The effects of environmental perturbation and measurement error on estimates of the shape parameter in the theta-logistic model of population regulation

The theta-logistic is a widely used generalisation of the logistic model of regulated biological processes which is used in particular to model population regulation. Then the parameter theta gives the shape of the relationship between per-capita population growth rate and population size. Estimation of theta from population counts is however subject to bias, particularly when there are measurement errors. Here we identify factors disposing towards accurate estimation of theta by simulation of populations regulated according to the theta-logistic model. Factors investigated were measurement error, environmental perturbation and length of time series. Large measurement errors bias estimates of theta towards zero. Where estimated theta is close to zero, the estimated annual return rate may help resolve whether this is due to bias. Environmental perturbations help yield unbiased estimates of theta. Where environmental perturbations are large, estimates of theta are likely to be reliable even when measurement errors are also large. By contrast where the environment is relatively constant, unbiased estimates of theta can only be obtained if populations are counted precisely Our results have practical conclusions for the design of long-term population surveys. Estimation of the precision of population counts would be valuable, and could be achieved in practice by repeating counts in at least some years. Increasing the length of time series beyond ten or 20 years yields only small benefits. if populations are measured with appropriate accuracy, given the level of environmental perturbation, unbiased estimates can be obtained from relatively short censuses. These conclusions are optimistic for estimation of theta. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

A Monte Carlo Approach for the Cook -Torrance Model

In this work we consider the rendering equation derived from the illumination model called Cook-Torrance model. A Monte Carlo (MC) estimator for numerical treatment of the this equation, which is the Fredholm integral equation of second kind, is constructed and studied.

Development and experimental identification of a biomechanical model of the trunk for functional electrical stimulation control in paraplegia

Objectives. Theoretic modeling and experimental studies suggest that functional electrical stimulation (FES) can improve trunk balance in spinal cord injured subjects. This can have a positive impact on daily life, increasing the volume of bimanual workspace, improving sitting posture, and wheelchair propulsion. A closed loop controller for the stimulation is desirable, as it can potentially decrease muscle fatigue and offer better rejection to disturbances. This paper proposes a biomechanical model of the human trunk, and a procedure for its identification, to be used for the future development of FES controllers. The advantage over previous models resides in the simplicity of the solution proposed, which makes it possible to identify the model just before a stimulation session ( taking into account the variability of the muscle response to the FES). Materials and Methods. The structure of the model is based on previous research on FES and muscle physiology. Some details could not be inferred from previous studies, and were determined from experimental data. Experiments with a paraplegic volunteer were conducted in order to measure the moments exerted by the trunk-passive tissues and artificially stimulated muscles. Data for model identification and validation also were collected. Results. Using the proposed structure and identification procedure, the model could adequately reproduce the moments exerted during the experiments. The study reveals that the stimulated trunk extensors can exert maximal moment when the trunk is in the upright position. In contrast, previous studies show that able-bodied subjects can exert maximal trunk extension when flexed forward. Conclusions. The proposed model and identification procedure are a successful first step toward the development of a model-based controller for trunk FES. The model also gives information on the trunk in unique conditions, normally not observable in able-bodied subjects (ie, subject only to extensor muscles contraction).

Results of an aqueous source term model for a radiological risk assessment of the Drigg LLW Site, U.K.

A radionuclide source term model has been developed which simulates the biogeochemical evolution of the Drigg low level waste (LLW) disposal site. The DRINK (DRIgg Near field Kinetic) model provides data regarding radionuclide concentrations in groundwater over a period of 100,000 years, which are used as input to assessment calculations for a groundwater pathway. The DRINK model also provides input to human intrusion and gaseous assessment calculations through simulation of the solid radionuclide inventory. These calculations are being used to support the Drigg post closure safety case. The DRINK model considers the coupled interaction of the effects of fluid flow, microbiology, corrosion, chemical reaction, sorption and radioactive decay. It represents the first direct use of a mechanistic reaction-transport model in risk assessment calculations.

