only, it degraded quickly in reactors with the presence of sewer biofilms. The degradation followed first order kinetics with significantly higher rate in rising main condition than in gravity sewer condition. Additionally, daily loads of creatinine were determined in wastewater samples collected on Census day from 10 wastewater treatment plants around Australia. The measured loads of creatinine from those samples were much lower than expected and did not correlate with the populations across the sampled treatment plants. The results suggested that creatinine may not be a suitable biomarker for population normalisation purpose in sewage epidemiology, especially in sewer catchment with high percentage of rising mains.

Errors in the knee joint forces and moments during gait depending on the foot and knee prosthetic components

Background Previously studies showed that inverse dynamics based on motion analysis and force-plate is inaccurate compared to direct measurements for individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA). Indeed, direct measurements can appropriately take into account the absorption at the prosthetic foot and the resistance at the prosthetic knee. [1-3] However, these studies involved only a passive prosthetic knee. Aim The objective of the present study was to investigate if different types of prosthetic feet and knees can exhibit different levels of error in the knee joint forces and moments. Method Three trials of walking at self-selected speed were analysed for 9 TFAs (7 males and 2 females, 47±9 years old, 1.76±0.1 m 79±17 kg) with a motion analysis system (Qualisys, Goteborg, Sweden), force plates (Kitsler, Winterthur, Switzerland) and a multi-axial transducer (JR3, Woodland, USA) mounted above the prosthetic knee [1-17]. TFAs were all fitted with an osseointegrated implant system. The prostheses included different type of foot (N=5) and knee (N=3) components. The root mean square errors (RMSE) between direct measurements and the knee joint forces and moments estimated by inverse dynamics were computed for stance and swing phases of gait and expressed as a percentage of the measured amplitudes. A one-way Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA was performed (Statgraphics, Levallois-Perret, France) to analyse the effects of the prosthetic components on the RMSEs. Cross-effects and post-hoc tests were not analysed in this study. Results A significant effect (*) was found for the type of prosthetic foot on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.016), lateral-medial force during stance (p=0.009), adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.038), internal-external rotation moment during stance (p=0.014) and during swing (p=0.006), and flexion-extension moment during stance (p = 0.035). A significant effect (#) was found for the type of prosthetic knee on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.018) and adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.035). Discussion & Conclusion The RMSEs were larger during swing than during stance. It is because the errors on accelerations (as derived from motion analysis) become substantial with respect to the external loads. Thus, inverse dynamics during swing should be analysed with caution because the mean RMSEs are close to 50%. Conversely, there were fewer effects of the prosthetic components on RMSE during swing than during stance and, accordingly, fewer effects due to knees than feet. Thus, inverse dynamics during stance should be used with caution for comparison of different prosthetic components.

A new load distribution strategy for linear network with communication delays

In this paper, we propose a new load distribution strategy called `send-and-receive' for scheduling divisible loads, in a linear network of processors with communication delay. This strategy is designed to optimally utilize the network resources and thereby minimizes the processing time of entire processing load. A closed-form expression for optimal size of load fractions and processing time are derived when the processing load originates at processor located in boundary and interior of the network. A condition on processor and link speed is also derived to ensure that the processors are continuously engaged in load distributions. This paper also presents a parallel implementation of `digital watermarking problem' on a personal computer-based Pentium Linear Network (PLN) topology. Experiments are carried out to study the performance of the proposed strategy and results are compared with other strategies found in literature.

Bearing capacity of cold-formed unlipped channels with restrained flanges under EOF and IOF load cases

Bearing failure is a form of localized failure that occurs when thin-walled cold-formed steel sections are subjected to concentrated loads or support reactions. To determine the bearing capacity of cold-formed channel sections, a unified design equation with different bearing coefficients is given in the current North American specification AISI S100 and the Australian/New Zealand standard AS/NZS 4600. However, coefficients are not available for unlipped channel sections that are normally fastened to supports through their flanges. Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 includes bearing capacity equations for different load cases, but does not distinguish between fastened and unfastened support conditions. Therefore, an experimental study was conducted to determine the bearing capacities of these sections as used in floor systems. Twenty-eight web bearing tests on unlipped channel sections with restrained flanges were conducted under End One Flange (EOF) and Interior One Flange (IOF) load cases. Using the results from this study, a new equation was proposed within the AISI S100 and AS/NZS 4600 guidelines to determine the bearing capacities of cold-formed unlipped channels with flanges fastened to supports. A new design rule was also proposed based on the direct strength method.

