Remaining useful life prediction using elliptical basis function network and Markov Chain

This paper presents a novel method for remaining useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF) network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance decision and resource planning.

Dynamics of pattern writing and erasure in photorefractive lithium niobate for data storage applications

The present rate of technological advance continues to place significant demands on data storage devices. The sheer amount of digital data being generated each year along with consumer expectations, fuels these demands. At present, most digital data is stored magnetically, in the form of hard disk drives or on magnetic tape. The increase in areal density (AD) of magnetic hard disk drives over the past 50 years has been of the order of 100 million times, and current devices are storing data at ADs of the order of hundreds of gigabits per square inch. However, it has been known for some time that the progress in this form of data storage is approaching fundamental limits. The main limitation relates to the lower size limit that an individual bit can have for stable storage. Various techniques for overcoming these fundamental limits are currently the focus of considerable research effort. Most attempt to improve current data storage methods, or modify these slightly for higher density storage. Alternatively, three dimensional optical data storage is a promising field for the information storage needs of the future, offering very high density, high speed memory. There are two ways in which data may be recorded in a three dimensional optical medium; either bit-by-bit (similar in principle to an optical disc medium such as CD or DVD) or by using pages of bit data. Bit-by-bit techniques for three dimensional storage offer high density but are inherently slow due to the serial nature of data access. Page-based techniques, where a two-dimensional page of data bits is written in one write operation, can offer significantly higher data rates, due to their parallel nature. Holographic Data Storage (HDS) is one such page-oriented optical memory technique. This field of research has been active for several decades, but with few commercial products presently available. Another page-oriented optical memory technique involves recording pages of data as phase masks in a photorefractive medium. A photorefractive material is one by which the refractive index can be modified by light of the appropriate wavelength and intensity, and this property can be used to store information in these materials. In phase mask storage, two dimensional pages of data are recorded into a photorefractive crystal, as refractive index changes in the medium. A low-intensity readout beam propagating through the medium will have its intensity profile modified by these refractive index changes and a CCD camera can be used to monitor the readout beam, and thus read the stored data. The main aim of this research was to investigate data storage using phase masks in the photorefractive crystal, lithium niobate (LiNbO3). Firstly the experimental methods for storing the two dimensional pages of data (a set of vertical stripes of varying lengths) in the medium are presented. The laser beam used for writing, whose intensity profile is modified by an amplitudemask which contains a pattern of the information to be stored, illuminates the lithium niobate crystal and the photorefractive effect causes the patterns to be stored as refractive index changes in the medium. These patterns are read out non-destructively using a low intensity probe beam and a CCD camera. A common complication of information storage in photorefractive crystals is the issue of destructive readout. This is a problem particularly for holographic data storage, where the readout beam should be at the same wavelength as the beam used for writing. Since the charge carriers in the medium are still sensitive to the read light field, the readout beam erases the stored information. A method to avoid this is by using thermal fixing. Here the photorefractive medium is heated to temperatures above 150�C; this process forms an ionic grating in the medium. This ionic grating is insensitive to the readout beam and therefore the information is not erased during readout. A non-contact method for determining temperature change in a lithium niobate crystal is presented in this thesis. The temperature-dependent birefringent properties of the medium cause intensity oscillations to be observed for a beam propagating through the medium during a change in temperature. It is shown that each oscillation corresponds to a particular temperature change, and by counting the number of oscillations observed, the temperature change of the medium can be deduced. The presented technique for measuring temperature change could easily be applied to a situation where thermal fixing of data in a photorefractive medium is required. Furthermore, by using an expanded beam and monitoring the intensity oscillations over a wide region, it is shown that the temperature in various locations of the crystal can be monitored simultaneously. This technique could be used to deduce temperature gradients in the medium. It is shown that the three dimensional nature of the recording medium causes interesting degradation effects to occur when the patterns are written for a longer-than-optimal time. This degradation results in the splitting of the vertical stripes in the data pattern, and for long writing exposure times this process can result in the complete deterioration of the information in the medium. It is shown in that simply by using incoherent illumination, the original pattern can be recovered from the degraded state. The reason for the recovery is that the refractive index changes causing the degradation are of a smaller magnitude since they are induced by the write field components scattered from the written structures. During incoherent erasure, the lower magnitude refractive index changes are neutralised first, allowing the original pattern to be recovered. The degradation process is shown to be reversed during the recovery process, and a simple relationship is found relating the time at which particular features appear during degradation and recovery. A further outcome of this work is that the minimum stripe width of 30 ìm is required for accurate storage and recovery of the information in the medium, any size smaller than this results in incomplete recovery. The degradation and recovery process could be applied to an application in image scrambling or cryptography for optical information storage. A two dimensional numerical model based on the finite-difference beam propagation method (FD-BPM) is presented and used to gain insight into the pattern storage process. The model shows that the degradation of the patterns is due to the complicated path taken by the write beam as it propagates through the crystal, and in particular the scattering of this beam from the induced refractive index structures in the medium. The model indicates that the highest quality pattern storage would be achieved with a thin 0.5 mm medium; however this type of medium would also remove the degradation property of the patterns and the subsequent recovery process. To overcome the simplistic treatment of the refractive index change in the FD-BPM model, a fully three dimensional photorefractive model developed by Devaux is presented. This model shows significant insight into the pattern storage, particularly for the degradation and recovery process, and confirms the theory that the recovery of the degraded patterns is possible since the refractive index changes responsible for the degradation are of a smaller magnitude. Finally, detailed analysis of the pattern formation and degradation dynamics for periodic patterns of various periodicities is presented. It is shown that stripe widths in the write beam of greater than 150 ìm result in the formation of different types of refractive index changes, compared with the stripes of smaller widths. As a result, it is shown that the pattern storage method discussed in this thesis has an upper feature size limit of 150 ìm, for accurate and reliable pattern storage.

