Ice-Bed Coupling Beneath and Beyond Ice Streams: Byrd Glacier, Antarctica

Ice sheet thickness is determined mainly by the strength of ice-bed coupling that controls holistic transitions from slow sheet flow to fast streamflow to buttressing shelf flow. Byrd Glacier has the largest ice drainage system in Antarctica and is the fastest ice stream entering Ross Ice Shelf. In 2004 two large subglacial lakes at the head of Byrd Glacier suddenly drained and increased the terminal ice velocity of Byrd Glacier from 820 m yr(-1) to 900 m yr(-1). This resulted in partial ice-bed recoupling above the lakes and partial decoupling along Byrd Glacier. An attempt to quantify this behavior is made using flowband and flowline models in which the controlling variable for ice height above the bed is the floating fraction phi of ice along the flowband and flowline. Changes in phi before and after drainage are obtained from available data, but more reliable data in the map plane are required before Byrd Glacier can be modeled adequately. A holistic sliding velocity is derived that depends on phi, with contributions from ice shearing over coupled beds and ice stretching over uncoupled beds, as is done in state-of-the-art sliding theories.

Predicting smoking cessation and its relapse in HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to assess whether prospective follow-up data within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study can be used to predict patients who stop smoking; or among smokers who stop, those who start smoking again. METHODS: We built prediction models first using clinical reasoning ('clinical models') and then by selecting from numerous candidate predictors using advanced statistical methods ('statistical models'). Our clinical models were based on literature that suggests that motivation drives smoking cessation, while dependence drives relapse in those attempting to stop. Our statistical models were based on automatic variable selection using additive logistic regression with component-wise gradient boosting. RESULTS: Of 4833 smokers, 26% stopped smoking, at least temporarily; because among those who stopped, 48% started smoking again. The predictive performance of our clinical and statistical models was modest. A basic clinical model for cessation, with patients classified into three motivational groups, was nearly as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the most important predictors (the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits, alcohol or drug dependence, psychiatric comorbidities, recent hospitalization and age). A basic clinical model for relapse, based on the maximum number of cigarettes per day prior to stopping, was not as discriminatory as a constrained statistical model with just the ratio of nonsmoking visits to total visits. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting smoking cessation and relapse is difficult, so that simple models are nearly as discriminatory as complex ones. Patients with a history of attempting to stop and those known to have stopped recently are the best candidates for an intervention.

An Early-Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events Based on Fusion of Adaptive Prediction Models

Introduction: Early warning of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events can improve the safety of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. The aim of this study is to design and evaluate a hypoglycemia / hyperglycemia early warning system (EWS) for T1DM patients under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy. Methods: The EWS is based on the combination of data-driven online adaptive prediction models and a warning algorithm. Three modeling approaches have been investigated: (i) autoregressive (ARX) models, (ii) auto-regressive with an output correction module (cARX) models, and (iii) recurrent neural network (RNN) models. The warning algorithm performs postprocessing of the models′ outputs and issues alerts if upcoming hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events are detected. Fusion of the cARX and RNN models, due to their complementary prediction performances, resulted in the hybrid autoregressive with an output correction module/recurrent neural network (cARN)-based EWS. Results: The EWS was evaluated on 23 T1DM patients under SAP therapy. The ARX-based system achieved hypoglycemic (hyperglycemic) event prediction with median values of accuracy of 100.0% (100.0%), detection time of 10.0 (8.0) min, and daily false alarms of 0.7 (0.5). The respective values for the cARX-based system were 100.0% (100.0%), 17.5 (14.8) min, and 1.5 (1.3) and, for the RNN-based system, were 100.0% (92.0%), 8.4 (7.0) min, and 0.1 (0.2). The hybrid cARN-based EWS presented outperforming results with 100.0% (100.0%) prediction accuracy, detection 16.7 (14.7) min in advance, and 0.8 (0.8) daily false alarms. Conclusion: Combined use of cARX and RNN models for the development of an EWS outperformed the single use of each model, achieving accurate and prompt event prediction with few false alarms, thus providing increased safety and comfort.

