Variability of marine climate on the North Icelandic Shelf in a 1357-year proxy archive based on growth increments in the bivalve Arctica islandica

A multicentennial and absolutely-dated shell-based chronology for the marine environment of the North Icelandic Shelf has been constructed using annual growth increments in the shell of the long-lived bivalve clam Arctica islandica. The region from which the shells were collected is close to the North Atlantic Polar Front and is highly sensitive to the varying influences of Atlantic and Arctic water masses. A strong common environmental signal is apparent in the increment widths, and although the correlations between the growth increment indices and regional sea surface temperatures are significant at the 95% confidence level, they are low (r ~ 0.2), indicating that a more complex combination of environmental forcings is driving growth. Remarkable longevities of individual animals are apparent in the increment-width series used in the chronology, with several animals having lifetimes in excess of 300 years and one, at 507 years, being the longest-lived non-colonial animal so far reported whose age at death can be accurately determined. The sample depth is at least three shells after AD 1175, and the time series has been extended back to AD 649 with a sample depth of one or two by the addition of two further series, thus providing a 1357-year archive of dated shell material. The statistical and spectral characteristics of the chronology are investigated by using two different methods of removing the age-related trend in shell growth. Comparison with other proxy archives from the same region reveals several similarities in variability on multidecadal timescales, particularly during the period surrounding the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

(Table 3) Interannual variability of total mass flux at the deep sediment trap site CBmeso between 1988 and 2006

This article will review major features of the 'giant' Cape Blanc filament off Mauritania with regard to the transport of chlorophyll and organic carbon from the shelf to the open ocean. Within the filament, chlorophyll is transported about 400 km offshore. Modelled particle distributions along a zonal transect at 21°N showed that particles with a sinking velocity of 5 m d**-1 are advected offshore by up to 600 km in subsurface particle clouds generally located between 400 m and 800 m water depth, forming an Intermediate Nepheloid Layer (INL). It corresponds to the depth of the oxygen minimum zone. Heavier particles with a sinking velocity of 30 m d**-1 are transported from the shelf within the Bottom Layer (BL) of more than 1000 m thickness, largely following the topography of the bottom slope. The particles advected within the BL contribute to the enhanced winter-spring mass fluxes collected at the open-ocean mesotrophic sediment trap site CB-13 (200 nm offshore), due to a long distance advection in deeper waters. The lateral contribution to the deep sediment trap in winter-spring is estimated to be 63% and 72% for organic carbon and total mass, respectively, whereas the lateral input for both components on an annual basis is estimated to be in the order of 15%. Biogenic opal increases almost fivefold from the upper to the lower mesotrophic CB-13 trap, also pointing to an additional source for biogenic silica from eutrophic coastal waters. Blooms obviously sink in smaller, probably mesoscale-sized patches with variable settling rates, depending on the type of aggregated particles and their ballast content. Generally, particle sinking rates are exceptionally high off NW Africa. Very high chlorophyll values and a large size of the Cape Blanc filament in 1998-1999 are also documented in enhanced total mass and organic carbon fluxes. An increasing trend in satellite chlorophyll concentrations and the size of the Cape Blanc filament between 1997 and 2008 as observed for other coastal upwelling areas is not documented.

Anatomy and variability of "Cuvierichelys parisiensis", a geoemydid turtle that crosses the Eocene-Oligocene boundary in Belgium

Abundant material of turtles from the early Oligocene site of Boutersem-TGV (Boutersem, Belgium), is presented here. No information on the turtles found there was so far available. All the turtle specimens presented here are attributable to a single freshwater taxon that is identified as a member of Geoemydidae, Cuvierichelys. It is the first representative of the ‘Palaeochelys s. l.–Mauremys’ group recognized in the Belgian Paleogene record. This material, which allows to know all the elements of both the carapace and the plastron of the taxon, cannot be attributed to the only species of the genus Cuvierichelys so far identified in the Oligocene, the Spanish form Cuvierichelys iberica. The taxon from Boutersem is recognized as Cuvierichelys parisiensis. Thus, both the paleobiogeographic and the biostratigraphic distributions of Cuvierichelys parisiensis are extended, its presence being confirmed for the first time outside the French Eocene record. The validity of some European forms is refuted, and several characters previously proposed as different between Cuvierichelys iberica and Cuvierichelys parisiensis are recognized as subjected to intraspecific variability.