Effect of simulated visual impairment on nighttime driving performance

PURPOSE: This study investigated the effects of simulated visual impairment on nighttime driving performance and pedestrian recognition under real-road conditions. METHODS: Closed road nighttime driving performance was measured for 20 young visually normal participants (M = 27.5 +/- 6.1 years) under three visual conditions: normal vision, simulated cataracts, and refractive blur that were incorporated in modified goggles. The visual acuity levels for the cataract and blur conditions were matched for each participant. Driving measures included sign recognition, avoidance of low contrast road hazards, time to complete the course, and lane keeping. Pedestrian recognition was measured for pedestrians wearing either black clothing or black clothing with retroreflective markings on the moveable joints to create the perception of biological motion ("biomotion"). RESULTS: Simulated visual impairment significantly reduced participants' ability to recognize road signs, avoid road hazards, and increased the time taken to complete the driving course (p < 0.05); the effect was greatest for the cataract condition, even though the cataract and blur conditions were matched for visual acuity. Although visual impairment also significantly reduced the ability to recognize the pedestrian wearing black clothing, the pedestrian wearing "biomotion" was seen 80% of the time. CONCLUSIONS: Driving performance under nighttime conditions was significantly degraded by modest visual impairment; these effects were greatest for the cataract condition. Pedestrian recognition was greatly enhanced by marking limb joints in the pattern of "biomotion," which was relatively robust to the effects of visual impairment.

The association between MC1R genotype and BRAF mutation status in cutaneous melanoma : findings from an Australian population

There is increasing epidemiological and molecular evidence that cutaneous melanomas arise through multiple causal pathways. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between germline and somatic mutations in a population-based series of melanoma patients to reshape and refine the divergent pathway model for melanoma. Melanomas collected from 123 Australian patients were analyzed for melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) variants and mutations in the BRAF and NRAS genes. Detailed phenotypic and sun exposure data were systematically collected from all patients. We found that BRAF-mutant melanomas were significantly more likely from younger patients and those with high nevus counts, and were more likely in melanomas with adjacent neval remnants. Conversely, BRAF-mutant melanomas were significantly less likely in people with high levels of lifetime sun exposure. We observed no association between germline MC1R status and somatic BRAF mutations in melanomas from this population. BRAF-mutant melanomas have different origins from other cutaneous melanomas. These data support the divergent pathways hypothesis for melanoma, which may require a reappraisal of targeted cancer prevention activities.

Modest visual impairments and headlamp glare reduce pedestrian visability at night

Background: This study investigated the effects of experimentally induced visual impairment, headlamp glare and clothing on pedestrian visibility. Methods: 28 young adults (M=27.6±4.7 yrs) drove around a closed road circuit at night while pedestrians walked in place at the roadside. Pedestrians wore either black clothing, black clothing with a rectangular vest consisting of 1325 cm2 of retroreflective tape, or the same amount of tape positioned on the extremities in a configuration that conveyed biological motion (“biomotion”). Visual impairment was induced by goggles containing either blurring lenses, simulated cataracts, or clear lenses; visual acuity for the cataract and blurred lens conditions was matched. Drivers pressed a response pad when they first recognized that a pedestrian was present. Sixteen participants drove around the circuit in the presence of headlamp glare while twelve drove without glare. Results: Visual impairment, headlamp glare and pedestrian clothing all significantly affected drivers’ ability to recognize pedestrians (p<0.05). The simulated cataracts were more disruptive than blur, even though acuity was matched across the two manipulations. Pedestrians were recognized more often and at longer distances when they wore “biomotion” clothing than either the vest or black clothing, even in the presence of visual impairment and glare. Conclusions: Drivers’ ability to see and respond to pedestrians at night is degraded by modest visual impairments even when vision meets driver licensing requirements; glare further exacerbates these effects. Clothing that includes retroreflective tape in a biological motion configuration is relatively robust to visual impairment and glare.