Cytochrome P450 Regulation by -Tocopherol in Pxr-Null and PXR-Humanized Mice

The pregnane X receptor (PXR) has been postulated to play a role in the metabolism of α-tocopherol owing to the up-regulation of hepatic cytochrome P450 (P450) 3A in human cell lines and murine models after α-tocopherol treatment. However, in vivo studies confirming the role of PXR in α-tocopherol metabolism in humans presents significant difficulties and has not been performed. PXR-humanized (hPXR), wild-type, and Pxr-null mouse models were used to determine whether α-tocopherol metabolism is influenced by species-specific differences in PXR function in vivo. No significant difference in the concentration of the major α-tocopherol metabolites was observed among the hPXR, wild-type, and Pxr-null mice through mass spectrometry-based metabolomics. Gene expression analysis revealed significantly increased expression of Cyp3a11 as well as several other P450s only in wild-type mice, suggesting species-specificity for α-tocopherol activation of PXR. Luciferase reporter assay confirmed activation of mouse PXR by α-tocopherol. Analysis of the Cyp2c family of genes revealed increased expression of Cyp2c29, Cyp2c37, and Cyp2c55 in wild-type, hPXR, and Pxr-null mice, which suggests PXR-independent induction of Cyp2c gene expression. This study revealed that α-tocopherol is a partial agonist of PXR and that PXR is necessary for Cyp3a induction by α-tocopherol. The implications of a novel role for α-tocopherol in Cyp2c gene regulation are also discussed.

The Good Society. A Comparative Study of Denmark and Switzerland

Denmark and Switzerland are small and successful countries with exceptionally content populations. However, they have very different political institutions and economic models. They have followed the general tendency in the West toward economic convergence, but both countries have managed to stay on top. They both have a strong liberal tradition, but otherwise their economic strategies are a welfare state model for Denmark and a safe haven model for Switzerland. The Danish welfare state is tax-based, while the expenditures for social welfare are insurance-based in Switzerland. The political institutions are a multiparty unicameral system in Denmark, and a permanent coalition system with many referenda and strong local government in Switzerland. Both approaches have managed to ensure smoothly working political power-sharing and economic systems that allocate resources in a fairly efficient way. To date, they have also managed to adapt the economies to changes in the external environment with a combination of stability and flexibility.

Geochemical variability in distal and proximal glass from the Youngest Toba Tuff eruption

The Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT, erupted ca. 74 ka ago) is a distinctive and widespread tephra marker across south and southeast Asia. The climatic, human and environmental consequences of the YTT eruption are widely debated. Although a considerable body of geochemical data is available for this unit, there has not been a systematic study of the variability of the ash geochemistry. Intrinsic (magmatic) and extrinsic (post-depositional) chemical variations bring fundamental information regarding the petrogenesis of the magma, the distribution of the tephra and the interaction between the ash and the receiving environment. Considering the importance of the geochemistry of the YTT for stratigraphic correlations and eruptive models, it is central to the YTT debate to quantify and interpret such variations. Here we collate all published geochemical data on the YTT glass, including analyses from 68 sites described in the literature and three new samples. Two principal sources of chemical variation are investigated: (i) compositional zonation of the magma reservoir, and (ii) post-depositional alteration. Post-depositional leaching is responsible for up to ca. 11% differences in Na2O/K2O and ca. 1% differences in SiO2/Al2O3 ratios in YTT glass from marine sites. Continental tephra are 2% higher in Na2O/K2O and 3% higher in SiO2/Al2O3 respect to the marine tephra. We interpret such post-depositional glass alteration as related to seawater induced alkali migration in marine environments, or to site-specific water pH. Crystal fractionation and consequential magmatic differentiation, which produced order-of-magnitude variations in trace element concentrations reported in the literature, also produced major element differences in the YTT glass. FeO/Al2O3 ratios vary by about 50 %, which is analytically significant. These variations represent magmatic fractionation involving Fe-bearing phases. We also compared major element concentrations in YTT and Oldest Toba Tuff (OTT) ash samples, to identify potential compositional differences that could constrain the stratigraphic identity of the Morgaon ash (Western India); no differences between the OTT and YTT samples were observed.