On the Nature of Temporal Variability of the Gulf Stream Path from 75° to 55°W

The response of the Gulf Stream (GS) system to atmospheric forcing is generally linked either to the basin-scale winds on the subtropical gyre or to the buoyancy forcing from the Labrador Sea. This study presents a multiscale synergistic perspective to describe the low-frequency response of the GS system. The authors identify dominant temporal variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in known indices of the GS path, and in the observed GS latitudes along its path derived from sea surface height (SSH) contours over the period 1993-2013. The analysis suggests that the signature of interannual variability changes along the stream's path from 75 degrees to 55 degrees W. From its separation at Cape Hatteras to the west of 65 degrees W, the variability of the GS is mainly in the near-decadal (7-10 years) band, which is missing to the east of 60 degrees W, where a new interannual (4-5 years) band peaks. The latter peak (4-5 years) was missing to the west of 65 degrees W. The region between 65 degrees and 60 degrees W seems to be a transition region. A 2-3-yr secondary peak was pervasive in all time series, including that for the NAO. This multiscale response of the GS system is supported by results from a basin-scale North Atlantic model. The near-decadal response can be attributed to similar forcing periods in the NAO signal; however, the interannual variability of 4-5 years in the eastern segment of the GS path is as yet unexplained. More numerical and observational studies are warranted to understand such causality.

On the Nature of Temporal Variability of the Gulf Stream Path from 75° to 55°W

The response of the Gulf Stream (GS) system to atmospheric forcing is generally linked either to the basin-scale winds on the subtropical gyre or to the buoyancy forcing from the Labrador Sea. This study presents a multiscale synergistic perspective to describe the low-frequency response of the GS system. The authors identify dominant temporal variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in known indices of the GS path, and in the observed GS latitudes along its path derived from sea surface height (SSH) contours over the period 1993-2013. The analysis suggests that the signature of interannual variability changes along the stream's path from 75 degrees to 55 degrees W. From its separation at Cape Hatteras to the west of 65 degrees W, the variability of the GS is mainly in the near-decadal (7-10 years) band, which is missing to the east of 60 degrees W, where a new interannual (4-5 years) band peaks. The latter peak (4-5 years) was missing to the west of 65 degrees W. The region between 65 degrees and 60 degrees W seems to be a transition region. A 2-3-yr secondary peak was pervasive in all time series, including that for the NAO. This multiscale response of the GS system is supported by results from a basin-scale North Atlantic model. The near-decadal response can be attributed to similar forcing periods in the NAO signal; however, the interannual variability of 4-5 years in the eastern segment of the GS path is as yet unexplained. More numerical and observational studies are warranted to understand such causality.

Time series wind power forecasting based on variant Gaussian process and TLBO

Due to the variability and stochastic nature of wind power system, accurate wind power forecasting has an important role in developing reliable and economic power system operation and control strategies. As wind variability is stochastic, Gaussian Process regression has recently been introduced to capture the randomness of wind energy. However, the disadvantages of Gaussian Process regression include its computation complexity and incapability to adapt to time varying time-series systems. A variant Gaussian Process for time series forecasting is introduced in this study to address these issues. This new method is shown to be capable of reducing computational complexity and increasing prediction accuracy. It is further proved that the forecasting result converges as the number of available data approaches innite. Further, a teaching learning based optimization (TLBO) method is used to train the model and to accelerate
the learning rate. The proposed modelling and optimization method is applied to forecast both the wind power generation of Ireland and that from a single wind farm to show the eectiveness of the proposed method.

Interannual and (multi-)decadal variability in the sedimentary BIT index of Lake Challa, East Africa, over the past 2200 years: assessment of the precipitation proxy

The branched vs. isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index is based on the relative abundance of branched tetraether lipids (brGDGTs) and the isoprenoidal GDGT crenarchaeol. In Lake Challa sediments the BIT index has been applied as a proxy for local monsoon precipitation on the assumption that the primary source of brGDGTs is soil washed in from the lake's catchment. Since then, microbial production within the water column has been identified as the primary source of brGDGTs in Lake Challa sediments, meaning that either an alternative mechanism links BIT index variation with rainfall or that the proxy's application must be reconsidered. We investigated GDGT concentrations and BIT index variation in Lake Challa sediments at a decadal resolution over the past 2200 years, in combination with GDGT time-series data from 45 monthly sediment-trap samples and a chronosequence of profundal surface sediments.

