Risk factors associated with hantavirosis fatality: a regional analysis from a case-control study in Brazil

Introduction: In Brazil, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) has a high lethality rate that varies by region. This study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with fatal hantavirosis. Methods: This study was a case-control study that included all laboratory confirmed cases of hantavirosis. The cases were stratified by the different Brazilian regions using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System. “Cases” were patients who progressed to death, whereas “controls” were patients who were cured. The odds ratio (OR) and the adjusted OR were calculated. Results: Overall, 158 cases and 281 controls were included in this study. In the Midwest region, the cases were 60% less likely to present with flank pain, and the time between the beginning of symptoms and death was shorter than the time between the beginning of symptoms and a cure. In the Southeast region, the cases were 60% less likely to present with thrombocytopenia or reside in rural areas compared to those who progressed to a cure. Additionally, the cases sought medical assistance, notification and investigation more quickly than the controls. In the Southern region, the cases that died were 70% less likely to be male compared to the controls. Conclusions: HCPS manifests with nonspecific symptoms, and there are few published studies related to the condition, so determining a patient's therapeutic strategy is difficult. This study presents findings from different Brazilian regions and highlights the need for further investigations to improve comprehension about regional risk factors associated with hantavirosis and to reduce morbimortality.

Electrohysterogram signal component cataloging with spectral and time-frequency methods

The Electrohysterogram (EHG) is a new instrument for pregnancy monitoring. It measures the uterine muscle electrical signal, which is closely related with uterine contractions. The EHG is described as a viable alternative and a more precise instrument than the currently most widely used method for the description of uterine contractions: the external tocogram. The EHG has also been indicated as a promising tool in the assessment of preterm delivery risk. This work intends to contribute towards the EHG characterization through the inventory of its components which are: • Contractions; • Labor contractions; • Alvarez waves; • Fetal movements; • Long Duration Low Frequency Waves; The instruments used for cataloging were: Spectral Analysis, parametric and non-parametric, energy estimators, time-frequency methods and the tocogram annotated by expert physicians. The EHG and respective tocograms were obtained from the Icelandic 16-electrode Electrohysterogram Database. 288 components were classified. There is not a component database of this type available for consultation. The spectral analysis module and power estimation was added to Uterine Explorer, an EHG analysis software developed in FCT-UNL. The importance of this component database is related to the need to improve the understanding of the EHG which is a relatively complex signal, as well as contributing towards the detection of preterm birth. Preterm birth accounts for 10% of all births and is one of the most relevant obstetric conditions. Despite the technological and scientific advances in perinatal medicine, in developed countries, prematurity is the major cause of neonatal death. Although various risk factors such as previous preterm births, infection, uterine malformations, multiple gestation and short uterine cervix in second trimester, have been associated with this condition, its etiology remains unknown [1][2][3].

Arboviral diseases in the Western Brazilian Amazon: a perspective and analysis from a tertiary health & research center in Manaus, State of Amazonas

The Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado (FMT-HVD), located in Manaus, the capital of the State of Amazonas (Western Brazilian Amazon), is a pioneering institution in this region regarding the syndromic surveillance of acute febrile illness, including arboviral infections. Based on the data from patients at the FMT-HVD, we have detected recurrent outbreaks in Manaus by the four dengue serotypes in the past 15 years, with increasing severity of the disease. This endemicity has culminated in the simultaneous circulation of all four serotypes in 2011, the first time this has been reported in Brazil. Between 1996 and 2009, 42 cases of yellow fever (YF) were registered in the State of Amazonas, and 71.4% (30/42) were fatal. Since 2010, no cases have been reported. Because the introduction of the yellow fever virus into a large city such as Manaus, which is widely infested by Aedes mosquitoes, may pose a real risk of a yellow fever outbreak, efforts to maintain an appropriate immunization policy for the populace are critical. Manaus has also suffered silent outbreaks of Mayaro and Oropouche fevers lately, most of which were misdiagnosed as dengue fever. The tropical conditions of the State of Amazonas favor the existence of other arboviruses capable of producing human disease. Under this real threat, represented by at least 4 arboviruses producing human infections in Manaus and in other neighboring countries, it is important to develop an efficient public health surveillance strategy, including laboratories that are able to make proper diagnoses of arboviruses.

Two decades of tuberculosis in a city in Northeastern Brazil: advances and challenges in time and space

Abstract: INTRODUCTION This study presents two decades of epidemiological data on tuberculosis (TB), in order to understanding the disease profile and its spatiotemporal dynamics. METHODS This descriptive study was performed in the City of Olinda/Pernambuco, Brazil, from 1991-2010, and it analyzed new patients with TB living in the city. We used the χ²-test with a p-value <0.05 to identify differences in trends. Incidence and cluster distribution were identified using spatial scan statistics. RESULTS In total, 6202 new cases were recorded during the two decades. The highest incidence occurred in 1995 (110 cases/100,000 inhabitants), and the lowest occurred in 2009 (65 cases/100,000 inhabitants) (β=-1.44; R²=0.43; p=0.0018). The highest mortality occurred in 1998 (16 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), and the lowest occurred in 2008 (5 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) (β=-0.19; R²=0.17; p=0.07). There was a male predominance (65%), and ages ranged from 20-49 years (65%). There was a substantial increase in the number of patients that were cured after treatment (60% to 67%; p<0.001) as well as those tested for HIV (1.9% to 58.5%; p<0.001). During the first decade, clusters with p-values <0.05 included 29% of the total notified cases, and in the second decade, that percentage was 12%. CONCLUSIONS We observed a decreasing trend in incidence, which was significant, and mortality rates, which was not significant. The increased number of laboratory tests performed reflects advances in surveillance, and a reduction in the proportion of cases in primary clusters suggests, among other things, that the disease is spreading across the region.