Investigation of young water inflow in karst aquifers using SF6–CFC–3H/He–85Kr–39Ar and stable isotope components

Karst aquifers are known for their wide distribution of water transfer velocities. From this observation, a multiple geochemical tracer approach seems to be particularly well suited to provide a significant assessment of groundwater flows, but the choice of adapted tracers is essential. In this study, several common tracers in karst aquifers such as physicochemical parameters, major ions, stable isotopes, and d13C to more specific tracers such as dating tracers – 14C, 3H, 3H–3He, CFC-12, SF6 and 85Kr, and 39Ar – were used, in a fractured karstic carbonated aquifer located in Burgundy (France). The information carried by each tracer and the best sampling strategy are compared on the basis of geochemical monitoring done during several recharge events and over longer time periods (months to years). This study’s results demonstrate that at the seasonal and recharge event time scale, the variability of concentrations is low for most tracers due to the broad spectrum of groundwater mixings. The tracers used traditionally for the study of karst aquifers, i.e., physicochemical parameters and major ions, efficiently describe hydrological processes such as the direct and differed recharge, but require being monitored at short time steps during recharge events to be maximized. From stable isotopes, tritium, and Cl� contents, the proportion of the fast direct recharge by the largest porosity was estimated using a binary mixing model. The use of tracers such as CFC-12, SF6, and 85Kr in karst aquifers provides additional information, notably an estimation of apparent age, but they require good preliminary knowledge of the karst system to interpret the results suitably. The CFC-12 and SF6 methods efficiently determine the apparent age of baseflow, but it is preferable to sample the groundwater during the recharge event. Furthermore, these methods are based on different assumptions such as regional enrichment in atmospheric SF6, excess air, and flow models among others. 85Kr and 39Ar concentrations can potentially provide a more direct estimation of groundwater residence time. Conversely, the 3H–3He method is inefficient in the karst aquifer for dating due to 3He degassing.

High prevalence but limited evidence in complementary and alternative medicine: guidelines for future research

The use of complementary and alternative Medicine (CAM) has increased over the past two decades in Europe. Nonetheless, research investigating the evidence to support its use remains limited. The CAMbrella project funded by the European Commission aimed to develop a strategic research agenda starting by systematically evaluating the state of CAM in the EU. CAMbrella involved 9 work packages covering issues such as the definition of CAM; its legal status, provision and use in the EU; and a synthesis of international research perspectives. Based on the work package reports, we developed a strategic and methodologically robust research roadmap based on expert workshops, a systematic Delphi-based process and a final consensus conference. The CAMbrella project suggests six core areas for research to examine the potential contribution of CAM to the health care challenges faced by the EU. These areas include evaluating the prevalence of CAM use in Europe; the EU cititzens’ needs and attitudes regarding CAM; the safety of CAM; the comparative effectiveness of CAM; the effects of meaning and context on CAM outcomes; and different models for integrating CAM into existing health care systems. CAM research should use methods generally accepted in the evaluation of health services, including comparative effectiveness studies and mixed-methods designs. A research strategy is urgently needed, ideally led by a European CAM coordinating research office dedicated to fostering systematic communication between EU governments, the public, charitable and industry funders, researchers and other stakeholders. A European Centre for CAM should also be established to monitor and further a coordinated research strategy with sufficient funds to commission and promote high quality, independent research focusing on the public’s health needs and pan-European collaboration. There is a disparity between highly prevalent use of CAM in Europe and solid knowledge about it. A strategic approach on CAM research should be established to investigate the identified gaps of knowledge and to address upcoming health care challenges.

Cyclooxygenase-2 and 5-lipoxygenase in dogs with chronic enteropathies.