Our 2200-year geochemical record reveals high-frequency variability in GDGT concentrations, and therefore in the BIT index, superimposed on distinct lower-frequency fluctuations at multi-decadal to century timescales. These changes in BIT index are correlated with changes in the concentration of crenarchaeol but not with those of the brGDGTs. A clue for understanding the indirect link between rainfall and crenarchaeol concentration (and thus thaumarchaeotal abundance) was provided by the observation that surface sediments collected in January 2010 show a distinct shift in GDGT composition relative to sediments collected in August 2007. This shift is associated with increased bulk flux of settling mineral particles with high Ti / Al ratios during March–April 2008, reflecting an event of unusually high detrital input to Lake Challa concurrent with intense precipitation at the onset of the principal rain season that year. Although brGDGT distributions in the settling material are initially unaffected, this soil-erosion event is succeeded by a massive dry-season diatom bloom in July–September 2008 and a concurrent increase in the flux of GDGT-0. Complete absence of crenarchaeol in settling particles during the austral summer following this bloom indicates that no Thaumarchaeota bloom developed at that time. We suggest that increased nutrient availability, derived from the eroded soil washed into the lake, caused the massive bloom of diatoms and that the higher concentrations of ammonium (formed from breakdown of this algal matter) resulted in a replacement of nitrifying Thaumarchaeota, which in typical years prosper during the austral summer, by nitrifying bacteria. The decomposing dead diatoms passing through the suboxic zone of the water column probably also formed a substrate for GDGT-0-producing archaea. Hence, through a cascade of events, intensive rainfall affects thaumarchaeotal abundance, resulting in high BIT index values.

Decade-scale BIT index fluctuations in Lake Challa sediments exactly match the timing of three known episodes of prolonged regional drought within the past 250 years. Additionally, the principal trends of inferred rainfall variability over the past two millennia are consistent with the hydroclimatic history of equatorial East Africa, as has been documented from other (but less well dated) regional lake records. We therefore propose that variation in GDGT production originating from the episodic recurrence of strong soil-erosion events, when integrated over (multi-)decadal and longer timescales, generates a stable positive relationship between the sedimentary BIT index and monsoon rainfall at Lake Challa. Application of this paleoprecipitation proxy at other sites requires ascertaining the local processes which affect the productivity of crenarchaeol by Thaumarchaeota and brGDGTs.

Combinations of ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutational status as predictors of time to first treatment in CLL.

ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutations have all been reported to have prognostic impact in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), both individually and in paired combinations. We aimed to determine whether the combination of all three factors provided more refined prognostic information concerning the treatment-free interval (TFI) from diagnosis. ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutations were evaluated in 142 patients. Combining all three factors, the ZAP-70-/CD38-/Mutated group showed the longest median TFI (62 months, n = 37), ZAP-70+/CD38+/Unmutated cases the shortest (11 months, n = 37) and cases discordant for > or = 1 factor, an intermediate TFI (27 months, n = 68) (p = 0.006). Analysis of discordant cases revealed values that were otherwise masked when measuring single prognostic factors. The presence or absence of cytogenetic abnormalities did not explain the variability among discordant cases. Simultaneous analysis of ZAP-70, CD38 and IGHV mutations in CLL provides more discriminatory prediction of TFI than any factor alone.

Identifying the Impact of Incomplete Datasets on Process Cycle Time Prediction in an Aerospace Assembly Line

Supply Chain Simulation (SCS) is applied to acquire information to support outsourcing decisions but obtaining enough detail in key parameters can often be a barrier to making well informed decisions.
One aspect of SCS that has been relatively unexplored is the impact of inaccurate data around delays within the SC. The impact of the magnitude and variability of process cycle time on typical performance indicators in a SC context is studied.
System cycle time, WIP levels and throughput are more sensitive to the magnitude of deterministic deviations in process cycle time than variable deviations. Manufacturing costs are not very sensitive to these deviations.
Future opportunities include investigating the impact of process failure or product defects, including logistics and transportation between SC members and using alternative costing methodologies.