Climate variability and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in northeastern China

Background: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission. ---------- Objective: We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China. ---------- Methods: We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission. ----------- Results: Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS. ---------- Conclusions: Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

Asset health prediction using condition indicators and operating environment indicators : a case study

Prognostics and asset life prediction is one of research potentials in engineering asset health management. We previously developed the Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) to effectively and explicitly predict asset life using three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators. We have formerly studied the application of both the semi-parametric EHM and non-parametric EHM to the survival probability estimation in the reliability field. The survival time in these models is dependent not only upon the age of the asset monitored, but also upon the condition and operating environment information obtained. This paper is a further study of the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs to the hazard and residual life prediction of a set of resistance elements. The resistance elements were used as corrosion sensors for measuring the atmospheric corrosion rate in a laboratory experiment. In this paper, the estimated hazard of the resistance element using the semi-parametric EHM and the non-parametric EHM is compared to the traditional Weibull model and the Aalen Linear Regression Model (ALRM), respectively. Due to assuming a Weibull distribution in the baseline hazard of the semi-parametric EHM, the estimated hazard using this model is compared to the traditional Weibull model. The estimated hazard using the non-parametric EHM is compared to ALRM which is a well-known non-parametric covariate-based hazard model. At last, the predicted residual life of the resistance element using both EHMs is compared to the actual life data.

Theoretical comparison of innovative window daylighting devices for a sub-tropical climate using radiance

Daylighting in tropical and sub-tropical climates presents a unique challenge that is generally not well understood by designers. In a sub-tropical region such as Brisbane, Australia the majority of the year comprises of sunny clear skies with few overcast days and as a consequence windows can easily become sources of overheating and glare. The main strategy in dealing with this issue is extensive shading on windows. However, this in turn prevents daylight penetration into buildings often causing an interior to appear gloomy and dark even though there is more than sufficient daylight available. As a result electric lighting is the main source of light, even during the day. Innovative daylight devices which redirect light from windows offer a potential solution to this issue. These devices can potentially improve daylighting in buildings by increasing the illumination within the environment decreasing the high contrast between the window and work regions and deflecting potentially glare causing sunlight away from the observer. However, the performance of such innovative daylighting devices are generally quantified under overcast skies (i.e. daylight factors) or skies without sun, which are typical of European climates and are misleading when considering these devices for tropical or sub-tropical climates. This study sought to compare four innovative window daylighting devices in RADIANCE; light shelves, laser cut panels, micro-light guides and light redirecting blinds. These devices were simulated in RADIANCE under sub-tropical skies (for Brisbane) within the test case of a typical CBD office space. For each device the quantity of light redirected and its distribution within the space was used as the basis for comparison. In addition, glare analysis on each device was conducted using Weinold and Christoffersons evalglare. The analysis was conducted for selected hours for a day in each season. The majority of buildings that humans will occupy in their lifetime are already constructed, and extensive remodelling of most of these buildings is unlikely. Therefore the most effective way to improve daylighting in the near future will be through the alteration existing window spaces. Thus it will be important to understand the performance of daylighting systems with respect to the climate it is to be used in. This type of analysis is important to determine the applicability of a daylighting strategy so that designers can achieve energy efficiency as well the health benefits of natural daylight.

Solar energy : utilization in building operations

In the face of increasing concern over global warming and climate change, interest in the utilizzation of solar energy for building operations is rapidly growing. In this entry, the importance of using renewable energy in building operations is first introduced. This is followed by a general overview on the energy from the sun and the methods to utilize solar energy. Possible applications of solar energy in building operations are then discussed, which include the use of solar energy in the forms of daylighting, hot water heating, space heating and cooling, and building-integrated photovoltaics.

Interpreting regional frequencies from synchronized phasor measurement in multi-area power systems

In this paper a new approach is proposed for interpreting of regional frequencies in multi machine power systems. The method uses generator aggregation and system reduction based on coherent generators in each area. The reduced system structure is able to be identified and a kalman estimator is designed for the reduced system to estimate the inter-area modes using the synchronized phasor measurement data. The proposed method is tested on a six machine, three area test system and the obtained results show the estimation of inter-area oscillations in the system with a high accuracy.

Variable structure control for power systems stabilization

The application of variable structure control (VSC) for power systems stabilization is studied in this paper. It is the application, aspects and constraints of VSC which are of particular interest. A variable structure control methodology has been proposed for power systems stabilization. The method is implemented using thyristor controlled series compensators. A three machine power system is stabilized using a switching line control for large disturbances which becomes a sliding control as the disturbance becomes smaller. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology proposed as an useful tool to suppress the oscillations in power systems.