BACKGROUND Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is a key enzyme in the synthesis of pro-inflammatory prostaglandins and 5-lipoxygenase (5-LO) is the major source of leukotrienes. Their role in IBD has been demonstrated in humans and animal models, but not in dogs with chronic enteropathies (CCE). HYPOTHESIS COX-2 and 5-LO are upregulated in dogs with CCE. ANIMALS Fifteen healthy control dogs (HCD), 10 dogs with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and 15 dogs with food-responsive diarrhea (FRD). METHODS Prospective study. mRNA expression of COX-2, 5-LO, IL-1b, IL-4, IL-6, TNF, IL-10 and TFG-β was evaluated by quantitative real-time RT-PCR in duodenal and colonic biopsies before and after treatment. RESULTS COX-2 expression in the colon was significantly higher in IBD and FRD before and after treatment (all P < .01). IL-1b was higher in FRD in the duodenum after treatment (P = .021). TGF-β expression was significantly higher in the duodenum of HCD compared to FRD/IBD before treatment (both P < .001) and IBD after treatment (P = .012). There were no significant differences among groups and within groups before and after treatment for IL-4, IL-6, TNF, and IL-10. There was a significant correlation between COX-2 and IL-1b in duodenum and colon before treatment in FRD and IBD, whereas 5-LO correlated better with IL-6 and TNF. IL-10 and TGF-β usually were correlated. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE COX-2 is upregulated in IBD and FRD, whereas IL-1b and TGF-β seem to be important pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, respectively. The use of dual COX/5-LO inhibitors could be an interesting alternative in the treatment of CCE.

Are We Sims? How Computer Simulations Represent and What this Means for the Simulation Argument

N. Bostrom’s simulation argument and two additional assumptions imply that we are likely to live in a computer simulation. The argument is based upon the following assumption about the workings of realistic brain simulations: The hardware of a computer on which a brain simulation is run bears a close analogy to the brain itself. To inquire whether this is so, I analyze how computer simulations trace processes in their targets. I describe simulations as fictional, mathematical, pictorial, and material models. Even though the computer hardware does provide a material model of the target, this does not suffice to underwrite the simulation argument because the ways in which parts of the computer hardware interact during simulations do not resemble the ways in which neurons interact in the brain. Further, there are computer simulations of all kinds of systems, and it would be unreasonable to infer that some computers display consciousness just because they simulate brains rather than, say, galaxies.

A complete-pelvis segmentation framework for image-free total hip arthroplasty (THA): methodology and clinical study

Background Complete-pelvis segmentation in antero-posterior pelvic radiographs is required to create a patient-specific three-dimensional pelvis model for surgical planning and postoperative assessment in image-free navigation of total hip arthroplasty. Methods A fast and robust framework for accurately segmenting the complete pelvis is presented, consisting of two consecutive modules. In the first module, a three-stage method was developed to delineate the left hemipelvis based on statistical appearance and shape models. To handle complex pelvic structures, anatomy-specific information processing techniques were employed. As the input to the second module, the delineated left hemi-pelvis was then reflected about an estimated symmetry line of the radiograph to initialize the right hemi-pelvis segmentation. The right hemi-pelvis was segmented by the same three-stage method, Results Two experiments conducted on respectively 143 and 40 AP radiographs demonstrated a mean segmentation accuracy of 1.61±0.68 mm. A clinical study to investigate the postoperative assessment of acetabular cup orientations based on the proposed framework revealed an average accuracy of 1.2°±0.9° and 1.6°±1.4° for anteversion and inclination, respectively. Delineation of each radiograph costs less than one minute. Conclusions Despite further validation needed, the preliminary results implied the underlying clinical applicability of the proposed framework for image-free THA.

Modeling the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosols during CalNex 2010