Stone temperature and moisture variability under temperate environmental conditions: implications for sandstone weathering

Temperature and moisture conditions are key drivers of stone weathering processes in both natural and built environments. Given their importance in the breakdown of stone, a detailed understanding of their temporal and spatial variability is central to understanding present-day weathering behaviour and for predicting how climate change may influence the nature and rates of future stone decay.
Subsurface temperature and moisture data are reported from quarry fresh Peakmoor Sandstone samples exposed during summer (June–July) and late autumn / early winter (October–December) in a mid-latitude, temperate maritime environment. These data demonstrate that the subsurface thermal response of sandstone comprises numerous short-term (minutes), low magnitude fluctuations superimposed upon larger-scale diurnal heating and cooling cycles with distinct aspect-related differences. The short-term fluctuations create conditions in the outer 5–10 mm of stone that are much more ‘energetic’ in comparison to the more subdued thermal cycling that occurs deeper within the sandstone samples.
Data show that moisture dynamics are equally complex with a near-surface region (5–10 mm) in which frequent moisture cycling takes place and this, combined with the thermal dynamism exhibited by the same region may have significant implications for the nature and rate of weathering activity. Data indicate that moisture input from rainfall, particularly when it is wind-driven, can travel deep into the stone where it can prolong the time of wetness. This most often occurs during wetter winter months when moisture input is high and evaporative loss is low but can happen at any time during the year when the hydraulic connection between near-surface and deeper regions of the stone is disrupted with subsequent loss of moisture from depth slowing as it becomes reliant on vapour diffusion alone.
These data illustrate the complexity of temperature and moisture conditions in sandstone exposed to the ‘moderate’ conditions of a temperate maritime environment. They highlight differences in thermal and moisture cycling between near-surface (5–10 mm) and deeper regions within the stone and contribute towards a better understanding of the development of structural and mineralogical heterogeneity between the stone surface and substrate.

Influence of environmental variability and age on the body condition of small pelagic fish in the Gulf of Lions

Endogenous and environmental variables are fundamental in explaining variations in fish condition. Based on more than 20 yr of fish weight and length data, relative condition indices were computed for anchovy and sardine caught in the Gulf of Lions. Classification and regression trees (CART) were used to identify endogenous factors affecting fish condition, and to group years of similar condition. Both species showed a similar annual cycle with condition being minimal in February and maximal in July. CART identified 3 groups of years where the fish populations generally showed poor, average and good condition and within which condition differed between age classes but not according to sex. In particular, during the period of poor condition (mostly recent years), sardines older than 1 yr appeared to be more strongly affected than younger individuals. Time-series were analyzed using generalized linear models (GLMs) to examine the effects of oceanographic abiotic (temperature, Western Mediterranean Oscillation [WeMO] and Rhone outflow) and biotic (chlorophyll a and 6 plankton classes) factors on fish condition. The selected models explained 48 and 35% of the variance of anchovy and sardine condition, respectively. Sardine condition was negatively related to temperature but positively related to the WeMO and mesozooplankton and diatom concentrations. A positive effect of mesozooplankton and Rhone runoff on anchovy condition was detected. The importance of increasing temperatures and reduced water mixing in the NW Mediterranean Sea, affecting planktonic productivity and thus fish condition by bottom-up control processes, was highlighted by these results. Changes in plankton quality, quantity and phenology could lead to insufficient or inadequate food supply for both species.

Quantifying nitrous oxide emissions from sugarcane cropping systems : Optimum sampling time and frequency

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soil are often measured using the manual static chamber method. Manual gas sampling is labour intensive, so a minimal sampling frequency that maintains the accuracy of measurements would be desirable. However, the high temporal (diurnal, daily and seasonal) variabilities of N2O emissions can compromise the accuracy of measurements if not addressed adequately when formulating a sampling schedule. Assessments of sampling strategies to date have focussed on relatively low emission systems with high episodicity, where a small number of the highest emission peaks can be critically important in the measurement of whole season cumulative emissions. Using year-long, automated sub-daily N2O measurements from three fertilised sugarcane fields, we undertook an evaluation of the optimum gas sampling strategies in high emission systems with relatively long emission episodes. The results indicated that sampling in the morning between 09:00–12:00, when soil temperature was generally close to the daily average, best approximated the daily mean N2O emission within 4–7% of the ‘actual’ daily emissions measured by automated sampling. Weekly sampling with biweekly sampling for one week after >20 mm of rainfall was the recommended sampling regime. It resulted in no extreme (>20%) deviations from the ‘actuals’, had a high probability of estimating the annual cumulative emissions within 10% precision, with practicable sampling numbers in comparison to other sampling regimes. This provides robust and useful guidance for manual gas sampling in sugarcane cropping systems, although further adjustments by the operators in terms of expected measurement accuracy and resource availability are encouraged. By implementing these sampling strategies together, labour inputs and errors in measured cumulative N2O emissions can be minimised. Further research is needed to quantify the spatial variability of N2O emissions within sugarcane cropping and to develop techniques for effectively addressing both spatial and temporal variabilities simultaneously.