Critical analysis of the allocation policy for liver transplantation in Brazil

Liver transplantation is now the standard treatment for end-stage liver disease. Given the shortage of liver donors and the progressively higher number of patients waiting for transplantation, improvements in patient selection and optimization of timing for transplantation are needed. Several solutions have been suggested, including increasing the donor pool; a fair policy for allocation, not permitting variables such as age, gender, and race, or third-party payer status to play any role; and knowledge of the natural history of each liver disease for which transplantation is offered. To observe ethical rules and distributive justice (guarantee to every citizen the same opportunity to get an organ), the "sickest first" policy must be used. Studies have demonstrated that death has no relationship with waiting time, but rather with the severity of liver disease at the time of inclusion. Thus, waiting time is no longer part of the United Network for Organ Sharing distribution criteria. Waiting time only differentiates between equally severely diseased patients. The authors have analyzed the waiting list mortality and 1-year survival for patients of the State of São Paulo, from July 1997 through January 2001. Only the chronological criterion was used. According to "Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de São Paulo" data, among all waiting list deaths, 82.2% occurred within the first year, and 37.6% within the first 3 months following inclusion. The allocation of livers based on waiting time is neither fair nor ethical, impairs distributive justice and human rights, and does not occur in any other part of the world.

Valuing an offshore exploration project through real options analysis

This thesis applied real options analysis to the valuation of an offshore oil exploration project, taking into consideration the several options typically faced by the management team of these projects. The real options process is developed under technical and price uncertainties, where it is considered that the mean reversion stochastic process is more adequate to describe the movement of oil price throught time. The valuation is realized to two case scenarios, being the first a simplified approach to develop the intuition of the used concepts, and the later a more complete cases that is resolved using both the binomial and trinomial processes to describe oil price movement. Real options methodology demonstrated to be capable of assessing and valuing the projects options, and of overcoming common capital budgeting methodologies flexibility limitation. The added value of the application of real options is evident, but so is the method's increased complexity, which adversely influence its widespread implementation.

Seismic vulnerability of existing masonry buildings: Nonlinear parametric analysis

Existing masonry structures are usually associated to a high seismic vulnerability, mainly due to the properties of the materials, weak connections between floors and load-bearing walls, high mass of the masonry walls and flexibility of the floors. For these reasons, the seismic performance of existing masonry structures has received much attention in the last decades. This study presents the parametric analysis taking into account the deviations on features of the gaioleiro buildings - Portuguese building typology. The main objective of the parametric analysis is to compare the seismic performance of the structure as a function of the variations of its properties with respect to the response of a reference model. The parametric analysis was carried out for two types of structural analysis, namely for the non-linear dynamic analysis with time integration and for the pushover analysis with distribution of forces proportional to the inertial forces of the structure. The Young's modulus of the masonry walls, Young's modulus of the timber floors, the compressive and tensile non-linear properties (strength and fracture energy) were the properties considered in both type of analysis. Additionally, in the dynamic analysis, the influences of the vis-cous damping and of the vertical component of the earthquake were evaluated. A pushover analysis proportional to the modal displacement of the first mode in each direction was also carried out. The results shows that the Young's modulus of the masonry walls, the Young's modulus of the timber floors and the compressive non-linear properties are the pa-rameters that most influence the seismic performance of this type of tall and weak existing masonry structures. Furthermore, it is concluded that that the stiffness of the floors influences significantly the strength capacity and the collapse mecha-nism of the numerical model. Thus, a study on the strengthening of the floors was also carried out. The increase of the thickness of the timber floors was the strengthening technique that presented the best seismic performance, in which the reduction of the out-of-plane displacements of the masonry walls is highlighted.

Masonry macro-block analysis

The structural analysis involves the definition of the model and selection of the analysis type. The model should represent the stiffness, the mass and the loads of the structure. The structures can be represented using simplified models, such as the lumped mass models, and advanced models resorting the Finite Element Method (FEM) and Discrete Element Method (DEM). Depending on the characteristics of the structure, different types of analysis can be used such as limit analysis, linear and non-linear static analysis and linear and non-linear dynamic analysis. Unreinforced masonry structures present low tensile strength and the linear analyses seem to not be adequate for assessing their structural behaviour. On the other hand, the static and dynamic non-linear analyses are complex, since they involve large time computational requirements and advanced knowledge of the practitioner. The non-linear analysis requires advanced knowledge on the material properties, analysis tools and interpretation of results. The limit analysis with macro-blocks can be assumed as a more practical method in the estimation of maximum load capacity of structure. Furthermore, the limit analysis require a reduced number of parameters, which is an advantage for the assessment of ancient and historical masonry structures, due to the difficult in obtaining reliable data.