An Efficient Load Distribution Strategy for a Distributed Linear Network of Processors with Communication Delays

In this paper, we present an improved load distribution strategy, for arbitrarily divisible processing loads, to minimize the processing time in a distributed linear network of communicating processors by an efficient utilization of their front-ends. Closed-form solutions are derived, with the processing load originating at the boundary and at the interior of the network, under some important conditions on the arrangement of processors and links in the network. Asymptotic analysis is carried out to explore the ultimate performance limits of such networks. Two important theorems are stated regarding the optimal load sequence and the optimal load origination point. Comparative study of this new strategy with an earlier strategy is also presented.

Time-temperature histories of spherical food products during bulk forced-air precooling

A general mathematical model for forced air precooling of spherical food products in bulk is developed. The food products are arranged inline to form a rectangular parallelepiped. Chilled air is blown along the height of the package. The governing equations for the transient two-dimensional conduction with internal heat generation in the product, simultaneous heat and mass transfer at the product-air interface and one-dimensional transient energy and species conservation equations for the moist air are solved numerically using finite difference methods. Results are presented in the form of time-temperature histories. Experiments are conducted with model foods in a laboratory scale air precooling tunnel. The agreement between the theoretical and experimental results is found to be good. In general, a single product analysis fails to predict the precooling characteristics of bulk loads of food products. In the range of values investigated, the respiration heat is found to have a negligible effect.

Instability of laminated composite thin-walled open-section beams

Instability of thin-walled open-section laminated composite beams is studied using the finite element method. A two-noded, 8 df per node thin-walled open-section laminated composite beam finite element has been used. The displacements of the element reference axis are expressed in terms of one-dimensional first order Hermite interpolation polynomials, and line member assumptions are invoked in formulation of the elastic stiffness matrix and geometric stiffness matrix. The nonlinear expressions for the strains occurring in thin-walled open-section beams, when subjected to axial, flexural and torsional loads, are incorporated in a general instability analysis. Several problems for which continuum solutions (exact/approximate) are possible have been solved in order to evaluate the performance of finite element. Next its applicability is demonstrated by predicting the buckling loads for the following problems of laminated composites: (i) two layer (45°/−45°) composite Z section cantilever beam and (ii) three layer (0°/45°/0°) composite Z section cantilever beam.

Sediment concentration prediction and statistical evaluation for annual load estimation

We consider the development of statistical models for prediction of constituent concentration of riverine pollutants, which is a key step in load estimation from frequent flow rate data and less frequently collected concentration data. We consider how to capture the impacts of past flow patterns via the average discounted flow (ADF) which discounts the past flux based on the time lapsed - more recent fluxes are given more weight. However, the effectiveness of ADF depends critically on the choice of the discount factor which reflects the unknown environmental cumulating process of the concentration compounds. We propose to choose the discount factor by maximizing the adjusted R-2 values or the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The R2 values are also adjusted to take account of the number of parameters in the model fit. The resulting optimal discount factor can be interpreted as a measure of constituent exhaustion rate during flood events. To evaluate the performance of the proposed regression estimators, we examine two different sampling scenarios by resampling fortnightly and opportunistically from two real daily datasets, which come from two United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations located in Des Plaines River and Illinois River basin. The generalized rating-curve approach produces biased estimates of the total sediment loads by -30% to 83%, whereas the new approaches produce relatively much lower biases, ranging from -24% to 35%. This substantial improvement in the estimates of the total load is due to the fact that predictability of concentration is greatly improved by the additional predictors.

Load estimation with uncertainties from opportunistic sampling data: A semiparametric approach

We consider estimating the total load from frequent flow data but less frequent concentration data. There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates that minimizes the biases and makes use of informative predictive variables. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized rating-curve approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, such as the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and the discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. Forming this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach for two rivers delivering to the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia. One is a data set from the Burdekin River, and consists of the total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) and gauged flow for 1997. The other dataset is from the Tully River, for the period of July 2000 to June 2008. For NO(x) Burdekin, the new estimates are very similar to the ratio estimates even when there is no relationship between the concentration and the flow. However, for the Tully dataset, by incorporating the additional predictive variables namely the discounted flow and flow phases (rising or recessing), we substantially improved the model fit, and thus the certainty with which the load is estimated.

Optimal scheduling of hydro-thermal power systems under shortage

The problem of optimal scheduling of the generation of a hydro-thermal power system that is faced with a shortage of energy is studied. The deterministic version of the problem is first analyzed, and the results are then extended to cases where the loads and the hydro inflows are random variables.