A grouping model for distributed pipeline assets maintenance decision

Distributed pipeline assets systems are crucial to society. The deterioration of these assets and the optimal allocation of limited budget for their maintenance correspond to crucial challenges for water utility managers. Decision makers should be assisted with optimal solutions to select the best maintenance plan concerning available resources and management strategies. Much research effort has been dedicated to the development of optimal strategies for maintenance of water pipes. Most of the maintenance strategies are intended for scheduling individual water pipe. Consideration of optimal group scheduling replacement jobs for groups of pipes or other linear assets has so far not received much attention in literature. It is a common practice that replacement planners select two or three pipes manually with ambiguous criteria to group into one replacement job. This is obviously not the best solution for job grouping and may not be cost effective, especially when total cost can be up to multiple million dollars. In this paper, an optimal group scheduling scheme with three decision criteria for distributed pipeline assets maintenance decision is proposed. A Maintenance Grouping Optimization (MGO) model with multiple criteria is developed. An immediate challenge of such modeling is to deal with scalability of vast combinatorial solution space. To address this issue, a modified genetic algorithm is developed together with a Judgment Matrix. This Judgment Matrix is corresponding to various combinations of pipe replacement schedules. An industrial case study based on a section of a real water distribution network was conducted to test the new model. The results of the case study show that new schedule generated a significant cost reduction compared with the schedule without grouping pipes.

Empirical analysis of freeway traffic oscillation : its safety impact and evolution

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations. However, people have limited knowledge on this complex topic. In this research, 1) the impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences has been measured using the matched case-control design. The results consistently reveal that oscillations have a more significant impact on freeway safety than the average traffic states. 2) Wavelet Transform has been adopted to locate oscillations' origins and measure their characteristics along their propagation paths using vehicle trajectory data. 3) Lane changing maneuver's impact on the immediate follower is measured and modeled. The knowledge and the new models generated from this study could provide better understanding on fundamentals of congested traffic; enable improvements to existing traffic control strategies and freeway crash countermeasures; and instigate people to develop new operational strategies with the objective of reducing the negative effects of oscillatory driving.

Does sea-level rise have an impact on saltwater intrusion?

Climate change effects are expected to substantially raise the average sea level. It is widely assumed that this raise will have a severe adverse impact on saltwater intrusion processes in coastal aquifers. In this study we hypothesize that a natural mechanism, identified as the “lifting process” has the potential to mitigate or in some cases completely reverse the adverse intrusion effects induced by sea-level rise. A detailed numerical study using the MODFLOW-family computer code SEAWAT, was completed to test this hypothesis and to understand the effects of this lifting process in both confined and unconfined systems. Our conceptual simulation results show that if the ambient recharge remains constant, the sea-level rise will have no long-term impact (i.e., it will not affect the steady-state salt wedge) on confined aquifers. Our transient confined flow simulations show a self-reversal mechanism where the wedge which will initially intrude into the formation due to the sea-level rise would be naturally driven back to the original position. In unconfined systems, the lifting process would have a lesser influence due to changes in the value of effective transmissivity. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also completed to understand the sensitivity of this self-reversal effect to various aquifer parameters.

Body-site distribution of skin cancer, pre-malignant and common benign pigmented lesions excised in general practice

Background Concern about skin cancer is a common reason for people from predominantly fair-skinned populations to present to primary care doctors. Objectives To examine the frequency and body-site distribution of malignant, pre-malignant and benign pigmented skin lesions excised in primary care. Methods This prospective study conducted in Queensland, Australia, included 154 primary care doctors. For all excised or biopsied lesions, doctors recorded the patient's age and sex, body site, level of patient pressure to excise, and the clinical diagnosis. Histological confirmation was obtained through pathology laboratories. Results Of 9650 skin lesions, 57·7% were excised in males and 75·0% excised in patients ≥50years. The most common diagnoses were basal cell carcinoma (BCC) (35·1%) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (19·7%). Compared with the whole body, the highest densities for SCC, BCC and actinic keratoses were observed on chronically sun-exposed areas of the body including the face in males and females, the scalp and ears in males, and the hands in females. The density of BCC was also high on intermittently or rarely exposed body sites. Females, younger patients and patients with melanocytic naevi were significantly more likely to exert moderate/high levels of pressure on the doctor to excise. Conclusions More than half the excised lesions were skin cancer, which mostly occurred on the more chronically sun-exposed areas of the body. Information on the type and body-site distribution of skin lesions can aid in the diagnosis and planned management of skin cancer and other skin lesions commonly presented in primary care.