Four different literature parameterizations for the formation and evolution of urban secondary organic aerosol (SOA) frequently used in 3-D models are evaluated using a 0-D box model representing the Los Angeles metropolitan region during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 campaign. We constrain the model predictions with measurements from several platforms and compare predictions with particle- and gas-phase observations from the CalNex Pasadena ground site. That site provides a unique opportunity to study aerosol formation close to anthropogenic emission sources with limited recirculation. The model SOA that formed only from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA) is insufficient to explain the observed SOA concentrations, even when using SOA parameterizations with multi-generation oxidation that produce much higher yields than have been observed in chamber experiments, or when increasing yields to their upper limit estimates accounting for recently reported losses of vapors to chamber walls. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model (version 5.0.1) provides excellent predictions of secondary inorganic particle species but underestimates the observed SOA mass by a factor of 25 when an older VOC-only parameterization is used, which is consistent with many previous model–measurement comparisons for pre-2007 anthropogenic SOA modules in urban areas. Including SOA from primary semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs) following the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007), Grieshop et al. (2009), or Pye and Seinfeld (2010) improves model–measurement agreement for mass concentration. The results from the three parameterizations show large differences (e.g., a factor of 3 in SOA mass) and are not well constrained, underscoring the current uncertainties in this area. Our results strongly suggest that other precursors besides VOCs, such as P-S/IVOCs, are needed to explain the observed SOA concentrations in Pasadena. All the recent parameterizations overpredict urban SOA formation at long photochemical ages (3 days) compared to observations from multiple sites, which can lead to problems in regional and especially global modeling. However, reducing IVOC emissions by one-half in the model to better match recent IVOC measurements improves SOA predictions at these long photochemical ages. Among the explicitly modeled VOCs, the precursor compounds that contribute the greatest SOA mass are methylbenzenes. Measured polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (naphthalenes) contribute 0.7% of the modeled SOA mass. The amounts of SOA mass from diesel vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and cooking emissions are estimated to be 16–27, 35–61, and 19–35 %, respectively, depending on the parameterization used, which is consistent with the observed fossil fraction of urban SOA, 71(+-3) %. The relative contribution of each source is uncertain by almost a factor of 2 depending on the parameterization used. In-basin biogenic VOCs are predicted to contribute only a few percent to SOA. A regional SOA background of approximately 2.1 μgm-3 is also present due to the long-distance transport of highly aged OA, likely with a substantial contribution from regional biogenic SOA. The percentage of SOA from diesel vehicle emissions is the same, within the estimated uncertainty, as reported in previous work that analyzed the weekly cycles in OA concentrations (Bahreini et al., 2012; Hayes et al., 2013). However, the modeling work presented here suggests a strong anthropogenic source of modern carbon in SOA, due to cooking emissions, which was not accounted for in those previous studies and which is higher on weekends. Lastly, this work adapts a simple two-parameter model to predict SOA concentration and O/C from urban emissions. This model successfully predicts SOA concentration, and the optimal parameter combination is very similar to that found for Mexico City. This approach provides a computationally inexpensive method for predicting urban SOA in global and climate models. We estimate pollution SOA to account for 26 Tg yr-1 of SOA globally, or 17% of global SOA, one third of which is likely to be non-fossil.

Pasture degradation modifies the water and carbon cycles of the Tibetan highlands

The Tibetan Plateau has a significant role with regard to atmospheric circulation and the monsoon in particular. Changes between a closed plant cover and open bare soil are one of the striking effects of land use degradation observed with unsustainable range management or climate change, but experiments investigating changes of surface properties and processes together with atmospheric feedbacks are rare and have not been undertaken in the world's two largest alpine ecosystems, the alpine steppe and the Kobresia pygmaea pastures of the Tibetan Plateau. We connected measurements of micro-lysimeter, chamber, 13C labelling, and eddy covariance and combined the observations with land surface and atmospheric models, adapted to the highland conditions. This allowed us to analyse how three degradation stages affect the water and carbon cycle of pastures on the landscape scale within the core region of the Kobresia pygmaea ecosystem. The study revealed that increasing degradation of the Kobresia turf affects carbon allocation and strongly reduces the carbon uptake, compromising the function of Kobresia pastures as a carbon sink. Pasture degradation leads to a shift from transpiration to evaporation while a change in the sum of evapotranspiration over a longer period cannot be confirmed. The results show an earlier onset of convection and cloud generation, likely triggered by a shift in evapotranspiration timing when dominated by evaporation. Consequently, precipitation starts earlier and clouds decrease the incoming solar radiation. In summary, the changes in surface properties by pasture degradation found on the highland have a significant influence on larger scales.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Sensitivity and Fragmentation Calibration of the ROSINA Reflectron-type Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometer

The goal of this work was to increase the performance and to calibrate one of the ROSINA sensors, the Reflectron-type Time-Of-Flight mass spectrometer, currently flying aboard the ESA Rosetta spacecraft. Different optimization techniques were applied to both the lab and space models, and a static calibration was performed using different gas species expected to be detected in the vicinity of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The database thus created was successfully applied to space data, giving consistent results with the other ROSINA sensors.