Bananas adrift in time – a case study in the Solomons

Diseases, pests and environmental constraints pose a major threat to the sustainability of banana production globally. To address these challenges, the discovery and study of new sources of genetic resistance and adaptability are required, along with the general conservation of diversity. The Solomon Islands, located in the south-western Pacific region near Papua New Guinea, are a major center of banana diversity. Some collections had been made by nationals of some of the diversity present but little was known internationally of the rich genetic resource present. Two separate visits to the Solomon Islands characterized banana collections, documented and collected germplasm, recommended conservation strategies and provided training in cultivar characterization. A remarkable range of genetic diversity was found, including: many AA and AAA cooking types somewhat like those present in Papua New Guinea; nine Fei cultivars in relatively common usage, and two undescribed wild species as well as five AAB Pacific Plantains and four ABB cooking bananas belonging to the Kalapua subgroup. About six of the unique cultivars were successfully collected and established in the regional in vitro germplasm collection of SPC in Suva, Fiji. Nine Solomon Islanders were trained in the finer points of characterizing banana cultivars. Further collecting and study/evaluation of this rich diversity will promote its appreciation and potential utilization for meeting the challenges and opportunities ahead. Future studies could also determine the spread of the Awawe species and variability of morphological traits in the population. Community-based conservation could promote awareness of dietary diversity for better nutrition, via using the Fei bananas described in this paper. Establishing a virus-free regional field collection could help in comprehensively characterizing and evaluating regional Musa genetic resources. Existing sites could embrace the broader unique diversity of the Solomon Islands, and facilitate sharing this diversity in conjunction with a regional virus-tested in vitro collection.

Comparing fixed and flexible stocking as adaptations to inter-annual rainfall variability in the extensive beef industry of northern Australia

Many beef producers within the extensive cattle industry of northern Australia attempt to maintain a constant herd size from year-to-year (fixed stocking), whereas others adjust stock numbers to varying degrees annually in response to changes in forage supply. The effects of these strategies on pasture condition and cattle productivity cannot easily be assessed by grazing trials. Simulation studies, which include feedbacks of changes to pasture condition on cattle liveweight gain, can extend the results of grazing trials both spatially and temporally. They can compare a large number of strategies, over long periods of time, for a range of climate periods, at locations which differ markedly in climate. This simulation study compared the pasture condition and cattle productivity achieved by fixed stocking at the long-term carrying capacity with that of 55 flexible stocking strategies at 28 locations across Queensland and the Northern Territory. Flexible stocking strategies differed markedly in the degree they increased or decreased cattle stocking rates after good and poor pasture growing seasons, respectively. The 28 locations covered the full range in average annual rainfall and inter-annual rainfall variability experienced across northern Australia. Constrained flexibility, which limited increases in stocking rates after good growing seasons to 10% but decreased them by up to 20% after poor growing seasons, provides sustainable productivity gains for cattle producers in northern Australia. This strategy can improve pasture condition and increase cattle productivity relative to fixed stocking at the long-term carrying capacity, and its capacity to do this was greatest in the semiarid rangeland regions that contain the majority of beef cattle in northern Australia. More flexible stocking strategies, which also increased stocking rates after good growing seasons by only half as much as they decreased them after poor growing seasons, were equally sustainable and more productive than constrained flexibility, but are often impractical at property and industry scales. Strategies with the highest limits (e.g. 70%) for both annual increases and decreases in stocking rates could achieve higher cattle productivity, but this was at the expense of pasture condition and was not sustainable. Constrained flexible stocking, with a 10% limit for increases and a 20% limit for decreases in stocking rates annually, is a risk-averse adaptation to high and unpredictable rainfall variability for the extensive beef industry of northern Australia. © Australian Rangeland Society 2016.