Tunnel engineering – influence of the type and the quantity of measurements in the back analysis of geomechanical parameters

The monitoring data collected during tunnel excavation can be used in inverse analysis procedures in order to identify more realistic geomechanical parameters that can increase the knowledge about the interested formations. These more realistic parameters can be used in real time to adapt the project to the real structure in situ behaviour. However, monitoring plans are normally designed for safety assessment and not especially for the purpose of inverse analysis. In fact, there is a lack of knowledge about what types and quantity of measurements are needed to succeed in identifying the parameters of interest. Also, the optimisation algorithm chosen for the identification procedure may be important for this matter. In this work, this problem is addressed using a theoretical case with which a thorough parametric study was carried out using two optimisation algorithms based on different calculation paradigms, namely a conventional gradient-based algorithm and an evolution strategy algorithm. Calculations were carried for different sets of parameters to identify several combinations of types and amount of monitoring data. The results clearly show the high importance of the available monitoring data and the chosen algorithm for the success rate of the inverse analysis process.

Methodology for real-time adaptation of tunnels support using the observational method

The observational method in tunnel engineering allows the evaluation in real time of the actual conditions of the ground and to take measures if its behavior deviates considerably from predictions. However, it lacks a consistent and structured methodology to use the monitoring data to adapt the support system in real time. The definition of limit criteria above which adaptation is required are not defined and complex inverse analysis procedures (Rechea et al. 2008, Levasseur et al. 2010, Zentar et al. 2001, Lecampion et al. 2002, Finno and Calvello 2005, Goh 1999, Cui and Pan 2012, Deng et al. 2010, Mathew and Lehane 2013, Sharifzadeh et al. 2012, 2013) may be needed to consistently analyze the problem. In this paper a methodology for the real time adaptation of the support systems during tunneling is presented. In a first step limit criteria for displacements and stresses are proposed. The methodology uses graphics that are constructed during the project stage based on parametric calculations to assist in the process and when these graphics are not available, since it is not possible to predict every possible scenario, inverse analysis calculations are carried out. The methodology is applied to the “Bois de Peu” tunnel which is composed by two tubes with over 500 m long. High uncertainty levels existed concerning the heterogeneity of the soil and consequently in the geomechanical design parameters. The methodology was applied in four sections and the results focus on two of them. It is shown that the methodology has potential to be applied in real cases contributing for a consistent approach of a real time adaptation of the support system and highlight the importance of the existence of good quality and specific monitoring data to improve the inverse analysis procedure.

Bioactive dihydroxyfuranonaphthoquinones from the bark of Tabebuia incana A.H. Gentry (Bignoniaceae) and HPLC analysis of commercial pau d'arco and certified T.incana bark infusions

Tabebuia incana A.H. Gentry (Bignoniaceae) is a tree from the Brazilian Amazon having medicinal uses and is one several Tabebuia spp. known as pau d'arco or palo de arco in this region. Fractionation of the bark ethanolic extract afforded a mixture of 5 and 8-hydroxy-2-(1-hydroxyethyl)naphtho[2,3-b]furan-4,9-diones (1 and 2, respectively) identified on the basis of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), infrared (IR) and mass (MS) spectra, whose in vitro antimalarial and antitumor activity have been shown previously. This is the first study on T. incana bark, and 2 are described in this species for the first time. Also, high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis of T. incana bark tea revealed the presence of the 1 + 2 mixture peak corresponding to a concentration in the range 10-6-10-5 M. The chromatograms of teas prepared from commercial pau d' arco and T. incana bark were also studied and the presence of the 1 + 2 peak has potential for quality control of commercial plant materials.

Temporal analysis of CHAVE collection

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 9309

Improving buildings energy performance: comparison between simple payback period and life cycle costs analysis

The building sector is one of the Europeâ s main energy consumer, making buildings an important target for a wiser energy use, improving indoor comfort conditions and reducing the energy consumption. To achieve the European Union targets for energy consumption and carbon reductions it is crucial to act in new, but also in existing buildings, which constitute the majority of the building stock. In existing buildings, the significant improvement of their efficiency requires important investments. Therefore, costs are a major concern in the decision making process and the analysis of the cost effectiveness of the interventions is an important path in the guidance for the selection of the different renovation scenarios. The Portuguese thermal legislation considers the simple payback method for the calculations of the time for the return of the investment. However, this method does not take into consideration inflation, cash flows and cost of capital, as well as the future costs of energy and the building elements lifetime as it happens in a life cycle cost analysis. In order to understand the impact of the economic analysis method used in the choice of the renovation measures, a case study has been analysed using simple payback calculations and life cycle costs analysis. Overall results show that less far-reaching renovation measures are indicated when using the simple payback calculations which may be leading to solutions less cost-effective in a long run perspective.

Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.