Flood related loss and recovery of intertidal seagrass meadows in southern Queensland, Australia

The loss and recovery of intertidal seagrass meadows were assessed following the flood related catastrophic loss of seagrass meadows in February 1999 in the Sandy Strait, Queensland. Region wide recovery rates of intertidal meadows following the catastrophic disturbance were assessed by mapping seagrass abundance in the northern Great Sandy Strait region prior to and on 3 occasions after widespread loss of seagrass. Meadow-scale assessments of seagrass loss and recovery focussed on two existing Zostera capricorni monitoring meadows in the region. Mapping surveys showed that approximately 90% of intertidal seagrasses in the northern Great Sandy Strait disappeared after the February 1999 flooding of the Mary River. Full recovery of all seagrass meadows took 3 years. At the two study sites (Urangan and Wanggoolba Creek) the onset of Z. capricorni germination following the loss of seagrass occurred 14 months post-flood at Wanggoolba Creek, and at Urangan it took 20 months for germination to occur. By February 2001 (24 months post-flood) seagrass abundance at Wanggoolba Creek sites was comparable to pre-flood abundance levels and full recovery at Urangan sites was complete in August 2001 (31 months post-flood). Reduced water quality characterised by 2–3 fold increases in turbidity and nutrient concentrations during the 6 months following the flood was followed by a 95% loss of seagrass meadows in the region. Reductions in available light due to increased flood associated turbidity in February 1999 were the likely cause of seagrass loss in the Great Sandy Strait region, southern Queensland. Although seasonal cues influence the germination of Z. capricorni, the temporal variation in the onset of seed germination between sites suggests that germination following seagrass loss may be dependent on other factors (eg. physical and chemical characteristics of sediments and water). Elevated dissolved nitrogen concentrations during 1999 at Wanggoolba Creek suggest that this site received higher loads of sediments and nutrients from flood waters than Urangan. The germination of seeds at Wanggoolba Creek one year prior to Urangan coincides with relatively low suspended sediment concentrations in Wanggoolba Creek waters. The absence of organic rich sediments at Urangan for many months following their removal during the 1999 flood may also have inhibited seed germination. Data from population cohort analyses and population growth rates showed that rhizome weight and rhizome elongation rates increased over time, consistent with rapid growth during increases in temperature and light availability from May to October

An overview of land application of pig effluent-P using soil P chemistry and mass balance calculations.

Attention is directed at land application of piggery effluent (containing urine, faeces, water, and wasted feed) as a potential source of water resource contamination with phosphorus (P). This paper summarises P-related properties of soil from 0-0.05 m depth at 11 piggery effluent application sites, in order to explore the impact that effluent application has had on the potential for run-off transport of P. The sites investigated were situated on Alfisol, Mollisol, Vertisol, and Spodosol soils in areas that received effluent for 1.5-30 years (estimated effluent-P applications of 100-310000 kg P/ha in total). Total (PT), bicarbonate extractable (PB), and soluble P forms were determined for the soil (0-0.05 m) at paired effluent and no-effluent sites, as well as texture, oxalate-extractable Fe and Al, organic carbon, and pH. All forms of soil P at 0-0.05 m depth increased with effluent application (PB at effluent sites was 1.7-15 times that at no-effluent sites) at 10 of the 11 sites. Increases in PB were strongly related to net P applications (regression analysis of log values for 7 sites with complete data sets: 82.6 % of variance accounted for, p <0.01). Effluent irrigation tended to increase the proportion of soil PT in dilute CaCl2-extractable forms (PTC: effluent average 2.0 %; no-effluent average 0.6%). The proportion of PTC in non-molybdate reactive forms (centrifuged supernatant) decreased (no-effluent average, 46.4 %; effluent average, 13.7 %). Anaerobic lagoon effluent did not reliably acidify soil, since no consistent relationship was observed for pH with effluent application. Soil organic carbon was increased in most of the effluent areas relative to the no-effluent areas. The four effluent areas where organic carbon was reduced had undergone intensive cultivation and cropping. Current effluent management at many of the piggeries failed to maximise the potential for waste P recapture. Ten of the case-study effluent application areas have received effluent-P in excess of crop uptake. While this may not represent a significant risk of leaching where sorption retains P, it has increased the risk of transport of P by run-off. Where such sites are close to surface water, run-off P loads should be managed.