A model of intelligent building energy management for the indoor environment

People's interaction with the indoor environment plays a significant role in energy consumption in buildings. Mismatching and delaying occupants' feedback on the indoor environment to the building energy management system is the major barrier to the efficient energy management of buildings. There is an increasing trend towards the application of digital technology to support control systems in order to achieve energy efficiency in buildings. This article introduces a holistic, integrated, building energy management model called `smart sensor, optimum decision and intelligent control' (SMODIC). The model takes into account occupants' responses to the indoor environments in the control system. The model of optimal decision-making based on multiple criteria of indoor environments has been integrated into the whole system. The SMODIC model combines information technology and people centric concepts to achieve energy savings in buildings.

A generic model of Exergy Assessment of the Environmental Impact for the Building Lifecycle

A generic model of Exergy Assessment is proposed for the Environmental Impact of the Building Lifecycle, with a special focus on the natural environment. Three environmental impacts: energy consumption, resource consumption and pollutant discharge have been analyzed with reference to energy-embodied exergy, resource chemical exergy and abatement exergy, respectively. The generic model of Exergy Assessment of the Environmental Impact of the Building Lifecycle thus formulated contains two sub-models, one from the aspect of building energy utilization and the other from building materials use. Combined with theories by ecologists such as Odum, the paper evaluates a building's environmental sustainability through its exergy footprint and environmental impacts. A case study from Chongqing, China illustrates the application of this method. From the case study, it was found that energy consumption constitutes 70–80% of the total environmental impact during a 50-year building lifecycle, in which the operation phase accounts for 80% of the total environmental impact, the building material production phase 15% and 5% for the other phases.

Molecular dynamics simulations of proteins: can the explicit water model be varied?

In molecular mechanics simulations of biological systems, the solvation water is typically represented by a default water model which is an integral part of the force field. Indeed, protein nonbonding parameters are chosen in order to obtain a balance between water-water and protein-water interactions and hence a reliable description of protein solvation. However, less attention has been paid to the question of whether the water model provides a reliable description of the water properties under the chosen simulation conditions, for which more accurate water models often exist. Here we consider the case of the CHARMM protein force field, which was parametrized for use with a modified TIP3P model. Using quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical calculations, we investigate whether the CHARMM force field can be used with other water models: TIP4P and TIP5P. Solvation properties of N-methylacetamide (NMA), other small solute molecules, and a small protein are examined. The results indicate differences in binding energies and minimum energy geometries, especially for TIP5P, but the overall description of solvation is found to be similar for all models tested. The results provide an indication that molecular mechanics simulations with the CHARMM force field can be performed with water models other than TIP3P, thus enabling an improved description of the solvent water properties.

Realism and politics in alienated space: Trevor Griffiths's plays of the 1970s in the television studio

The television studio play is often perceived as a somewhat compromised, problematic mode in which spatial and technological constraints inhibit the signifying and aesthetic capacity of dramatic texts. Leah Panos examines the function of the studio in the 1970s television dramas of socialist playwright Trevor Griffiths, and argues that the established verbal and visual conventions of the studio play, in its confined and ‘alienated’ space, connect with and reinforce various aspects of Griffiths's particular approach and agenda. As well as suggesting ways in which the idealist, theoretical focus of the intellectual New Left is reflexively replicated within the studio, Panos explores how the ‘intimate’ visual language of the television studio allows Griffiths to create a ‘humanized’ Marxist discourse through which he examines dialectically his dramatic characters' experiences, ideas, morality, and political objectives. Leah Panos recently completed her doctoral thesis, ‘Dramatizing New Left Contradictions: Television Texts of Ken Loach, Jim Allen, and Trevor Griffiths’, at the University of Reading and is now a Postdoctoral Researcher on the AHRC funded project, ‘Spaces of Television: Production, Site and Style’, which runs from July 2010 to March 2014.